Euro 2012: Greece v Czech Republic – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 11th June, 2012…

Greasy Pole for the Czechs?

Recovery for the Czechs from the mauling they received at the hands of Russia on Friday can only begin with a victory over Greece, but they will need to do something they haven’t achieved in three previous meetings against the Greeks, score a goal.

For Greece, they can already ponder wistfully on a recovery of sorts following their plucky fightback against the Poles. However, they know their last match in the group is against Russia and anything less than beating the Czechs will probably see them journey home at the earliest opportunity.

It’s therefore a must win game for both teams but the trouble for each will be in breaking down the other’s defensive line. both have conceded less than a goal a game in their last 30 competitive matches abroad; Greece 26 (ave. 0.87), Czech Republic 28 (0.93).

Allied to tight defence is both side’s profligacy in front of goal during recent major tournaments. Greece have struck just three times in their last nine tournament matches on neutral soil (drawing a blank on seven occasions). Note, we are not counting the Poland game as this was effectively a ‘home’ match for the co-hosts. The Czechs have fared little better with seven goals from seven equivalent games (drawing a blank on three occasions).

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Greece’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 4.6.2005):

• Full-time Result = Greece wins: 13 (43.3%); Draws: 8 (26.7%); Defeats: 9 (30%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): D-W-D-W-W-D
• Both teams scoring: 10 times (33.3%)

Greece’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 4.6.2005):

• Full-time Result = Greece wins: 1 (11,1%); Draws: 1 (11,1%); Defeats: 7 (77,8%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): L-W-L-L-L-L
• Both teams scoring: 3 times (22,2%)

Czech Republic’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 8.9.2004):

• Full-time Result = Czech Republic wins: 15 (50%); Draws: 6 (20%); Defeats: 9 (30%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): L-W-W-D-L-W
• Both teams scoring: 9 times (30%)

Czech Republic’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 8.9.2004):

• Full-time Result = Czech Republic wins: 1 (14.3%); Draws: 1 (14.3%); Defeats: 5 (71.4%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): L-D-W-L-L-L
• Both teams scoring: 3 times (42.9%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Lay Full-time Result: Draw (Odds: 3.35; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 45,6; Value: 69,1%; Probability 82,1%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Back Both teams to score = “No” (Odds: 1.88; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.46; Value 28.9%; Probability: 68.5%).

Bet LOST

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Greece 1-2 Czech Republic
HT – Greece 0-2 Czech Republic


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

• Forward to next match analysis: 14th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Italy v Croatia
• Back to previous match analysis: 11th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – France v England