In July 2020, after the first wave of the coronavirus, when most of the leagues resumed their games Soccerwidow performed a public experiment to see whether old statistics could be still used and if the Over/Under Betting coursebook remained potent.

If you followed our live experiment last year with real money then you would have increased your starting bank by over 50% in just 25 betting days.

Now, many months have passed and the leagues have just about returned to their regular schedules, albeit without fans in most stadiums. What is quite obvious to all observers, as well as punters, is that there are now more away wins than previously: ‘home advantage’ seems to have shrunk.

But what about the goals?

Spain soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

Poland soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

Italy soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

EPL soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

BL1 soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

Above are the statistics for the four leagues we tested in our portfolio last summer: Italy, Spain, Poland and the EPL. These were four randomly chosen leagues and our campaign covered the last six weeks of the respective seasons.

This time we are adding the German Bundesliga 1. Firstly, because the BILD (the German broadsheet newspaper) is going to publish our picks on its website and secondly, to allow our course buyers (who are in the possession of the German Bundesliga Cluster Table courtesy of their purchase) to follow the calculations and reasoning.

This season’s campaign will again follow the last six weeks of each featured league and we will once again concentrate on Over/Under selections using our Cluster Tables.

The rules of engagement are the same as last time (for comparison purposes) and are explained a little further down in this article.

What’s pretty obvious this season is that in many leagues the ‘home advantage’ seems to have suffered due to the empty stadiums. Apart from the Bundesliga, the other four leagues, Poland, Spain, Italy and the EPL, have seen considerably fewer home wins than in the previous season – for example, a drop of 17.8% in the EPL thus far.

However, despite the shift in the home and away wins the total goals per match have hardly changed. Italy so far this season is down just -0.7% of goals, Spain -0.4%, Poland -2.7% and the EPL -2.2%. The highest change in the observed goals per match is in the German Bundesliga: -6.9%, although they have exactly the same number of home wins as the previous season.

What is interesting here is that the Bundesliga home goals per match do not show a high deviation – only -3.6% – but the away goals scored per match have dropped by -11.0%. In the other leagues, except in Italy, the away teams are currently scoring more goals on average.

Whatever the reason is for these changes it cannot be solely down to the missing crowds at games. It’s truly fascinating – just have a look at the numbers in the above graphs and make your own conclusions.

Slideshow Picks

The picks for the respective day will appear here around 1 p.m. (sometimes earlier) as well as the results of the previous matchday. For the German audience, the picks are also published by the BILD, so no one will be able to tell us that we don’t publish our picks in advance! 🙂

You may have to press the F5 button to refresh this page if you don’t see the picks for the day. However, please note that there won’t be picks on every day as not every day of the week has qualifying matches.

Sadly, we have had to suspend our live experiment in association with Bild.de on 5th May 2021 after just 18 rounds of games. We were spending an awful amount of time compiling the data and making the picks entirely for free. Bild.de was using the novelty of a female pundit (yours truly) to attract readership and to entice them into buying subscriptions for the full version of its website. Indeed, every Soccerwidow featured article on Bild was attracting between 20-50,000 views each. Yet, an organisation as large and as powerful as Bild was arrogant enough to take our work for free with no guarantee of payment at the end of it. Apparently, we were supposed to be grateful for the exposure we received as a result of having our hard work taken advantage of. Sorry Bild, but that’s not the way to build lasting associations or bonds with your business partners… We are off to spend our time on more fruitful labours!

Day 18 Picks & Results: 2021.05.03

Odds from (and published on SW): 23:22 GMT+1, 2nd May

Day 17 Picks & Results: 2021.05.02

Odds from (and published on SW): 23:08 GMT+1, 1st May

Day 16 Picks & Results: 2021.05.01

Odds from (and published on SW): 22:02 GMT+1, 30th April

Day 15 Picks & Results: 2021.04.30

Odds from (and published on SW): 10:06 GMT+1, 30th April

Day 14 Picks & Results: 2021.04.26

Odds from (and published on SW): 10:47 GMT+1, 26th April

Day 13 Picks & Results: 2021.04.25

Odds from (and published on SW): 21:54 GMT+1, 24th April

Day 12 Picks & Results: 2021.04.24

Odds from (and published on SW): 22:24 GMT+1, 23rd April

Day 11 Picks & Results: 2021.04.23

Odds from (and published on SW): 09:47 GMT+1, 23rd April

Day 10 Picks & Results: 2021.04.22

Odds from (and published on SW): 09:41 GMT+1, 22nd April

Day 09 Picks & Results: 2021.04.21

Odds from (and published on SW): 14:11 GMT+1, 21st April

Day 08 Picks & Results: 2021.04.20

Odds from (and published on SW): 17:58 GMT+1, 19th April

Day 07 Picks & Results: 2021.04.18

Odds from (and published on SW): 21:49 GMT+1, 17th April

Day 06 Picks & Results: 2021.04.17

Odds from (and published on SW): 12:25 GMT+1, 17th April

Day 05 Picks & Results: 2021.04.16

Odds from (and published on SW): 18:25 GMT+1, 15th April

Day 04 Picks & Results: 2021.04.12

Odds from (and published on SW): 12:58 GMT+1, 12th April
Next Picks due 16/04/2021

Day 03 Picks & Results: 2021.04.11

Odds from (and published on SW): 22:09 GMT+1, 10th April

Day 02 Picks & Results: 2021.04.10

Odds from (and published on SW): 10:37 GMT+1, 10th April

Day 01 Picks & Results: 2021.04.09

Odds from (and published on SW): 09:12 GMT+1, 9th April

*Best (Odds): The odds at the time the picks were made/published


The expected probability and zero odds are calculated exactly as described in the coursebook using the Cluster Tables.

The original selection criteria was:

1. the chance to win the bet has a Probability between 60% and 80%, and
2. the expected Yield is between -15% and 30%
3. the Profitability of the bet is between -50% and 95%
4. the Disparity of goals between the home and away team is between -25% and 30%

According to this season’s statistics so far, the following additional rules were to be applied:

• ITALY >> Avoiding ‘Over 2.5’ bets
• SPAIN >> ‘Over 1.5 goal’ will be preferred even if they have a negative value
• POLAND >> Under Bets will be preferred
• EPL >> Under Bets will be preferred
• BL1 >> Being careful to place Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 bets

If all the above criteria were applied and there were 2 bets to choose from, then the last knock-out criteria were:

• bet has a positive value, and if not,
• the bet with the lowest negative value in the 60% – 80% cluster is selected
• only 1 bet per match is selected

HOWEVER…

After the first four betting days, our bank reduced by almost 25%.

Rather than waiting for the stop loss margin (60% of the bank) to check the stake amounts and prevent total loss of the bank, we reappraised the portfolio and changed the selection rules with effect from 16th April 2021 (betting day 5).

We are no longer concentrating exclusively on the 60-80% probability range.

We will now focus on two specific ranges of over/under options: from OVER 1.5 goals to OVER 5.5 and UNDER 3.5 goals to UNDER 0.5 (0:0).

If there are two bets with a very similar probability in a single game, such as O 1.5 and U 3.5, both will be played with the stake evenly distributed between them. (For example, if the higher odds option represents 2.5% of the bank, then this amount is split 1.25% on one result and 1.25% on the other).

If there are several qualifying bets in a single game, for example, O 1.5 – O 2.5 – O 3.5 – O 4.5 – O 5.5, all bets that contain value are played. In this case, we will stick to the maximum stake of the bet with the highest probability and split this equally between all of the bets.

With this approach, more bets with higher odds will enter into the scope of the portfolio – for example, Under 0.5 and Over 5.5 goals.

Here is an example calculation of a bet that would have gone really well:

The basis for calculating the stakes has changed from this:

• Odds up to 1.1: 5% from the bank
• Odds between 1.1 – 1.16: 4% from the bank
• Odds between 1.16 – 1.39: 3.8% from the bank
• Odds between 1.4 – 2.25: 2.5% from the bank
• Odds between 2.25 – 7.50: 1.5% from the bank
• Odds over 7.50: 0.5% from the bank

…To this with effect from 16th April 2021:

• Over 1.5 Goals = 3.5% of bank
• Over 2.5 Goals = 2.5% of bank
• Over 3.5 Goals = 1.5% of bank
• Over 4.5 Goals = 1.0% of bank
• Over 5.5 Goals = 0.5% of bank
• Under 0.5 Goals = 0.5% of bank
• Under 1.5 Goals = 1.0% of bank
• Under 2.5 Goals = 1.5% of bank
• Under 3.5 Goals = 2.5% of bank

Stakes are always rounded up to the nearest whole number.

However, not only are the stakes calculated according to the risk but a ratchet system will also be applied. This means that the stakes increase with each round in accordance with the highest bank total achieved and remain at that level even if the bank then decreases again. The stakes are only reduced if the bank reduces to 60% of the starting bank (i.e. starting bank loses 40%).

Starting Bank (at the start of the experiment on April 9, 2021): 3,000.00
Highest Bank (9th April 2021): 3,000.00
Bank will increase each day if there are winnings; bank for calculating stakes will only reduce when it drops below 1.600,00 (60% of starting bank).

Duration of the Experiment

The first pick is due on Friday 9th April 2021 and we will continue until the end of the seasons in our five selected leagues.

So, we are looking to cover seven full weekends and the midweek games in-between them. Whether we continue publishing picks using Summer Leagues thereafter will be decided at a later date.

Important information about the risk!

Even if we trust our own coursebook and cluster tables and are pretty sure that the published picks will lead to a profit, we urge you to play it safe by not risking more money than you can afford to lose.

Please stick to the above staking plan and do not carry out any experiments with the staking. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you and increase stakes if there is a good spell going on. And please don’t chase any losses if there are a few bad days in a row. Please always remember that we are playing statistics and that they never line up in a regular manner.

It is interesting to see that the total goals in the games haven’t really changed despite the fluctuations of home and away wins but what we do not know for sure is whether the Cluster Tables, which are based on the statistics of the last five full seasons of the teams involved, are robust enough to cope with this change.

Therefore, we urge you once more, be careful! Should you follow our picks with real money, then please stake only what you are prepared to lose and stick strictly to the staking plan!!!

Fingers crossed that things go our way again!
Enjoy & share, Your Soccerwidow

The experiment was prompted by the outbreak of the coronavirus and the fact that many leagues suspended their games for a period of a few months and afterwards resumed in empty stadiums. We wanted to see whether historical statistics could still be used and what could be observed after this unexpectedly long break.

The General Outcome of 25 Betting Rounds and 77 Bets

The bank grew from an initial figure of 3,000.00 units to an impressive total of 4,617.56 using ratcheted stakes during the course of just one month.

It was very pleasing to see that the Cluster Tables performed so reliably well despite the coronavirus outbreak and the consequent very long pauses in our featured leagues:

Table 1: Corona experiment July-August 2020
Profit/Loss graph after 25 rounds

During this 33-day period a total of 77 bets were placed within the 60% to 80% probability range.

Here’s the distribution of those bets and the Profit/Loss achieved split into clusters of 2% probability increments:

Table 2: July-August 2020 – Over/Under experiment P/L results graph by Probability

From the above chart, you can see that all but one of these clusters produced a profit. However, the number of bets varied in each cluster. For example, there were four bets with a probability between 60% and 62%, and nine bets in the 62% to 64% cluster, and so on.

77 bets is a very small sample size and this becomes even smaller when trying to form conclusions about each of the 2% clusters. However, this is a practical way of maintaining control if you are using the Cluster Tables for your own betting.

Indeed, for monitoring purposes, we recommend that you do sort your bets in small probability clusters and judge the synergy of your portfolio on the basis of its entire performance. You will find it easier to make decisions if there are obvious areas that are letting down the results.

How the Bets were Chosen

The bets were chosen using our Cluster Table tools that are the product of our coursebook teachings. With these tables, you can very quickly determine the expected probabilities of Over/Under bets for any forthcoming match involving the featured teams (i.e. only those playing in at least their sixth consecutive season in that league – identified in the tables).

To help explain how the bets were chosen, here’s an example using the very last pick of our experiment:
Sassuolo vs. Udinese on 02/08/2020

Below is an extract from the Cluster Table used to make this pick:

Table 3: Calculating the Over/Under bets
Sassuolo vs. Udinese 02/08/2020

Sassuolo was the favourite to win the game at odds of 1.95; Udinese was the underdog at odds of 3.84 (odds taken at 06:57 GMT+1 on the day of the match).

With these odds, the HO/AO quotient was calculated:

Using the 2019/20 Cluster Table for Italy, the over and under probabilities for Sassuolo home matches and for Udinese away matches were found using the appropriate HO/AO cluster containing the value of 0.5078.

These percentages were then copied into an extra ‘helper’ spreadsheet (i.e. the two top lines of the tables on the left).

Using the two probability percentages collected from both teams, the average was calculated (Over 0.5 bets example):

This percentage was then converted into the expected Zero odds:

This process was then repeated for all Over/Under bets.

The third line of our helper spreadsheet is for manual entering of the market odds being offered for these bets.

As we were limiting ourselves during the experiment to bets within the 60% to 80% cluster, there was no difficulty choosing the bets for this particular match as there was only one visible within this probability cluster. The bet ‘Under 2.5 goals’ with a probability to win of 68.2% (corresponding Zero odds: 1.47) was being offered at outstandingly good odds of 3.10.

By the way, this bet won as the match ended in a 0:1 result. Of course, there was an element of ‘luck’ involved as on paper it also had a 31.8% probability of losing. Also, the expected ‘Profitability’ as well as the expected ‘Yield’ were artificially high, which would normally have led us to dismiss this bet as viable.

I will summarise these two very important considerations next in the article but if you wish to understand the concepts of profitability and yield in more detail, buying and working through the coursebook is your only option. It simply is too vast a subject to summarise in an article and is not the sort of information I wish to give away for free

Further Reading:
How to Use Soccerwidow’s Over/Under Betting Cluster Tables
5 Simple Steps to Win Over and Under Betting

Profitability (Value I)

Profitability is the relation of profit/loss to the money spent. In other words, profitability is an index for measuring financial success (operational profit) in relation to the costs (money spent) of running the venture.

When applied to gambling, profitability measures betting proficiency in relation to its expenses.

Profitability Formula:

If you wish to learn a little more about what profitability in betting means, here’s an article with the definitions and some example calculations: Stake, Yield, Return on Investment (ROI), Profitability – Definitions and Formulas

The nice thing is that it is actually possible to predict the expected profitability if you have calculated the Zero odds and know the market odds of the bet you are thinking of placing.

You can see the results of these calculations in Table 3 (Sassuolo vs. Udinese calculations) in the row below the market odds. Try to come up with these numbers yourself!

Of course, all these calculations are about probabilities and a future outcome; they aren’t set in stone and results always come with a deviation. I cannot dive deeper into the matter of deviation at this stage but once again recommend the coursebook, where you will find almost a third devoted to explaining this quite difficult topic in step-by-step detail.

However, what we will look at here is the graph of the distribution of Profit and Losses from our Over/Under experiment by expected Profitability.

For those of you who didn’t follow the experiment as it progressed… During July 2020 we published almost daily Over/Under picks with probabilities between 60% and 80%.

Often, there would be only one bet apparent in this cluster (like in the example Sassuolo vs. Udinese) and we would choose this bet without taking any ‘value’ into consideration or worrying about the expected ‘Profitability’ or expected ‘Yield’.

Indeed, the profitability and yield might have carried negative values, but the picks would still be included in our portfolio and published.

The reason for this is that when you calculate Zero odds and consider the deviation, the market odds may be higher or lower but still be ‘fair’.

It seems like a paradox but having negative ‘value’ attached to a bet calculation doesn’t mean that it is a bet without ‘value’.

Table 4: July 2020 – Over Under experiment P/L results graph by expected Profitability

You can see from the graph above that at its beginning the P/L curve wanders around the -200 mark and then starts rising. The starting point for the rise is around 95% and it stops at -40%. This can be used as a knock-out criteria when selecting bets to place:

Advice for those of you who are actively using the Cluster Tables for investment purposes…

If you wish to play a similar system to the picks showcased in our experiment, then please choose your bets by sticking religiously to the 60% to 80% probability cluster and use the expected Profitability as a knock-out criterion.

If you have only one bet in this probability cluster, and it carries an artificially high profitability value like the one shown in this article (Sassuolo vs. Udinese U2.5 goals), then you need to make the tough decision whether or not to play the bet or leave it alone.

Yield (Value II)

Yield is the Profit/Loss ratio applied to the total capital employed (total staked). When applied to gambling, Yield measures betting effectiveness compared to total turnover. (The interest received from securities, i.e. stakes)

Yield Formula:

In football betting, any yield over 7% is considered to be a very good result. Be careful when you hear people talk about their betting strategies or offering betting systems for sale with a high yield. This is intended to impress the reader, but a high yield is always an indication of high-risk strategies employed!

Like with the expected profitability in the section above, it is also possible to calculate the expected yield simply by having calculated the Zero odds and knowing the market odds.

Please have another look at Table 3 (Sassuolo vs. Udinese calculations) in the row below the Profitability. Again, see if you can match these figures with your own formulas or calculations.

Once again, high yield systems mean high risk. Usually, you will need to play many bets to move forwards with systems of this nature. The reason is simple: High risk means low probability and that means a very irregular distribution of winning bets – and lots of losers along the way!

You can see this for yourself in the graph below, which represents the experiment’s distribution of Profit and Losses by expected Yield:

Table 5: July 2020 – Over Under experiment P/L results graph by expected Yield

You’ll see from the curve that expected Yield over 30% didn’t produce any profits and neither did an expected Yield below -15%. That there even was a negative expected Yield is because of deviation.

This factor can be used as a second knock-out criteria when choosing bets:

Advice for those who actively use our Cluster Tables…

Don’t take our guidance here as gospel. Of course, you can choose whichever probability clusters suit your personal acceptance of risk. You don’t need to stick religiously to the 60% to 80% range that we used in this public experiment.

But, ideally, what you then need to do is to select only matches in your chosen clusters (you can do this retrospectively) and analyse their performance by expected Profitability as well as expected Yield. In doing this, you should then be able to build your own knock-out criteria and adjust accordingly.

I really hope you enjoyed this article and learnt something along the way. Please don’t hesitate to ask any questions in the comment section below.

Lastly, keep faith in statistics! Despite the pandemic, every league will continue playing on a professional level and hence, past statistics can be applied to predict future performance. How else do you think bookmakers set their odds?

Note:
And if you need further incentive to investigate our Cluster Tables further, don’t forget that the 169-page Odds Calculation coursebook comes with a free German Bundesliga Cluster Table. Buy the coursebook, snap up a bargain in the process, and begin betting on the over/under markets straightaway!

Since the 1st of July, we have been running an HDAFU Tables experiment on Soccerwidow, and a parallel Over/Under Goal betting experiment on our German-language sister site Fussballwitwe.de.

Whilst it is too early to say whether the HDAFU Tables will perform to expectations, the Over/Under picks are doing outstandingly well. The original starting bank of 3,000 increased by over 50% in 25 betting days.

Slideshow Picks

The picks for the respective day appeared here around 1 p.m. (sometimes earlier) as well as the results of the previous day.

Please click on the arrows to scroll through the entire history of the picks.

Below are all the picks that were published during the July 2020 Corona experiment (the 2019-20 Winter League seasons finished now). The bank grew from a starting point of 3,000.00 to impressive 4,617.56 during just one month. It was very pleasing to see that the statistics taught in the coursebook in combination with the Cluster Tables did so reliably well despite this Corona outbreak and very long breaks of the leagues.

Day 25 - Picks & results 2020.08.02

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 11:22 am

This last pick of the experiment was somewhat dodgy. There was actually far too much value in the bet but there wasn't any other bet in the 60% to 80% probability cluster for the day. The bet won! It proved one more time that probabilities don't lie.

Day 24 - Picks & results 2020.08.01

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 11:33 am

Day 23 - Picks & results 2020.07.29

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 10:51 am

Day 22 - Picks & results 2020.07.28

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 10:23 am

Day 21 - Picks & results 2020.07.26

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 09:26 am

I cautioned you as I published the picks... We were experiencing a pretty nice long winning streak with 8 winning bet in a row and from the 16 EPL picks in total there wasn't a single bet lost.

However, please remember that we are playing probabilities 60% to 80%. There must be the occasional bet that loses!

Do you remember? I was advising you that we were expecting a few losing bets.

Day 20 - Picks & results 2020.07.25

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 11:29 am

Day 19 - Picks & results 2020.07.24

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 10:19 am

Day 18 - Picks & results 2020.07.23

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 09:06 am

Day 17 - Picks & results 2020.07.22

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 14:07 pm

Day 16 - Picks & resuslts 2020.07.21

Odds from the early morning; published on SW at 12:05 pm

Day 15 - Picks & results 2020.07.20

Odds from around 12:30 pm; published on SW at 13:27 pm

Day 14 - Picks & results 2020.07.19

Odds from the morning, around 10:45 am; picks published on SW at 13:04 pm

Day 13 - Picks & results 2020.07.16

Odds from the early morning, around 09:30 am; picks published on SW at 13:01 pm

Day 12 - Picks & results 2020.07.15

Day 11 - Picks & results 2020.07.13

Day 10 - Picks & results 2020.07.12

Day 9 - Picks & results 2020.07.11

Day 8 - Picks & results 2020.07.09

Day 7 - Picks & results 2020.07.08

Day 6 - Picks & results 2020.07.07

Day 5 - Picks & results 2020.07.06

Day 4 - Picks & results 2020.07.05

Day 3 - Picks & results 2020.07.04

Day 2 - Picks & results 2020.07.02

Day 1 - Picks & results 2020.07.01

The expected probability and zero odds are calculated exactly as described in the coursebook using the Cluster Tables. The selection criteria is:

1. if it has a minimum probability of 60%, and
2. if it has a positive value, and if not,
3. the bet with the lowest negative value in the 60% – 80% cluster is selected
4. only 1 bet per match is selected

The basis for calculating the stakes is the following risk adjustment

• Odds up to 1.1: 5% from the bank
• Odds between 1.1 – 1.16: 4% from the bank
• Odds between 1.16 – 1.39: 3.8% from the bank
• Odds between 1.4 – 2.25: 2.5% from the bank
• Odds between 2.25 – 7.50: 1.5% from the bank
• Odds over 7.50: 0.5% from the bank

Stakes are always rounded to the nearest whole number.

However, not only are the stakes calculated according to the risk but a ratchet system is also applied. This means that the stakes increase with each round in accordance with the highest bank total achieved and remain at the same level even if the bank then decreases again. The stakes are only reduced if the bank erodes to 60% of the starting bank (i.e. starting bank loses 40%).

Starting Bank (at the start of the experiment on July 1, 2020): 3,000
Highest Bank (25th July 2020): 4,729.44
Bank will increase each day if there are winnings; bank for calculating stakes will only reduce when it drops below 2837.66 (60% of starting bank).

Duration of the experiment

We all know that the coronavirus interrupted/paused the leagues for different lengths of time.

The EPL broke on March 9th and, after a 100-day break, started playing again on June 17th.

Italy also stopped on March 9th and started playing after a 103-day break on June 20th.

Poland suspended on March 13th; their break was only 81-days and they started playing again on May 29th. The league concluded on 19 July 2020 and all matches of 31–37 round have been played with “no more than 25 percent of the number of seats allocated to the public”.

Spain suspended on March 10th and started playing again since June 11th after a 93-day break. There were matches played nearly every day for 39 days – concluding on Sunday 19 July.

Each league will make up the lost time differently, however, the last game of this winter season is scheduled to be played on August 2nd. This will end our experiment. In summary, we are expecting from the 1st July until the close a total of 85 matches for cluster table betting.

Important information about the current risk!

Even if we trust our own coursebook and statistics and are actually pretty sure that the published picks will lead to a profit, we are currently playing safe by not risking real money on this experiment.

Just like everyone else at the moment, we can only guess what effect playing in empty stadiums will have on match results. Will home advantage be affected?

How do psychological factors affect results? Like all of us, the players were locked up in their houses for months and subjected to strict curfews.

Did everyone continue to train equally? What effect has this break on the fitness of the players?

There are currently so many questions and unknown factors that could potentially affect game results. Therefore, be careful! Should you follow our picks with real money, then please stake only as much as you can afford to lose and please adhere strictly to the staking plan!!!

Fingers crossed that things go our way!
Enjoy & share, Your Soccerwidow

Image: kanvag (Shutterstock)

Due to continued regulatory challenges, Betfair have taken the decision to suspend their marketing programmes in Germany.

They are currently undertaking a licensing process in Germany for Sports, Games and Poker and have already been granted a Sports betting licence in the state of Schleswig-Holstein, one of 16 German states.

As it stands, they are in a promising position to become a fully licensed operator countrywide but, in order not to jeopardise their remaining applications, they have decided to pause marketing activities for new customer acquisition across all channels and products in Germany for the time being.

This affects Soccerwidow fundamentally as Betfair Germany has also suspended orders for blog articles, which includes our match previews.

Of course, “Why not continue publishing them in the Soccerwidow blog?” Unfortunately, this is easier said than done.

To write and publish a carefully researched and analysed match preview requires approximately three to four working hours; four pieces a week adds up to a considerable amount of time.

In anticipation of just such a situation, we tried a few months ago to publish match previews in Soccerwidow.com (May to July this year). These articles were immensely popular and sometimes attracted more than 1,000 readers each, but the majority came to the site purely for the picks. The increased traffic slowed down the site for genuine readers and contributed nothing in terms of additional sales (Soccerwidow’s course and spreadsheets) or numbers of clicks on ads.

We are sorry to disappoint any regular and loyal readers and we hope you understand our decision not to substitute the previously paid articles in Betfair with free match previews in Soccerwidow is purely about time and money. We wish we could, but we can’t.

Occasionally, readers suggest that we sell our value bet picks and recommendations as they are so successful, or at least introduce a premium service, offering match previews for a monthly subscription fee.

However, this has never been and never will be the goal of this Web site. Soccerwidow wants only to encourage anyone who wishes to bet to use their own intelligence and to fully understand odds calculation and the markets. The site is set up primarily for educational purposes.

Our main aim is education and training, not to provide an easy-to-use picks service for the public. The few match previews we published on Soccerwidow in the past were detailed analyses intending to guide readers into learning how to identify value bets for themselves. If the information we provide persuades some readers to give up betting altogether when they see how difficult it is to make money from gambling, then this is part of our ambit too.

Moreover, if we did start a premium service this would require an increased number of match previews and bet recommendations in order to diversify the betting portfolio sufficiently to ensure its long-term success. Consequently, this would generate a need to employ additional contributors, train them, add quality assurance procedures, and so on. Quite simply, this is not the direction we wish to follow.

We can only cross our fingers and hope that Betfair’s licensing procedure does not take too long. If and when the situation resolves itself, Soccerwidow’s match previews will immediately recommence.

Of course, another possibility is that an alternative solution may come up in the meantime, for example, a different publisher who needs professionally analysed, statistically based match previews.

To avoid confusion: This is about Betfair’s new customer marketing budget in Germany, not their existing German customer accounts.

Betfair states that there will be no impact on existing customers and on Betfair’s product offering. All products and Web sites, particularly www.betfair.com, will remain live and accessible for German customers without any restrictions.

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 25th August, 2012…

EPL 26.8.2012 – Liverpool v Man City

This week’s Opta fact-sheet states that “Liverpool have won just once in their last 7 Premier League games against Manchester City; of the remaining 6 meetings, 4 ended in a draw”. Of course, they could so easily have written, “Manchester City have won only 2 of their last 7 Premier League games against Liverpool, losing 1 and drawing 4”. It all seems a little biased as from 20 Premier League games in the last 10 years, Liverpool won 9 times (45%), 7 games ended drawn (35%), and Manchester City won only 4 times (20%). The two teams also met recently in the Carling Cup, which if you remember, ended 2-2 in the first leg followed by a tight Liverpool victory, 1-0.

Partly due to reputation and also to supply and demand, Manchester City’s odds to win this game are currently 2.48, which are almost 60% below value. They should be nearer 4.64 to win. They may well be English champions, but based on historical performances their chances of beating Liverpool at Anfield are only 21.5%.

Liverpool’s chance of beating Man City is almost twice as great at 46.3% but their odds are well over-priced at 3.2 – they should be closer to 2.16. Last week Liverpool lost 3-0 to West Brom, whilst City narrowly defeated newly promoted Southampton. These facts need to be arranged in context. This was not Liverpool’s first defeat against West Brom. The Baggies beat them at Anfield as recently as 22/04/2012, and in the season before, Liverpool succumbed 2-1 at the Hawthorns.

City didn’t really find their best form against Southampton and conceding 2 goals against a newly promoted team at home will have been a slight embarrassment for them. They will count themselves fortunate to have come away with 3 points from that fixture.

Which bets has Soccerwidow identified?

Salient statistics for the football betting predictions

Head-to-Head (Liverpool hosts, Man City visitors, 11 matches in all competitions since 3.5.2003):
Man City Clean Sheet: none (0%)
Half-time/Full-time Result: Draw/Draw (4 times = 36.4%); Draw/Home (2 times = 18.2%)
Full-time Result: Liverpool 6 wins (54.5%); 4 Draws (36.4%); Man City 1 win (9.1%)
Half-time Result: Liverpool 3 wins (27.3%); 7 Draws (63.6%); Man City 1 win (9.1%)
Both Teams Scoring: 7 times (63.6%)
Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 9 times (81.8%)

Liverpool’s last 25 Premier League home games since 12.2.2011:
Opposition Clean Sheet: 6 times (24%)
Half-time/Full-time Result: Draw/Draw (5 times = 20%); Draw/Home (2 times = 8%)
Full-time Result: Liverpool 10 wins (40%); 10 Draws (40%); 5 Defeats (20%)
Half-time Result: Liverpool 11 wins (44%); 9 Draws (36%); 5 Defeats (20%)
Both Teams Scoring: 14 times (56%)
Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 20 times (80%)

Man City’s last 25 Premier League away games since 12.2.2011:
Man City Clean Sheet: 8 times (32%)
Half-time/Full-time Result: Draw/Draw (3 times = 12%); Draw/Home (6 times = 24%)
Full-time Result: Man City 12 wins (48%); 4 Draws (16%); 9 Defeats (36%)
Half-time Result: Man City 9 wins (36%); 14 Draws (56%); 2 Defeats (8%)
Both Teams Scoring: 11 times (44%)
Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 18 times (72%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Man City are vastly under-priced for this game at 2.48, whereas the statistics imply they should be nearer 4.64 to beat Liverpool. Laying Man City therefore carries 87.2% ‘value’ in your favour, with a 78.5% chance of winning the bet.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Laying Man City at half-time provides a greater probability of success at 81.5%. The ‘value’ quotient in this case is 68.5% based on lay odds of 3.2. City to lead at the break should more accurately be priced around 5.39.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: There is a tiny bit of value (2.3%) backing both teams to score at a price of 1.8. The odds should be 1.76. Chances of succeeding with this wager are 56.8%.

  Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: Backing FT under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.36 gives ‘value’ of 7.3% based on ‘true’ odds of 1.27. This bet carries a 78.9% chance of success.

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 5: Back Man City Clean Sheet = “NO” (Odds: 1.38; ‘true’ odds: 1.16; Probability of winning the bet: 86%; Value: 135.5%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 6: “Dutch” Back Half-time/Full-time Results: Draw/Draw (Odds: 5.8); Draw/Home (Odds: 8.4) (with weighted stakes for equal risk/return). Combined odds: 3.43; ‘true’ odds: 2.33; Probability: 43%; Value: 47.6%.

Bet LOST

Remember, the bottom two teams at the end of the season are automatically demoted to Bundesliga 2, whilst the 16th placed team enters a play-off with the 3rd placed Bundesliga 2 team to decide which will play in the top tier the following season…

Image: Carlos Yudica (Shutterstock)

Many seasoned followers of top-flight German football will have developed a feeling over the years that the likelihood is pretty high that newly promoted teams do not tend to survive their first season in the Bundesliga 1.

However, the exact probabilities are probably something that not many bettors can quickly produce and Soccerwidow has therefore looked at the statistics in detail to provide answers.

Last Season’s Top 5 Automatic Relegation Outlook

It may be a slight surprise to learn that the probability of automatic relegation (bottom 2 finish) for a team having finished in the top 5 of Bundesliga 1 during the previous season is not zero; in fact it has happened 3 times in the last 49 seasons:

• In 1967-68, FC Nuremberg won the Bundesliga 1 title only to be relegated the following season.
• During 1968-69, Alemannia Aachen battled to a 2nd place finish but found themselves a year later playing in the second tier.
• The last memorable slide to oblivion of this nature was not so long ago: In 2008-09 Hertha BSC gained a creditable 4th place, the reward for which was Europa League football in 2009-10, but in the latter season they were demoted to Bundesliga 2, having finished 18th out of 18 in the top-flight.

Therefore, statistically speaking, the probability that any one of last season’s top 5, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Schalke 04, Borussia Mönchengladbach or Bayer Leverkusen, are automatically relegated at the end of the 50th Bundesliga 1 season is 6.1%.

The statistics suggest that on average in Bundesliga 1, surprises such as this happen once every 16 years.

Newcomers’ Automatic Relegation Perspective

The probability is as high as 39.8% that a newly promoted team will not survive their first season in Bundesliga 1, but there is no guarantee that the automatic relegation positions at the end of the season will contain any of these teams.

Eintracht Frankfurt, Fortuna Düsseldorf and Greuther Fürth share a 37.5% chance that none of them will finish either 17th or 18th at the end of this season.

In 49 seasons, all of the newly promoted teams have avoided the bottom 2 positions on 18 occasions.

Last season FC Cologne (10th in 2010-11) and FC Kaiserslautern (7th in 2010-11) ended the season in the automatic relegation spots, 17th and 18th respectively, rather than either of the newly promoted teams FC Augsburg or Hertha BSC (although Hertha eventually succumbed in a play-off to Fortuna Düsseldorf).

Only 7 times in the history of Bundesliga 1 have newly promoted teams been automatically relegated in both the bottom 2 positions the following season. Last time this happened was 2007-08 when both Hansa Rostock and MSV Duisburg, finished 17th and 18th respectively after just a single season in the league.

The statistical chance of 2 of the 3 newly promoted teams (Fortuna Düsseldorf, Eintracht Frankfurt or Greuther Fürth) filling the bottom 2 positions at the end of 2012-13 is 14.6%.

The chance that just 1 of the 3 finishes in the bottom 2 spots is however fairly high at 47.9%.

So, the probability that 1 or 2 of the new arrivals do not survive longer than the 50th Bundesliga 1 season is 62.5% (47.9% plus 14.6%). The corresponding odds for this statistical probability are 1.6.

Conclusion

The market is currently offering the following odds for relegation:

• Fortuna Düsseldorf = 3.0 (33.3%)
• Eintracht Frankfurt = 5.0 (20%)
• Greuther Fürth = 2.8 (35.7%)

A “Dutch” back bet (weighted stakes for equal risk/return) on all 3 teams calculates to 89% (“Dutch” combined odds: 1.12)

The acid question is therefore whether it is better to “Dutch” back or “Dutch” lay all 3 of the newly promoted teams, Fortuna Düsseldorf, Eintracht Frankfurt and Greuther Fürth, in this the “Golden Jubilee” Bundesliga 1 season?

For a change we’ll let you decide…

Defending champions, Borussia Dortmund, will be bidding for their 3rd championship on the bounce but defending a title is never easy in Germany, attested to by 5 different teams having won Bundesliga 1 in the last 10 seasons…

Image: Fingerhut (Shutterstock)

Meat & No Veg: Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV are the league’s longest servants, ever-present since its formation in 1963. Their record of 3 title wins, 5 runners-up finishes, and twice 3rd in 49 years hasn’t really troubled the statisticians, and 15th place last season was a narrow escape from possible relegation.

Never in the history of Bundesliga 1 has a team finished so lowly in a preceding season and then gone on to win the title. This fact is perhaps reflected in the bookmaker odds with Stan James currently offering best price at 201.00! This might be worth taking in the hope that Hamburg start the season well enough to trade out for a profit.

Not A Sausage: Kaiserslautern

Looking more at the stats, it can be further surmised that the likelihood of a team finishing 11th or lower improving enough to win the championship the following season is extremely low, although not absolutely zero, as are the chances of a team arriving from Bundesliga 2 and then immediately winning the top-flight division.

1. FC Kaiserslautern are the one team who have most recently defied this rule of thumb, winning the title in 1990-91 after a 12th placed finish the previous season, and more impressively triumphing in 1997-98, when they became German champions having spent the previous season in Bundesliga 2. Many commentators still attribute the latter success to the inspired leadership of Otto Rehhagel, one of Germany’s most famous and successful managers who took on the challenge of turning an unfashionable team into championship winners.

However, when all is said and done, Kaiserslautern will not have a chance for glory this time around due to their relegation last season…

Sauerkrauts: Hoffenheim, Mainz, Freiburg, Augsburg, Fortuna Düsseldorf, Eintracht Frankfurt and Greuther Fürth

So, back to the theory of teams unlikely to win the league having finished 11th or lower last season or who spent last season in Bundesliga 2. This would rule out the following teams:

• Hoffenheim currently best priced at 201.00, with Stan James.
• Mainz are 380.00 with Betfair.
• Freiburg at 1,001.00, again with Stan James.
• Augsburg seemingly have no chance at a price of 1,501.00, once more through Stan James. As they say, Augsburg have 2 hopes of winning the league: Bob Hope and no hope.
• The 3 newly promoted teams are likewise given little chance by the bookies and you can get odds of 1,001.00 on Fortuna Düsseldorf, Eintracht Frankfurt and Greuther Fürth from both Paddy Power and Blue Square.

Wurst Not First: Stuttgart, Hannover, Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen and Nuremberg

There is a 16.7% statistical chance based on the previous 49 seasons that a team finishing in 6th-10th place last season will win this season’s title. It has happened on 8 occasions since 1963.

This means that Stuttgart, Hannover, Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen and Nuremberg should all have improved chances of claiming the prize than any of the aforementioned teams.

16.7% means that on average, Germany heralds an unexpected champion every 6 years. In 2006-07 Stuttgart came from 9th the previous year to win the top-flight; in 2003-04 Werder Bremen won the league after placing 6th the previous season.

• Odds of 62.00 are available via Betfair for Stuttgart to claim this season’s crown.
• Wolfsburg can be backed with Betfred at a price of 81.00.
• The odds for Werder Bremen are best with Stan James at 151.00.
• Hannover are 171.00 with Betfair.
• Nuremberg are the rank outsiders of this group at a best price of 501.00 with Stan James.

Top Beer: Schalke, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen

The statistical likelihood that a team finishing in 3rd to 5th position in the previous season wins the next is as high as 29.2%. The clubs in this bracket are Schalke, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen.

If we had a soft spot for any of them it would be for Schalke to finally claim their maiden Meisterschale at only their 45th attempt.

• Schalke are the favourites from this group priced at a modest 26.00 with Betfair.
• Bayer Leverkusen can be backed at 67.00, also with Betfair.
• Borussia Mönchengladbach are 81.00 with Stan James.

This group of 3 can certainly be considered for a “Dutch” back bet and we will tell you why below…

Über alles: Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich

Top of the shop are of course defending champions Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich.

On 15 occasions, the defending champions have successfully defended their title, however 9 of these triumphs are firmly lodged in the record books of Bayern. Disregarding this for a moment, the pure statistical chance of Dortmund winning in 2012-13 is as high as 31.25%, but in 45 seasons they have managed a ‘double’ only twice, and have never won the title 3 times in a row.

Photo: Florian K. (Wikimedia Commons)

Bayern have accumulated 21 titles in their 47-year league history and their success rate is therefore a massive 44.7%; roughly speaking they win the Bundesliga once every 2 years.

To calculate the exact mathematical odds there are several approaches but these are beyond the scope of a short article such as this. Nevertheless, the fact is that no matter how the calculation is performed, Bayern and Dortmund have a statistical likelihood combined of around 50% of winning the 50th Bundesliga title, which of course means 50% any other team.

For those of you seriously considering a season-long investment on the Bundesliga winner, we advise to avoid backing Bayern or Dortmund as their odds carry hefty negative values. Bayern’s best odds are currently around 1.87 and Dortmund’s are at 2.90. However, realistically speaking, both should be somewhere in the region of 4.0.

Combining the market’s prices of these two teams produces a whopping 87% chance that one of the two will win the Deutsche Meisterchale in 2012-13. This is more than 40% below the long-term value, and therefore in the long-run more bets of this nature will be lost than won.

A nice alternative would be a “Dutch” lay bet on Dortmund/Bayern, risking 1.50 units to win 10 units with a 50/50 chance of success. Now that’s what we call a true ‘value’ bet!

Conclusion

The group probabilities for winning the 2012-13 Bundesliga season:

• Dortmund and Bayern – 50% combined
• Schalke, Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen – 29.2% combined
• Stuttgart, Hannover, Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen and Nuremberg – 16.7% combined
• The other 8 teams – 4.1% combined

It’s certainly going to be an exciting season ahead and a battle royale for the “Jubilee” title. If you are wagering money on the final outcome then please be aware that the findings above are purely based on statistics and not on any major changes in team personnel over the close season.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose and thanks once again for reading!

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 5th August, 2012…

You Can’t Win Anything With Kids…

Stabæk are in desperate trouble and marooned at the bottom of the Tippeligaen, 10 points adrift of even a relegation play-off place with just under half of the season remaining. It’s all a bleak contrast to the heady days of winning the Tippeligaen just four years ago. Since then, financial troubles have blighted the club who started this season with just three players aged over 23. All the star names have departed and the youthful line-up that has mustered just two wins from 17 games this season already looks doomed.

SK Brann are 16 points better off than their opponents but floating in mid-table obscurity exactly 16 points adrift of the league leaders. A concerted effort between now and the end of the season might bring Europa League qualification but the push has to start now to make up 10 points on the third placed team, Rosenborg, which does seem unlikely.

In nine league encounters and one cup match over the last 10 years, Stabæk have won six and drawn two, yet they are rank outsiders for this game based purely on their perceived change of circumstances. You can get odds of 4.0 for them winning this game, when in reality the stats suggest 1.85. Go the other way and SK Brann’s current price of 1.96 should be around 3.45.

Indeed, everything on the home-draw-away front is back-to-front as the draw is priced at 4.0, whilst the ‘true’ odds are closer to 5.88. However muddled the HDA market may be, one thing is certain: there will be goals in this game. Stabæk’s last 25 home league matches have averaged exactly three goals a game, and SK Brann’s equivalent away games have produced 99 goals at an average of 3.96 per game.

Another telling stat is that in their respective 25 matches, both teams have been outscored by exactly the same margin, 42% of the respective goals for, and 58% against. Leaky defence versus leaky defence = goals a plenty…

Salient statistics for the football betting predictions

Head-to-Head (Stabæk hosts, SK Brann visitors, 10 matches in all competitions since 18.8.2002):
Half-time Scores: 0-0 (none); Stabæk 0-2 SK Brann (none)
Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals = 8 times (80%)
Half-time Draws: one (10%)

Stabæk’s last 25 Tippeligaen home games since 3.10.2010:
Half-time Scores: 0-0 (5 times = 20%); Losing 0-2 (once = 4%)
Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals = 21 times (84%)
Half-time Draws: six (24%)

SK Brann’s last 25 Tippeligaen away games since 17.10.2010:
Half-time Scores: 0-0 (once = 4%); Winning 0-2 (once = 4%)
Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals = 23 times (92%)
Half-time Draws: five (20%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Lay the draw at half-time carries significant value of 150% at odds of 2.5 (‘true’ odds 6.25), with an 84% chance of success.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Back Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals (Odds: 1.23; ‘true’ odds: 1.19; Probability of winning the bet: 84%; Value: 20.39%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: “Dutch” Lay Half-time Correct Scores: 0-0 (odds 3.5); Stabæk 0-2 SK Brann (odds 11.0) (with weighted stakes for equal risk/return). Combined lay odds: 2.66; combined ‘true’ lay odds: 12.5; Probability: 92%; Value: 370.8%.

Bet WON

• Forward to next match analysis: 26th August 2012 – EPL – Liverpool v Manchester City
• Back to previous match analysis: 5th August 2012 – Belgian Jupiler League – Zulte-Waregem v Gent

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 4th August, 2012…

Dirtying Clean Sheets

Both teams are looking to build on their opening day wins and a victory for either will see one 100% record maintained and the other dashed. It is of course too early to say which team is ‘in form’ but both kept clean sheets in their openers and will certainly look to shutout their opponents again come Sunday’s match.

In the analysed head-to-heads between these two adversaries the average goals per game is currently 3.5, which is quite a number bearing in mind the fairly small sample size (eight fixtures at this ground in the last 10 years). The goals have been fairly evenly distributed too with 12 in the first halves of games and 16 in the second halves (the average goals per game by half-time is exactly 1.5).

Zulte-Waregem’s last 25 home games in the Jupiler League have witnessed 68 goals at an average of 2.72 per game (1.0 at half-time). They outscored their opponents 36-32 in these games.

Gent’s last 25 away games in the league have seen 77 goals at an average of 3.08 (1.4 at half-time). They outscored their opponents 43-34 in these games.

Salient statistics for the football betting predictions

Head-to-Head (Zulte-Waregem hosts, Gent visitors, 8 matches in all competitions since 18.12.2005):
Full-time: Both Teams Scoring = 7 times (87.5%)
Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals = 4 times (50%)
Half-time: Gent victorious only twice (25%)

Zulte-Waregem’s last 25 Jupiler League home games since 15.10.2010:
Full-time: Both Teams Scoring = 18 times (72%)
Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals = 7 times (28%)
Half-time: Away team victorious = 5 times (20%)

Gent’s last 25 Jupiler League away games since 24.10.2010:
Full-time: Both Teams Scoring = 17 times (68%)
Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals = 11 times (44%)
Half-time: Gent victorious = 7 times (28%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Back Full-time: Over 2.5 Goals (Odds: 1.8; ‘true’ odds: 1.43; Probability of winning the bet: 50.9%; Value: 83.33%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Lay Half-time Result: Gent (Odds: 3.35; ‘true’ odds: 4.08; Probability: 75.5%; Value: 21.8%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Back Full-time: Both Teams To Score = “YES” (Odds: 1.66; ‘true’ odds: 1.27; Probability: 78.8%; Value: 31.5%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: Back Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals (Odds: 3.0; ‘true’ odds: 2.33; Probability: 43%; Value: 50.88%).

Bet WON

• Forward to next match analysis: 6th August 2012 – Norwegian Tippeligaen – Stabæk v SK Brann
• Back to previous match analysis: 1st July 2012 – Euro 2012 Final – Spain v Italy

June was indeed an exceptional month realising a yield of 16.4%. The formulas and spreadsheets we rely upon for league club games were modified for the neutral venue environment (for most teams) of Euro 2012 with an unprecedented level of success, which led to continuing bank growth:

Profit & Loss Development of Soccerwidow's Betting Prediction Results up to 30th June 2012

From this graph, it can clearly be seen that football betting in general is a very volatile venture. The jagged curve tells continual stories of success and failure, but the direction of the curve indicates that the portfolio system of ‘value’ betting tends to play according to statistical expectations, although an individual match may sometimes hold surprises.

The mathematical advantage or edge (i.e. ‘value’) achieved in June was 55.8% meaning that for every 1 unit lost 1.558 units were recovered. The average winnings per bet were 1.47 units making June from this perspective the best performing month so far.

Our entire experiment is based on a fixed win/risk staking plan (equal win, equal risk). This staking plan takes probabilities into account, meaning that there is a higher stake (i.e. risk) for bets with a higher chance of winning, and a proportionately reduced stake the lower the chance of winning a bet becomes (i.e. providing for more attempts to get a ‘hit’ at higher odds).

In essence this means the stakes employed depend upon the odds, but the risk and attainable profit remain constant. Our wagers in this public experiment have therefore always been limited to a maximum risk per bet of 10 units, or to a maximum win of 10 units.

Fixed Win/Risk Strategy Examples:

• Back Bets at odds of up to 2.0: Example 1.69; the stake (risk) is 10 units; if the bet wins, the winnings are 6.90 units; if bet loses, then 10 units are lost.
• Lay Bets at odds of up to 2.0: Example 1.69; winnings are capped at 10 units; if bet wins, the winnings are 10 units; if bet loses, the loss is 6.90 units.
• Back Bets at odds over 2.0: Example 3.5; winnings are capped at 10 units; if bet wins, the winnings are 10 units; if bet loses, the loss is 4 units.
• Lay Bets at odds over 2.0: Example 3.5; loss is capped at 10 units; if bet wins, winnings are 4 units; if bet loses, then 10 units are lost.

The next illustration (click to enlarge, opens in a new tab) shows computations of “Yield”, “ROI” (return on investment), and “Value” (mathematical advantage or “edge”):

Evaluation of Recommended Bets up to 30th June 2012 - Bank Growth, Yield, ROI, Mathematical Edge (Value)

From bet number one on 7th December 2011 to the close of play on 30th June 2012, a total of 274 bets have produced a net profit of 252.81 units from a starting bank of 50 units. The starting bank has been recycled several times with total turnover reaching 2,166.77 units at the end of June.

The average “Yield” is 11.67% (profit divided by total turnover), equating to an average of 0.93 units won per bet transaction.

The proportional increase of the 50 units starting bank comes to 505.63% (ROI 1) over 7 months, simply meaning that the bank has ‘quintupled’ in size. The average rate of return per month (ROI 2) calculates to 29.91%.

In 7 months a total of 694.66 units were lost and 947.47 units won, corresponding to a profit of 252.81 units. The achieved mathematical advantage or ‘value’ therefore equals 36.39% (252.81 units net profit divided by 694.66 units lost in achieving it).

Evaluation of the Cluster Groups

Sorting the 274 bets into their respective probability cluster groups shows the corresponding hit-rates have still not always achieved the exact calculated expectations (those highlighted in pink), purely because the sample sizes remain relatively small.

Nevertheless, the deviations are not huge, except in the ‘90% and above’ cluster group. We mentioned last month that this may be an indication of error in the probability calculations. Unfortunately, time has not permitted us to investigate this anomaly and we have therefore decided to suspend betting in this cluster group and paper-test some adjustments before reintroducing these bets into our recommendations.

All Bets up to 30th June 2012 Banded in Probability Cluster Groups

The best performing groups were the 70-80% and the 80-90% probability clusters, which contain primarily “Dutch” lay bets, Over 1.5 goals bets, and Under 3.5 goals bet recommendations. Low odds, but high profits.

Final Proclamation

Overall, we can say that everything ran as expected.

There were no real nasty surprises and the games played out more or less statistically correct. Of course, appreciating that not every recommended bet can win helped us construct a betting strategy to make money in spite of this truism.

As explained in the article Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage it is unrealistic to hope that every bet wins. For example, a 64.6% probability means precisely a 64.6% expected hit-rate; no more and no less! The VALUE lies in the odds (price), not in the hit-rate.

In the whole seven months since we started publishing match previews, not a single month has finished in the red and, as we have mentioned on several occasions throughout this website, successful value betting is purely a numbers game.

Although value betting on statistics is one of the most reliable approaches to football betting (and pretty much the same strategy the bookmakers employ), individual events have a habit of producing erratic results from time to time. Therefore you must never drift away from your staking plan and never chase losses.

Well, that’s the end of our public experiment for now. The time it takes to analyse each game, pick out bet recommendations, publish each article, and follow up with monthly summaries is, we can assure you, a huge burden on our time. However, we have proved a point over the last seven months that with the right tools and the right application it is definitely possible to make money with value betting.

Go back one month to May’s summary