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Combinatorics and Probability Theory in Football Betting
Introduction to Combinatorics and Probability Theory
This article is a step-by-step guide explaining how to compute the probability that, for example, exactly 4 out of 6 picks win, or how to calculate the likelihood that at least 4 of 6 bets...
Liquidity at Betting Exchanges – Which are the Best?
For serious bettors and professional traders, betting exchanges are the most convenient and reliable platforms.
Bookmakers are often very quick to limit stakes and/or close accounts of successful customers, or void individual bets or even whole...
The Gambler’s Ruin Explained – Fair Coin Flipping
One of the phenomenons of probability is Gambler’s Ruin. The most common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected zero value to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent...
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Introduction
The terms probability, expectation, likelihood, chance and hit rate are all closely related, and express more or less the same thing. The difference is that before a game one talks about ‘chance’, ‘probability’,...
Value Betting versus Gut Feeling
Surprisingly, it seems that there are many sports bettors who make their selections in much the same fashion as the multitude of people who select random numbers on their weekly lottery slips.
Whilst the lottery player may opt for personal numbers...
How to Calculate Average Odds in Football Betting
Sometimes it is necessary to figure out the average odds from a set of betting odds which can then be used as the basis for further calculations. For example, computing deviation and variance.
When using odds in European format (decimal) you...
What is the Ideal Sample Size for Accurate Predictions?
A common problem faced by data analysts is to decide upon the required sample size.
This can be estimated by using various calculations and distribution functions. However, even if a statistician is readily available, the answer is not necessarily...
1×2 Full-Time Table of Records – Value Bet Detector with H2H history
The 1×2 Full-Time table of records is a compilation of HDA data from 417 completed Value Bet Detector spreadsheets from 24 countries around the world. (League games with H2H history).
The data set represents a statistically significant...
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion
A question we often receive from readers is why the Value Bet Detector requires 10 years’ head-to-head (H2H) data and why it is optimised to address matches where there has been a minimum of six H2H meetings in this time frame.
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1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
Numerous Web sites and forums pay homage to the Lay The Draw strategy with prolific threads from supporters claiming to have found extremely lucrative 1×2 betting systems. Therefore, I have decided to explore lay the draw betting in detail...
