Euro 2012: Ukraine v France – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 14th June, 2012…

Home Advantage to Neutralise France?

Despite not having played competitive matches for 31 months prior to this tournament, Ukraine’s home record in Euro and World Cup qualifiers is pretty formidable. They have lost just four (versus Poland, Turkey, Italy, and Greece) of their last 30 games at home, winning 15 and drawing 11.

For fans of over/under 2.5 goals bets, Ukraine’s last 30 matches have seen an average of just 2.4 goals per game, and for bets on over/under 1.5 goals at half-time the average is just 0.93 per game.

France’s competition record abroad shows 13 wins, 11 draws and six defeats at an average of just 2.03 goals per game, and 1.03 goals at half-time.

France have kept 16 clean sheets in their 30 games abroad as opposed to Ukraine’s 15 shutouts in 30 equivalent home games. The statistics suggest not too many goals in this game.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Ukraine’s last 30 competitive home matches in all competitions (since 17.11.1999):

• Full-time (Losing) Correct Scores: 0-2 (none); 0-3 (none); 1-2 (1 = 3.3%); 2-3 (none)
• Half-time Score 0-0: 13 times (43.3%)
• Last 6 Half-time Scores (most recent first): 0-0; 0-1; 1-0; 2-0; 1-1; 0-0

France’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 13.6.2006):

• Full-time (Winning) Correct Scores: 0-2 (3 = 10%); 0-3 (1 = 3.3%); 1-2 (1 = 3.3%); 2-3 (none)
• Half-time Score 0-0: 13 times (43.3%)
• Last 6 Half-time Scores (most recent first): 1-1; 0-0; 0-2; 1-1; 0-1; 0-0

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: At odds of 3.45, backing the draw at full-time carries 26.5% value and a statistical probability of 36.7%.

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 2: At odds of 2.1, backing the draw at half-time offers lower value at 22.5%, but a higher statistical chance of 58.3%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: “Dutch” Lay four full-time Correct Scores: France winning 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-2 (with weighted stakes for equal return/risk). Combined lay odds: 4.2; Zero or ‘true’ combined odds: 10.0; Value: 241.7%; Probability 90%.

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 4: Back Half-time Correct Score: 0-0 (Odds: 2.7; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 2.31; Value 25.4%; Probability: 43.3%).

Bet WON

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Ukraine 0-2 France
HT – Ukraine 0-0 France


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

• Forward to next match analysis: 15th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Sweden v England
• Back to previous match analysis: 14th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Italy v Croatia