All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.
Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.
Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 26th June, 2012…
Fight to the Death in the Arena:
Whilst Portugal’s recent competition record on neutral ground is impressive with six wins (54.5%) and two draws (18.2%) from 11 games since the start of Euro 2008, Spain’s stats in the same time period are simply stunning with 14 wins (73.7%) and three draws (15.8%) from their last 19 competitive neutral matches.
Looking at the scoring stats from these games the teams are closer, especially considering Spain have played almost twice as many games. Portugal have notched 20 and conceded nine (average 2.64 goals per match) (albeit skewed by a 7-0 thumping of North Korea during WC 2010), whilst Spain have racked up 29 and conceded seven (average 1.89 goals per match).
Spain have kept clean sheets in 17 (56.7%) of their last 30 competitive matches abroad, 13 of these on neutral ground. Portugal can only boast of 12 shutouts (40%) in their equivalent 30 games, with only five of these on neutral turf.
At half-time, Portugal’s last 30 competitive games abroad have seen 17 draws (56.7%); eight of these (72.7%) were on neutral ground (and six were by a 0-0 scoreline). Spain’s equivalent half-time record is 14 draws (46.7%); 11 of these (57.9%) on neutral territory (and 10 of these by a 0-0 scoreline). Therefore, in competitive games at neutral venues both teams seem to save their performances for the second halves of games.
Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:
Portugal’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 6.9.2006):
- Half-time Result – Portugal wins: 8 (26.7%); Draws: 17 (56.7%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
- Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-D-W-D-D-L
- Both teams scoring: No = 16 times (53.3%)
Portugal’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 6.9.2006):
- Half-time Result – Portugal wins: 2 (18.2%); Draws: 8 (72.7%); Defeats: 1 (9.1%)
- Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-D-L-D-D-D
- Both teams scoring: No = 7 times (63.6%)
Spain’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 14.6.2008):
- Half-time Result – Spain wins: 13 (43.3%); Draws: 14 (46.7%); Defeats: 2 (10%)
- Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): W-D-W-D-W-W
- Both teams scoring: No = 19 times (63.3%)
Spain’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 14.6.2008):
- Half-time Result – Spain wins: 6 (31.6%); Draws: 11 (57.9%); Defeats: 2 (10.5%)
- Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): W-D-W-D-D-D
- Both teams scoring: No = 15 times (78.9%)
Identified Value Bets:
This is another big game that has been analysed by the masses to such an extent that there is little ‘value’ to be exploited in any of the markets.
- Value Betting Tip 1: Laying the draw at full-time is a good wager to consider at 3.4. The draw ‘back’ price should be 5.41 and the value to be gained is therefore 59% with a probability of winning the lay bet at 81.5%.
- Value Betting Tip 2: Back Half-time Result = Draw (Odds: 2.1; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.71; Probability: 58.5%). Both team’s stats suggest they are ‘2nd half’ teams so we are taking advantage of the market’s pricing ‘error’ here.
- Value Betting Tip 3: Back Both Teams To Score: “No” (Odds: 1.78; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.54; Probability: 64.8%). A slightly higher probability bet reflecting how close this game will probably be.
Bet LOST
Bet WON
Bet WON
FT – Portugal 0-0 Spain
HT – Portugal 0-0 Spain
(Spain won 4-2 on penalties, after extra time)
We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.
- Forward to next match analysis: 28th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Germany v Italy
- Back to previous match analysis: 24th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – England v Italy
