If you are not already aware, Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables are a powerful analytical tool to use for 1X2 (Home-Draw-Away-Favourite-Underdog) portfolio betting.

The level of detail contained in the tables even stretches to distinguishing between the first and second halves of a league season, where markedly different patterns of results are usually found.

Likewise, to help you plan holidays around your Over/Under Cluster Tables, please take note of the dates below. The number of teams these apply to in each league is governed by the available historical statistics: each team must be playing in at least a sixth consecutive season in its league during 2023-24.

2023-24 Winter Leagues

Start Date: 28th July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 9th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 17th February, 2024

Finish Date: c.18th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (22 matches each team). The league then splits into two groups of six: Championship and Relegation groups. Here, the six teams in each group play each other twice, home and away (a further 10 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Bundesliga HDAFU Table.

The Bundesliga Cluster Table applies to eight teams guaranteeing a minimum number of 80 games for betting (41.67% of all applicable games) and a maximum number of 88 games (45.83%), depending upon the nature of the six-team splits (i.e. min. 4/4; max. 6/2 or 2/6). All end-of-season Euro League and Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 28th July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 26th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 20th January, 2024

Finish Date: 16th March, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (30 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Jupiler Pro League HDAFU Table.

The Jupiler Pro League Cluster Table applies to 11 teams guaranteeing 110 games for betting (45.83% of all applicable games) during the regular season. All end-of-season Euro League, Championship Group, and Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 21st July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 3rd December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 18th February, 2024

Finish Date: c.18th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (22 matches each team). The league then splits into two groups of six: Championship and Relegation groups. Here, the six teams in each group play each other twice, home and away (a further 10 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Superligaen HDAFU Table.

The Superligaen Cluster Table applies to seven teams guaranteeing a minimum number of 60 games for betting (31.25% of all applicable games) and a maximum number of 72 games (37.50%), depending upon the nature of the six-team splits (i.e. min. 4/3 or 3/4; max. 6/1 or 1/6). All end-of-season Euro League play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 26th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 30th December, 2023

Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (38 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the EPL HDAFU Table.

The EPL Cluster Table applies to 12 teams guaranteeing 132 games for betting (34.74% of all games).

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 20th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 14th January, 2024

Finish Date: 18th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Ligue 1 HDAFU Table.

The Ligue 1 Cluster Table applies to 11 teams guaranteeing 110 games for betting (35.95% of all games).

Start Date: 18th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 20th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 13th January, 2024

Finish Date: 18th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Bundesliga 1 HDAFU Table.

The Bundesliga 1 Cluster Table applies to 11 teams guaranteeing 110 games for betting (35.95% of all applicable games). All end-of-season Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 19th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 7th January, 2024

2nd Half Starts: 14th January, 2024

Finish Date: 26th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (38 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Serie A HDAFU Table.

The Serie A Cluster Table applies to 12 teams guaranteeing 132 games for betting (34.74% of all games).

Start Date: 1st July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 13th November, 2023 (Apertura)

2nd Half Starts: c.5th January, 2024

Finish Date: c.2nd May, 2024 (Clausura)

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Liga MX HDAFU Table.

The Liga MX Cluster Table applies to 15 teams guaranteeing 210 games for betting (68.63% of all applicable games). All end-of-season Apertura and Clausura play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 17th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 12th January, 2024

Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Eredivisie HDAFU Table.

The Eredivisie Cluster Table apply to eight teams guaranteeing 56 games for betting (18.30% of all applicable games). All end-of-season Euro League and Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 21st July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 16th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 10th February, 2024

Finish Date: 25th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Extraklasa HDAFU Table.

The Extraklasa Cluster Table apply to nine teams guaranteeing 72 games for betting (23.53% of all games).

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 14th January, 2024

2nd Half Starts: 21st January, 2024

Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Primeira Liga HDAFU Table.

The Primeira Liga Cluster Table applies to seven teams guaranteeing 42 games for betting (13.73% of all applicable games). All end-of-season Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 14th July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 20th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 20th January, 2024

Finish Date: c.25th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (30 matches each team) before splitting into Championship (top 6) and Relegation groups (bottom 10). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Liga 1 HDAFU Table.

The Liga 1 Cluster Table applies to six teams guaranteeing a minimum number of 39 games for betting (12.38% of all applicable games) and a maximum number of 60 games (19.05%), depending upon the nature of the splits (i.e. min. 3/3; max. 6/0). All end-of-season Relegation and Euro League play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 21st July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 9th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 2nd March, 2024

Finish Date: 25th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (30 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Premier League HDAFU Table.

The Premier League Cluster Table applies to nine teams guaranteeing 72 games for betting (30.00% of all games).

Start Date: 5th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 2nd January, 2024

2nd Half Starts: 27th January, 2024

Finish Date: c.12th May, 2024

Each team plays each other three times (33 matches each team) before splitting into Championship and Relegation groups, where each team plays a further one match against all other teams in their group. All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Premiership HDAFU Table.

The Premiership Cluster Table applies to eight teams guaranteeing a minimum number of 96 games for betting (42.11% of all applicable games) and a maximum number of 100 games (43.86%), depending upon the nature of the splits (i.e. min. 4/4; max. 6/2 or 2/6). All end-of-season Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 20th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 3rd January, 2024

Finish Date: 26th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (38 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the La Liga Primera HDAFU Table.

The La Liga Primera Cluster Table applies to 11 teams guaranteeing 110 games for betting (28.95% of all games).

Start Date: 22nd July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 16th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 20th January, 2024

Finish Date: c.12th May, 2024

Each team plays each other three times (33 matches each team) before splitting into Championship and Relegation groups, where each team plays a further one match against all other teams in their group. All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Super League HDAFU Table.

The Super League Cluster Table applies to six teams guaranteeing a minimum number of 51 games for betting (22.37% of all applicable games) and a maximum number of 60 games (26.32%), depending upon the nature of the splits (i.e. min. 3/3; max. 6/0 or 0/6). All end-of-season Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 24th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 7th January, 2024

Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (38 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Süper Lig HDAFU Table.

The Süper Lig Cluster Table applies to 11 teams guaranteeing 110 games for betting (28.95% of all games).

Minimum Number of Applicable Games (all 17 leagues): 1,592

Maximum Number of Applicable Games (all 17 leagues): 1,604

Nonetheless, Soccerwidow still receives a considerable number of direct visits, which means our loyal readers continue to check for updates and new content.

This article is for you, our dedicated supporters.
 

A New Chapter Begins

We are thrilled to announce the revamping of our website and the launch of a new subdomain: shop.soccerwidow.com. The Soccerwidow team has been hard at work to make this new space more user-friendly, visually appealing, and organized for our loyal readers.

We listened to your feedback and implemented changes to improve navigation and give the site a fresh look. We believe you’ll find our revamped store a more enjoyable and efficient shopping experience.
 

Explore Our Enhanced Shop

As you explore shop.soccerwidow.com, you’ll discover our carefully curated selection of products designed to support your sports betting journey.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, our range of resources is tailored to help you develop your skills and make informed decisions. We’re committed to continuously enhancing our offerings and providing exceptional value to our readers.
 

 
 

Shape the Future of Soccerwidow

With the launch of our revamped store, we want to make sure we continue to meet and exceed the expectations of our dedicated readers. That’s why we’re eager to hear your feedback about the new shop and any suggestions for how Soccerwidow can develop in the future.

Our aim is to create an experience tailored to your needs and interests, and your input is invaluable in achieving that goal.

As a token of our appreciation, we’re excited to offer our readers an exclusive opportunity.

During this event, we’ll discuss the future of Soccerwidow, unveil exciting updates, and engage in a live Q&A session with our team.

This event is our way of showing appreciation for your continued support and giving you a unique opportunity to shape the future of Soccerwidow.
 

Our Humble Beginnings and the Path Forward

It’s been over a decade since Soccerwidow was born out of the personal football frustration of its founder. Soccerwidow’s Bloke, her husband, spent the entirety of 2010 glued to the TV watching English football, even while they lived in the beautiful, adventure-filled Uganda. This experience in Uganda inspired Soccerwidow to create the Soccerwidow blog, with a mission to make football matches less exciting for her husband through accurate analyses and predictions.

That was the past…

Soccerwidow has since evolved into a platform that empowers bettors worldwide through education, resources, and tools.

Soccerwidow is a mission to demystify bookmaker maths and revolutionise sports betting education. We strongly believe that the more informed bettors become, the fewer gambling-addicted individuals there will be in the world.
 

 
 

By providing comprehensive knowledge and insights, we aim to help bettors make more informed decisions and, ultimately, minimise the risks associated with gambling. When bettors understand the underlying mechanics of sports betting, they can approach it more strategically, reducing the likelihood of developing unhealthy gambling habits.

Soccerwidow’s goal is to foster a community of responsible, well-informed bettors who can enjoy the excitement of sports betting without falling into the trap of addiction.
 

Thank You for Your Support

Your support has been the driving force behind Soccerwidow’s success, and we can’t thank you enough for sticking with us through thick and thin. We hope you enjoy exploring the new shop at shop.soccerwidow.com and attending our exclusive online event. We look forward to hearing your feedback and suggestions and are eager to continue learning and growing with you.

Together, let’s embark on this exciting journey to shape the future of Soccerwidow and redefine sports betting education. We’re confident that, with your help, we’ll achieve new heights. Don’t forget to leave a comment on this article to secure your invitation to our exclusive online event.
 

A Sneak Peek at the Exclusive Online Event

During the online event, you can expect to:

1. Gain insights into upcoming features and improvements on the Soccerwidow platform.
2. Learn about our new educational initiatives and how they will benefit you in your sports betting journey.
3. Have a chance to ask questions and provide feedback directly to the Soccerwidow team.
4. Network with fellow sports betting enthusiasts and share your experiences, tips, and strategies.
5. Participate in exclusive giveaways and contests for event attendees.

We can’t wait to share these exciting updates with you and hear your thoughts on the future of Soccerwidow.

Remember to leave a comment on this article to secure your invitation to this exclusive event. See you there!

But which staking plan is the best?

The answer is: A simple and straightforward staking plan. Nothing complicated; just plump for flat staking with or without a ratcheting mechanism.

All other staking plans contain one or another problem and I can guarantee that there is definitely not a single staking method in existence, which makes a failing betting system work.

Therefore, firstly work out a sound betting system and then secondly, adhere to a modest and plain staking plan. Keep the money management as simple as possible because it is already difficult enough to keep up with everything that goes into monitoring a betting system. You will perhaps also have to think about juggling your bank between various bookmakers and exchanges if needs be.

In today’s article I’m going to show you a fuss-free staking plan using the example of our 2017-18 Winter League portfolio .

As mentioned, it’s a combination of a flat staking plan and a ratcheting mechanism.

A Definite Edge and a Sound Staking Plan Work Wonders!

With the help of our HDAFU Tables and, in particular, their Inflection Point graphs, it is now easy to develop a portfolio of bets with a definite mathematical edge.

And in conjunction with our chosen staking plan, the portfolio of 2017-18 Winter Leagues performed as follows:

Image 1: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit Curve with Ratcheting

We started with a betting bank of 4,000 units and finished after 47 weeks and 518 bets with a total 38,925 units.

Of course, it wasn’t a smooth ride the whole time. Especially at the start of the season, the first 15 weeks (up to 27/10/2017) were very tough. 153 bets were placed but the result was pretty much a zero sum game. It did eventually rise to 5,562, but for all the time invested and work performed it was quite a frustrating experience.

From this point until the end of December, results were better and the ratcheting system helped the bank up to 13,792 units. But then another rough period started.

Nevertheless, it was worth it! A very long slog (47 weeks!) for a profit of 34,925 units. A great result vindicating the soundness of both the portfolio of bets and its staking plan.

Just as a side note, if you want to learn more about how the portfolio was originally compiled and how it performed in detail then you will find our report here: System Football Betting: 2017-18 Winter League Report – 35k in 138 Days

But let’s get back to the topic of the article: proper staking…

Image 1 showed you the performance of the portfolio using ratcheting, but if we would have applied a flat staking plan only (without ratcheting), then the Profit/Loss curve would have looked like this:

Image 2: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit Curve Flat Stakes

You can see straight away that the simple flat stakes (without ratcheting) also produces profits, but the curve is much flatter – here, the betting bank only increases from 4,000 units to 13,909 units. Flat staking lacks the exponential element of a ratcheting system to grow a bank, but on the other hand, it is much easier on the nerves as I will show you later in this article.

But first here are a few definitions…

What is Flat Staking?

Flat staking simply means that you wager on every bet exactly the same amount of money, without any deviations. But this may include some consideration towards the risk of each bet. You may therefore wish to stagger your stakes according to the implied probability (odds) of winning each bet:

• VERY SIMPLE: decide to stake a flat 100 units on every bet in the portfolio.
• SIMPLE: decide to stake a flat 100 units on bets with odds below 1.50, 50 units on bets with odds between 1.50 and 2.50, and so on.

But whichever of the two options you choose, you are in effect still ‘flat staking’.

What is Ratcheting?

Ratcheting is a progressive money management approach where the size of the stakes move by degrees, upward or downward, depending upon results.

(A) If your portfolio wins, increase the stakes!

With ratcheting the stakes are variable and depend on the size of the bank. However, the percentage of the ratchet (in our case 2.5%) always remains constant.

If at the end of a round of matches (or week) your bank has grown, all bets placed the following week should be adjusted to the higher bank.

For example, if the bank increases from 4,000 to 4,500, the stake increases from a flat 100 units to 112.50 per bet in the following round (i.e. stake remains at the base level set of 2.5% of bank).

The percentage of the bank used per bet stays ‘flat’.

(B) If your portfolio loses, reduce the stakes!

Nevertheless, you also need to guard against bankruptcy. If your portfolio experiences a losing round, reduce the stakes for each bet but not before the bank drops to 75% (or below) of its highest point.

You may think that this method is simply a stop-loss strategy, but it isn’t quite the same. I will explain further down in the article why we used 75% as the margin for our downwards ratcheting and not any other number.

Should you lose at the end of a round (week), continue to play each bet with the same, unchanged stake until the bank’s previous high has shrunk by 25%.

This means that in the event of a short-term loss, the stake continues to refer to the bank at the highest level it has reached so far and does not adjust to the lower bank until the bank has dropped to 75% of its peak size.

Only then is the stake recalculated (reduced) and the ratchet process begins again.

To be clear on this point, in the event of a run of losses, the stake size per bet always remains in relation to the highest bank to date and should not decrease until the threshold of 75% of highest bank ever is reached. (If you have for example, a very bad start to a campaign, the 75% trigger point may well apply to your starting bank).

Only then will the stakes be adjusted (reduced) to this lower bank size. This will then be your new starting bank. All further bets from then on refer to this bank and the ratcheting process begins again.

Example 1:

The bank drops from 4,000 to 3,800: The stakes remain unchanged, flat 100.00 (= 2.5% of the starting bank of 4,000) for the next period (round/ week).

After the next round the bank closes with 3,520. Still, the stakes remain unchanged, flat 100.00, using the previous bank of 4,000 for its calculations.

Only if the bank closes with under 3,000 (75% of 4,000) will the stake sizes be recalculated.


Example 2:

Using the starting bank from our previous example, the bank has dropped to 2,800. This has now become the new starting bank and the stake is recalculated:

2,800 x 2.5% = 70.00

With the reduction of over 75% of the bank from its former highest level of 4,000 (100 unit stakes) to 2,800, the stake size is recalibrated and remains flat at 70 units.

Afterwards, if the bank starts to rise, you will need to begin increasing the stakes again.

Say, after the next round you bank has gone up to 3,150.

3,150 x 2.5% = 78.75

The adjusted ‘new’ stake is now 78.75 and remains in place until either the bank drops to 75% of 3,150 (2,362) or the bank grows above 3,150, when stake amounts will be 2.5% of the new, larger bank size.

Flat Staking vs. Ratcheting

We have seen that ratcheting is purely a method of ‘flexible flat staking’ to encourage exponential bank growth.

The idea is to start off with stakes of 100 units and, if everything goes according to plan, by the end of the season the stake sizes should hopefully be in the multiples of 100 units.

Looking at the other side of the coin, the losses during this time will be in the same proportions, and not everyone is comfortable when losing a few thousand units in an afternoon, even if its ‘just winnings’ from previous rounds.

Bear this in mind before you decide to try ratcheting. Are you a disciplined person? Are you able to function when you have a few thousand riding on a few matches?

If your answer to these questions is ‘no’, then please do yourself a favour and stick to flat staking only! Do not try ratcheting, at least not to the end, and stop increasing your stakes when you reach the limits of your comfort zone (or have achieved target).

Bank Development during Rough Periods

Even the soundest portfolio of bets will experience bad periods where one bet after another (or even one round after another) is losing. It happened to us from the 09/12/2017 (2017 week 50) – 11/03/2018 (2018 week 11). Three months of more losing rounds than winning ones! Tough indeed!

Here are two images that show the profits/losses together with the bank development during this rough period using flat stakes versus ratcheting:

Image 3: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Using Flat Stakes only

Image 4: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Ratcheting the Stakes

Both staking plans produced profits but, to put the choppy ride into even better perspective, you will need to note that the results summarised in Image 4 were by this time already based on a ratcheted bet size of 344.80 units (as at 09/12/2017), and this has grown to 707.82 units by 11/03/2018.

The period spanned more than 15 weeks with nine losing rounds (60%). From the 23/12/2017 – 12/01/2018 there were many losses, not huge, but enough to be nerve-racking!

The biggest losing round of bets with flat staking was: – 578
The biggest losing round of bets with ratcheting was: – 4,091

Tough! This again highlights the difference in volatility between flat staking and ratcheting. Steel hearts only required here!

However:

The biggest profit round with flat staking was: 1,785
The biggest profit round with ratcheting was: 6,155

Great! But please don’t get carried away too much!

Moral #1: If you are a person that finds it challenging to keep emotions under control, stick to flat stakes! The best laid plans fall to pieces if you can’t cope during the really rough times.

It is always better to be a modest winner than a brave loser.

Emotional Rollercoaster when Winning or Losing

In the previous section you saw the monetary effects of winning and losing when using flat stakes only or when ratcheting. However, the differences become even more obvious if you look at the profits/losses in relation to the bank:

Image 5: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit/Losses in relation to the bank: Flat Stakes

When staking flat our example portfolio only produced a maximum loss of – 8.1 % of the bank. The winnings too were pretty ‘modest’: a maximum of 20.7%.

Ratcheting involves a far greater rollercoaster. The maximum loss was as high as – 15.2 % of the bank. The maximum winnings were: 52.6%.

Image 6: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit/Losses in relation to the bank: Ratcheting

Moral #2: As I have already said, simple flat stakes (without ratcheting) are much easier on the nerves than ratcheting. The exponential growth a ratcheting system produces goes hand-in hand with exponential losses.

Stop-Loss Margin when Ratcheting

In the article Bank Management & Stake Size I explained the ‘scientific’ calculation of the percentage of starting bank that should be used for betting.

It was based on the average of the three largest losing rounds (weeks):
12%, 15.2% and 14.6% >>> average: 13.9% (rounded: 14%).

We can use this figure of 14% to calculate the stop-loss margin. You see, everything is somehow connected. The stake size, the stop-loss margin, and much more.

To be able to sit through a run of at least two losing rounds in a row where the bank is depleted by 14% each time you need to calculate as follows:

86% x 86% = 73.96%

Let’s round this up to 75% to be more risk averse (safety conscious).

Hence, if your portfolio loses, reduce the stakes but not before the bank drops to 75%. It is very unlikely to happen but it may, you never know. By the way, our bank didn’t drop a single time below the 75% threshold during the Winter League 2017-18 Campaign.

Please bear in mind that all the calculations and explanations are based on a portfolio of just over 500 bets with an expected hit rate of around 50%. Should your portfolio be different (no two are alike), then you will need to carry out all the calculations using your own figures.

If you cannot calculate this for yourself in such great detail then either stick to the 75% threshold, or perhaps lower it to 65% (if you have a lower risk aversion) as advised in previous articles.

Moral #3: Better to be safe than sorry. If you are new to ratcheting it’s probably better if you play with smaller stakes than the calculations actually permit (e.g. 1.5% of your betting bank instead of 2.5%) then you won’t reach the stop-loss margin too quickly.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this article and learned something about sound staking and ratcheting. However, if you are still unsure on any point, please feel free to ask any questions via the comment section below.

The main goal is to let your winnings grow your bankroll. Obviously, the first chunk of it is going to come from your own pocket, but once you get good at the art of betting, you�ll essentially be playing with other people�s (or the house�s) money.

With the help of these tips, we�ll show you how to build your bankroll the right way…

DO: Stick to your guns!

Are you particularly good at a certain game? Although it may be tempting to branch out and start learning other games, you should stick to your guns. That way, you�ll be using your existing knowledge to its maximum potential.

Poker Bankroll management, for instance, requires you to master a certain buy-in level before moving on to a higher one. It�s a self-imposed limitation that keeps you from biting off more than you can chew.

In essence, it keeps you honest in terms of where you stand, skill-wise. It also incentivizes you to master a certain variant of the game (such as Hold�em or Omaha) and not to be inconsistent.

DON�T: Bet too much

Betting is all about getting a solid grasp of risk versus reward and learning to recognize when to push forward and when to hold back. The idea is to never blow your entire bankroll on a single bet regardless. At the most, it should be a tiny, pre-defined percentage of it. Although different people have different ideas about the exact number, most would agree that it shouldn�t exceed 5%.

A single bet should only ever be a small percentage of your entire bankroll. (Picture Source: Pixabay.com)

DO: Take advantage of promotions

Typically, any sportsbook or casino will entice you to make a bet through them by rewarding you with lucrative bonuses. It pays off to study the conditions of the deal and let the bonuses work for you as you�re growing your bankroll.

DON�T: Foster unrealistic expectations

Forget about making thousands from a $5 or �5 bet. Unlike what�s portrayed in the movies and popular culture, it doesn�t work like that in real life. In fact, one of the unexpected downsides of a pro gambler’s life is the routine of daily grinding. In many ways, it�s much like a day job. You get up, do the work, rinse and repeat. Remember that success equals consistency over time rather than getting lucky with a single bet.

DO: Take a break often

Whether winning or losing, you�re more than likely to experience wild emotional swings and go on tilt. Even the most hardcore seasoned pros are not immune to this, so be wary of it. The solution is defined by responsible gambling guidelines by taking a break often, especially when things aren�t going your way. By doing this, you�ll stop yourself from making emotional decisions that often result in suboptimal betting patterns.

DON�T: Withdraw your winnings too soon

When building your bankroll, you want to see it grow as quickly as possible. As tempting as it may be to withdraw your winnings, how are you going to reach your goals if you unavoidably ameliorate your bankroll as a result? Think of it like building a business, a process that�s referred to as bootstrapping. When working with limited finances, it�s in the entrepreneur�s best interest to funnel all the profits back into growing the company rather than pocketing them.

Conclusion

Whether you�re into sports betting or casino games, stick to the above-mentioned guidelines and you�ll be setting yourself up for success. Keep in mind that succeeding in this field is a marathon, not a sprint � you�re in it for the long haul.

In July 2020, after the first wave of the coronavirus, when most of the leagues resumed their games Soccerwidow performed a public experiment to see whether old statistics could be still used and if the Over/Under Betting coursebook remained potent.

If you followed our live experiment last year with real money then you would have increased your starting bank by over 50% in just 25 betting days.

Now, many months have passed and the leagues have just about returned to their regular schedules, albeit without fans in most stadiums. What is quite obvious to all observers, as well as punters, is that there are now more away wins than previously: ‘home advantage’ seems to have shrunk.

But what about the goals?

Spain soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

Poland soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

Italy soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

EPL soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

BL1 soccer stats 2019-20 to 2020-21

Above are the statistics for the four leagues we tested in our portfolio last summer: Italy, Spain, Poland and the EPL. These were four randomly chosen leagues and our campaign covered the last six weeks of the respective seasons.

This time we are adding the German Bundesliga 1. Firstly, because the BILD (the German broadsheet newspaper) is going to publish our picks on its website and secondly, to allow our course buyers (who are in the possession of the German Bundesliga Cluster Table courtesy of their purchase) to follow the calculations and reasoning.

This season’s campaign will again follow the last six weeks of each featured league and we will once again concentrate on Over/Under selections using our Cluster Tables.

The rules of engagement are the same as last time (for comparison purposes) and are explained a little further down in this article.

What’s pretty obvious this season is that in many leagues the ‘home advantage’ seems to have suffered due to the empty stadiums. Apart from the Bundesliga, the other four leagues, Poland, Spain, Italy and the EPL, have seen considerably fewer home wins than in the previous season – for example, a drop of 17.8% in the EPL thus far.

However, despite the shift in the home and away wins the total goals per match have hardly changed. Italy so far this season is down just -0.7% of goals, Spain -0.4%, Poland -2.7% and the EPL -2.2%. The highest change in the observed goals per match is in the German Bundesliga: -6.9%, although they have exactly the same number of home wins as the previous season.

What is interesting here is that the Bundesliga home goals per match do not show a high deviation – only -3.6% – but the away goals scored per match have dropped by -11.0%. In the other leagues, except in Italy, the away teams are currently scoring more goals on average.

Whatever the reason is for these changes it cannot be solely down to the missing crowds at games. It’s truly fascinating – just have a look at the numbers in the above graphs and make your own conclusions.

Slideshow Picks

The picks for the respective day will appear here around 1 p.m. (sometimes earlier) as well as the results of the previous matchday. For the German audience, the picks are also published by the BILD, so no one will be able to tell us that we don’t publish our picks in advance! 🙂

You may have to press the F5 button to refresh this page if you don’t see the picks for the day. However, please note that there won’t be picks on every day as not every day of the week has qualifying matches.

Sadly, we have had to suspend our live experiment in association with Bild.de on 5th May 2021 after just 18 rounds of games. We were spending an awful amount of time compiling the data and making the picks entirely for free. Bild.de was using the novelty of a female pundit (yours truly) to attract readership and to entice them into buying subscriptions for the full version of its website. Indeed, every Soccerwidow featured article on Bild was attracting between 20-50,000 views each. Yet, an organisation as large and as powerful as Bild was arrogant enough to take our work for free with no guarantee of payment at the end of it. Apparently, we were supposed to be grateful for the exposure we received as a result of having our hard work taken advantage of. Sorry Bild, but that’s not the way to build lasting associations or bonds with your business partners… We are off to spend our time on more fruitful labours!

Day 18 Picks & Results: 2021.05.03

Odds from (and published on SW): 23:22 GMT+1, 2nd May

Day 17 Picks & Results: 2021.05.02

Odds from (and published on SW): 23:08 GMT+1, 1st May

Day 16 Picks & Results: 2021.05.01

Odds from (and published on SW): 22:02 GMT+1, 30th April

Day 15 Picks & Results: 2021.04.30

Odds from (and published on SW): 10:06 GMT+1, 30th April

Day 14 Picks & Results: 2021.04.26

Odds from (and published on SW): 10:47 GMT+1, 26th April

Day 13 Picks & Results: 2021.04.25

Odds from (and published on SW): 21:54 GMT+1, 24th April

Day 12 Picks & Results: 2021.04.24

Odds from (and published on SW): 22:24 GMT+1, 23rd April

Day 11 Picks & Results: 2021.04.23

Odds from (and published on SW): 09:47 GMT+1, 23rd April

Day 10 Picks & Results: 2021.04.22

Odds from (and published on SW): 09:41 GMT+1, 22nd April

Day 09 Picks & Results: 2021.04.21

Odds from (and published on SW): 14:11 GMT+1, 21st April

Day 08 Picks & Results: 2021.04.20

Odds from (and published on SW): 17:58 GMT+1, 19th April

Day 07 Picks & Results: 2021.04.18

Odds from (and published on SW): 21:49 GMT+1, 17th April

Day 06 Picks & Results: 2021.04.17

Odds from (and published on SW): 12:25 GMT+1, 17th April

Day 05 Picks & Results: 2021.04.16

Odds from (and published on SW): 18:25 GMT+1, 15th April

Day 04 Picks & Results: 2021.04.12

Odds from (and published on SW): 12:58 GMT+1, 12th April
Next Picks due 16/04/2021

Day 03 Picks & Results: 2021.04.11

Odds from (and published on SW): 22:09 GMT+1, 10th April

Day 02 Picks & Results: 2021.04.10

Odds from (and published on SW): 10:37 GMT+1, 10th April

Day 01 Picks & Results: 2021.04.09

Odds from (and published on SW): 09:12 GMT+1, 9th April

*Best (Odds): The odds at the time the picks were made/published


The expected probability and zero odds are calculated exactly as described in the coursebook using the Cluster Tables.

The original selection criteria was:

1. the chance to win the bet has a Probability between 60% and 80%, and
2. the expected Yield is between -15% and 30%
3. the Profitability of the bet is between -50% and 95%
4. the Disparity of goals between the home and away team is between -25% and 30%

According to this season’s statistics so far, the following additional rules were to be applied:

• ITALY >> Avoiding ‘Over 2.5’ bets
• SPAIN >> ‘Over 1.5 goal’ will be preferred even if they have a negative value
• POLAND >> Under Bets will be preferred
• EPL >> Under Bets will be preferred
• BL1 >> Being careful to place Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 bets

If all the above criteria were applied and there were 2 bets to choose from, then the last knock-out criteria were:

• bet has a positive value, and if not,
• the bet with the lowest negative value in the 60% – 80% cluster is selected
• only 1 bet per match is selected

HOWEVER…

After the first four betting days, our bank reduced by almost 25%.

Rather than waiting for the stop loss margin (60% of the bank) to check the stake amounts and prevent total loss of the bank, we reappraised the portfolio and changed the selection rules with effect from 16th April 2021 (betting day 5).

We are no longer concentrating exclusively on the 60-80% probability range.

We will now focus on two specific ranges of over/under options: from OVER 1.5 goals to OVER 5.5 and UNDER 3.5 goals to UNDER 0.5 (0:0).

If there are two bets with a very similar probability in a single game, such as O 1.5 and U 3.5, both will be played with the stake evenly distributed between them. (For example, if the higher odds option represents 2.5% of the bank, then this amount is split 1.25% on one result and 1.25% on the other).

If there are several qualifying bets in a single game, for example, O 1.5 – O 2.5 – O 3.5 – O 4.5 – O 5.5, all bets that contain value are played. In this case, we will stick to the maximum stake of the bet with the highest probability and split this equally between all of the bets.

With this approach, more bets with higher odds will enter into the scope of the portfolio – for example, Under 0.5 and Over 5.5 goals.

Here is an example calculation of a bet that would have gone really well:

The basis for calculating the stakes has changed from this:

• Odds up to 1.1: 5% from the bank
• Odds between 1.1 – 1.16: 4% from the bank
• Odds between 1.16 – 1.39: 3.8% from the bank
• Odds between 1.4 – 2.25: 2.5% from the bank
• Odds between 2.25 – 7.50: 1.5% from the bank
• Odds over 7.50: 0.5% from the bank

…To this with effect from 16th April 2021:

• Over 1.5 Goals = 3.5% of bank
• Over 2.5 Goals = 2.5% of bank
• Over 3.5 Goals = 1.5% of bank
• Over 4.5 Goals = 1.0% of bank
• Over 5.5 Goals = 0.5% of bank
• Under 0.5 Goals = 0.5% of bank
• Under 1.5 Goals = 1.0% of bank
• Under 2.5 Goals = 1.5% of bank
• Under 3.5 Goals = 2.5% of bank

Stakes are always rounded up to the nearest whole number.

However, not only are the stakes calculated according to the risk but a ratchet system will also be applied. This means that the stakes increase with each round in accordance with the highest bank total achieved and remain at that level even if the bank then decreases again. The stakes are only reduced if the bank reduces to 60% of the starting bank (i.e. starting bank loses 40%).

Starting Bank (at the start of the experiment on April 9, 2021): 3,000.00
Highest Bank (9th April 2021): 3,000.00
Bank will increase each day if there are winnings; bank for calculating stakes will only reduce when it drops below 1.600,00 (60% of starting bank).

Duration of the Experiment

The first pick is due on Friday 9th April 2021 and we will continue until the end of the seasons in our five selected leagues.

So, we are looking to cover seven full weekends and the midweek games in-between them. Whether we continue publishing picks using Summer Leagues thereafter will be decided at a later date.

Important information about the risk!

Even if we trust our own coursebook and cluster tables and are pretty sure that the published picks will lead to a profit, we urge you to play it safe by not risking more money than you can afford to lose.

Please stick to the above staking plan and do not carry out any experiments with the staking. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you and increase stakes if there is a good spell going on. And please don’t chase any losses if there are a few bad days in a row. Please always remember that we are playing statistics and that they never line up in a regular manner.

It is interesting to see that the total goals in the games haven’t really changed despite the fluctuations of home and away wins but what we do not know for sure is whether the Cluster Tables, which are based on the statistics of the last five full seasons of the teams involved, are robust enough to cope with this change.

Therefore, we urge you once more, be careful! Should you follow our picks with real money, then please stake only what you are prepared to lose and stick strictly to the staking plan!!!

Fingers crossed that things go our way again!
Enjoy & share, Your Soccerwidow

The experiment was prompted by the outbreak of the coronavirus and the fact that many leagues suspended their games for a period of a few months and afterwards resumed in empty stadiums. We wanted to see whether historical statistics could still be used and what could be observed after this unexpectedly long break.

The General Outcome of 25 Betting Rounds and 77 Bets

The bank grew from an initial figure of 3,000.00 units to an impressive total of 4,617.56 using ratcheted stakes during the course of just one month.

It was very pleasing to see that the Cluster Tables performed so reliably well despite the coronavirus outbreak and the consequent very long pauses in our featured leagues:

Table 1: Corona experiment July-August 2020
Profit/Loss graph after 25 rounds

During this 33-day period a total of 77 bets were placed within the 60% to 80% probability range.

Here’s the distribution of those bets and the Profit/Loss achieved split into clusters of 2% probability increments:

Table 2: July-August 2020 – Over/Under experiment P/L results graph by Probability

From the above chart, you can see that all but one of these clusters produced a profit. However, the number of bets varied in each cluster. For example, there were four bets with a probability between 60% and 62%, and nine bets in the 62% to 64% cluster, and so on.

77 bets is a very small sample size and this becomes even smaller when trying to form conclusions about each of the 2% clusters. However, this is a practical way of maintaining control if you are using the Cluster Tables for your own betting.

Indeed, for monitoring purposes, we recommend that you do sort your bets in small probability clusters and judge the synergy of your portfolio on the basis of its entire performance. You will find it easier to make decisions if there are obvious areas that are letting down the results.

How the Bets were Chosen

The bets were chosen using our Cluster Table tools that are the product of our coursebook teachings. With these tables, you can very quickly determine the expected probabilities of Over/Under bets for any forthcoming match involving the featured teams (i.e. only those playing in at least their sixth consecutive season in that league – identified in the tables).

To help explain how the bets were chosen, here’s an example using the very last pick of our experiment:
Sassuolo vs. Udinese on 02/08/2020

Below is an extract from the Cluster Table used to make this pick:

Table 3: Calculating the Over/Under bets
Sassuolo vs. Udinese 02/08/2020

Sassuolo was the favourite to win the game at odds of 1.95; Udinese was the underdog at odds of 3.84 (odds taken at 06:57 GMT+1 on the day of the match).

With these odds, the HO/AO quotient was calculated:

Using the 2019/20 Cluster Table for Italy, the over and under probabilities for Sassuolo home matches and for Udinese away matches were found using the appropriate HO/AO cluster containing the value of 0.5078.

These percentages were then copied into an extra ‘helper’ spreadsheet (i.e. the two top lines of the tables on the left).

Using the two probability percentages collected from both teams, the average was calculated (Over 0.5 bets example):

This percentage was then converted into the expected Zero odds:

This process was then repeated for all Over/Under bets.

The third line of our helper spreadsheet is for manual entering of the market odds being offered for these bets.

As we were limiting ourselves during the experiment to bets within the 60% to 80% cluster, there was no difficulty choosing the bets for this particular match as there was only one visible within this probability cluster. The bet ‘Under 2.5 goals’ with a probability to win of 68.2% (corresponding Zero odds: 1.47) was being offered at outstandingly good odds of 3.10.

By the way, this bet won as the match ended in a 0:1 result. Of course, there was an element of ‘luck’ involved as on paper it also had a 31.8% probability of losing. Also, the expected ‘Profitability’ as well as the expected ‘Yield’ were artificially high, which would normally have led us to dismiss this bet as viable.

I will summarise these two very important considerations next in the article but if you wish to understand the concepts of profitability and yield in more detail, buying and working through the coursebook is your only option. It simply is too vast a subject to summarise in an article and is not the sort of information I wish to give away for free

Further Reading:
How to Use Soccerwidow’s Over/Under Betting Cluster Tables
5 Simple Steps to Win Over and Under Betting

Profitability (Value I)

Profitability is the relation of profit/loss to the money spent. In other words, profitability is an index for measuring financial success (operational profit) in relation to the costs (money spent) of running the venture.

When applied to gambling, profitability measures betting proficiency in relation to its expenses.

Profitability Formula:

If you wish to learn a little more about what profitability in betting means, here’s an article with the definitions and some example calculations: Stake, Yield, Return on Investment (ROI), Profitability – Definitions and Formulas

The nice thing is that it is actually possible to predict the expected profitability if you have calculated the Zero odds and know the market odds of the bet you are thinking of placing.

You can see the results of these calculations in Table 3 (Sassuolo vs. Udinese calculations) in the row below the market odds. Try to come up with these numbers yourself!

Of course, all these calculations are about probabilities and a future outcome; they aren’t set in stone and results always come with a deviation. I cannot dive deeper into the matter of deviation at this stage but once again recommend the coursebook, where you will find almost a third devoted to explaining this quite difficult topic in step-by-step detail.

However, what we will look at here is the graph of the distribution of Profit and Losses from our Over/Under experiment by expected Profitability.

For those of you who didn’t follow the experiment as it progressed… During July 2020 we published almost daily Over/Under picks with probabilities between 60% and 80%.

Often, there would be only one bet apparent in this cluster (like in the example Sassuolo vs. Udinese) and we would choose this bet without taking any ‘value’ into consideration or worrying about the expected ‘Profitability’ or expected ‘Yield’.

Indeed, the profitability and yield might have carried negative values, but the picks would still be included in our portfolio and published.

The reason for this is that when you calculate Zero odds and consider the deviation, the market odds may be higher or lower but still be ‘fair’.

It seems like a paradox but having negative ‘value’ attached to a bet calculation doesn’t mean that it is a bet without ‘value’.

Table 4: July 2020 – Over Under experiment P/L results graph by expected Profitability

You can see from the graph above that at its beginning the P/L curve wanders around the -200 mark and then starts rising. The starting point for the rise is around 95% and it stops at -40%. This can be used as a knock-out criteria when selecting bets to place:

Advice for those of you who are actively using the Cluster Tables for investment purposes…

If you wish to play a similar system to the picks showcased in our experiment, then please choose your bets by sticking religiously to the 60% to 80% probability cluster and use the expected Profitability as a knock-out criterion.

If you have only one bet in this probability cluster, and it carries an artificially high profitability value like the one shown in this article (Sassuolo vs. Udinese U2.5 goals), then you need to make the tough decision whether or not to play the bet or leave it alone.

Yield (Value II)

Yield is the Profit/Loss ratio applied to the total capital employed (total staked). When applied to gambling, Yield measures betting effectiveness compared to total turnover. (The interest received from securities, i.e. stakes)

Yield Formula:

In football betting, any yield over 7% is considered to be a very good result. Be careful when you hear people talk about their betting strategies or offering betting systems for sale with a high yield. This is intended to impress the reader, but a high yield is always an indication of high-risk strategies employed!

Like with the expected profitability in the section above, it is also possible to calculate the expected yield simply by having calculated the Zero odds and knowing the market odds.

Please have another look at Table 3 (Sassuolo vs. Udinese calculations) in the row below the Profitability. Again, see if you can match these figures with your own formulas or calculations.

Once again, high yield systems mean high risk. Usually, you will need to play many bets to move forwards with systems of this nature. The reason is simple: High risk means low probability and that means a very irregular distribution of winning bets – and lots of losers along the way!

You can see this for yourself in the graph below, which represents the experiment’s distribution of Profit and Losses by expected Yield:

Table 5: July 2020 – Over Under experiment P/L results graph by expected Yield

You’ll see from the curve that expected Yield over 30% didn’t produce any profits and neither did an expected Yield below -15%. That there even was a negative expected Yield is because of deviation.

This factor can be used as a second knock-out criteria when choosing bets:

Advice for those who actively use our Cluster Tables…

Don’t take our guidance here as gospel. Of course, you can choose whichever probability clusters suit your personal acceptance of risk. You don’t need to stick religiously to the 60% to 80% range that we used in this public experiment.

But, ideally, what you then need to do is to select only matches in your chosen clusters (you can do this retrospectively) and analyse their performance by expected Profitability as well as expected Yield. In doing this, you should then be able to build your own knock-out criteria and adjust accordingly.

I really hope you enjoyed this article and learnt something along the way. Please don’t hesitate to ask any questions in the comment section below.

Lastly, keep faith in statistics! Despite the pandemic, every league will continue playing on a professional level and hence, past statistics can be applied to predict future performance. How else do you think bookmakers set their odds?

Note:
And if you need further incentive to investigate our Cluster Tables further, don’t forget that the 169-page Odds Calculation coursebook comes with a free German Bundesliga Cluster Table. Buy the coursebook, snap up a bargain in the process, and begin betting on the over/under markets straightaway!

The opening month of the 2020/21 Premier League season was one of the most entertaining in living memory.

Round two, spanning the 19th-21st of September, was particularly outstanding with 44 goals scored across ten fixtures – for the fans it could only be described as pure entertainment.

This tally broke the existing record from February 2011 for the most goals scored in a single Premier League weekend under the 20-team format (number of goals that weekend: 43).

With such a high quantity of matches making an impact on the ‘Over/Under’ sportsbook, there is inevitably a ripple-effect on other staples of Premier League wagering, such as HT/FT, handicap markets and BTTS (Both Teams to Score).

Feet Up, For the Big Match! (photo courtesy of www.pxfuel.com)

It almost seems that the absence of fans from Premier League games may lead to a shift in several key markets… Really?

Here are a few thoughts. Feel free to share yours in the comment section.

Will Over/Under 2.5 Goals ‘Benchmark’ Become Less Focal?

As can be seen from the wide variety of live sportsbook betting markets out there, there is now ample opportunity to explore a number of niche markets related purely to goal scoring.

Given the normal average of goals per week across previous seasons, it is widely accepted that using 2.5 goals as a division between ‘high’ and ‘low’ scoring encounters provides an optimal, and easy-to-negotiate meridian.

But perhaps further weekends of high scoring games with questionable defending from once-reliable teams may lead to Over/Under 3.5 goals becoming the new baseline in goal betting?

Naturally, the coming months will see player stamina impacted by European involvement for last season’s high-flyers and, for the newcomers, the continuing culture shock and adjustment needed to survive the rarified atmosphere of the Premier League.

With the glut of games ahead the use of the ‘2.5’ figure to make vital decisions in the total goals market may return to a balance.

What does seem certain is another boom in people backing both teams to score within Premier League multiples, accumulators and proposition bets. So too will there be a greater scrutiny upon teams that are often involved in such matches, such as Leeds United, who found themselves at both ends of two 4-3 scorelines, in consecutive games at the start of this campaign:

Can a Change in Underdog Results lead to HT/FT Impact?

Again, this depends on continued shock results, such as Crystal Palace and Leicester winning by multiple-goal margins at Manchester clubs United and City respectively.

The absence of home-biased crowds, whether complete or partial shutouts, has undeniably played its part. When using last season as a source of information for future betting decisions, it has become common practice for many punters to split leagues into before and after the lockdown began.

Last season, there was little fluctuation in the Premier League, except for away underdogs drawing less often and winning or losing more without a hostile home crowd to face. The hosts’ lack of a ‘twelfth man’ (the crowd) seems to be a leveller, helping unfancied away teams achieve unlikely results at normally difficult venues.

A more attacking-style of play is now evident and it is becoming rarer to see away underdogs defending deep and attempting to play on the counter-attack. This sea change will undoubtedly be significant for the HT/FT and Goal Time markets, though public opinion will continue to play its part.

Backing goals earlier in live play can only become more of a phenomenon if underdogs continue to be adventurous from the start. And so too will backing late goals, as the effects of an energetic start are felt more amongst squads less accustomed to the rigors of Premier League action.

Is this the same Across Europe?

On early evidence, the unprecedented inflation of importance on the ‘Over 3.5’ threshold will certainly transfer to other major European leagues. For example, Bayern Munich’s opening two Bundesliga games illustrated this newfound sense of unpredictability in the Over/Under market. The two games produced a total of 13 goals – an 8-0 win and a shock 4-1 defeat.

Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena (photo courtesy of www.pxfuel.com)

Both games paid out for anyone backing Over 5.5 goals, which represents the point at which the goal odds begin to surge upwards, regardless of how good the favourite is compared to the underdog.

The opening Saturday of Serie A also produced a number of high scores, with three of the four matches producing over 4.5 goals, and threatening the long-held stereotype that Italian football is focused more on defence.

Last season, the Bundesliga was also notable for seeing a decline in favourites losing away from home, with only 12.2% of teams losing to home underdogs between May and August.

Other leagues have seen a similar trend, albeit less drastically, and this certainly provides an opportunity for bettors. With or without fans, home advantage is usually observed as a factor for travelling favourites in many odds starting off longer than they otherwise would be. In turn, away favourites will perhaps become more of a staple than ever when it comes to placing the bets.

Towards the end of this summary article, we also discuss the statistical evidence of the lockdown effects as matches continue to be played without fans.

The Systems Employed

For the purposes of this test nine systems were selected across four leagues in close geographical proximity to one another.

Please note that it is normally our mandate when selecting systems for real-play portfolios only to pick the best single system in a league (e.g. whole-of-season or first half-season or second half-season), or best two systems (first half-season and second half-season).

However, for the purposes of this live simulation, we trialled a number of different first half-season systems from the four leagues. This was done because the choice of leagues in which to generate bets for this experiment was extremely limited at the time the simulation began.

Immediately below you will find screenshots taken from the actual 2020 Summer League HDAFU Tables showing each system in detail. The systems were determined after scrutinising the profit/loss curves shown in the dedicated ‘Inflection Points by HO/AO quotient’ tab in these tables. (Home Odds divided by Away Odds).

(Clicking on all of the images below enlarges them in a new tab):

HDAFU Table Finland Veikkausliiga: 2x Draw Systems

Note that although the draw odds of these two systems overlap, it is important to understand that they apply to two separate tranches of games (i.e. the HO/AO quotients do not overlap). System (a) represents smaller quotients indicative of games involving short-priced home favourites. System (b) applies to quotients above 1 indicating games where the away team is the shorter-priced favourite. All nine of the systems in this simulation are non-overlapping to provide stand-alone comparisons.

HDAFU Table Screenshots – Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 1x Draw & 1x Favourite System

HDAFU Table Screenshots – Norway Eliteserien: 1x Draw, 1x Favourite System & 1x Home Win System

HDAFU Table Screenshots – Sweden Allsvenskan: 1x Draw & 1x Favourite System

Results of the 2020 ‘Live’ HDAFU Tables Trial

Profit Loss Curve

The graph below shows the final profit/loss curve after 44 rounds of betting (i.e. separate days) comprising a total of 129 bets:

HDAFU Tables – Summer Leagues 2020 Live Simulation: Bank Development

If you were following our live picks on a daily basis you will remember that on August the 3rd, after 26 betting rounds (91 bets), we decided to cut two systems from the draft and monitor instead the results from the favourite win systems in Iceland and Sweden – both were underperforming badly and stood little or no chance of recovering into profit taking into consideration the likely number of remaining expected bets.

The 129 picks therefore included bets in both of these systems up to and including the 2nd of August but no further.

System-by-System Analysis

HDAFU Tables – Live Simulation: 1X2 Portfolio Analysis

What do the results of this live picks simulation tell us?

In truth, not much, but it does prove that a profit can be made in a live environment from selecting systems based upon past-performance using the HDAFU Tables. As stated above we would never have chosen to play for real multiple first half-season systems in the same league – Always stick to the single best historical performer and construct portfolios based around these top performers in each of the leagues of your choice.

Although hindsight is a flexible tool, choosing just one system from each of the four leagues would have been relatively easy as the best four stood out markedly from the rest:

• FINLAND: Draw system at and between HO/AO quotients of 0.405 & 0.543. The corresponding draw odds between 3.39 and 3.60 were a less risky bet than the wider odds range of the other draw system. In other words, the system we would have played contained games that were more homogeneous (consistent) with each other.
• ICELAND: Draw system at and between HO/AO quotients of 0.152 & 0.33. The corresponding draw odds here were between 4.11 and 5.26. Again, it was considered to be a more consistent set of bets than the other system, which relied on choosing home or away favourites – literally two systems in one.
• NORWAY: Favourite system at and between HO/AO quotients of 0.445 & 0.67, corresponding to odds between 1.90 and 2.22. We would have picked this over the home win system option purely because the favourites were all going to be the home team anyway (HO/AO quotient below 1): the home win system option was more risky and wholly represented by underdogs at home. The historical profits shown in the analysis for the favourite were also more recent than those posted by the third option, the draw system.
• SWEDEN: Draw system at and between HO/AO quotients of 0.383 & 0.904 (corresponding draw odds 3.45 to 3.76). This was a far better set of historical data than betting on the favourite showed. Profits for the draw system were present in each of the previous five seasons and three times larger than those for the favourite system.

These four systems on their own (three winners and one loser) would have netted an overall profit of 556.66 units.

Coronavirus Effects on Home Performance

The four leagues chosen were all Nordic countries to provide some form of meaningful comparison.

Finland and Norway produced 1X2 results much in line with previous seasons but, in both leagues, the draw percentage was a little down and the away win was slightly up. But nothing statistically significant enough to say that playing with no crowds has affected the trends:

Finland & Norway: First Half-Season 1X2 Results Comparison

However, in Iceland and Sweden, the picture was different:

Iceland & Sweden: First Half-Season 1X2 Results Comparison

In both leagues, it is quite clear to see that home wins have dropped significantly, with draws and away wins increasing in frequency as a result.

Although it is too early to draw conclusions after just half a season, this is a situation that suggests monitoring and will perhaps be the subject of a follow-up article if trends continue in this manner.

Get the Analysis Spreadsheet!

If you would like the accompanying Excel spreadsheet (541Kb) for this article please click on the button below. It is priced at £9.99 and includes a host of useful formulas including the Excel logarithm formula to calculate the expected Longest Losing Streak once the expected hit-rate is known. Other analyses included:

• Full, country-by-country breakdown of each system and its performance
• First half-season Home, Draw and Away result comparison with previous five seasons
• Charts, graphs and tables representing the final results
• Template for identifying the bets, which can be tailored to your own requirements
• The usual array of Excel formulas for your own system selection purposes including monitoring
• …and much, much more!

HDAFU Table Discount Offer

In addition, you will receive a lifetime discount code with your product delivery note providing £35.00 off of any purchase of three or four HDAFU Tables (i.e. bridging the gap to the previous minimum five-table discount code). If you want a gentle introduction to the world of HDAFU Tables, or wish to target your leagues in smaller bundles, then this offer is for you!

Click here to get your Analysis Spreadsheet:

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Important Guidance on Picking Systems from a League

Despite choosing multiple systems from the four leagues for the purposes of the live test, our guidance for compiling a 1X2 portfolio from the HDAFU Tables remains unchanged: when selecting (i) a first half-season system and/or a second half-season system or (ii) a whole-of-season system, choose only one option from each league.

Choosing both a first half and second half-season system in the same league is completely viable (i.e. two systems in a single league), but don’t mix and match by implementing a whole-of-season system plus a first and/or second half system or multiples of any of these types in the same league:

HDAFU Tables: Viable Combinations of Chosen Systems in Any One League – One Tick = One System




]]> https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/results-of-our-2020-summer-league-hdafu-tables-real-time-test/feed/ 2 https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/2020-summer-league-hdafu-tables-coronavirus-trial-live-picks/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/2020-summer-league-hdafu-tables-coronavirus-trial-live-picks/#comments Wed, 05 Aug 2020 04:02:31 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6718 more »]]> This article will be updated at least once a day until the first halves of the league seasons highlighted finish. Clear your browser cache and then press the F5 key to refresh.



Live Simulation: Nine HDAFU Systems in Four Leagues

Many of you are asking what effects coronavirus is having on football betting. Whilst we envisage that the disruptions caused will not have any noticeable change on long-term statistical trends, it is impossible to say with any certainty what will happen in these unprecedented times.

Therefore, we have decided to carry out a very public experiment using 1X2 systems taken from our most recent set of HDAFU Tables – those for the 2020 Summer Leagues, limited to four leagues that will hopefully play out the entirety of their seasons, albeit a little late in starting (or restarting).

We will publish the picks a day or so in advance and keep you abreast of progress. We have decided to suspend our own betting for the time being, so this exercise will be purely a simulation with a ratcheted staking plan in operation and is for first-half-of-season systems only.

The four leagues are:

• Finland Veikkausliiga (2x draw systems)
• Iceland Úrvalsdeild (AKA Pepsideild) (1x draw system; 1x favourite win system)
• Norway Eliteserien (1x draw system; 1x home win system; 1x favourite win system)
• Sweden Allsvenskan (1x draw system; 1x favourite system)

Portfolio Expectations

• Portfolio Probability = Hit Rate 47.07%
• Mathematical Advantage (Expected Yield) = 27.61%

This collection of nine systems, therefore, represents a MEDIUM-RISK portfolio



Two Different Approaches:

1X2 HDAFU Profit/Loss Curve Betting & Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Cluster Table Betting

In tandem with this HDAFU test, we are doing the same with our Cluster Tables in four Winter Leagues that are due to finish at the beginning of August. Picks will be published daily and will appear on our German-language sister site, Fussballwitwe.de. Don’t understand German? then try Google auto-translation into English here.

In short, both are value betting systems, but with different methods.

1X2 bets are system bets: you choose a system and place the bet whenever the selected criterion fits – in this case, the quotient arrived at by dividing the current home odds by the corresponding away odds.

Over/Under bets are based on calculating the betting odds for each game (according to the historical statistics over the five preceding seasons) and placing the bet where there is value. Here, we will consciously choose the bets according to probabilities as well as their profitability/yield potential. (Over/Under course readers will know what I am talking about here!)

The 1X2 bets are much easier to play; you make the selection criteria once (i.e. formulate the system at the beginning), using the historical information and profit curves contained in our HDAFU Tables. These also provide a risk assessment and simulation of how future betting expectations might go. Once the parameters of each system are known, it only takes a short time to find the appropriate bets for each game round. However, good value usually lies only in low probability bets (longer odds such as the draw, or underdog win), and, therefore, it is a better idea to mix these selections with higher probability bets (favourite wins), to avoid long losing streaks.

With Over/Under betting you can decide which probabilities you want to play depending on your personal risk attitude. Higher probabilities = lower risk of losing the bet = easier for the nerves. The challenge here, however, is that in order to gain this extra level of precision you have to calculate each individual game individually.



Slideshow of Value Betting Picks

The picks for the respective day will appear here around noon/13.00 GMT +1, including the results from the previous day.

Please click on the arrows at either end to scroll through and view the entire history of the picks.

Hover over the table with your cursor for pop-up day-to-day notes.


Day 057
Picks & Results: August 26th, 2020




Day 055
Picks & Results: August 24th, 2020




Day 054
Picks & Results: August 23rd, 2020




Day 053
Picks & Results: August 22nd, 2020




Day 052
Picks & Results: August 21st, 2020




Day 049
Picks & Results: August 18th, 2020




Day 048
Picks & Results: August 17th, 2020




Day 047
Picks & Results: August 16th, 2020




Day 046
Picks & Results: August 15th, 2020




Day 045
Picks & Results: August 14th, 2020




Day 044
Picks & Results: August 13th, 2020




Day 043
Picks & Results: August 12th, 2020




Day 041
Picks & Results: August 10th, 2020




Day 040
Picks & Results: August 9th, 2020




Day 039
Picks & Results: August 8th, 2020




Day 037
Picks & Results: August 6th, 2020




Day 036
Picks & Results: August 5th, 2020




Day 034
Picks & Results: August 3rd, 2020




Day 033
Picks & Results: August 2nd, 2020 - W36 L55 = 39.56% hit rate




Day 032
Picks & Results: August 1st, 2020 - W33 L53 = 38.37% hit rate




Day 030
Picks & Results: July 30th, 2020 - W32 L50 = 39.02% hit rate




Day 029
Picks & Results: July 29th, 2020 - W31 L50 = 38.27% hit rate




Day 027
Picks & Results: July 27th, 2020 - W30 L46 = 39.47% hit rate




Day 026
Picks & Results: July 26th, 2020 - W27 L45 = 37.50% hit rate




Day 025
Picks & Results: July 25th, 2020 - W22 L43 = 33.85% hit rate




Day 023
Picks & Results: July 23rd, 2020 - W21 L43 = 32.81% hit rate




Day 022
Picks & Results: July 22nd, 2020 - W19 L41 = 31.67% hit rate




Day 021
Picks & Results: July 21st, 2020 - W17 L38 = 30.91% hit rate




Day 019
Picks & Results: July 18th, 2020 - W16 L38 = 29.63% hit rate




Day 018
Picks & Results: July 18th, 2020 - W12 L35 = 25.53% hit rate




Day 017
Picks & Results: July 17th, 2020 - W12 L34 = 26.09% hit rate




Day 016
Picks & Results: July 16th, 2020 - W11 L31 = 26.19% hit rate




Day 015
Picks & Results: July 15th, 2020 - W10 L30 = 25.00% hit rate




Day 013
Picks & Results: July 13th, 2020 - W9 L29 = 23.68% hit rate




Day 012
Picks & Results: July 12th, 2020 - W8 L26 = 23.53% hit rate




Day 011
Picks & Results: July 11th, 2020 - W8 L22 = 26.67% hit rate




Day 008
Picks & Results: July 8th, 2020 - W8 L20 = 28.57% hit rate




Day 007
Picks & Results: July 7th, 2020 - W7 L18 = 28.00% hit rate




Day 006
Picks & Results: July 6th, 2020 - W7 L17 = 29.17% hit rate




Day 005
Picks & Results: July 5th, 2020 - W6 L16 = 27.27% hit rate




Day 004
Picks & Results: July 4th, 2020 - W6 L10 = 37.50% hit rate




Day 003
Picks & Results: July 3rd, 2020 - W4 L9 = 30.77% hit rate




Day 002
Picks & Results: July 2nd, 2020 - W4 L8 = Hit Rate 33.33%




Day 001
Picks & Results: July 1st, 2020 = 36.36% hit rate




Note: Following the interim report detailed in our report after 91 picks, two systems have been dropped (Sweden favourite win; Iceland favourite win) and are shown from Round 27 (August 3rd) for monitoring purposes only.

Want this slideshow larger? Either hold down the ctrl key on your keyboard and press the + (plus) key until you reach a comfortable size. (Afterwards, hold ctrl and press the − (minus) key to reduce your view). Alternatively, with a scroll wheel mouse, hold down the ctrl key on your keyboard and push the scroll wheel forwards. Hold ctrl and reverse the direction of the scroll wheel to reduce the view. The URL bar at the top of your screen will guide you in returning to 100% normal size.



Staking Plan

The starting bank is 3,000 units and the basis for calculating the stakes is as follows:

• Odds below 1.10: 5% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 1.10 – 1.16: 4% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 1.16 – 1.39: 3.8% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 1.40 – 2.25: 2.5% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 2.26 – 7.50: 1.5% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds over 7.50: 0.5% of highest bank achieved*

This is the same staking plan used by the counterpart Cluster Tables experiment, but you should note that the chosen HDAFU systems are likely to utilise only the three lines highlighted as all odds satisfying our criteria will be 1.30 or over and will never exceed 7.50.

Not only will the stakes be scaled according to risk, but a ratchet system* will also be employed. Stakes will begin based on the starting bank of 3,000 units and will continue to be so until there is an increase in the bank after a day’s games. Thereafter, it will be calculated based on the highest end-of-day bank total achieved (even if the actual bank drops below 3,000 units in future). Only if the starting bank reduces by 40% will the stakes be scaled back. (i.e. A stop-loss mechanism is activated if the bank falls below 1,800 units).

N.B. All stake calculations will be rounded-up to the nearest whole unit (e.g. 77.19 becomes 78).



Duration of Experiment

As mentioned, we will be running the HDAFU 1X2 systems calibrated for the first half of the season only in each of the selected four leagues, starting on the 1st of July, 2020.

Picks will appear in our slideshow until the midway point of each league is reached.

At this stage, with the coronavirus interruptions, no certain dates have yet been confirmed as to when each league will reach its natural break (if indeed there is one), but we will advise in advance of each system drawing to its conclusion.



Final Whistle

We have no idea how things like the lack of a crowd, the apparent nullification of home advantage, players being able to hear instructions shouted between themselves and from the sidelines, referees no longer being mobbed over their decisions by over-enthusiastic and supporter-conscious players, lack of fitness, or psychological factors, will affect the game we all know and love.

It is safe to say that we are as much in the dark as you are concerning the future of football and sports betting.

The unknowns are too many to take great risks and, as stated previously, we are not chancing our money on these picks – the systems we are using together form a ‘live’ experiment based on our previously successful HDAFU Tables and Cluster Tables.

If you wish to play these picks yourself, then please do so with money you can afford to lose and try to stick to our stake recommendations.

Let’s hope for something to cheer us all up during these very strange times!

]]> https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/2020-summer-league-hdafu-tables-coronavirus-trial-live-picks/feed/ 3 https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/interim-report-after-91-picks-26-betting-rounds-hdafu-tables/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/interim-report-after-91-picks-26-betting-rounds-hdafu-tables/#comments Tue, 04 Aug 2020 12:11:56 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6847 more »]]> 2020 Summer League HDAFU Tables: Coronavirus Trial – ‘Live’ Picks

Since the 1st July, we have been running a live picks experiment using systems selected from our HDAFU Tables to see if Covid-19 is affecting results one way or another.

As of Sunday, 2nd August 2020, a total of 91 picks had been published in advance of kick-off times in four different ‘summer’ leagues.

The HDAFU systems chosen are all 1st half-season systems only, with the experiment due to finish on the 26th of August when the latest scheduled of these, the Finnish Veikkausliiga, reaches its midway point.

The four leagues are:

• Finland Veikkausliiga (2x draw systems)
• Iceland Úrvalsdeild ~ AKA Pepsideild (1x draw system; 1x favourite win system)
• Norway Eliteserien (1x draw system; 1x home win system; 1x favourite win system)
• Sweden Allsvenskan (1x draw system; 1x favourite system)

Expectations for the portfolio as a whole were as follows:-

Portfolio Probability = Hit Rate 47.07%
Mathematical Advantage (Expected Yield) = 27.61%
Total number of bets expected until the end of the 1st halves in each season = 196

So far, from the expected number of 196 bets, 91 have been played (46.4%), with 36 winning (hit rate: 39.6%). The hit rate is minus 6.9% of expectations. Later in this article, we will see if we can identify a culprit (or culprits) in our chosen systems.



Betting Bank Development

The Portfolio Probability or average expected hit rate was 47.07%. This probability is very close to throwing a dice (i.e. 50/50) and, as with a dice roll, an element of luck is required to see your choice of heads or tails coming up more often than not.

Unfortunately, luck was not on our side as the experiment developed…

It did have a promising start and grew from 3,000.00 units (starting bank) to 3,213.54 units in the first four days before diving into a long run of unprofitable rounds. This illustrated in the following graph showing the running total:



After day four, the portfolio saw a losing streak of 11 betting rounds (rounds 5 to 15: July 5th to July 18th, 2020) taking the bank down to its lowest point of 2,177.79 units (67.8% of the highest bank), almost activating our Stop-Loss mechanism (set at 60% of starting bank), where stakes would have been reduced on future bets.

The ratchet system we used kept the stakes constant using the high-water mark of 3,213.65 units (i.e. highest point the bank reached) as the gauge against which to calculate our exposure on each bet. Read here for more explanations of what a ratcheted staking plan actually is: Sound Staking: Flat Stakes & Ratcheting

The ratcheting method of staking helped the bank to recover faster as soon as results once again began to go our way – it is now, after a truly bumpy ride, at a new high of 3,282.73.

Lesson #1: For those who use the HDAFU Tables for betting, sit tight and give yourself a chance! Do not give up too quickly! Continue religiously choosing the picks according to the criteria you set when choosing your systems. More often than not, your bank will eventually recover.

Always remember: You are playing statistics that behave randomly; your luck may come in big chunks of good or bad, or may be more regularly distributed.




System Performance Review

Of course, with the deep trough at the start of our portfolio, we went digging to see what may have been the root cause.

You can see in the graph below the nine different systems and the number of bets played as at August 2nd, 2020: e.g. Finland Draw (II) had 11 bets played at this date. The graph also compares the expected hit rates and the observed hit rates of each system.



Most of the systems have, after 26 betting rounds, achieved their expected hit rates.

The systems that have developed hit rates far below expectations are:-

• Sweden Allsvenskan: Favourite system
• Iceland Úrvalsdeild: Draw system & Favourite system

Below is a graph showing the Profit/Loss made by all nine systems after 26 match days:



As you can see from looking just at the observed hit rates, the ‘Favourite Win’ systems of Sweden and Iceland are producing deficits.

The Draw system in Iceland isn’t doing as bad and may even recover. But, we must be careful as the originally expected hit rate was low at 37.7% and from 11 expected bets five of these have already been played.

The main culprits that seem to be affecting the portfolio as a whole are obviously the ‘Favourite Win’ systems in Sweden and Iceland.

Nevertheless, it is too early to conclude that Covid-19 is affecting these systems, although it would be easy to associate the lack of crowds and thus, reduced home advantage, with the failure of these home win dominated systems. After all, the Norway ‘Favourite Win’ system is performing quite well.

To shuffle the pack, we will remove the two losing systems from our running total calculations and separate them from the other picks so we can monitor their progress in isolation. If you are following our Sweden and Iceland favourites with real money then perhaps hold fire for the time being and stick to the other seven systems.

Lesson #2: For those who use the HDAFU Tables for betting, review your systems once per month (or at least after every 100 bets)!

If you have obvious duds bringing the house down, don’t be afraid to remove them from your betting portfolio.

Of course, you can, if you wish, try to replace the losing systems with other systems. It doesn’t matter if you start and stop a system during the middle of any season: Starting or Pausing Your 1X2 Portfolio in the Middle of a Season

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