Image: ross-edward cairney (Shutterstock)

The outcome of the research shows that people who describe themselves as lucky share one common characteristic: they are all exceptionally good at looking for and recognising opportunities. Wiseman’s luck strategies are actually banal: maximise random chances, listen to intuition, have confidence in your future, recognise luck in misfortune.

Opportunity Knocks

One explanation as to why some people are less lucky (less successful) than others can be found in an experiment carried out by Wiseman in 2003. His experiment follows that of Stanley Milgram Small World Experiment which suggests that each human (social member of society) is connected to every other human in the world by a surprisingly short chain of acquaintances.

Wiseman’s experiment began with Internet posts inviting the general public to participate and some 500 people applied. 100 were then randomly selected and handed a package with the task of forwarding it to ‘Katie’, a 27-year-old student of art and history at Manchester University, who once worked in public relations in London, and enjoys cycling.

All the initial volunteers and subsequent recipients were asked to send the parcel only to someone they knew on first-name terms. Ten per cent of the parcels eventually reached Katie and amazingly, there were just four people in total linking the initial volunteers with Katie.

The tiny number of people linking the volunteers to Katie supports the idea that humans may indeed all be linked to one another via a remarkably short human chain. ‘The Luck Factor’, published in 2004 by Richard Wiseman, reveals that lucky people frequently experience the ‘small-world’ phenomenon, and that such lucky meetings have a dramatic and positive effect on their lives. In contrast, unlucky people rarely report small-world experiences.

However, in his experiment approximately 20% of the volunteers did not forward their parcels at all, guaranteeing that their packages would never reach Katie. These volunteers had gone to considerable lengths to ensure that they participated in the study, but had then dropped out at the very first stage. Interestingly, the vast majority of these people had previously rated themselves as unlucky. These people hadn’t even tried to achieve success and had given up at the first opportunity (here is the complete description of the experiment).

The conclusion of this experiment is that luck and success depend on taking opportunities and that people who are not shy in creating and seizing opportunities seem to be more successful.

Belief in Luck

Have you ever heard the term “self-fulfilling prophecy”? Proof of this concept was recently attempted by Derren Brown in a UK Channel 4 TV show. He tried to show that if people begin to believe in luck, their attitude changes positively towards opportunities and as a result they become better off or more successful.

To conduct this experiment, a small northern English town was selected and a rumour begun about a statue in a local park which was bringing luck. The Channel 4 team helped a little by engineering a few lucky coincidences and within only three months the experiment took on a life of its own. The rumour spread, attracted the interest of the regional press and many people started to report lucky experiences and coincidences (without any further effort from Channel 4!).

The Channel 4 team also carried out a few experiments in the background and observed that the people who believed in the lucky statue became surprisingly more successful than others. These people were more open to new opportunities, concentrated on reaching success and thereby catapulted themselves into the newly formed group of lucky people.

Derren Brown succeeded to show that believing in the existence of a lucky charm has a positive effect on attitude and leads to more frequent opportunities. It was rather fascinating to watch the broadcast “Derren Brown: The Experiments, Series 1 Episode 4” and observe the development of the Todmorden experiment: Channel4

However, please be cautious! Believing only in luck and grabbing opportunities is not a warranty for success (although Derren Brown’s show seems to suggest this at the end, be reminded that it was only a show and he is a master of illusion!). On the other hand, surely a strong belief in hard luck and permanently omitting opportunities does not lead to constant failure?

Seneca, a Roman philosopher and politician (5 BC-65 AD) is known for his saying: Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

Therefore, in our opinion the interpretation of Richard Wiseman’s and Derren Brown’s experiments should be as follows:

Sending a package to a stranger via acquaintances – a large circle of friends and an excellent social network requires a lot of effort to build and maintain and therefore it surely belongs to the set of “preparation”. If then an opportunity comes along, success (luck) strikes faster since there is simply a larger intersection between the two sets: preparation and opportunity [expressed in mathematical terminology].

Believing in a lucky charm – preparation (a lot of work) is not really much use if opportunities are hardly ever taken [the intersection of the two sets, luck, then remains empty or is much smaller than compared to other people].

The Gambler’s Fallacy

Despite belief in luck and many opportunities to gamble the gambler must never forget that luck (success) is a subset of preparation and opportunity. Gamblers, however, seem to have the tendency to focus on the many opportunities and in a firm belief in luck; somehow the ‘preparation’ falls behind. Unfortunately this is not a formula for success: If luck is defined as a subset of preparation and opportunity then one can omit neither of these elements.

When gambling it seems that there is exactly the opposite psychological rule compared to social behavior: If people in social environments are inclined to work hard (preparation) and are quite careful and sometimes even reluctant in seizing new opportunities, it seems to be the opposite when gambling. The majority of gamblers seem to be people who are rather inclined to seize opportunities but keep the preparation (work) at a minimum.

Image: archerix (Shutterstock)

Be reminded of the fact that casinos and bookmakers earn their profits via statistics and probabilities (percentages) and there is a memorable saying by the statistician Chip Denman (Statistics Laboratory at the University of Maryland): Luck is only probability which one takes personally.

If a coin is thrown ten times and lands eight times as a ‘head’, it is tempting to believe that the next throw must be a tail. Unfortunately this is wrong thinking. The coin does not have a memory and the next throw has exactly the same chance as all the preceding ten throws: a 50% probability for ‘heads’ and 50% for ‘tails’.

Margaret Thatcher once commented upon praise she was given when receiving a school prize at the age of nine, “I wasn’t lucky, I deserved it!”.

Nevertheless gamblers often believe in ‘lucky streaks’ or ‘hot tables’ or even attach superstition to a particular number. There is simply no need to be fooled as the majority of gamblers tend to lose more than they will ever win.

Soccerwidow’s blog is about statistical analyses, probabilities, evaluation of historical data, strategies of sporting bets, gambling explanations, bookmaker mathematics, odds, et cetera. Perhaps you will take this opportunity and become a Guest Author for Soccerwidow. Who knows where this opportunity will lead you in life?


Further literature on this topic:

• Quirkology: The Curious Science Of Everyday Lives (Richard Wiseman)
• Supersense: Why We Believe in the Unbelievable (Bruce M. Hood)
• What’s Luck Got to Do with It?: The History, Mathematics, and Psychology of the Gambler’s Illusion (Joseph Mazur)

Whether looking for motivational and inspirational soccer quotes, or controversial and critical words about the beautiful game of football, then you should find something of interest in the following 50 quotes by famous people, soccer lovers or otherwise…

Image: Luis Louro (Shutterstock)

For the purist, football is “football”, but for our American friends, the term “soccer” is equally as acceptable and interchangeable.

To everyone, we hope you enjoy our feast of football/soccer quotes!

This compilation contains some of the best quotes we could find related to gambling, luck and money.

Since humans have existed they have gambled away their fortunes, and it is probably the fate of man to continue gambling so long as there is anything left to bet on…

Photo: Steve Punter (Wikimedia Commons)

Gambling and Luck Quotations

These quotations are sorted chronologically and appear quite representative of gambling as it has developed over the last 2,000 years or more…

“I would like to open an account with your bank.” she says to the bank clerk.

He smiles and replies, “Why of course, Madam, how much would you like to deposit?”…

Image: Anton Brand (Shutterstock)

…“One million pounds!”, says the old lady.

The astonished clerk smiles again but decides to proceed with caution.

“That’s a sizeable sum, Madam, where did you get so much money from?”

The lady is understandably reluctant to answer with so many other bank customers within earshot.

Finally, the clerk decides upon discretion and arranges a private meeting between the lady and the manager of the bank.

After the introductions are over, the bank manager asks the lady, “Madam, where did you get so much money from?”

“It’s the profits from all the winning bets I have placed recently”, she smiles.

The bank manager cannot begin to imagine who this woman is or how she can be such a successful gambler, old and frail as she looks. He contemplates the situation for a few seconds before she looks him in the eye and speaks again…

Image: Anton Brand (Shutterstock)

“I bet you ten thousand pounds that your crown jewels are square shaped!”

Caught completely by surprise, the bank manager almost chokes before replying, “That is quite a ridiculous suggestion, Madam. My gonads are as normal as any other man’s!”

Again, the old lady grins before declaring, “Well, if you’re so sure, then you won’t mind putting your money where your mouth is!”

After a few minutes of discussion with this odd woman the bank manager agrees to the wager, and she promises to return the following day at 10am.

That night, the bank manager is in bed and decides to be on the safe side. He slowly snakes his hand towards his crotch and has a good rummage around. Everything is very normal down there he thinks, not in the least bit square! The old lady cannot possibly win. Reassured, he falls asleep.


The next morning the little old lady reappears at the bank with a smart dressed man in tow. They are ushered together into the manager’s office. She explains to the manager that she has brought her lawyer with her to act as a witness to the financial transaction.

As soon as the formalities are out of the way she exclaims, “Well come on then, let’s see them…both!”

Obligingly, the bank manager drops his trousers and whips out his wedding tackle.

Triumphantly he cries, “There, Madam, as you can see, everything is absolutely normal!”

The woman’s eyes narrow as if to focus more fully on the situation before she says with a playful look on her face,

“Well, they look a little lumpy to me!”

The bank manager’s patience is by now a little stretched and he immediately emphasizes that his meat and two veg are perfectly normal for him.

The old lady counters by saying, “Well, as there is the small matter of ten thousand pounds on the line, I need to be absolutely sure – will you let me feel them, please?”

Image: Anton Brand (Shutterstock)

Aghast at such a suggestion the bank manager considers long and hard what to do.

His children’s school fees are due soon and he could really do with the money.

At last, he reluctantly agrees to the lady’s request.

The elderly woman kneels before him and cradles his balls, yanking them this way and that, leaving him feeling weak at the knees.

Just as she stops, satisfied that nothing more can be done, her lawyer collapses onto his knees and begins to howl and cry, beating the floor with a fist.

“What’s the matter with your lawyer?” the bank manager asks.

“Well…”, says the old woman, “You may have won our bet because your testicles are not square at all, but I bet twenty thousand pounds with my lawyer here that I’d have my local bank manager firmly by the balls today..!”

Isn’t this delightful?

A few reasons why women should like football more than sex:

Image: Andresr (Shutterstock)

• Because it takes 90 minutes
• Because there are plenty of two-footed tackles
• Because tired men are substituted
• Because there are 22 men to select from
• Because after 45 minutes men are ready to go again for another 45 minutes
• Because there is no scoring without dribbling first
• Because losers have to come from behind
• Because the calorie consumption is higher

Image: OLJ Studio (Shutterstock)

• Because after the final whistle no-one snores
• Because it doesn’t matter if the children watch
• Because leather feels much better than rubber
• Because you cannot get pregnant
• Because one can switch off if it’s boring
• Because the first time doesn’t hurt
• Because there are plenty of box-to-box players
• Because men have to apologise for poor performances afterwards

Image: Andreas Meyer (Shutterstock)

• Because there is always hope for extra time
• Because shooting and scoring outside the box is common
• Because no-one looks funny at you if you scream or shout during the action

…and why men find football better than sex:

• Because cup sizes are always large
• Because everyone cheers if it’s in
• Because you do not have to call anybody afterwards

Image: Zametalov (Shutterstock)

• Because a penalty shootout involves at least another five shots at the box
• Because it is easier to get the ball in the goal than a woman into bed
• Because you can score more than once in 90 minutes
• Because striking doesn’t lead to a divorce
• Because positions constantly change
• Because instant replays are available
• Because you can have it daily

Image: Jason Stitt (Shutterstock)

• Because it is possible to attack from the right or left and not only through the centre
• Because there are so many wonderful passes
• Because one can also score with the head
• Because the box is peppered with shots
• Because you can watch it in a crowd without getting embarrassed
• Because no numbers are exchanged afterwards only shirts
• Because nobody complains if you keep your socks on
• Because it keeps the wife constantly moaning

Is there anyone out there who still says that football is not better than sex?

There is always a reason for a product not selling well. There may be no real need for it, no money within your currently targeted audience, no desire to have the product, or simply no trust in your services.

Image: Bruce Rolff (Shutterstock)

Before abandoning products that are not selling well, it is advisable to try increasing demand for them. Move the masses to buy your product or service!

Read what other professional bloggers and website owners say about demand creation…

Many products fail to connect with customers on an emotional level. Newly developed products, which are not yet established household names, struggle to gain recognition. Customers may not realise the benefits from, or understand the necessity of, possessing them.

Image: Viorel Sima (Shutterstock)

Do you feel uneasy at the thought of having to “build links”? If you do, your tactical approach to link building may need re-adjusting.

Image: Shutterstock

Try to think about building links as a way of connecting to ‘colleagues’ working within the same industry. This mindset will serve you far better than just spamming blogs for links; the effects will be longer lasting, far more genuine, and ultimately fruitful.

Read what leading SEO experts and professionals say about back-linking…

To succeed in the world of SEO, it is crucial to understand that search algorithms are an opportunity to flourish – but this can only be achieved through ethical search engine optimisation practices, and certainly not by resorting to mediocre back-linking strategies.

Image: nopporn (Shutterstock)

Always remember that Google engineers work hard to remove poor content and inadequate reader experience from their top searches.

“Companies can go bust. Then the entire share trading system, which is based on historical analyses, becomes totally senseless. On the way to insolvency there is much chaos in a company. Perhaps there are some statistically relevant signs for causes of these failures?

The potential of insolvency differentiates football betting from the share market. Football teams rarely disappear.”

Football Betting a Better Bet?

This comment made me really think as I have not viewed football betting from this perspective before.

I write a lot about value betting and statistical analysis of football matches, explaining that it is not only possible to analyse football game results but also to identify statistical trends and make profitable value betting decisions.

The main thread of this blog is about how to develop relative reliable prognoses and calculate probabilities to gain a mathematical advantage or ‘edge’ and thereby win money from betting on a long-term basis.

The thought that football betting may be better insulated from bankruptcy than trading in stock market shares had never occurred to me. Thank you, Ginger Tom!

The Perils of Trading Stock Market Shares

Image: Alex Mit (Shutterstock)

Everyone who has had anything to do with share trading since stocks have been traded (and probably everyone else in touch with the news) has certainly seen common headlines such as the following more than once during their lifetimes.

They are always similar, having more or less the same content, with just the country or company names changing from story to story:

• FTSE falls on fears over Spain’s ‘septic’ banks
• Disappointing China GDP sees shares dipping
• Eurozone crisis live: Another Friday the 13th horror story?
• European stocks drop at start of trading
• US STOCKS – Early rally fades as Nasdaq drops sharply

…the above headlines are just a few from last week!

And there are more serious headlines as well:

• Shares in Royal Dutch Shell fell more than 4pc today after an oil ‘sheen’ was spotted
• Rio Tinto Q1 iron ore, copper miss forecasts, shares drop
• Nokia shares dropped over 16 per cent on the Helsinki Stock exchange today

When I read things like this, I am genuinely glad that my funds are tied-up in the much more straight-forward topic of football betting and that I do not burn my fingers in the share markets.

Now, some people may argue that sports betting of any type is just a ‘zero-sum’ game; someone has to lose in order for someone to win.

However, my argument with businesses is that unless shares are issued to finance or float an enterprise (capitalisation), (nearly) every other financial form of trading, especially shares, is also a ‘zero-sum’ game.

Indeed, this ‘paper trading’ has little effect on the day-to-day running of the company and, is itself, no more than pure speculation (i.e. betting).

Furthermore, in the stock market the information available to the public is limited to news which the companies decide to communicate or are legally obliged to reveal.

Companies traded on stock exchanges are usually large enterprises, perhaps internationally active, with a multitude of internal issues, none of which the shareholders know about or have any influence over.

Indeed, when bad news is learned, it is usually too late to act.

Image: April Cat (Shutterstock)

So far, up to the end of February 2012, 179 German and 135 English language readers have kindly replied, making a total of 314 votes.

Assuming all the online votes in this poll have been truthfully registered, the majority of participants belong to the group forming the backbone of the betting industry, in other words, the ‘losers’, without whom the whole world of gambling would not exist.

44.69% of the German speaking readers who voted indicated that they lose more money than they win and in the English version of the blog this number is higher (despite fewer total votes) at 58.52%:

English Language Blog Results up to 01.03.2012

German Language Blog Results up to 01.03.2012

The indication of 43 readers (28 German and 15 English, or 13.7% in total), stating that they make a living from betting is open to question as this is a relatively high percentage. It would be very difficult for the betting industry to survive if more than one in every tenth player claimed enough winnings to live from betting.

There is of course the possibility that the few people who do say they are successful with betting are in fact only moderately so, perhaps they don’t keep good enough records to actually show themselves they are not, but enjoy exaggerating their few successes. In contrast, those who lose regularly may not wish to admit this fact and will also talk up their own stock. It is therefore possible that voters with these psyches are bending the survey results to some degree.

Another possibility is that some answers originate from countries where just a few Euros a day are sufficient for ‘living’?

Furthermore, the results may be distorted by a design fault in the survey itself or, the fact that some answers have come from people who work in the betting industry and derive their income from people who bet, rather than betting themselves. Lastly, there is always the possibility that some of the results are tainted by malevolent people giving false answers.

Even if the poll holds no scientific significance, it does give quite a clear picture that the vast majority of bettors admit to losing more money than they win.

For the time being, we will keep the poll running and promise to update our readers with fresh results in the near future.

Thanks to all who have taken the time to register a vote.

Back to Soccerwidow Poll Results up to October 2011

Image: panbazil (Shutterstock)

Altogether, since February 2011, there have been over 100 replies in total from our English and German language readership and we think the results can now be regarded as quite ‘representative’, hence our decision to publish.

We will keep the poll open for the time being and the tables below show the first nine months’ voting. We will provide another update early next year but in the meantime, we would like to ask our audience if there any other topics of interest, or any sought after answers that Soccerwidow can help with? What would you like to know from the worldwide betting community?

All ideas are welcome and there is no such thing as a dumb question. just drop us a line using the comments box below and we will do our best to accommodate you.

Thanks as always for your time.

Do you make money from betting during a year?

Forwards to Soccerwidow Poll Results up to March 2012