Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 4th August, 2012…

Dirtying Clean Sheets

Both teams are looking to build on their opening day wins and a victory for either will see one 100% record maintained and the other dashed. It is of course too early to say which team is ‘in form’ but both kept clean sheets in their openers and will certainly look to shutout their opponents again come Sunday’s match.

In the analysed head-to-heads between these two adversaries the average goals per game is currently 3.5, which is quite a number bearing in mind the fairly small sample size (eight fixtures at this ground in the last 10 years). The goals have been fairly evenly distributed too with 12 in the first halves of games and 16 in the second halves (the average goals per game by half-time is exactly 1.5).

Zulte-Waregem’s last 25 home games in the Jupiler League have witnessed 68 goals at an average of 2.72 per game (1.0 at half-time). They outscored their opponents 36-32 in these games.

Gent’s last 25 away games in the league have seen 77 goals at an average of 3.08 (1.4 at half-time). They outscored their opponents 43-34 in these games.

Salient statistics for the football betting predictions

Head-to-Head (Zulte-Waregem hosts, Gent visitors, 8 matches in all competitions since 18.12.2005):
Full-time: Both Teams Scoring = 7 times (87.5%)
Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals = 4 times (50%)
Half-time: Gent victorious only twice (25%)

Zulte-Waregem’s last 25 Jupiler League home games since 15.10.2010:
Full-time: Both Teams Scoring = 18 times (72%)
Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals = 7 times (28%)
Half-time: Away team victorious = 5 times (20%)

Gent’s last 25 Jupiler League away games since 24.10.2010:
Full-time: Both Teams Scoring = 17 times (68%)
Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals = 11 times (44%)
Half-time: Gent victorious = 7 times (28%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Back Full-time: Over 2.5 Goals (Odds: 1.8; ‘true’ odds: 1.43; Probability of winning the bet: 50.9%; Value: 83.33%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Lay Half-time Result: Gent (Odds: 3.35; ‘true’ odds: 4.08; Probability: 75.5%; Value: 21.8%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Back Full-time: Both Teams To Score = “YES” (Odds: 1.66; ‘true’ odds: 1.27; Probability: 78.8%; Value: 31.5%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: Back Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals (Odds: 3.0; ‘true’ odds: 2.33; Probability: 43%; Value: 50.88%).

Bet WON

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Zulte-Waregem 3-1 Gent
HT – Zulte-Waregem 2-0 Gent

• Forward to next match analysis: 6th August 2012 – Norwegian Tippeligaen – Stabæk v SK Brann
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