Here’s the link to the new sales page: HDAFU Inflection Points Tables
As you may already know from our 2017 Summer League tables, you now receive three separate tables for each league purchased. (Except Australia, see below).
Why? Well, we had an idea in early 2016 and experimented with it. Read about that brainwave here.
Why should I buy them?
Because they are the most effective and successful method we know of building a lucrative portfolio of bets targeting the sweet spots in the odds range. Read about our successful Summer League campaign here and our successful Winter League campaign here.
How do I use them?
Full instructions plus a free HDAFU table download is available here.
You can mix Winter and Summer League tables in your order, and don’t forget to apply the discount codes for multiple purchases. (See green box immediately below).
Buy Your Tables Here!
PRICE(*): £35.00 GBP Per League
The following discounts apply for multiple purchases:
Buy 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 leagues = 20% Discount (coupon code: SW20)
Buy 10 leagues = 30% Discount (10 for the price of seven) (coupon code: SW30)
Buy 11 or more leagues = 35% Discount (coupon code: SW35)
Please contact us (sales[at]soccerwidow[dot]com) should you have any questions regarding checkout and payment. For further clarification about the HDAFU tables please use the comment function below.
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The tables for sale are in Excel .XLSX format. Should you require a different format,
please feel free to get in touch with us by email.
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What You Get for Your Money
Instead of the usual one HDAFU table per league, you now get three. (Except Australia A-League, which is a whole season analysis only due to its size and lack of any recognisable mid-season break. The price of this table is now reduced to £10.00 GBP).
The new style tables presented here are also optimised for easy filtering.
Our recommendation is for a set of systems in several leagues, enough to provide you with a portfolio of at least 500 bets in a season. You’ll then have a chance of emulating our 2016 campaign.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is there a time restriction on the usefulness of the HDAFU tables?
The tables simulate the profits and losses by betting type for the last five complete seasons if choosing the same bet type for every game of the season. Therefore, the ‘natural’ cut-off point is the end of the following season when the tables have to be re-calibrated.
Simulating the profit/losses when betting on the same outcome over the last five seasons, the tables show a picture of the likely (expected) distribution for the forthcoming season.
If the bettor chooses a distribution which is equally spread over the year (e.g. underdogs in the German Bundesliga with odds between 4.0 and 17.0), then it doesn’t really matter when the systematic betting starts.
The HDAFU tables are a great help at any time throughout the season to provide focus upon profitable areas within your chosen league and allow you to refine your final bet selections.
Further reading:
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Avoid Placing Bets at the Start of Season
What is the relationship between the HDAFU tables and the Value Bet Detector?
The HDAFU tables simulate profit/losses when betting systematically on one specific bet type, e.g. backing the home win, the draw, the away win, the favourite or the underdog. The Value Bet Detector is an odds and probability calculation tool for individual/particular matches of interest.
Both tools originate from the time Soccerwidow wrote match previews for Betfair and needed to identify games containing value bets for analysis. Here is a summary of those predictions.
The HDAFU tables were initially developed as a tool to recognise clusters of matches that were far more likely to contain value bets, and thus provide filtered sets of matches to preview.
We often receive questions such as, “Can the HDAFU tables and the Value Calculator support each other?” or, “What is the relevance of the HDAFU tables?” or, “Which methodology is better?”
Ultimately, both products are tools for odds calculation and understanding the betting market. The Value Bet detector is an analysis tool for individual matches; the HDAFU simulation tables is better for systematic betting in larger numbers.
Further reading:
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion
How do I structure a portfolio and what is the best size for it?
“A portfolio is a package of bets where extensive analysis has determined the choices (picks)… This is an essential part of the whole betting strategy in order to reduce the risks of losing by diversifying.”
Now focus on the main expressions: extensive analysis… determined choices… whole betting strategy… reduce risks… and lastly… diversifying.
Actually, there is nothing more to say. Just spend some quality thinking time on it.
It totally depends on personal preferences, on the availability of betting markets to you, on your risk awareness, your understanding of probabilities and statistics, and finally, using all of this combined knowledge to make your best personal judgement, never losing sight of the fact that the bottom line is making profits.
Further reading:
Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio
Are the HDAFU tables for both, back betting and lay betting?
Yes. Although the HDAFU tables directly simulate what happened from a backing perspective over the last five seasons, they are obviously reversible and provide a sound benchmark for formulating lay betting strategies.
Large positive figures and rising curves within the tables indicate promising back betting opportunities, whilst large negative falling curves point to potential lay strategies.
The HDAFU tables come with an odds toggle as well as an exchange commission toggle so that the user can adjust the base figures where necessary – This is of great importance to those wishing to accurately analyse lay strategies.
Don’t forget that betting exchange odds are often ‘higher’ than the highest bookmaker odds and, of course, have a built-in commission surcharge levied by the exchange platform. The effects of these variables can be gauged using the toggle functions within each HDAFU table.
Further reading:
1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
Why is concentrating on bet types more profitable than betting on teams?
The answer to this question is simple psychology, which often defeats the average punter.
There are millions of people who follow one or another team. They read all the news available, discuss form, players and managers, and everything else there is to think about when a match involving “their” team is coming up.
There are plenty of “must win” situations, and even if the odds seem a little short, bets are still placed on the team they support to win the game. Both reliance on luck and a lot of hope goes into each game.
Unfortunately, gut feelings are very often a false friend and team news also has no relevance to the ‘true odds’ of a game; little wonder that there are more losing punters than winners.
The HDAFU tables help the gambler to disconnect all emotions from betting. The figures show very plainly where to concentrate when compiling a betting system portfolio for profit.
Further reading:
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Half-time Results are more Predictable than Full-time
What do you recommend to read for better understanding of the HDAFU tables?
HDAFU Tables Knowledge Base
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
How to Compile a Winning Portfolio
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Odds Toggle Function
HDA Betting: Profit/Loss Simulation Tables
PRODUCT SUMMARY
- Format: Excel .XLSX (compatible with Excel 2007 and higher, LibreOffice, Google Sheets, OpenOffice, etc.)
- File Size: between 623 KB and 2.85 MB each
- Publisher: Hertis Services Ltd (former Soccerwidow Ltd); 5th revised edition
- Simulations within each Workbook: Home Win, Draw, Away Win, Favourite & Underdog, plus a breakdown of individual teams’ performance in each bet type from both a home and away perspective.
- Language: ENGLISH
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Customer Comment
The results of your 2016-17 campaign are fantastic. I’m going to go through your campaign in detail and learn what I can about how and why you put it together and then hopefully go some way toward achieving what you guys did in that season.
One other thing I wanted to say about what you offer at Soccerwidow….the material – free and paid for – is so valuable and really does teach people what they need to know in order to understand the betting market and what is profitable and what is not, the pitfalls and the best way forward.
I’m very much like you in that I don’t see the value in blindly following someone else picks, but when someone doesn’t know the betting market or how to go about it themselves, blind following is what a lot of people gravitate towards.
With your products they really do teach people and empower them to be able to make their own decisions and do things the right way. I feel I have learned a tremendous amount since I found your website and am very much looking forward to putting it into practice in this upcoming football season.
Great job on what you guys do at Soccerwidow!
Simon
Just a quick line or two on the Marathonbet/Tempobet/1xBet/AsianOdds issue.
Firstly, AsianOdds are a multi-bookmaker platform, which includes Pinnacle and a few other sharp Asian books. The odds here are always going to be in line with Pinnacle as AsianOdds can’t offer higher Pinnacle odds than Pinnacle do themselves.
If some of the other books on the AsianOdds platform are going to quote higher odds, then they will be marginally better than Pinnacle – no more than one or two ticks – rather than completely out of kilter.
For these reasons, you can safely ignore AsianOdds when making your bet placement decisions and rely on Pinnacle instead. The time stamps on Oddsportal for AsianOdds are also likely to be less accurate than they are for Pinnacle.
From all of the comments I have read, some people are including Marathonbet when making their decisions whilst others are avoiding them altogether. Personally speaking, if you are going to include Marathonbet, then it is always worth looking at their website for confirmation of where their odds are in relation to Oddsportal’s current reflection of those odds. Too often I have seen that the odds showing on Oddsportal are nowhere near available on Marathonbet’s site.
Using the majority view to form bet placement decisions is definitely the route to follow. If the majority says yes, you can still place the bet with Marathonbet even if their odds are higher than your upper inflection point. If the majority says no, then avoid placing with Marathonbet or any other outlier bookie.
This issue will be eradicated when the 2018 Summer League tables begin appearing for sale in October. The odds in all the leagues will have been individually checked and audited and will exclude all the outlier odds from Marathonbet, Tempobet, 1xBet and AsianOdds, whatever their time stamps. Hopefully this will resolve any confusion going forwards.
I will also be publishing an article in the next few days on the checks you can perform to ensure that your systems remain viable in relation to the odds you are achieving. It will feature a piece on the Odds Toggle function within the HDAFU Tables. I will run through how to calculate the odds toggle figure and inputting it into the tables to show a simulation of what effect the strength of the odds you are buying has on the historical simulation for your chosen systems. Of course, this will provide you with a like-for-like comparison on prices, but not on hit rate.
It has been an unusual start to the season in many leagues, but I am sure things will settle down. The chances of all leagues suffering anomolous seasons all at the same time are too small to worry about.
I urge people to think seriously about their money management and to advise using a stop-loss trigger when things are lean. Even taking a brief pause from placing the bets and paper testing instead until things begin to pick up again is not admitting defeat.
There may be many people running similar portfolios, but I can guarantee that no two portfolios will be exactly alike. I know from several campaigners that their systems are currently in healthy profits; others are profitable but perhaps not to the same extent. Therefore, it is maybe easy to seek consolation in numbers when things don’t go so well. I know all too well from my own experiences that doubts creep in and you become desperate for confirmation that you are doing the right thing.
The bottom line is that if you have a healthy balance of risk throughout your portfolio, can guarantee at least 500 bets during your campaign (the more, the better), and have a set plan about bet placement and complete control over your staking plan, the overall result should be positive.
Putting things into perspective, if a portfolio comprises ten systems, the straight chances of all ten systems having their worst performance for six seasons (the five seasons of historical results in the HDAFU table plus the current season) is 16.67% (one in six) to the power of 10 = 0.00000166%. This equates to one in 60.3 million.
Winning the UK National Lottery by pulling six numbers from 49 carries a straight one in 13,983,816 chance. You are more than four times likelier to win the lottery than seeing ten out of ten systems record their worst performance for six seasons.
Another example, if you ran only three systems and they all recorded their worst performance for six seasons, the chance would be 0.46324%, or one in 215.
I’m sorry for everyone who is suffering at the moment. Things will get better. The odds of total failure are too small to worry about. To those of you who are currently enjoying success, I am very happy for you. But as they say, you can’t please all of the people all of the time.
Hi,
Last 6 weeks have been indeed bad, so we’re all in the same boat there.
In addition, I am struggling to find a “blanket” rule when it comes to treating the questionable bookies like Marathonbet for instance.
Take for instance the game that is about to end right now; Cracovia-Wisla Plock.
In the info on this site there are two rules that I can’t seem to reconcile with each other,
My low treshold is at 3.4 for Poland underdog. Can’t be too surprising really,
So, Odds of over 3.4 were obtainable with 3 bookies; Marathonbet, 1XBET and AsianOdds.
I have seen that AsianOdds should be discarded, right winger, helpful as ever, pointed this out.
So that leaves two bookies. However, it also has been stated that when in doubt, go with the market majority, and apart from the 3 bookies mentioned, all others were under the lowest inflection point, so the majority of the market would dictate I’d skip this game.
I skipped this bet going with this rule. I could however also have gone with the other option, as the Marathonbet odds were timestamped just before kickoff, which is also a valid indicator/approach according to other comments on this site.
I find myself doubting every time, but I think from now on I am going to go with valid timestamps (odds updated at most half an hour ago) for all bookies except AsianOdds and TempoBet. I guess the doubt right winger speaks about is when odds are updated longer than half an hour ago.
I have re-analyzed all my systems, and I am convinced of the validity of my analysis, which as such is no guarantee at all of course, but at least my decisions have been well informed.
However, using flat stakes, and starting from the beginning of the season, one third of the bank would have been lost right now. But there is a LOT of football still to be played.
Is anyone else having an absolutely dismal campaign? I’m not calling the product or the concept into question btw, but this has been a tough couple of months so far..!
Yeah. Been struggling as well. When does everyone place their bet? I read that you should be placing your bet one hour before match starts but that is hard due to life.
Scott,
Yes, I have struggled with results for the last 6 weeks. I’ve posted in more detail about my experience in “How we made £20k” article comments section.
It seems for me that I have 4 systems showing heavy losses, 1 showing good profits, and the rest making a little profit or around break even. The overall result being the portfolio is in loss and just under 20% of the bank has been lost. Reluctantly I am going to have to reduce my stake amount and press on as would hate to stop betting and then see results turn around.
Hopefully us guys that are struggling right now will see a change in fortunes sometime soon!
Thanks for the fast reply.
So, to sum it up, I must check the odds in oddsportal, and then place the bets according to the odds there, regardless if the odds in Pinnacle match them?
For example, lets say my found system contains matches between 2,10 and 2,50. Then I find a match in oddsportal which is at 2,11 (which is in my odds interval), but in Pinnacle the odds are at 2,06. Should I bet on it then? I mean, should I identify the matches based only on the odds in oddsportal, regardless of which odds Pinnacle offers?
And one last question, must I check the odds and place the bets always ON THE DAY of the matches and not earlier?
Hi Rado,
Yes, check the odds in Oddsportal first and decide to place the bet in Pinnacle depending on what the market majority in Oddsportal indicates.
As Pinnacle is one of the sharper books around (low margin, high turnover), the odds you will receive will always be there or thereabouts in line with best market price available.
The only issue you may come across using just a single bookmaker to place bets is when Oddsportal indicates one of the teams as a favourite but in Pinnacle they are the underdog (or vice versa).
For example, if your system is for favourites and Oddsportal indicates that the bet should be placed, you should place the bet on the team in question even if Pinnacle designates that team as the underdog – I hope this is clear. This only ever materialises on games where the home and away odds are very close to each other.
I’ve mentioned in other comments throughout the blog that we place the majority of our bets during the final hour before kick-off. However, because we know how the market is likely to move, it is possible to place bets sometimes days in advance, especially with home teams or favourites, where prices are likely to drift in (become smaller).
The contingency for these bets is that if they drift too far and settle outside the smaller of your two inflection points, they can always be laid back at an exchange for an arbitrage. Placing draws or underdog bets in advance is more problematic as some will have a tendency to drift outside the higher inflection point – you’ll then have to lay these for a loss or take a chance and let them run (of course, some will win, some will lose).
Placing bets early means tying-up money, so you can only consider early placements if your bank can withstand the long term liability and provide enough liquidity needed for bets nearer to their kick-off times. Therefore, you’ll need total control over your game schedule.
Understanding how the market moves is an interesting, albeit time-consuming exercise. You will eventually suss that bookmakers employ several different strategies in order to gain market share. Some will start out offering best price on the favourites, whilst others fill their books with underdog money first. Some sit in the middle and adopt a more conservative approach throughout.
They must all keep an eye on each other so that no one book offers odds that stand out like a sore thumb for any length of time, otherwise a flood of money would arrive on that outcome as punters seek best prices. This would make it harder for the bookmaker to balance its books, leaving it no option but to place bets itself with other bookmakers in an attempt to seek parity. (The other solution of extreme odds movements to try and regain balance would unsteady the ship even more).
So, opening odds get the ball rolling, and depending on the amount of money staked, odds from every bookmaker move constantly throughout the ante post period. Some favourite prices remain pretty static throughout, others drift in the closer to kick-off the match gets. It is the same with underdog and draw prices too, although these are intrinsically linked to movements in the favourite odds, where most of the money will be expected.
Choose a number of high profile games and check the time stamps in Oddsportal for a whole ante post period. Hover your mouse pointer over the odds of bookmakers you are interested in to activate the pop-out odds list and then take a screenshot (separate ones needed for home, draw and away odds as they will only open independently of each other), sometimes several times per day. Slowly but surely you will build-up quite a clear and revealing picture of how the market mechanisms operate.
You can only do this for games that haven’t yet been played, as the time stamps list is only large enough to show aound 20 odds changes at a time. Because odds move so frequently, you may find it necessary to take several screenshots per day to provide a single day’s picture, and you’ll need to do it every day until the ante post market closes. Remember also that a fortnight after the result is determined, Oddsportal curtails the odds list on each game to show just the opening and highest odds reached by the bookmaker on the outcome in question – all that important odds movement information then becomes lost.
Carrying out the odds review exercise on several leagues will make you realise that each league is different and governed purely by its popularity (liquidity, or the weight of money staked).
Getting to know how and why the market moves is probably the most important waste of time you can carry out during your gambling career! It will enable you to anticipate what is going to happen with prices, which is the most vital piece of information for any trader or punter in any market, anywhere.
Ultimately, it’s all about basic economics – the simple principles of demand and supply.
Rado, I hope this sheds more light on everything for you and thanks for the questions.
Hi, I plan on buying 10-12 tables and using them right away. There is, however, one question that is bothering me. You say that these tables are compiled using the highest bookmaker odds for all the games. However, I want to bet using only one bookmaker. Are the tables going to work that way? I mean, for example, let’s say I discover that according to your tables, in EPL all home games with odds between 2,10 and 2,50 will produce a profit, and then find and bet every single game where the home team is priced between 2,10 and 2,50 in Pinnacle ONLY. Is this going to produce the expected results?
Hi Rado,
Should be no problem using one bookmaker to bet with, especially if you intend to use Pinnacle.
However, in order to identify the bets to place at Pinnacle, you will still need to check Oddsportal for the highest odds available in the market near to the close of the ante post period.
Ignore Marathonbet, 1Xbet and Tempobet, as these tend to be misleading outliers.
As the tables are based on highest closing odds, go with the majority view excluding these three problematic bookmakers. If the highest odds excluding these three are within your inflection points, then go ahead and place the bet with Pinnacle.
Also, read the comments sections in the other HDAFU Table articles, especially the User Guide, and the Winter and Summer League Campaign reports, which all contain further tips on how to identify the bets.
I hope this helps!
All the best for now.
Hi Right Winger,
why the HDAFU tables no longer contain Home Fav/Dog and Away Fav/Dog simulations?
Hello Jo,
There are a number of reasons:
a) When we included in the past the additional four analyses you have mentioned (both in the data tab and the backing by teams, odds and ratios tabs), obviously the size of the Excel workbooks was a lot larger (some were 12 MB!) than the slimmed-down versions we present today (maximum 2 MB).
This meant that for people with slower processors in their computers, simple commands such as sorting the match list were painfully slow.
b) With continued use of the tables for our own systems and, when writing the User Guide to help everyone understand how to use them, it became more and more apparent that we didn’t actually need the extra level of depth in the favourite/underdog analyses.
When looking at the inflection points graphs to decide what to analyse, and then sorting the data to find the best systems, it is obvious that if you are looking at favourites in your profit/loss curve, then the vast majority of those games will be home favourites.
Vice versa for underdogs – most of them will be the away teams.
Of course, looking at the favourite or underdog from any perspective can be achieved simply by sorting the data tab and hiding what you don’t want to see.
Analysing the away favourites and home underdogs therefore became more and more superfluous, which led to the decision to abandon them altogether in favour of reducing the size of the files for faster analyses.
So, the decision was therefore nothing sinister or groundbreaking/revolutionary.
I guess it is just another example of the law of diminishing returns in action – the further you go with an analysis, the less worthwhile the time spent is, compared to the results achieved.
I hope this all makes sense!
In your 10k in 178 days article you announced a a stop-loss mechanism and a ratchet system for upcoming HDAFU-tables. Is this implemented in the new 2017/18 tables? And are the any other improvements compared to the summer 2017 leagues? Thanks in advance and congrats to your great work. I’m using the summer leagues for two months now and like them very much.
Hi Acepoint,
The 2016-17 Campaign review will be ready in the next day or so. The free Excel download with that article will contain an example of a ratchet system and should be self-explanatory.
The HDAFU tables do not contain a ratchet or stop-loss mechanism themselves. They are purely tools for compiling a balanced portfolio of bets. How you manage your money as you bet on your portfolio is a separate issue to finding systems that work in the first place.
The 2017-18 Winter League tables are essentially the same as the 2017 Summer League tables. Just a couple of cosmetic changes, including moving the favourite and underdog odds next to the 1×2 odds to make it easier to sort.
Lastly, thank you for your kind words – always good to hear that the products work for our customers as well as they do for ourselves!
Good luck!