Nonetheless, Soccerwidow still receives a considerable number of direct visits, which means our loyal readers continue to check for updates and new content.

This article is for you, our dedicated supporters.
 

A New Chapter Begins

We are thrilled to announce the revamping of our website and the launch of a new subdomain: shop.soccerwidow.com. The Soccerwidow team has been hard at work to make this new space more user-friendly, visually appealing, and organized for our loyal readers.

We listened to your feedback and implemented changes to improve navigation and give the site a fresh look. We believe you’ll find our revamped store a more enjoyable and efficient shopping experience.
 

Explore Our Enhanced Shop

As you explore shop.soccerwidow.com, you’ll discover our carefully curated selection of products designed to support your sports betting journey.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, our range of resources is tailored to help you develop your skills and make informed decisions. We’re committed to continuously enhancing our offerings and providing exceptional value to our readers.
 

 
 

Shape the Future of Soccerwidow

With the launch of our revamped store, we want to make sure we continue to meet and exceed the expectations of our dedicated readers. That’s why we’re eager to hear your feedback about the new shop and any suggestions for how Soccerwidow can develop in the future.

Our aim is to create an experience tailored to your needs and interests, and your input is invaluable in achieving that goal.

As a token of our appreciation, we’re excited to offer our readers an exclusive opportunity.

During this event, we’ll discuss the future of Soccerwidow, unveil exciting updates, and engage in a live Q&A session with our team.

This event is our way of showing appreciation for your continued support and giving you a unique opportunity to shape the future of Soccerwidow.
 

Our Humble Beginnings and the Path Forward

It’s been over a decade since Soccerwidow was born out of the personal football frustration of its founder. Soccerwidow’s Bloke, her husband, spent the entirety of 2010 glued to the TV watching English football, even while they lived in the beautiful, adventure-filled Uganda. This experience in Uganda inspired Soccerwidow to create the Soccerwidow blog, with a mission to make football matches less exciting for her husband through accurate analyses and predictions.

That was the past…

Soccerwidow has since evolved into a platform that empowers bettors worldwide through education, resources, and tools.

Soccerwidow is a mission to demystify bookmaker maths and revolutionise sports betting education. We strongly believe that the more informed bettors become, the fewer gambling-addicted individuals there will be in the world.
 

 
 

By providing comprehensive knowledge and insights, we aim to help bettors make more informed decisions and, ultimately, minimise the risks associated with gambling. When bettors understand the underlying mechanics of sports betting, they can approach it more strategically, reducing the likelihood of developing unhealthy gambling habits.

Soccerwidow’s goal is to foster a community of responsible, well-informed bettors who can enjoy the excitement of sports betting without falling into the trap of addiction.
 

Thank You for Your Support

Your support has been the driving force behind Soccerwidow’s success, and we can’t thank you enough for sticking with us through thick and thin. We hope you enjoy exploring the new shop at shop.soccerwidow.com and attending our exclusive online event. We look forward to hearing your feedback and suggestions and are eager to continue learning and growing with you.

Together, let’s embark on this exciting journey to shape the future of Soccerwidow and redefine sports betting education. We’re confident that, with your help, we’ll achieve new heights. Don’t forget to leave a comment on this article to secure your invitation to our exclusive online event.
 

A Sneak Peek at the Exclusive Online Event

During the online event, you can expect to:

1. Gain insights into upcoming features and improvements on the Soccerwidow platform.
2. Learn about our new educational initiatives and how they will benefit you in your sports betting journey.
3. Have a chance to ask questions and provide feedback directly to the Soccerwidow team.
4. Network with fellow sports betting enthusiasts and share your experiences, tips, and strategies.
5. Participate in exclusive giveaways and contests for event attendees.

We can’t wait to share these exciting updates with you and hear your thoughts on the future of Soccerwidow.

Remember to leave a comment on this article to secure your invitation to this exclusive event. See you there!

But which staking plan is the best?

The answer is: A simple and straightforward staking plan. Nothing complicated; just plump for flat staking with or without a ratcheting mechanism.

All other staking plans contain one or another problem and I can guarantee that there is definitely not a single staking method in existence, which makes a failing betting system work.

Therefore, firstly work out a sound betting system and then secondly, adhere to a modest and plain staking plan. Keep the money management as simple as possible because it is already difficult enough to keep up with everything that goes into monitoring a betting system. You will perhaps also have to think about juggling your bank between various bookmakers and exchanges if needs be.

In today’s article I’m going to show you a fuss-free staking plan using the example of our 2017-18 Winter League portfolio .

As mentioned, it’s a combination of a flat staking plan and a ratcheting mechanism.

A Definite Edge and a Sound Staking Plan Work Wonders!

With the help of our HDAFU Tables and, in particular, their Inflection Point graphs, it is now easy to develop a portfolio of bets with a definite mathematical edge.

And in conjunction with our chosen staking plan, the portfolio of 2017-18 Winter Leagues performed as follows:

Image 1: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit Curve with Ratcheting

We started with a betting bank of 4,000 units and finished after 47 weeks and 518 bets with a total 38,925 units.

Of course, it wasn’t a smooth ride the whole time. Especially at the start of the season, the first 15 weeks (up to 27/10/2017) were very tough. 153 bets were placed but the result was pretty much a zero sum game. It did eventually rise to 5,562, but for all the time invested and work performed it was quite a frustrating experience.

From this point until the end of December, results were better and the ratcheting system helped the bank up to 13,792 units. But then another rough period started.

Nevertheless, it was worth it! A very long slog (47 weeks!) for a profit of 34,925 units. A great result vindicating the soundness of both the portfolio of bets and its staking plan.

Just as a side note, if you want to learn more about how the portfolio was originally compiled and how it performed in detail then you will find our report here: System Football Betting: 2017-18 Winter League Report – 35k in 138 Days

But let’s get back to the topic of the article: proper staking…

Image 1 showed you the performance of the portfolio using ratcheting, but if we would have applied a flat staking plan only (without ratcheting), then the Profit/Loss curve would have looked like this:

Image 2: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit Curve Flat Stakes

You can see straight away that the simple flat stakes (without ratcheting) also produces profits, but the curve is much flatter – here, the betting bank only increases from 4,000 units to 13,909 units. Flat staking lacks the exponential element of a ratcheting system to grow a bank, but on the other hand, it is much easier on the nerves as I will show you later in this article.

But first here are a few definitions…

What is Flat Staking?

Flat staking simply means that you wager on every bet exactly the same amount of money, without any deviations. But this may include some consideration towards the risk of each bet. You may therefore wish to stagger your stakes according to the implied probability (odds) of winning each bet:

• VERY SIMPLE: decide to stake a flat 100 units on every bet in the portfolio.
• SIMPLE: decide to stake a flat 100 units on bets with odds below 1.50, 50 units on bets with odds between 1.50 and 2.50, and so on.

But whichever of the two options you choose, you are in effect still ‘flat staking’.

What is Ratcheting?

Ratcheting is a progressive money management approach where the size of the stakes move by degrees, upward or downward, depending upon results.

(A) If your portfolio wins, increase the stakes!

With ratcheting the stakes are variable and depend on the size of the bank. However, the percentage of the ratchet (in our case 2.5%) always remains constant.

If at the end of a round of matches (or week) your bank has grown, all bets placed the following week should be adjusted to the higher bank.

For example, if the bank increases from 4,000 to 4,500, the stake increases from a flat 100 units to 112.50 per bet in the following round (i.e. stake remains at the base level set of 2.5% of bank).

The percentage of the bank used per bet stays ‘flat’.

(B) If your portfolio loses, reduce the stakes!

Nevertheless, you also need to guard against bankruptcy. If your portfolio experiences a losing round, reduce the stakes for each bet but not before the bank drops to 75% (or below) of its highest point.

You may think that this method is simply a stop-loss strategy, but it isn’t quite the same. I will explain further down in the article why we used 75% as the margin for our downwards ratcheting and not any other number.

Should you lose at the end of a round (week), continue to play each bet with the same, unchanged stake until the bank’s previous high has shrunk by 25%.

This means that in the event of a short-term loss, the stake continues to refer to the bank at the highest level it has reached so far and does not adjust to the lower bank until the bank has dropped to 75% of its peak size.

Only then is the stake recalculated (reduced) and the ratchet process begins again.

To be clear on this point, in the event of a run of losses, the stake size per bet always remains in relation to the highest bank to date and should not decrease until the threshold of 75% of highest bank ever is reached. (If you have for example, a very bad start to a campaign, the 75% trigger point may well apply to your starting bank).

Only then will the stakes be adjusted (reduced) to this lower bank size. This will then be your new starting bank. All further bets from then on refer to this bank and the ratcheting process begins again.

Example 1:

The bank drops from 4,000 to 3,800: The stakes remain unchanged, flat 100.00 (= 2.5% of the starting bank of 4,000) for the next period (round/ week).

After the next round the bank closes with 3,520. Still, the stakes remain unchanged, flat 100.00, using the previous bank of 4,000 for its calculations.

Only if the bank closes with under 3,000 (75% of 4,000) will the stake sizes be recalculated.


Example 2:

Using the starting bank from our previous example, the bank has dropped to 2,800. This has now become the new starting bank and the stake is recalculated:

2,800 x 2.5% = 70.00

With the reduction of over 75% of the bank from its former highest level of 4,000 (100 unit stakes) to 2,800, the stake size is recalibrated and remains flat at 70 units.

Afterwards, if the bank starts to rise, you will need to begin increasing the stakes again.

Say, after the next round you bank has gone up to 3,150.

3,150 x 2.5% = 78.75

The adjusted ‘new’ stake is now 78.75 and remains in place until either the bank drops to 75% of 3,150 (2,362) or the bank grows above 3,150, when stake amounts will be 2.5% of the new, larger bank size.

Flat Staking vs. Ratcheting

We have seen that ratcheting is purely a method of ‘flexible flat staking’ to encourage exponential bank growth.

The idea is to start off with stakes of 100 units and, if everything goes according to plan, by the end of the season the stake sizes should hopefully be in the multiples of 100 units.

Looking at the other side of the coin, the losses during this time will be in the same proportions, and not everyone is comfortable when losing a few thousand units in an afternoon, even if its ‘just winnings’ from previous rounds.

Bear this in mind before you decide to try ratcheting. Are you a disciplined person? Are you able to function when you have a few thousand riding on a few matches?

If your answer to these questions is ‘no’, then please do yourself a favour and stick to flat staking only! Do not try ratcheting, at least not to the end, and stop increasing your stakes when you reach the limits of your comfort zone (or have achieved target).

Bank Development during Rough Periods

Even the soundest portfolio of bets will experience bad periods where one bet after another (or even one round after another) is losing. It happened to us from the 09/12/2017 (2017 week 50) – 11/03/2018 (2018 week 11). Three months of more losing rounds than winning ones! Tough indeed!

Here are two images that show the profits/losses together with the bank development during this rough period using flat stakes versus ratcheting:

Image 3: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Using Flat Stakes only

Image 4: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Ratcheting the Stakes

Both staking plans produced profits but, to put the choppy ride into even better perspective, you will need to note that the results summarised in Image 4 were by this time already based on a ratcheted bet size of 344.80 units (as at 09/12/2017), and this has grown to 707.82 units by 11/03/2018.

The period spanned more than 15 weeks with nine losing rounds (60%). From the 23/12/2017 – 12/01/2018 there were many losses, not huge, but enough to be nerve-racking!

The biggest losing round of bets with flat staking was: – 578
The biggest losing round of bets with ratcheting was: – 4,091

Tough! This again highlights the difference in volatility between flat staking and ratcheting. Steel hearts only required here!

However:

The biggest profit round with flat staking was: 1,785
The biggest profit round with ratcheting was: 6,155

Great! But please don’t get carried away too much!

Moral #1: If you are a person that finds it challenging to keep emotions under control, stick to flat stakes! The best laid plans fall to pieces if you can’t cope during the really rough times.

It is always better to be a modest winner than a brave loser.

Emotional Rollercoaster when Winning or Losing

In the previous section you saw the monetary effects of winning and losing when using flat stakes only or when ratcheting. However, the differences become even more obvious if you look at the profits/losses in relation to the bank:

Image 5: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit/Losses in relation to the bank: Flat Stakes

When staking flat our example portfolio only produced a maximum loss of – 8.1 % of the bank. The winnings too were pretty ‘modest’: a maximum of 20.7%.

Ratcheting involves a far greater rollercoaster. The maximum loss was as high as – 15.2 % of the bank. The maximum winnings were: 52.6%.

Image 6: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit/Losses in relation to the bank: Ratcheting

Moral #2: As I have already said, simple flat stakes (without ratcheting) are much easier on the nerves than ratcheting. The exponential growth a ratcheting system produces goes hand-in hand with exponential losses.

Stop-Loss Margin when Ratcheting

In the article Bank Management & Stake Size I explained the ‘scientific’ calculation of the percentage of starting bank that should be used for betting.

It was based on the average of the three largest losing rounds (weeks):
12%, 15.2% and 14.6% >>> average: 13.9% (rounded: 14%).

We can use this figure of 14% to calculate the stop-loss margin. You see, everything is somehow connected. The stake size, the stop-loss margin, and much more.

To be able to sit through a run of at least two losing rounds in a row where the bank is depleted by 14% each time you need to calculate as follows:

86% x 86% = 73.96%

Let’s round this up to 75% to be more risk averse (safety conscious).

Hence, if your portfolio loses, reduce the stakes but not before the bank drops to 75%. It is very unlikely to happen but it may, you never know. By the way, our bank didn’t drop a single time below the 75% threshold during the Winter League 2017-18 Campaign.

Please bear in mind that all the calculations and explanations are based on a portfolio of just over 500 bets with an expected hit rate of around 50%. Should your portfolio be different (no two are alike), then you will need to carry out all the calculations using your own figures.

If you cannot calculate this for yourself in such great detail then either stick to the 75% threshold, or perhaps lower it to 65% (if you have a lower risk aversion) as advised in previous articles.

Moral #3: Better to be safe than sorry. If you are new to ratcheting it’s probably better if you play with smaller stakes than the calculations actually permit (e.g. 1.5% of your betting bank instead of 2.5%) then you won’t reach the stop-loss margin too quickly.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this article and learned something about sound staking and ratcheting. However, if you are still unsure on any point, please feel free to ask any questions via the comment section below.

In July 2020, after the first wave of the coronavirus, when most of the leagues resumed their games Soccerwidow performed a public experiment to see whether old statistics could be still used and if the Over/Under Betting coursebook remained potent.

If you followed our live experiment last year with real money then you would have increased your starting bank by over 50% in just 25 betting days.

Now, many months have passed and the leagues have just about returned to their regular schedules, albeit without fans in most stadiums. What is quite obvious to all observers, as well as punters, is that there are now more away wins than previously: ‘home advantage’ seems to have shrunk.

But what about the goals?

Spain soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

Poland soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

Italy soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

EPL soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

BL1 soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

Above are the statistics for the four leagues we tested in our portfolio last summer: Italy, Spain, Poland and the EPL. These were four randomly chosen leagues and our campaign covered the last six weeks of the respective seasons.

This time we are adding the German Bundesliga 1. Firstly, because the BILD (the German broadsheet newspaper) is going to publish our picks on its website and secondly, to allow our course buyers (who are in the possession of the German Bundesliga Cluster Table courtesy of their purchase) to follow the calculations and reasoning.

This season’s campaign will again follow the last six weeks of each featured league and we will once again concentrate on Over/Under selections using our Cluster Tables.

The rules of engagement are the same as last time (for comparison purposes) and are explained a little further down in this article.

What’s pretty obvious this season is that in many leagues the ‘home advantage’ seems to have suffered due to the empty stadiums. Apart from the Bundesliga, the other four leagues, Poland, Spain, Italy and the EPL, have seen considerably fewer home wins than in the previous season – for example, a drop of 17.8% in the EPL thus far.

However, despite the shift in the home and away wins the total goals per match have hardly changed. Italy so far this season is down just -0.7% of goals, Spain -0.4%, Poland -2.7% and the EPL -2.2%. The highest change in the observed goals per match is in the German Bundesliga: -6.9%, although they have exactly the same number of home wins as the previous season.

What is interesting here is that the Bundesliga home goals per match do not show a high deviation – only -3.6% – but the away goals scored per match have dropped by -11.0%. In the other leagues, except in Italy, the away teams are currently scoring more goals on average.

Whatever the reason is for these changes it cannot be solely down to the missing crowds at games. It’s truly fascinating – just have a look at the numbers in the above graphs and make your own conclusions.

Slideshow Picks

The picks for the respective day will appear here around 1 p.m. (sometimes earlier) as well as the results of the previous matchday. For the German audience, the picks are also published by the BILD, so no one will be able to tell us that we don’t publish our picks in advance! 🙂

You may have to press the F5 button to refresh this page if you don’t see the picks for the day. However, please note that there won’t be picks on every day as not every day of the week has qualifying matches.

Sadly, we have had to suspend our live experiment in association with Bild.de on 5th May 2021 after just 18 rounds of games. We were spending an awful amount of time compiling the data and making the picks entirely for free. Bild.de was using the novelty of a female pundit (yours truly) to attract readership and to entice them into buying subscriptions for the full version of its website. Indeed, every Soccerwidow featured article on Bild was attracting between 20-50,000 views each. Yet, an organisation as large and as powerful as Bild was arrogant enough to take our work for free with no guarantee of payment at the end of it. Apparently, we were supposed to be grateful for the exposure we received as a result of having our hard work taken advantage of. Sorry Bild, but that’s not the way to build lasting associations or bonds with your business partners… We are off to spend our time on more fruitful labours!

Day 18 Picks & Results: 2021.05.03

Odds from (and published on SW): 23:22 GMT+1, 2nd May

Day 17 Picks & Results: 2021.05.02

Odds from (and published on SW): 23:08 GMT+1, 1st May

Day 16 Picks & Results: 2021.05.01

Odds from (and published on SW): 22:02 GMT+1, 30th April

Day 15 Picks & Results: 2021.04.30

Odds from (and published on SW): 10:06 GMT+1, 30th April

Day 14 Picks & Results: 2021.04.26

Odds from (and published on SW): 10:47 GMT+1, 26th April

Day 13 Picks & Results: 2021.04.25

Odds from (and published on SW): 21:54 GMT+1, 24th April

Day 12 Picks & Results: 2021.04.24

Odds from (and published on SW): 22:24 GMT+1, 23rd April

Day 11 Picks & Results: 2021.04.23

Odds from (and published on SW): 09:47 GMT+1, 23rd April

Day 10 Picks & Results: 2021.04.22

Odds from (and published on SW): 09:41 GMT+1, 22nd April

Day 09 Picks & Results: 2021.04.21

Odds from (and published on SW): 14:11 GMT+1, 21st April

Day 08 Picks & Results: 2021.04.20

Odds from (and published on SW): 17:58 GMT+1, 19th April

Day 07 Picks & Results: 2021.04.18

Odds from (and published on SW): 21:49 GMT+1, 17th April

Day 06 Picks & Results: 2021.04.17

Odds from (and published on SW): 12:25 GMT+1, 17th April

Day 05 Picks & Results: 2021.04.16

Odds from (and published on SW): 18:25 GMT+1, 15th April

Day 04 Picks & Results: 2021.04.12

Odds from (and published on SW): 12:58 GMT+1, 12th April
Next Picks due 16/04/2021

Day 03 Picks & Results: 2021.04.11

Odds from (and published on SW): 22:09 GMT+1, 10th April

Day 02 Picks & Results: 2021.04.10

Odds from (and published on SW): 10:37 GMT+1, 10th April

Day 01 Picks & Results: 2021.04.09

Odds from (and published on SW): 09:12 GMT+1, 9th April

*Best (Odds): The odds at the time the picks were made/published


The expected probability and zero odds are calculated exactly as described in the coursebook using the Cluster Tables.

The original selection criteria was:

1. the chance to win the bet has a Probability between 60% and 80%, and
2. the expected Yield is between -15% and 30%
3. the Profitability of the bet is between -50% and 95%
4. the Disparity of goals between the home and away team is between -25% and 30%

According to this season’s statistics so far, the following additional rules were to be applied:

• ITALY >> Avoiding ‘Over 2.5’ bets
• SPAIN >> ‘Over 1.5 goal’ will be preferred even if they have a negative value
• POLAND >> Under Bets will be preferred
• EPL >> Under Bets will be preferred
• BL1 >> Being careful to place Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 bets

If all the above criteria were applied and there were 2 bets to choose from, then the last knock-out criteria were:

• bet has a positive value, and if not,
• the bet with the lowest negative value in the 60% – 80% cluster is selected
• only 1 bet per match is selected

HOWEVER…

After the first four betting days, our bank reduced by almost 25%.

Rather than waiting for the stop loss margin (60% of the bank) to check the stake amounts and prevent total loss of the bank, we reappraised the portfolio and changed the selection rules with effect from 16th April 2021 (betting day 5).

We are no longer concentrating exclusively on the 60-80% probability range.

We will now focus on two specific ranges of over/under options: from OVER 1.5 goals to OVER 5.5 and UNDER 3.5 goals to UNDER 0.5 (0:0).

If there are two bets with a very similar probability in a single game, such as O 1.5 and U 3.5, both will be played with the stake evenly distributed between them. (For example, if the higher odds option represents 2.5% of the bank, then this amount is split 1.25% on one result and 1.25% on the other).

If there are several qualifying bets in a single game, for example, O 1.5 – O 2.5 – O 3.5 – O 4.5 – O 5.5, all bets that contain value are played. In this case, we will stick to the maximum stake of the bet with the highest probability and split this equally between all of the bets.

With this approach, more bets with higher odds will enter into the scope of the portfolio – for example, Under 0.5 and Over 5.5 goals.

Here is an example calculation of a bet that would have gone really well:

The basis for calculating the stakes has changed from this:

• Odds up to 1.1: 5% from the bank
• Odds between 1.1 – 1.16: 4% from the bank
• Odds between 1.16 – 1.39: 3.8% from the bank
• Odds between 1.4 – 2.25: 2.5% from the bank
• Odds between 2.25 – 7.50: 1.5% from the bank
• Odds over 7.50: 0.5% from the bank

…To this with effect from 16th April 2021:

• Over 1.5 Goals = 3.5% of bank
• Over 2.5 Goals = 2.5% of bank
• Over 3.5 Goals = 1.5% of bank
• Over 4.5 Goals = 1.0% of bank
• Over 5.5 Goals = 0.5% of bank
• Under 0.5 Goals = 0.5% of bank
• Under 1.5 Goals = 1.0% of bank
• Under 2.5 Goals = 1.5% of bank
• Under 3.5 Goals = 2.5% of bank

Stakes are always rounded up to the nearest whole number.

However, not only are the stakes calculated according to the risk but a ratchet system will also be applied. This means that the stakes increase with each round in accordance with the highest bank total achieved and remain at that level even if the bank then decreases again. The stakes are only reduced if the bank reduces to 60% of the starting bank (i.e. starting bank loses 40%).

Starting Bank (at the start of the experiment on April 9, 2021): 3,000.00
Highest Bank (9th April 2021): 3,000.00
Bank will increase each day if there are winnings; bank for calculating stakes will only reduce when it drops below 1.600,00 (60% of starting bank).

Duration of the Experiment

The first pick is due on Friday 9th April 2021 and we will continue until the end of the seasons in our five selected leagues.

So, we are looking to cover seven full weekends and the midweek games in-between them. Whether we continue publishing picks using Summer Leagues thereafter will be decided at a later date.

Important information about the risk!

Even if we trust our own coursebook and cluster tables and are pretty sure that the published picks will lead to a profit, we urge you to play it safe by not risking more money than you can afford to lose.

Please stick to the above staking plan and do not carry out any experiments with the staking. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you and increase stakes if there is a good spell going on. And please don’t chase any losses if there are a few bad days in a row. Please always remember that we are playing statistics and that they never line up in a regular manner.

It is interesting to see that the total goals in the games haven’t really changed despite the fluctuations of home and away wins but what we do not know for sure is whether the Cluster Tables, which are based on the statistics of the last five full seasons of the teams involved, are robust enough to cope with this change.

Therefore, we urge you once more, be careful! Should you follow our picks with real money, then please stake only what you are prepared to lose and stick strictly to the staking plan!!!

Fingers crossed that things go our way again!
Enjoy & share, Your Soccerwidow

The experiment was prompted by the outbreak of the coronavirus and the fact that many leagues suspended their games for a period of a few months and afterwards resumed in empty stadiums. We wanted to see whether historical statistics could still be used and what could be observed after this unexpectedly long break.

The General Outcome of 25 Betting Rounds and 77 Bets

The bank grew from an initial figure of 3,000.00 units to an impressive total of 4,617.56 using ratcheted stakes during the course of just one month.

It was very pleasing to see that the Cluster Tables performed so reliably well despite the coronavirus outbreak and the consequent very long pauses in our featured leagues:

Table 1: Corona experiment July-August 2020
Profit/Loss graph after 25 rounds

During this 33-day period a total of 77 bets were placed within the 60% to 80% probability range.

Here’s the distribution of those bets and the Profit/Loss achieved split into clusters of 2% probability increments:

Table 2: July-August 2020 – Over/Under experiment P/L results graph by Probability

From the above chart, you can see that all but one of these clusters produced a profit. However, the number of bets varied in each cluster. For example, there were four bets with a probability between 60% and 62%, and nine bets in the 62% to 64% cluster, and so on.

77 bets is a very small sample size and this becomes even smaller when trying to form conclusions about each of the 2% clusters. However, this is a practical way of maintaining control if you are using the Cluster Tables for your own betting.

Indeed, for monitoring purposes, we recommend that you do sort your bets in small probability clusters and judge the synergy of your portfolio on the basis of its entire performance. You will find it easier to make decisions if there are obvious areas that are letting down the results.

How the Bets were Chosen

The bets were chosen using our Cluster Table tools that are the product of our coursebook teachings. With these tables, you can very quickly determine the expected probabilities of Over/Under bets for any forthcoming match involving the featured teams (i.e. only those playing in at least their sixth consecutive season in that league – identified in the tables).

To help explain how the bets were chosen, here’s an example using the very last pick of our experiment:
Sassuolo vs. Udinese on 02/08/2020

Below is an extract from the Cluster Table used to make this pick:

Table 3: Calculating the Over/Under bets
Sassuolo vs. Udinese 02/08/2020

Sassuolo was the favourite to win the game at odds of 1.95; Udinese was the underdog at odds of 3.84 (odds taken at 06:57 GMT+1 on the day of the match).

With these odds, the HO/AO quotient was calculated:

Using the 2019/20 Cluster Table for Italy, the over and under probabilities for Sassuolo home matches and for Udinese away matches were found using the appropriate HO/AO cluster containing the value of 0.5078.

These percentages were then copied into an extra ‘helper’ spreadsheet (i.e. the two top lines of the tables on the left).

Using the two probability percentages collected from both teams, the average was calculated (Over 0.5 bets example):

This percentage was then converted into the expected Zero odds:

This process was then repeated for all Over/Under bets.

The third line of our helper spreadsheet is for manual entering of the market odds being offered for these bets.

As we were limiting ourselves during the experiment to bets within the 60% to 80% cluster, there was no difficulty choosing the bets for this particular match as there was only one visible within this probability cluster. The bet ‘Under 2.5 goals’ with a probability to win of 68.2% (corresponding Zero odds: 1.47) was being offered at outstandingly good odds of 3.10.

By the way, this bet won as the match ended in a 0:1 result. Of course, there was an element of ‘luck’ involved as on paper it also had a 31.8% probability of losing. Also, the expected ‘Profitability’ as well as the expected ‘Yield’ were artificially high, which would normally have led us to dismiss this bet as viable.

I will summarise these two very important considerations next in the article but if you wish to understand the concepts of profitability and yield in more detail, buying and working through the coursebook is your only option. It simply is too vast a subject to summarise in an article and is not the sort of information I wish to give away for free

Further Reading:
How to Use Soccerwidow’s Over/Under Betting Cluster Tables
5 Simple Steps to Win Over and Under Betting

Profitability (Value I)

Profitability is the relation of profit/loss to the money spent. In other words, profitability is an index for measuring financial success (operational profit) in relation to the costs (money spent) of running the venture.

When applied to gambling, profitability measures betting proficiency in relation to its expenses.

Profitability Formula:

If you wish to learn a little more about what profitability in betting means, here’s an article with the definitions and some example calculations: Stake, Yield, Return on Investment (ROI), Profitability – Definitions and Formulas

The nice thing is that it is actually possible to predict the expected profitability if you have calculated the Zero odds and know the market odds of the bet you are thinking of placing.

You can see the results of these calculations in Table 3 (Sassuolo vs. Udinese calculations) in the row below the market odds. Try to come up with these numbers yourself!

Of course, all these calculations are about probabilities and a future outcome; they aren’t set in stone and results always come with a deviation. I cannot dive deeper into the matter of deviation at this stage but once again recommend the coursebook, where you will find almost a third devoted to explaining this quite difficult topic in step-by-step detail.

However, what we will look at here is the graph of the distribution of Profit and Losses from our Over/Under experiment by expected Profitability.

For those of you who didn’t follow the experiment as it progressed… During July 2020 we published almost daily Over/Under picks with probabilities between 60% and 80%.

Often, there would be only one bet apparent in this cluster (like in the example Sassuolo vs. Udinese) and we would choose this bet without taking any ‘value’ into consideration or worrying about the expected ‘Profitability’ or expected ‘Yield’.

Indeed, the profitability and yield might have carried negative values, but the picks would still be included in our portfolio and published.

The reason for this is that when you calculate Zero odds and consider the deviation, the market odds may be higher or lower but still be ‘fair’.

It seems like a paradox but having negative ‘value’ attached to a bet calculation doesn’t mean that it is a bet without ‘value’.

Table 4: July 2020 – Over Under experiment P/L results graph by expected Profitability

You can see from the graph above that at its beginning the P/L curve wanders around the -200 mark and then starts rising. The starting point for the rise is around 95% and it stops at -40%. This can be used as a knock-out criteria when selecting bets to place:

Advice for those of you who are actively using the Cluster Tables for investment purposes…

If you wish to play a similar system to the picks showcased in our experiment, then please choose your bets by sticking religiously to the 60% to 80% probability cluster and use the expected Profitability as a knock-out criterion.

If you have only one bet in this probability cluster, and it carries an artificially high profitability value like the one shown in this article (Sassuolo vs. Udinese U2.5 goals), then you need to make the tough decision whether or not to play the bet or leave it alone.

Yield (Value II)

Yield is the Profit/Loss ratio applied to the total capital employed (total staked). When applied to gambling, Yield measures betting effectiveness compared to total turnover. (The interest received from securities, i.e. stakes)

Yield Formula:

In football betting, any yield over 7% is considered to be a very good result. Be careful when you hear people talk about their betting strategies or offering betting systems for sale with a high yield. This is intended to impress the reader, but a high yield is always an indication of high-risk strategies employed!

Like with the expected profitability in the section above, it is also possible to calculate the expected yield simply by having calculated the Zero odds and knowing the market odds.

Please have another look at Table 3 (Sassuolo vs. Udinese calculations) in the row below the Profitability. Again, see if you can match these figures with your own formulas or calculations.

Once again, high yield systems mean high risk. Usually, you will need to play many bets to move forwards with systems of this nature. The reason is simple: High risk means low probability and that means a very irregular distribution of winning bets – and lots of losers along the way!

You can see this for yourself in the graph below, which represents the experiment’s distribution of Profit and Losses by expected Yield:

Table 5: July 2020 – Over Under experiment P/L results graph by expected Yield

You’ll see from the curve that expected Yield over 30% didn’t produce any profits and neither did an expected Yield below -15%. That there even was a negative expected Yield is because of deviation.

This factor can be used as a second knock-out criteria when choosing bets:

Advice for those who actively use our Cluster Tables…

Don’t take our guidance here as gospel. Of course, you can choose whichever probability clusters suit your personal acceptance of risk. You don’t need to stick religiously to the 60% to 80% range that we used in this public experiment.

But, ideally, what you then need to do is to select only matches in your chosen clusters (you can do this retrospectively) and analyse their performance by expected Profitability as well as expected Yield. In doing this, you should then be able to build your own knock-out criteria and adjust accordingly.

I really hope you enjoyed this article and learnt something along the way. Please don’t hesitate to ask any questions in the comment section below.

Lastly, keep faith in statistics! Despite the pandemic, every league will continue playing on a professional level and hence, past statistics can be applied to predict future performance. How else do you think bookmakers set their odds?

Note:
And if you need further incentive to investigate our Cluster Tables further, don’t forget that the 169-page Odds Calculation coursebook comes with a free German Bundesliga Cluster Table. Buy the coursebook, snap up a bargain in the process, and begin betting on the over/under markets straightaway!

Since the 1st July, we have been running a live picks experiment using systems selected from our HDAFU Tables to see if Covid-19 is affecting results one way or another.

As of Sunday, 2nd August 2020, a total of 91 picks had been published in advance of kick-off times in four different ‘summer’ leagues.

The HDAFU systems chosen are all 1st half-season systems only, with the experiment due to finish on the 26th of August when the latest scheduled of these, the Finnish Veikkausliiga, reaches its midway point.

The four leagues are:

• Finland Veikkausliiga (2x draw systems)
• Iceland Úrvalsdeild ~ AKA Pepsideild (1x draw system; 1x favourite win system)
• Norway Eliteserien (1x draw system; 1x home win system; 1x favourite win system)
• Sweden Allsvenskan (1x draw system; 1x favourite system)

Expectations for the portfolio as a whole were as follows:-

So far, from the expected number of 196 bets, 91 have been played (46.4%), with 36 winning (hit rate: 39.6%). The hit rate is minus 6.9% of expectations. Later in this article, we will see if we can identify a culprit (or culprits) in our chosen systems.

Betting Bank Development

The Portfolio Probability or average expected hit rate was 47.07%. This probability is very close to throwing a dice (i.e. 50/50) and, as with a dice roll, an element of luck is required to see your choice of heads or tails coming up more often than not.

Unfortunately, luck was not on our side as the experiment developed…

It did have a promising start and grew from 3,000.00 units (starting bank) to 3,213.54 units in the first four days before diving into a long run of unprofitable rounds. This illustrated in the following graph showing the running total:

After day four, the portfolio saw a losing streak of 11 betting rounds (rounds 5 to 15: July 5th to July 18th, 2020) taking the bank down to its lowest point of 2,177.79 units (67.8% of the highest bank), almost activating our Stop-Loss mechanism (set at 60% of starting bank), where stakes would have been reduced on future bets.

The ratchet system we used kept the stakes constant using the high-water mark of 3,213.65 units (i.e. highest point the bank reached) as the gauge against which to calculate our exposure on each bet. Read here for more explanations of what a ratcheted staking plan actually is: Sound Staking: Flat Stakes & Ratcheting

The ratcheting method of staking helped the bank to recover faster as soon as results once again began to go our way – it is now, after a truly bumpy ride, at a new high of 3,282.73.

Lesson #1: For those who use the HDAFU Tables for betting, sit tight and give yourself a chance! Do not give up too quickly! Continue religiously choosing the picks according to the criteria you set when choosing your systems. More often than not, your bank will eventually recover.

Always remember: You are playing statistics that behave randomly; your luck may come in big chunks of good or bad, or may be more regularly distributed.

System Performance Review

Of course, with the deep trough at the start of our portfolio, we went digging to see what may have been the root cause.

You can see in the graph below the nine different systems and the number of bets played as at August 2nd, 2020: e.g. Finland Draw (II) had 11 bets played at this date. The graph also compares the expected hit rates and the observed hit rates of each system.

Most of the systems have, after 26 betting rounds, achieved their expected hit rates.

The systems that have developed hit rates far below expectations are:-

• Sweden Allsvenskan: Favourite system
• Iceland Úrvalsdeild: Draw system & Favourite system

Below is a graph showing the Profit/Loss made by all nine systems after 26 match days:

As you can see from looking just at the observed hit rates, the ‘Favourite Win’ systems of Sweden and Iceland are producing deficits.

The Draw system in Iceland isn’t doing as bad and may even recover. But, we must be careful as the originally expected hit rate was low at 37.7% and from 11 expected bets five of these have already been played.

The main culprits that seem to be affecting the portfolio as a whole are obviously the ‘Favourite Win’ systems in Sweden and Iceland.

Nevertheless, it is too early to conclude that Covid-19 is affecting these systems, although it would be easy to associate the lack of crowds and thus, reduced home advantage, with the failure of these home win dominated systems. After all, the Norway ‘Favourite Win’ system is performing quite well.

To shuffle the pack, we will remove the two losing systems from our running total calculations and separate them from the other picks so we can monitor their progress in isolation. If you are following our Sweden and Iceland favourites with real money then perhaps hold fire for the time being and stick to the other seven systems.

Lesson #2: For those who use the HDAFU Tables for betting, review your systems once per month (or at least after every 100 bets)!

If you have obvious duds bringing the house down, don’t be afraid to remove them from your betting portfolio.

Of course, you can, if you wish, try to replace the losing systems with other systems. It doesn’t matter if you start and stop a system during the middle of any season: Starting or Pausing Your 1X2 Portfolio in the Middle of a Season

Since the 1st of July, we have been running an HDAFU Tables experiment on Soccerwidow, and a parallel Over/Under Goal betting experiment on our German-language sister site Fussballwitwe.de.

Whilst it is too early to say whether the HDAFU Tables will perform to expectations, the Over/Under picks are doing outstandingly well. The original starting bank of 3,000 increased by over 50% in 25 betting days.

Slideshow Picks

The picks for the respective day appeared here around 1 p.m. (sometimes earlier) as well as the results of the previous day.

Please click on the arrows to scroll through the entire history of the picks.

Below are all the picks that were published during the July 2020 Corona experiment (the 2019-20 Winter League seasons finished now). The bank grew from a starting point of 3,000.00 to impressive 4,617.56 during just one month. It was very pleasing to see that the statistics taught in the coursebook in combination with the Cluster Tables did so reliably well despite this Corona outbreak and very long breaks of the leagues.

Day 25 - Picks & results 2020.08.02

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 11:22 am

This last pick of the experiment was somewhat dodgy. There was actually far too much value in the bet but there wasn't any other bet in the 60% to 80% probability cluster for the day. The bet won! It proved one more time that probabilities don't lie.

Day 24 - Picks & results 2020.08.01

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 11:33 am

Day 23 - Picks & results 2020.07.29

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 10:51 am

Day 22 - Picks & results 2020.07.28

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 10:23 am

Day 21 - Picks & results 2020.07.26

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 09:26 am

I cautioned you as I published the picks... We were experiencing a pretty nice long winning streak with 8 winning bet in a row and from the 16 EPL picks in total there wasn't a single bet lost.

However, please remember that we are playing probabilities 60% to 80%. There must be the occasional bet that loses!

Do you remember? I was advising you that we were expecting a few losing bets.

Day 20 - Picks & results 2020.07.25

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 11:29 am

Day 19 - Picks & results 2020.07.24

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 10:19 am

Day 18 - Picks & results 2020.07.23

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 09:06 am

Day 17 - Picks & results 2020.07.22

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 14:07 pm

Day 16 - Picks & resuslts 2020.07.21

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 12:05 pm

Day 15 - Picks & results 2020.07.20

Odds from around 12:30 pm; published on SW at 13:27 pm

Day 14 - Picks & results 2020.07.19

Odds from the morning, around 10:45 am; picks published on SW at 13:04 pm

Day 13 - Picks & results 2020.07.16

Odds from the early morning, around 09:30 am; picks published on SW at 13:01 pm

Day 12 - Picks & results 2020.07.15

Day 11 - Picks & results 2020.07.13

Day 10 - Picks & results 2020.07.12

Day 9 - Picks & results 2020.07.11

Day 8 - Picks & results 2020.07.09

Day 7 - Picks & results 2020.07.08

Day 6 - Picks & results 2020.07.07

Day 5 - Picks & results 2020.07.06

Day 4 - Picks & results 2020.07.05

Day 3 - Picks & results 2020.07.04

Day 2 - Picks & results 2020.07.02

Day 1 - Picks & results 2020.07.01

The expected probability and zero odds are calculated exactly as described in the coursebook using the Cluster Tables. The selection criteria is:

1. if it has a minimum probability of 60%, and
2. if it has a positive value, and if not,
3. the bet with the lowest negative value in the 60% – 80% cluster is selected
4. only 1 bet per match is selected

The basis for calculating the stakes is the following risk adjustment

• Odds up to 1.1: 5% from the bank
• Odds between 1.1 – 1.16: 4% from the bank
• Odds between 1.16 – 1.39: 3.8% from the bank
• Odds between 1.4 – 2.25: 2.5% from the bank
• Odds between 2.25 – 7.50: 1.5% from the bank
• Odds over 7.50: 0.5% from the bank

Stakes are always rounded to the nearest whole number.

However, not only are the stakes calculated according to the risk but a ratchet system is also applied. This means that the stakes increase with each round in accordance with the highest bank total achieved and remain at the same level even if the bank then decreases again. The stakes are only reduced if the bank erodes to 60% of the starting bank (i.e. starting bank loses 40%).

Starting Bank (at the start of the experiment on July 1, 2020): 3,000
Highest Bank (25th July 2020): 4,729.44
Bank will increase each day if there are winnings; bank for calculating stakes will only reduce when it drops below 2837.66 (60% of starting bank).

Duration of the experiment

We all know that the coronavirus interrupted/paused the leagues for different lengths of time.

The EPL broke on March 9th and, after a 100-day break, started playing again on June 17th.

Italy also stopped on March 9th and started playing after a 103-day break on June 20th.

Poland suspended on March 13th; their break was only 81-days and they started playing again on May 29th. The league concluded on 19 July 2020 and all matches of 31–37 round have been played with “no more than 25 percent of the number of seats allocated to the public”.

Spain suspended on March 10th and started playing again since June 11th after a 93-day break. There were matches played nearly every day for 39 days – concluding on Sunday 19 July.

Each league will make up the lost time differently, however, the last game of this winter season is scheduled to be played on August 2nd. This will end our experiment. In summary, we are expecting from the 1st July until the close a total of 85 matches for cluster table betting.

Important information about the current risk!

Even if we trust our own coursebook and statistics and are actually pretty sure that the published picks will lead to a profit, we are currently playing safe by not risking real money on this experiment.

Just like everyone else at the moment, we can only guess what effect playing in empty stadiums will have on match results. Will home advantage be affected?

How do psychological factors affect results? Like all of us, the players were locked up in their houses for months and subjected to strict curfews.

Did everyone continue to train equally? What effect has this break on the fitness of the players?

There are currently so many questions and unknown factors that could potentially affect game results. Therefore, be careful! Should you follow our picks with real money, then please stake only as much as you can afford to lose and please adhere strictly to the staking plan!!!

Fingers crossed that things go our way!
Enjoy & share, Your Soccerwidow

What we know at the moment of writing is that the starts of the new league seasons in China, South Korea and Japan have been postponed. Many of Italy’s Serie A matches are currently being played in empty stadiums. Which leagues will follow suit?

The problem is that no-one truly knows in which direction things will develop. There is a great amount of uncertainty everywhere and the press is filled with reports about new outbreaks and rising numbers of infected people. It is no wonder that many of us feel a slight sense of panic creeping up.

But please remember, the Soccerwidow website is purely about numbers and we will, therefore, look at the statistics pragmatically (although always with a sympathetic nod to the growing situation).

Current Trends of the Coronavirus

As per 26th February 2020, some countries have started to mass test for the Covid-19 virus. At the time of writing, the UK had concluded 7,132 tests, 13 of which, were positive (0.2% positivity rate). Italy had concluded 9,462 tests, 470 of which, were positive (5.0% positivity rate). France has also been carrying out mass tests as well as Austria and the United States. No doubt more countries will follow.

The virus has the potential to reach pandemic levels and, therefore, every single country in this world is taking this threat very seriously and working very hard to reduce the risk faced by their populations in order to halt the spread of the virus.

Despite the apparent hysteria, as per the 26th of February…

[Source]

The Facts We Know About the Coronavirus

You can see from the numbers above that the risk of catching this virus is as low as it is to win the lottery and become a millionaire. It is a cold fact that there is a statistically lower chance of dying from Coronavirus than winning at least a million on the UK National Lottery.

Then Why Is There So Much Hype?

The really serious problem with this highly infectious virus is the very high amount of people (82%) that are carriers of this potentially deadly infection but don’t notice it because they don’t have any symptoms. That’s a real big problem because if not controlled it will lead to a massive spread of the virus and collapse the medical systems in the countries affected.

Hence, the very strong control measures that are currently being observed all over the world. And strong control measures include high public awareness and, therefore, mass-media press coverage. That’s simple cause and effect, a phrase you may be familiar with.

However, please remember that high-level press coverage doesn’t mean that the real risk is higher than the actual statistical numbers show.

Therefore, in my opinion, as a scholar of numbers, there is absolutely no need for panic (on a personal scale).

With all of the precautionary measures currently being put in place (closing schools, closing towns and even regions, limiting travel, self-isolation, putting places into quarantine, etc.), it is very unlikely that the virus will spread in an uncontrolled manner.

No Need for Any Panic. Life Will Go On as Usual!

I have been criticised for the title of this chapter but it is a cold fact that life will go on as usual, just with a few more precautions in place.

Look to The Facts We Know About the Coronavirus and, as per its date, just 0.0057% of China’s population is affected by Coronavirus, with the trend in decline. There is a sharp increase in cases outside of China and the two trends need to be analysed separately. For example, 0.0031% of South Korea’s population is affected by Coronavirus and, as harsh it may sound, these numbers will rise but are very unlikely to topple China’s figures.

Looking at all of this statistically, what can be probably said is that the maximum expectation is an infection of 0.01% of the population of any country and, the good news is that from these infected people, 82% will only suffer from very mild symptoms.

A maximum of 0.0018 % of a country’s population may come down with severe symptoms from this virus outbreak but probably far less.

0.0018% means that of 100,000 people there may be up to 2 cases. As stated previously, it is much more likely that you (or your favourite football player) will win a substantial amount on the UK National Lottery than suffer severe symptoms from Coronavirus.

There Shouldn’t Be Any Notable Effects on Match Results

Of course, all these quarantines and lock-downs do affect the economy and businesses but the psychological effects of the situation are probably worse.

However, please always keep in mind that professional football clubs are businesses and, like every other sound business, they will do everything possible to continue performing at the same high level as usual and not be affected by any virus outbreaks and panic.

In Italy, for example, many Serie A games have recently been played behind closed doors. However, there shouldn’t be any noticeable adverse effect on match results.

Do you remember the Japanese Tsunami in 2011 that caused a mighty number of 15,899 deaths? Although the league was halted after one round for seven weeks this pause had no effects on the statistical patterns of the J1 League during that season. And neither will Coronavirus; not in Japan or anywhere else.

Please be careful about making hasty judgements! At this stage, with comparatively low numbers of virus-related severe illnesses in each country, it is very unlikely that the virus will have any effect on the long-term outcome of a group of matches.

Currently, the newspapers are full every day with this topic (public awareness has to be raised! Newspapers have to be sold!) but please force yourself to think statistically and put everything into perspective.

Precaution and Risk Management

Please bear in mind that seasons always have the habit of starting somewhat unpredictably, with or without Coronavirus. It always takes six to eight rounds to start rolling ‘statistically correctly’. Just have a look at our League reports each season.

People who calculate matches individually, using the Value Calculator or the Coursebook and its Cluster Tables, should find that any effects of Coronavirus (if there are any) will be taken into account when following the calculations as usual. The odds offered will always be a measure of the possible outcomes whatever the extraneous circumstances may be.

System betters, using the HDAFU Tables, also don’t need to worry. There shouldn’t be any impact on the distribution of the results, neither for the 1st or 2nd half of season systems.

As a suggestion, perhaps pick your Summer League systems this year in a normal way but only monitor them for a while without committing big money. It doesn’t do any harm to start betting with real money a little bit later.

My general advice is: The first 6-8 weeks of every season always tends to be a bumpy ride, with or without something like Coronavirus in the background. There is no shame in abstaining from betting during this period and using the time for paper testing.

“I have a question for you since your strategy in the German Bundesliga was Underdog Whole Season, why do you show only Home Underdog bets in the system’s performance?”

So, why?

The answer is very simple: Because the HDAFU Tables identify Value Bet clusters. Although an HDAFU Table may be perceived as a ‘System Betting’ tool the most profitable historical betting clusters are the ones packed with Value Bets. And in the German Bundesliga, in the last five seasons (and beyond) these have mostly been home underdog bets.

It doesn’t matter which angle you approach betting from, to make a stable profit you must always ensure ‘value’ is on your side.

You may now ask Why do certain clusters of the HDAFU Tables contain Value Bets?

To shed light on this you really need to understand…

How do Bookmakers Set their Odds?

The bookmaker trade is a business aimed at making profits like any other business. Although they claim that their odds are ‘fair’ this doesn’t implicitly mean that their odds represent the ‘true’ probabilities of each event occurring.

Something classed as being ‘fair’ means only that it is carried out without wishing to cheat or to achieve an unjust advantage. However, it is neither ‘cheating’ nor ‘unjust advantage’ to optimise profits, is it? Otherwise, you could blame every profit-making company for setting ‘unfair’ prices only because they calculate with high-profit margins.

Take the example of a popular team like Bayern Munich. Playing at home, they win approximately 85% of their matches give or take every season. The ‘true’ average odds should, therefore, be in the region of 1.18 (1/85%). However, with the weight of money (the majority of bets being placed on the most probable winner), the bookmakers can reduce the odds on Bayern to win, say, to 1.15, increasing their profits in the long run, but still offering ‘fair’ odds on a match to match basis.

Of course, this also applies to Bayern’s away games. When playing away, Bayern wins approximately 65% of their matches, which in odds is 1.53 (1/65%). However, the average odds offered by the bookmakers for Bayern to win away are 1.44. That’s a clear and significant reduction. Are you with me?

Now, let’s dive a little bit deeper into odds calculation to help you understand what makes the HDAFU Tables so very special…

Changing One Side Affects the Other Side

To show you the above illustration in numbers we will look in more detail at one of the Bundesliga matches in our 2017-18 Winter League Report.

On the 9th September 2017 Bayern played away against Hoffenheim. Bayern’s ‘true’ chances to win that game were 47.78% (see Value Calculator results below):

The ‘true’ odds corresponding to a 47.78% probability are 2.09 (1/47.78%).

The problem bookmakers probably had with this particular game, especially if they would have offered odds in the region of 2.09, 2.0 or even 1.9 for Bayern to win, is that there wouldn’t have been enough bets on either of the two other possible results, the home win and draw: The book would be unbalanced with the bookmaker facing a huge potential liability if Bayern were to win.

Football followers with a low understanding of probabilities know that Bayern, even playing away, will probably win the match. Regular punters would be expecting odds in the region of 1.5 or 1.6.

Odds around 2.09 would have encouraged far more money on Bayern as punters would have perceived the odds as an opportunity to cash-in on ‘higher than normal’ odds for a Bayern away win.

Therefore, to avoid too many bets on this outcome the bookmakers were literally forced to reduce Bayern’s odds to match public expectations.

So, instead of pricing the odds close to their ‘true’ probability of 47.78% (in odds: 2.09), the bookmakers had to offer the away win close to the ‘expected’ probability (65%). Hence, they offered odds for Bayern to win of 1.46 – an implied probability of 68.5% (1/1.46).

Of course, Bayern’s statistical chances didn’t suddenly increase by 20% to win that match, although the odds offered may have swayed people into believing this.

Probabilities: Home Win + Draw + Away Win = 100%

Statistically speaking, the sum of the probabilities for any match outcome is always 100%; it is either a home win, a draw or an away win.

Therefore, if the odds (applied probabilities) for an away win are changed due to market pressure, it naturally affects the draw and home odds (implied probabilities).

In this example:

• The ‘true’ probability for Hoffenheim to win of 24.5% (in odds: 4.07) was reduced to 14.9% (odds increased to 6.72)
• The ‘true’ probability for the draw of 27.7% (in odds: 3.61) was reduced to 20.3% (odds increased to 4.92)
• The ‘true’ probability for Bayern to win was increased from 47.8% (odds of 2.09) to 68.5% (odds reduced to 1.46)

In this example, the ‘underdog’ at home (Hoffenheim) became even more of an ‘outsider’ and hence a Value Bet (the price offered was much higher than that of its statistical probability).

Just as a side note, Hoffenheim won the game 2-0

The HDAFU Tables Help You to Discover Value Bet Clusters

As shown in the example above there was a clear gap between public expectations and the ‘true’ probabilities, which literally forced the bookmakers to adjust their odds for Bayern, who were shown as a much stronger away favourite than they actually were.

In the EPL the same can be said of the Draw expectation; in Italy, it’s the Away Win and so on. For specifics, you will have to dive deeper into the analysis of the 2017-18 Winter League Report, where the patterns in the leagues chosen for that season are revealed.

Each league has its own betting patterns and punter preferences and the bookmakers react accordingly.

What makes the HDAFU Tables so special is that they highlight where the odds or HO/AO (home odds divided by away odds) clusters are profitable for the bettor if bets are placed constantly and consistently within the parameters of these clusters. The majority of bets made within these clusters are Value Bets.

So, just remember: There is a public expectation of match outcomes and the bookmakers react by reducing or increasing odds and balancing these changes by changing the odds for the other two outcomes. It’s as simple as that.

Time Saving ~ Risk Diversification ~ Value Betting

Value Bettors who calculate each game individually will find it very challenging to identify enough bets for each weekend to diversify risk sufficiently enough. Every match requires time to be analysed.

The calculations for just one match and checking its bets for viability could take as long as two to three hours. If you’re adept at using our Value Calculator, one match might take you 15-20 minutes to analyse. Even then if it takes only 25 minutes per match in total to identify, choose and place a single bet, if you want a Saturday portfolio of at least 15 matches for diversification, it’s going to take you more than six hours to achieve – every Saturday.

With the HDAFU Tables life is much easier. You don’t need to carry out any individual calculations once you have identified the profitable clusters and checked them carefully before you start placing real bets – and you only need to decide upon your systems once (whole season systems) or twice (half-season systems) per season. Once you have prepared a large enough and diversified portfolio of systems from different leagues, you can let the statistics do the work for you.

Of course, an additional finishing touch for those of us with time when compiling the weekly portfolio of bets is to cross-check those highlighted by the HDAFU Tables (portfolio builder) against the Value Calculator (individual match investigator) and ensure that the majority are actual Value Bets on the day.

One thing you can take for granted is if a cluster has been packed with Value Bets during the previous five seasons it’s likely that the same cluster will continue to churn out Value Bets in the following season.

Many thanks, João, for your question and I hope this article helps clarify things for a wider audience!

In the articles Judging the Risk of a Football Betting Portfolio and Finding a System Using the HO/AO Quotient (and many other articles), I have always referred to portfolios that span a whole season.

To stop betting when the bank has reached a comfortable level of profit isn’t a problem but your main question probably is…

Does System Betting Require Betting over a Whole Season?

Thankfully, it doesn’t!

As long as you play with a mathematical advantage on your side, you can start your betting venture at any point throughout the year/season. You can take one or more breaks at anytime and you can re-start again at anytime.

The only requirement is that your portfolio must be inherently mathematically sound.

One problem you may think of when starting a betting campaign in the middle of a season is that there will already have been a good number of matches played. You may believe that the number of potential winning candidates has been already reduced dramatically. But bear in mind that so has the number of losers.

I’m going to show you how the portfolio of bets showcased in the article 2017-18 Winter League Report – 35k in 138 Days would have performed if betting would have commenced and ceased at random times during the season.

Random Scenario 1 Start Date: 5th October 2017, incorporating Christmas holiday break from say 15th December 2017 to 10th January 2018.

Random Scenario 2 Start Date : 1st January 2018 (second half of season start date for many leagues), incorporating Easter holiday break from say 26th March 2018 to 13th April 2018.

Random Scenario 3: Start Date: 1st December 2017, until 1st May 2018 without any breaks.

Random Scenario 4: Start Date: 15th August 2017; breaking on 1st October 2017; re-starting on 10th November 2017; breaking 15th January 2018; re-starting 1st March 2018.

Curious about the results? Then let’s have a look…

Comparison of Four Totally Different Random Scenarios with the Same Portfolio

Please remember that all scenarios relate to the SAME portfolio; our 2017-18 winter league season portfolio example (using the first 10 European League HDAFU Tables in alphabetical order).

The chosen scenarios are all random and the point that I will illustrate is that so long as there is a sound portfolio in place, it doesn’t matter when you start betting or if you decide to pause, whether for a few weeks or even months.

In order to make direct comparisons, the following analyses are all based on 100 unit flat stakes across the board without ratcheting.

Scenario 1: Portfolio of bets for the 2017-18 winter league season

Scenario 1 a late start; an example perhaps where the bettor decided to paper-test his/her system for two months before committing money to it. And then, like most people, took time off over Christmas before recommencing.

With this campaign, there would have been 95 days of betting with 364 bets placed; the average winnings would have been 74.76 units per betting day, averaging a respectable win of 19.51 units per bet (100 unit flat stakes).

Total Profit: 7,102 units

Scenario 2: Portfolio of bets for the 2017-18 winter league season

Scenario 2 another late start. Perhaps someone who felt more comfortable with a longer period of paper testing? And this time, a holiday break for Easter.

Here, there would have been 55 days of betting with 195 bets placed; the average winnings would have been 61.60 units per betting day, averaging a decent win of 17.37 units per bet (100 unit flat stakes).

Total Profit: 3,388 units

Scenario 3: Portfolio of bets for the 2017-18 winter league season

Scenario 3 a five month continuous run without any breaks.

During this time scale there would have been 74 days of betting with 265 bets placed; the average winnings would have been 51.05 units per betting day, averaging a very acceptable 14.26 units per bet (100 unit flat stakes).

Total Profit: 3,778 units

Scenario 4: Portfolio of bets for the 2017-18 winter league season

Scenario 4 is a much more random pattern of betting – someone who dips in and out whenever they have time or money, or whenever they feel like it. Sometimes, there are just better things to do in life!

During the scattered times there would have been 87 days of betting with 349 bets placed; the average winnings would have been 98.75 units per betting day, averaging 20.79 units per bet (100 unit flat stakes).

Total Profit: 7,257 units

So, the main lesson you should have learned from this summary is that IF you have compiled a sound portfolio of bets then it really doesn’t matter at what time you start during the season, or when you take a break.

How do I Compile my Portfolio if I only start in the Middle of the Season?

Compile your portfolio in the same way you would when looking to begin betting at the start of the season/year.

For example, if you buy HDAFU Tables in October, you will still need to compile your portfolio as if you would have started at the beginning of the season (July/August).

The beauty of starting late is that you can even paper-test your portfolio and check if it is working. If you find that it is then you can safely assume that it will work for the remainder of the season too. If not, then adjust until you get it right.

Compile it the same way as advised in various articles and comply with the ‘magic number’.

• At least 50% ‘medium risk’ strategies.
• At least 50% of the systems within the portfolio with at least 50 bets (for the whole season/year).
• An overall expected hit rate of the portfolio of around 50%.
• A minimum of 500 bets in the portfolio = an average of 50 bets in 10 different systems

If you can achieve more than 50 – the magic number – in any of the above equations, then your portfolio should have an even stronger chance of succeeding.

Once you have compiled your full year/season portfolio and you are happy with it then you can start straight away, at anytime of the year. Period.

As always I wish you good luck with your betting adventures!

I hope this article has cleared up any confusion about starting in the middle of a season, breaking for holidays, and so on… However, if you are still not sure, then please feel free to ask any questions via the comment section below.

What does this have to do with betting?

Image: FXQuadro (Shutterstock)

We speak about ‘Inflection Point graphs’ in our HDAFU Profit/Loss simulations because these graphs have turning points. Turning points are points at which a significant change occurs.

In layman’s language – Turning points are the points in the ‘inflection point graphs’ where profits turn to losses or, where losses turn to profits.

For the mathematicians amongst you, we use the term ‘turning point’ although the academically correct mathematical expression would be ‘maximum’ and ‘minimum’.

However, ‘maximum’ and ‘minimum’ in normal language signifies ‘best’ and ‘worst’ but turning points in a curve have nothing to do with any judgement of being ‘good’ or ‘bad’.

Apologies for any academical incorrectness in the use of the terminology, but somehow we have to make ourselves understood by everybody…

Home ~ Draw ~ Away Profit/ Loss Curves

If you have ever calculated your own odds you will certainly have noticed that bookmaker prices often do not show the ‘true’ picture.

In other words, their odds seldom adhere to mathematically calculated values (the statistically expected values).

In the majority of games, odds are either higher than mathematically expected or lower…

Is That Really True? Can You Prove That?

Here’s an image showing the Profit/Loss Curves for betting on the Home win ~ Draw ~ Away win with equal 100 units stakes over a period of five seasons; the straight red line is the bookmakers’ profit trendline:

English Premier League – Profit/Loss curves by ODDS for 2013-14 to 2017-18 seasons

What you can see in the above graph is that if one curve rises, e.g. betting on the away win if the home odds are between 1.7 and 2.15 (orange curve), then another curve falls.

In this example, betting on the draw (brown curve) produces a loss for the bettor and hence, a profit for the bookmakers.

What is most revealing in the above graph is the red curve. It shows how the bookmakers profits vary depending on the home odds, but the most interesting part is the straight line, the red trendline. It is positive for all odds and perpendicular. The interpretation of this is that for the bookmakers it doesn’t matter in which cluster a particular match is in (in the example, home odds), their odds guarantee them the same constant profit across the whole spread.

Why Is This So?

A bookmaker’s aim is to make a profit and they price their odds to ensure that sufficient action is taking place on both sides of a bet, with enough profit retained whatever the outcome.

In addition, bookmaker betting odds are often adjusted according to public opinion to guard against a disproportionately large amount of money being placed on just one side of a bet.

How can the Bettor Make Use of This Knowledge?

The bettor can take advantage of the knowledge that each betting market contains certain odds clusters that are regularly under-priced, whilst other odds clusters are habitually over-priced. But attention, please! These under- and over-priced clusters are different from league to league.

Bookmakers take into account gamblers’ preferences and these vary depending on the cultural background (e.g. risk-aversion) of the locals. This is perhaps because local bettors are the majority takers for any league bookmakers, so bookmakers take local tastes into account.

It is obvious that, for example, Italians will be betting primarily on Italian matches; Spanish people on Spanish matches, and so on.

However, please be aware that the EPL, the most prominent league in the world, naturally has a huge amount of supporters worldwide. This makes the EPL the most unreliable league (system betting-wise) in terms of its odds. Although odds patterns can be spotted easily, it is always a gamble whether or not they will be returning a profit the forthcoming year.

Nevertheless, for this article, we will use the EPL as an example.

The Significance of the Turning Points on the Inflection Point Graphs

Profit turning points can be easily spotted in the Inflection Point tabs of the HDAFU Simulation Tables using visualisations (see example below) in the form of Profit/Loss curves based on five seasons’ data within these tables.

For example, the EPL: Between 2013-18, if you had gambled unemotionally and systematically on all English Premier League matches to be away wins (at the highest bookmaker odds) and placed a constant stake of 100 units per fixture, then at the end of the fifth season, you would not have seen a large change in your bank: -125 units after 1,900 bets.

Huge losses would have been incurred, had you backed all of the away teams to win and limited your betting to the zone of odds between 2.31 and 4.53. Within this zone your losses would have totalled -9,189 units (3,714 plus 5,475).

However, if your strategy had been based on away wins at odds from 1.68 and up to 2.31, after five seasons your profit would have been 3,202 units (7,714 minus 512).

That’s quite a difference, isn’t it?

English Premier League – Profit/Loss curve for 2013-14 to 2017-18 seasons

Just as a side note… Can you see yourself betting on an EPL match targeting odds between 2.3 and 4.5 when backing the away win?

Different Leagues = Different Inflection Points Graphs

The above screenshot shows the Profit/Loss curve for the EPL if back bets on the away win were placed on all 1,900 matches between 17/08/2013 and 13/05/2018 (at 100 unit stakes).

You can see from the graph that the first turning point is located at 2.31 on the ‘away odds’ axis. At this point, the P/L curve reaches a peak of 3,714 units profit before starting to fall again. The decrease in profits continues until away odds of 4,35 are reached (P/L value: – 5,475 units), where the curve turns for a spell but remains negative until away odds of 9.5 are reached. Then it experiences a large jump before falling again.

Now, we compare this to the German Bundesliga Inflection Point graph:

German Bundesliga 1 – Profit/Loss curve for 2013-14 to 2017-18 seasons

You can see at a glance that both graphs are very different.

Whilst the EPL shows a rising curve (profits) until odds of 2.31 the Bundesliga P/L curve starts to drop straight away from odds of 1.4.

This indicates that the bettors on the Bundesliga are probably much more risk-averse than EPL bettors and it seems that they prefer betting on favourites (lower odds). Using this mentality bookmakers can reduce their odds in this group to optimise their profits and hence, the draw odds and/or home odds are likely to be increased.

Once you start working with inflection point graphs you will not only see the various profit /loss curves (whole season, 1st half and 2nd half) and start recognising patterns but you will be also amazed to learn about the different mentalities of bettors in different countries.

Working With the Inflection Points graphs using the HDAFU Tables

Here’s a handy little tutorial:

How to Use the Knowledge of Turning Points

(1) check your betting pattern

Do you recognise your betting patterns within the most common odds clusters; those which show a falling Profit/Loss curve? (For example, betting on odds between 2.3 and 4.5 when backing an away win in the EPL).

If so, perhaps reconsider your strategy and avoid the odds used by the bookmakers to make their profits. Of course, no matter how hard you try, betting in the zones where bookmakers habitually reduce prices (odds) is asking for long-term losses.

It is very rare for people to succeed in any walk of life by swimming against a strong current and you can safely assume that the bookmakers know their job and have for centuries been making a living from manipulating figures.

(2) don’t even try to “beat” the bookies

Swim along with them. ‘Play’ the market the same way as they do. Start looking at strategies which are not in conflict with the market, but in rhythm with it.

(3) be aware that each league has a different market behaviour

Customs and habits of people vary from country to country. Every nation has different culture or cultures. Surely everybody has noticed regional differences expressed in such tangible goods as food or housing. However, these differences extend into how people think and act.

Unfortunately, differences in betting patterns and the subsequent reaction of bookmakers when setting their odds cannot be spotted without taking a mathematical approach. Customer habits, especially in the betting market, remain well hidden from the bettor.

Whichever league you prefer betting on, identify the odds clusters which are utilised by the bookmakers to turn their profits – and then work around those clusters.

(4) use the market turning points for your own benefit

Concentrate on developing your personal betting strategy by taking the market rules into consideration.

(5) find a strategy and identify matches for producing long-term profits

Using the HDAFU simulation tables and finding the various turning points will provide you with the need knowledge of odds clusters you need to produce a long-term profit when backing.

If you already use our Value Bet Detector for calculating odds for individual matches then the knowledge of profitable odds clusters will help you to pick matches which are worthwhile re-calculating.