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Odds to Use for Ante Post Football Betting Systems
Bookmakers’ Motives in the Ante Post Market:
Towards the end of the ante post market many smaller bookmakers will already have reached their financial liability threshold for a particular match outcome and drop out of the race to be best...
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
Every year we publish HDAFU simulation tables (Home, Draw, Away, Favourites, Underdogs), which model profit & losses for five seasons in each featured league for developing profitable betting systems.
Today’s article discusses the...
1X2 HDAFU Tables: Odds Toggle Function
All of our 1×2 HDAFU simulation tables (Home-Draw-Away-Favourite-Underdog) are based on highest bookmaker odds at the close of the ante post betting market (i.e. match kick-off time, when the market switches to ‘in-play’).
All...
Bet and Win – Avoid Placing Bets at the Start of Season
If you are not operating a football betting portfolio which is primarily aimed at diversifying risk and balancing your cash resources between different leagues, matches, and outcomes, then it is strongly advisable to hold off from any betting...
Combinatorics and Probability Theory in Football Betting
Introduction to Combinatorics and Probability Theory
This article is a step-by-step guide explaining how to compute the probability that, for example, exactly 4 out of 6 picks win, or how to calculate the likelihood that at least 4 of 6 bets...
Half-time Results are more Predictable than Full-time
It makes sense, doesn’t it? Predicting the result of a full 90-minute match has to be harder than predicting the outcome of just the first half.
Logically speaking, any full-time (FT) football betting strategy must be riskier than betting...
Liquidity at Betting Exchanges – Which are the Best?
For serious bettors and professional traders, betting exchanges are the most convenient and reliable platforms.
Bookmakers are often very quick to limit stakes and/or close accounts of successful customers, or void individual bets or even whole...
1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio
This article moves away from betting on individual teams, and pushes strategic thinking further up the knowledge ladder.
The method described below explains how to use our HDA simulation tables for recognising profitable 1×2 betting strategies...
The Gambler’s Ruin Explained – Fair Coin Flipping
One of the phenomenons of probability is Gambler’s Ruin. The most common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected zero value to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent...
Arbitrage between Bookmakers and Cross Market Arbitrage
(1) Arbitrage between Two Bookmakers in One Betting Market
This is the classic form of sports arbitrage (sure bets) in football betting.
The arbitrage opportunity relies on at least two bookmakers evaluating the same event differently, each...
