Euro 2012 Final: Spain v Italy – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 30th June, 2012…

The ‘Valueless’ Final:

Barring the FIFA World Cup final itself, the final of the UEFA European Championship is the highest profile match in football and some would argue the tournament as a whole is usually of better quality than the World Cup. Everyone knows that Spain are just one win away from entering the history books by becoming the first team to win three major tournaments in a row, but it is still a fact that no national team has ever achieved this.

This game is a similar proposition to the one Italy faced against Germany, with a seemingly invincible foe on current form to be overcome, but like Germany, Spain have never beaten Italy in either regulation or extra time in six previous tournament meetings (4 Draws, 2 Italian wins), although they did triumph 4-2 on penalties in the Euro 2008 quarter-finals.

Looking at the betting odds for this game, many people will have made good profits already from Italy’s price having seen it start at around 5.0 when the market opened, and traded down to a point where it can be laid today (29 hours before kick-off) for 4.0. Not bad work if you can get it! It looks like trading may well be the safest form of making money from this game as understandably, due to its high profile and plenty of accompanying statistical data, the markets have been analysed to the point where there is negative ‘value’ available on most of the reasonably high probability betting options.

We must therefore advise that ‘value’ betting on this game will be like finding safe passage through a minefield of unattractive options, where not even a coin toss will be weighted in your favour. If we have put you off then fine, we don’t blame you for wanting to keep your powder dry for more advantageous opportunities. If you feel you must gamble with this match, then read on, we do have something for you…

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Spain’s last 30 competitive matches abroad (since 18.6.2008):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 20 times (66.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-0 (win); 4-0 (win); 1-1; 2-0 (win)
• Average Goals Per Game: 2.43

Spain’s games on neutral turf within their last 30 competitive matches abroad (19 matches since 18.6.2008):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 9 times (47.4%)
• Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-0 (win); 4-0 (win); 1-1; 0-0
• Average Goals Per Game: 1.74

Italy’s last 30 competitive matches abroad (since 6.9.2006):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 24 times (80%)
• Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 2-1 (win); 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-1; 1-1; 1-1
• Average Goals Per Game: 2.33

Italy’s games on neutral turf within their last 30 competitive matches abroad (15 matches since 6.9.2006):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 10 times (66.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 2-1 (win); 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-1; 1-1; 2-3 (loss)
• Average Goals Per Game: 2.20

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Back Full-time Over 1.5 Goals (Odds: 1.65; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 1.46; Probability: 68.5%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Backing Spain at full-time carries ‘value’ at the current price of 2.26, although the ‘zero’ or ‘true’ odds are 2.12 equating to less than 7% value. The chance of success is 47.1%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Backing both teams to score: “No” carries a little value at odds of 1.72, and the ‘zero’ odds here are 1.66. The value on offer is therefore less than 4% but the probability is 60.2%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: If you fancy a 99% probability bet then backing full-time under 5.5 goals at odds of just 1.02 might appeal, and it even carries value, but just 1%…

Bet WON

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Spain 4-0 Italy
HT – Spain 2-0 Italy


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

• Forward to next match analysis: 5th August 2012 – Belgian Jupiler League – Zulte-Waregem v Gent
• Back to previous match analysis: 28th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Germany v Italy