Euro 2012: Greece v Russia – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 15th June, 2012…

Greece Release or Russia to Crush Her?

The grim reality for Greece is that they must beat the Russians by two clear goals to have any chance of qualifying for the quarter-finals. There is a tiny ray of hope as their opponents have lost by at least this margin on four occasions in their last 30 competitive matches abroad (13.3%), to Spain (twice), England, and Portugal.

However, the Greeks have managed only three such victories in their last 30 equivalent games (10%), and against far less illustrious opponents in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Luxembourg, and Latvia. The last time Greece met Russia was on neutral territory at Euro 2008, with the Russians prevailing 1-0.

Statistically speaking the omens do not favour Greece who have mustered just one victory in 10 games on neutral soil in a period dating back exactly seven years to the day of this Group A match. The solitary win was 1-0 against Nigeria at World Cup 2010, one day short of exactly 2 years ago. During the same seven year period, the Greeks lost eight of the other nine matches in this sequence and in all 10 games they scored just four times and conceded 16.

Russia’s two defeats by Spain mentioned above, 4-1 and 3-0, both came at Euro 2008 and these were the only defeats suffered in six neutral venue games dating back four years. Of the other four, Russia won three. They conceded nine goals in these six matches, scoring nine times themselves.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Greece’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 16.6.2005):

• Full-time Result = Greece wins: 13 (43.3%); Draws: 7 (23.3%); Defeats: 10 (33.3%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): L-D-W-D-W-W
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals = 28 times (93.3%)

Greece’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 16.6.2005):

• Full-time Result = Greece wins: 1 (10%); Draws: 1 (10%); Defeats: 8 (80%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): L-L-W-L-L-L
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals = 10 times (100%)

Russia’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 9.10.2004):

• Full-time Result = Russia wins: 15 (50%); Draws: 8 (26.7%); Defeats: 7 (23.3%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): D-W-W-D-W-W
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals = 24 times (80%)

Russia’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 9.10.2004):

• Full-time Result = Russia wins: 3 (50%); Draws: 1 (16.7%); Defeats: 2 (33.3%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-L-D-W-W-L
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals = 4 times (66.7%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Backing both teams to score: “No” is a good bet at odds of 2.02, which carries value of 21.2% but at a probability of only 60%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: A similar probability of 59.2% can be bought at odds of 1.94 for backing full-time under 2.5 goals, at 14.8% value.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: There is also huge value in Dutch laying a couple of full-time correct scores: 1-3 to Russia and the 2-2 draw. The combined lay odds are however 9.47, but this is in perspective as the more correct mathematical odds should be closer to 60.0! This dutch lay provides value of 633.3% together with a probability of success at 98.3%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: Lay Full-time Result: Draw (Odds: 3.95; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 5.22; Value: 32.1%; Probability 80.8%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 5: Back Full-time Under 3.5 Goals (Odds: 1.36; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.18; Value 15.6%; Probability: 85%).

Bet WON

• Forward to next match analysis: 18th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Italy v Republic of Ireland
• Back to previous match analysis: 15th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Sweden v England