This is the last in our series of video tutorials regarding the filling-in of data into the True Odds and Value Bet Calculator Excel spreadsheet.
Here you will learn the input process of market odds from sites such as www.betfair.com into the True Odds and Value Bet Detector to automatically identify under- or over-priced events as potential value bets.
In addition, marvel at the way our lovely lady from the east tries to convince you that Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid are one and the same club. Thank heavens she’s a mathematician and not a football fan! (Sorry, Madrid!) 🙂
You can enlarge the video by watching it directly in You Tube. (Click first on Play and then on the You Tube logo in the bottom right-hand corner of the video below).
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
If you find it difficult to watch the video on Soccerwidow’s site then feel free to swap over to YouTube. Here’s the link: How to input odds into your Value Bet Detector
Video Tutorial Main Learning Points:
- Using www.betfair.com as the source for best odds. Soccerwidow shows you how to quick up the process by typing in the best odds using the split screen function.
- Alternatives to Betfair include www.oddschecker.com and www.oddsportal.com, both of which monitor the bookmaker and exchange markets for best odds.
- When using Betfair, choose a price mid-way between the back and lay values if there is a gap. For example, back price 4.4, lay price 4.8: enter 4.6 as the market will usually settle at this midpoint.
- Alternatively, enter the back prices for back bet strategies, and lay prices for lay bet strategies.
- For the Asian Handicap markets, it is better to use Oddschecker or Oddsportal as Betfair’s liquidity is usually poor and will therefore not reflect market prices.
- Ensure you only use odds for markets that you have access to and which have a chance of being matched or placed at the prices you require.
- Even if you are not concentrating on some of the bet types it is always a good idea to fill-in the spreadsheet in its entirety for future analysis and to help you play through various betting strategies.
Related Videos:
- Go to the first video in our series here: Download Historical Football Data and Sort for Functionality in Excel 2003.
- Go to the second video in our series here: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for filling-in the best odds you can find.
Our True Odds and Value Bet Detector uses Excel 2003 to allow functionality in all versions of Excel.
Hi Jules,
True Odds is another name for ‘Zero Odds’, meaning the break-even odds. In other words, this is the benchmark for establishing whether you have value on your side.
If you are unfamiliar with value betting and the importance of it to any betting venture, then I would suggest to begin reading our article What is Value? and pick up links to other articles there.
Jules, I’m not sure what you mean by ‘implied odds’. The odds available in the market at any point in time reflect the implied probabilities of the outcomes in question.
For example, odds of 2.5 available on an outcome represent an implied probability 40% (1 divided by 2.5). This is just the market’s evaluation of the event based on its popularity at the time (weight of money from punters).
Implied probabilities are rarely accurate and should not be relied upon when judging the likely outcome of an event.
Current odds available are only useful for establishing whether the event is over-priced or under-priced. If your zero odds (i.e. from your own odds calculations based on historical statistics) are lower than the odds available in the market, then the bet carries value as a back bet. If zero odds are higher than odds in the market, then the bet carries negative value and should be considered as a lay bet.
Only with value on your side can you hope to make a long-term profit from betting.
Thanks for your question and good luck!
Hello,when you say true odds do you mean implied odds? i know how to get implied probabilities, if this is right the quicker this is answered the quicker i can buy your product,if this is not implied odds can you point me in the right direction of your sight,and you get implied probabilities calculators correct?. can you get implied odds calculator(not a poker one)? and i don’t no whether you can tell me a calculation on how to get implied odds and how they work(does that sound right)? no worries if its secret,i wrote to you the other day but i was so excited when i came across your site when i wrote to you i might of come across stupid sorry genius lady