Arbitrage is ‘Sure Betting’
In the world of sports betting the art of arbitrage involves wagering on both or all sides of an event with the right combination of odds and stakes in place to make a profit whatever the outcome of that event.
Image: 3Dmask (Shutterstock)The principle of arbitrage is ‘sure betting‘, supposedly with minimum risk (for the seasoned arbitrageur) and long-term, guaranteed profits.
Surely this is the closest you can come to attaining the “Holy Grail” in betting? Or maybe not?
Despite the apparent rewards on offer the number of worldwide professional sports arbitrageurs is in the low tens of thousands, not more. In comparison, the German stock market employs over 3,200 staff, whilst one of the largest providers of automated arbitrage services, RebelBetting has even fewer subscribers than this number (as we write).
So, why such a relatively small group of customers taking advantage of the so-called ‘guaranteed’ gains averaging between 1.5% and 3.5% per bet (a typical ‘arb‘ provides around 2.5%), with perhaps 15-25% potential profit on the capital employed each month? That’s a far higher reward than any bank, building society, or share dividend offers!
Is Arbitrage legal?
There is no question that arbitrage is legal because the arber is simply exploiting price differences in the market, effectively buying and selling (bets) as any trader does. There is nothing illegal about this.
However, it is understandable that bookmakers are not fond of arbers. Every company has the right (even arbitrarily) to decide who their customers should be and many bookmakers prohibit arbers from their books. As soon as suspicion is aroused bookmaker accounts are quickly limited or even closed.
High Capital Requirement and Personal Characteristics
Successful arbitrage betting ultimately guarantees small returns but the sacrifice is that the process requires large funds. The money is tied-up in the venture for a potentially long period of time.
Pursuing an average 2.5-3.0% profit per betting round and targeting a return of 15-25% of the capital employed per month, the ‘arber’ needs, for example, a starting bank of at least 25,000 € in order to make 5,000 € profit per month.
Wow! A lot of money required at the start to make it worthwhile, and entering the arbitrage arena on these terms will be impossible for many.
Of course, arbitrage betting is a pretty safe investment, but in addition to substantial funds it requires not only great expertise but also some strong personal characteristics to make it possible at all:
- Many time-consuming calculations must be performed. Ouch, lots of maths!
- Clear and complete records of every transaction must be kept. How boring!
- Discipline and consistency has to be maintained at all times. Far too unsocial!
And lastly, a really stable, reliable and fast internet connection is essential, without any limitations to any bookmaker or exchange worldwide.
However, the average punter is perhaps not such a ‘professional’ investor, but bets for fun and/or the excitement of watching an event knowing that money is riding on the outcome. Of course, he hopes to profit from the wager but his are gambles, not investments. Is that the reason why there are so few ‘arbers’ out there and active in the market?
I’ve been arbing for AGES … n very successfully at that. But the dreaded black cloud has come and I have no access to any fixed odds accounts to arb.
I tried ‘sharbing’ in shops, but gave up, as they made such a fuss whenever u try get on £200 … even anything over £50 with the majority. I got cross-quizzed in coral, asking if Im a regular, hearing the lady talking to one of their ‘traders’ ,, ‘oh no, Ive not seen this guy before in this shop’. And that was over a £100 bet! A Paddy power shop staff member said to me 2yea, we take bet over a £100 in here”, yea right i thought, but at least inspired me with a little optimism. After placing one [losing] £200 bet, i got told by the cashier I can only have SP. The guy was foreign so his dialogue was a bit of a giveaway when he said [pointing], “you, the traders told me have SP only”….shame i couldnt take them to court for dicrimination, but theyre quite within their rights.
My big question is:
to open European fixed odds betting accounts—do i have to be a resident there? — the same as in UK, if u were to open an account?
Or is there anyway u can trade euro, say, through an online wallet, such as neteller, for example? I even had a mad idea to get a caravan in ‘BritCamp’ benidorm, solely just for the ‘address’ and hammer the arbing in eurozone? surely they’d also be a larger selection of firms as so many countries?? any help/advice/experiences would be appreciated, fellow arbers
We must stand united! On the battle against the bookies!!
hi arbhunter , i could not get the ” reply ” button to show itself in your last message , thanks for the compliments , i do not mind at all about answering questions about arbing , if i can offer advice i will .
regarding a web site i do not think i would be any good at all with my own blog ? is that the word , i have had more problems with my 2 web sites , one for arbs and the other for the saverbets` , than i have had in my entire life ( and i am 83 in March and been in business (( building houses etc )) , i have managed to give the work to the ” wrong guy ” i think now , 6 times in a row , one after the other and paid most of them too.
no i will leave the ” blogs ” to others , what i am hoping is that so many of you guys will subscribe to my 2 programs and i will be so busy counting the money i will not have time to do much else.
but leaving the joking out of it , i would like to get a few dollars out of it ( USD that is not AUD , 100 USD costs me around 140 AUD when i pay for something or to someone for work done , i want those USD.
if i get anything out of it i already have in mind a couple of new programs`, one for racing which i was going to do years ago , and the other , i believe i can get an arbs program going with only a “small number” of books ( i have said it previously , you do not want an arb service that scrapes 50 or 100 books , you want one that only scrapes about 10 of them ) and the books in the ” small number ” will be ones who will NOT ban you as an arber , i believe i can do this AND with no soccer in the program either , just the other sports, thanks and good luck in the future ( i have just sent Robert another message asking if i can mention my 2 programs in a post , maybe he is still on holidays ? )
Haha I hope you’re soon too busy counting the $ to not worry about anything nice–woud be nice, especially involving something you have a passion for.
My own style of arbing, was the traditional ‘old school’ method … back with fixed odds company >> lay on exchanges (in UK the biggest audience is within BETFAIR). Although very time consuming, and requiring a certain amount of judgement through expertise, this proved very profitable and reliable. I predominantly focused on horse racing; reason being is u have the in-running element on the exchanges, where,say, if your horse got beaten a nose, you would have laid bets at as small as 1.1 and under, which added to profit. Especially when bets placed with fixed odds companies, who offered ‘best price guaranteed’ offers, which most did.
As you rightly mentioned earlier, the majority of these companies either close your account, or in UK the genral trend is to restrict your ‘maximum’ stakes to sometimes pence, which is a cent in US terms, so useless and as good as closed. I had a good run 2011, 2013, 2014 and almost all of 2015. My downfall was, I was left basically with one sole account, and I got greedy. Placing £2000 bets, regular £1000 and £100 + very often. I was surprised they let me do this …but i assumed this because I was losing in their ‘total’ calcuations–although not losing myslf, as arbed them off at profit…. but then the inevitable happened and I got restricted, but only because there was a large number of consecutive winners within 3 months.
I’m interested to hear some info re. your programmes. I do not understand the full concept of ‘saverbets’ and other ones you have mentioned….and does the require the arber to actually have a non-restricted account with most fixed-odds companies? And how would you programmes work for a subscriber?
Maybe you could email me some details, if possible: roy[at]arberhunter[dot]info … I’m in the process of building an advisory service about how to arb fixed odds to exchange and also working on some podcasts to broadcast this. Whether it profits or not, i will get good satisfaction of empowering people how to take money from bookmakers!
Going back to the blog idea mentioned previously … this site seems very quiet, considering the amount of arbers around nowadays. You’d be better off reaching out to a wider audience and spreading the word of your programmes, which I think would be popular.
hi arbhunter , i tried a trial to that address but it came back , i am sure i have the .info wrong , is it ,info.com, /also i am having problems with the captcha in the site , i will try and send this message now , using the win10 laptop now , t does not seem to like xp . don
will reply in full if this message goes ok
Hi Don, both comments have been logged, XP as well as Win 10. It’s not a Captcha problem, there is some other bug on the site which has to do with the multilingual function. After a user posts a comment, the site redirects. It also happens when I remove the Captcha. So it’s not the Captcha.
I’m currently trying to find the cause of this error and fix it. However, you can continue commenting and trust that your comments will go through. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Hey Don
Apologies about email address, damn email adresses…Try roysrolling01[at]gmail[dot]com, for the info if possible
Cheers Don
is there any difference between arbitrage computation.and sure bet computation
Hi, a ‘sure bet’ is a synonym for arbitrage – they are the same thing.
Thanks for your question.
Hi Don!
Could you please tell me which Asian bookies are arb friendly? 🙂
Many thanks in advance 🙂
hi johnson , i suggest you try , IBC ( but you have to use an agent to open an account ) SBO for sure , bodog88 ( if you can get them where you live ) 138bet, not sure how you are going to use these however , when your arbs providors tells you that say stan james has odds for such and such and so this makes the arb ( it is generally the odds from one bookie that makes an arb , he is out of kilter with the others for that event ) then this does not mean that when you go to any of these asian books you will get the same odds , if fact you almost certainly will not and so there will be no arb to be had , if you understand what i mean .
it is my opinion that the US books will not ban you either , OR AT LEAST IN THE 4 US SPORTS , i was banned by my favourite book , hollywood sportsbook in SOCCER , but only in soccer , the US books are not all that strong in soccer and they limited me to 25 bucks .
of course pinnancle will never ban you and i have never had any trouble with , 5dimes , bet cris , the greek , diamond sportsbook , island casino , and a few others , but who knows their policies might have changed only yesterday.
suggest you watch this site i may have something to help you in the next couple of weeks , regards and good arbing , don rees
I have been using RebelBetting and OddStorm only. I can say that OddStorm is much better than Rebel. OddStorm also have navigation and the most important thing is that they have the fastest surebet delivery. Also I don’t know how you are making much money with Rebel because they are supporting only PreMatch. OddStorm is supporting PreMatch and InPlay. For InPlay you don’t need to wait days to gather your money. You place the bet and few minutes later your money are in your pocket. For me OddStorm is the best sports arbitrage service and I have been using it from two years and don’t think to change it.
Hi Leroy!
On which bookies are you arb betting and have you ever been limited or blocked?
Thanks! 🙂
Donar when is your saver software coming up?. And thank you guys for all the info.
hi mark , just as soon as i get the website problems sorted out , i seem to have an unhappy knack of picking the wrong guys to do my work , maybe 6 of these ” experts ” has had a go at my 2 websites in the past 6 months , to get one of them to intergrate skrill as a recurring monthly payment option is totally alien to the ones i have picked .
it looks like i will have to go with paypal only to begin with , maybe the end of next week .
if you do your arbing similar to Leroy in the message below , my program will be of no use to you at all, you will never find an arb in my program that is ” live betting ” i would not touch live betting ever , my biggest fear when i was trading was not being able to get all of the , say 3 , wagers on before the odds changed , and this did happen quite a few times too , when this happens it puts you in the position of being a straight out gambler and i do not want to be a gambler in any form.
my program is deliberately set to find arbs in matches as far in the future as possible , i am sure that the odds are less likely to change if the match etc is not to be played for say 7 days , i have seen arbs in my tables that have not altered for days and days and that is no exaggeration.
i suppose something like this depends on your bank and there is not much i can do about that , i do know though that if in say a HAD match in soccer , you get your wager on the favourite and then the draw ( this is the order in which i used to do them anyway ) but when you come to put your wager on the underdog the odds have dropped and killed the arb, so you do not make any wager on the underdog at all , and the underdog actually wins the match , and they sometimes do , then it is going to take you a long while to get back the stake monies you just lost on the favourite and the draw .
you can of course put something on the underdog at the new odds to try and soften the blow if they do win and for what it is worth i suggest that if you are ever in this position , you do try and cover your 2 stakes already made somehow.
i have always regarded arbing as a trading program , you need a bit a patience , you are not going to get rich overnight , ggod luck , don
hi mark , a belated reply i know but my saverbets program will be available in about 7 days i hope , it will be $65.00 a month , i will send details to Robert first just to make sure i can put the website address in a post.
the past 9 weeks delay has nothing to do with the saverbets program , it has been web site problems , i seem to have an unhappy knack of picking the wrong guys to do work for me , one guy 32 days did nothing , the next guy was worse 34 days then disappeared i finally found a guy who is great , he is just cleaning up the stuff the previous 2 ” experts ” left .
in my opinion Mark , saver are much better than arbs and i am not saying this because i only have a saver bets program , i also have my arbs program finished , it is $50.00 a month so it does not matter to me which one anyone subscribes to, i just think savers are better, anyway you get a 2 day trial on either or both , regards don
hi mark , both the savers and my-arbershop are finished , i have sent robert a message asking him if it ok if i mention both addresses in a post in this forum , he has previously said i could do this but i thought i should ask again.
both programs have been running well for weeks now , an arbs program requires constant maintenance , bookies very often change their web site etc and when this happens my program does not recognize their site and does not scan it, betdaq have just changed theirs and caused me a lot of trouble , regards don
Hello Don,
I’m a new surebetter. I start about 1 year ago. I look every day some forum and news about surebet. Now I use the program betonvalue. I’m from italy and it good because have many bookmkaers .it .
Is possible have some information about your programs?
Thanks
Hello Don,
can I know how to subscribe at your program?
Thanks
hi luis , i was waiting on a reply from robert regarding putting the program names in a post but he has not answered , i thought he might still be on holidays .
please wait a day or so , i will send him another message , i do not like advertising in his site without getting an ok from him first , thanks don
Hey Don
You’re a wealth of knowledge on this site Don, and appreciate by myself and others … have u ever considered getting your own site? There cud be some AU$ in it?! A moderator for the site + separate advisory service, linking to your programmes?
Hello Don,
Can you give me some info about the program at this mail ivanobucci01[at]gmail[dot]com
I have other question, for the moment I use betonvalue..that’s good for the italian bookmakers also. But I received today a special promotion from Rebelbetting. What do you think is the good software?
Thanks
hi do not particularly like being the only one who answers questions in this forum , but as no one else seems to want to, i will offer “bclones” an answer .
well sir you have just about run through all of the ” mickey mouse ” UK books , suggest you only need blue square ( are they still going ? ) betway . paddy ( irish i know) and a couple of the same Euro books and you will have used up the lot of them. and good riddance to them too.
i would say that if you still have bwin going then there is only one reason for this , you have either made very few arbs trades with them or the ones you have made have been the losing bets in the arbs .
i swear this to be true , bwin limited me to $25.00 , BEFORE i had ever made a single bet with them and if any one would like to know the rest of this boring story please ask , they limited me BEFORE i had made a single bet with them .
if you bet mainly on the US sports . plus tennis F1 etc i suggest you go to the US books , 5dimes , betcris ( bookmaker.eu i think in Europe ) , the greek , sportinteraction , and many others ( go to , sportsbook review.com or goonersguide , you will see the A class US books there ,) they are not strong on soccer and i was actually limited by a US book ,IN SOCCER ONLY, ( they made it plain at the time that the limitation did not apply to the other sports ) and it was one my favourite books too , hollywoodsportsbook.com, i liked hollywood , they only have a C rating on SBR i think , but i was always paid when i asked for a withdrawal. and to me that is very very important.
if you bet mainly on soccer i suggest you go to the asian books , i have been told they do not limit or ban anyone , they consider that if you win often then there must be something wrong with there system !!
a few A class asian books , 12bet , 188bet , M88 , (Mansion88 i think ), bodog88 , 138bet , and there is another one who is supposed to be the daddy of them all , you have to open an account with them through an ” agent ” or is it an ” affiliate ” ? ibc.com.
hope this helps a bit and good luck , donar
Many thanks, Don, for sharing your valuable knowledge! This is very, very, very appreciated! 🙂
hi i forgot one , both pinnacle and SBO used to advertise on an arbs website , the owner of this site is very strict about who advertises there , has to be arbs related , so i assume , sbo.com are ok with arbers , regards don
Hi Don, An interesting read — re your arbing on US sports…are you based in US? Or are u able to have US based accounts, whilst residing in UK? And if so, do you trade in USD or does their site have a facility to trade in GBP?
hi , how are you going ? no i am australian and i have never lived anywhere but australia, i have not done an arbs trade for quite some time , in total i have made 2704 of them , but since i started developing my own arbs program , i have not traded at all , and because i now own an arbs program and a saverbets program ( much better than arbs ) i will not be doing another one either ( i do not think it is right ot ethical if you own and are selling an arbs program that you should use it yourself , there is always the doubt that the owner could be delaying the sending of the arbs tables to his customers until he gets the pick of them himself , you can be assured that i am not arbing or using the saver bets program either , nor is anyone associated with me , that is a given .
when i was trading yes my transactions were in USD , if you use skrill ( moneybookers ) and neteller you nominate the currency you want to use and if i remember correctly same with your account with the bookies, you nominate your currency when you open your account .
why do you need a US account ?, just open your account with a US bookie , using your UK address , the only one’s they can’t accept is a US based account , they have prohibition again , you would think that after the absolute shambles the VOLSTAG ??? act caused in the country from 1920 to 1932 they would know that prohibition dores not work , good luck , regards don
Thanks a lot for your info Don.
Hi everyone,
has anyone tested the bookies who accept repeatedly arb bets? In the practical world, i am only left with pinnaclesports and bwin !!!
limited or eliminated from 10 other serious ones included:
victorchandler, bet365, 10bet, stanjames
Apart from pinnacle, I found the company with most tolerance was bet365 … I had a good 2/3 yr run, until I got greeedy wth the stakes and therefore subsequently got restricted to circa £2 per bet, so worthless really.
Another option would be to be an uber-popular person, who is thoroughly trusted by all your hundreds of friends: then operate their betting accounts for them (until you are restricted/account closed) and share the profits, benefiting, also, from free bets offered; which are, of course, easyily managable profit.
Excellent thanks for your detailed answer Donar. Do you limit the amount of markets you operate in? Let us know how your program goes.
hi cobber, yes my main source of arbs is of course in soccer plus the NBA , NFL NHL the NCAA (F ) and tennis.
the fact that my program is written in VB6 and it seems that the program has reached its capacity , so i cannot add anymore books or expand it anymore.
i am dependent on my programmer for this , she tells me i should not add anymore to it so i have to believe her.
the last thing i would do is to add more books , 22 is already too many , it is not more books i want , it is more arbs.
my ideal arb service , and i know it is not possible , would be one that had pinnacle , 5dimes , cris and the greek only in it ,plus the 2 exchanges, this business of having 50 plus books in it is ridiculous,
i have already started on developing a new service , using .Net this time 4 US books and 4 asians plus the 2 exchanges , no UK , Euro , Scandinavian , Russian , Irish or Australian books at all , no soccer at all but say 12/15 other sports scanning for maybe 6/8 wager types .
the thing is you never know if you are going to get any arbs from something like this until you spend the heap of money required to finish it , but if i am wrong and i do not get enough arbs then i will have to throw in some soccer, regards and good luck if you are an arbers, donar
Most standard bookies eg ladbrokes, will hill, bet365 can see pretty quickly you are always taking top prices or betting on obscure market therefore most likely arbing (or putting on your saver bets). I don’t think round number bets will make much of a difference. How do you get around this aspect? Just using pinnacle of Betfair etc will limit your options?
hi cobber , i will make this reply quick i hope , the ” funny ” wagers you have to make as an arber most certainly will cause the bookie to identify you as an arber and if you does not want arbers he will limit you to probably $25.00 , i have been so treated by 6 of them.
an arb taken from my arbs table this morning , in the EPL tottenham v west ham HAD , the odds are 1.70 / 4.42 / 6.46 , the wagers are , $607 / 233 / 160.00 and the return is 3.17%.
who but an arber would want to bet $607.00 or $233.00 you may get away with the $160.00.
regarding the saverbets figures on this match with a $100.00 bet on the favourite , then the underdod , then the draw would be ,
fav , $100 / 37 / 25 and the return would be 5.22% . i am not going to do it but i am certain the 37.00 could be altered to 40.00 and not make much difference to the return
underdog , the wagers would be , $100 / 122 / 317 . and the return would be 19.85% , you could alter the 122 and the 317 wagers to 125 and 320 or 325.00 and it would not make much difference to the 19.85%
for the draw , the wagers are $100 / 229 / 60 and the return 13.58%, again the 229 could be altered to 225 or 230 with not much alteration , if required i will do these alterations and send them in .
i do not quite understand , ” always taking top prices ” i do not understand that , i assume every punter would want the best price he could get , why are there odds comparison sites on the net? if you mean that for example 19 books have the odds for an event at 2.00 and the 20th has odds for the same event at 2.20 so that is the arb bet , sure that bookie’s odds would be in the arbs table , but he put the odds up , his opinion was that it was a 2.20 bet, the other 19 bookies would never know that 3000 odd arbers took the 2.20 from the 20th , i do not see how that can contribute to being banned or limited .
finally regarding obscure markets , in my own program , in soccer , i am scanning for , HAD ( FT ) , HAD ( HT) , U & O 2.5 FT , handicaps FT AND DNB ( FT ). hardly obscure wager types and from my experience with other programs and i have tried many over the years , they all seem to follow these same wager types.
anyway if someone does find an arb with obscure wager types in it , i bet none of the bookies involved will take a $5/600.00 bet for any of the wagers. i remember pinnacle , who are surely the best book on the net , if they had a wager type that was a bit unusual , they had the limit you could bet prominently displayed and $50.00 was a common one.
of the 3 books you mentioned one of them is a joke , they will ban you very promptly , they have come out here to Australia now , i heard that a few complaints were made to the NSW Racing Authority about their practice of very quickly banning those who had a few wins and i am talking about punters not arbers being banned or limited. good luck in the future , donar
Eric, i have spent a little less than 6 years and a little less than 60K developing my arbs program and my saver bets program , i would like to re-coup some of this money and adverse comments from someone who does not know what he is talking about rankles a little.
maybe you could have a look at the example i put up and see if you understand what a saver is , a tennis match player A and player B , sportsbooks C and D
PA is at $2.00 with SB C i wager $ 500.00 PB is at $4.00 with SB D i wager $ 167.00
if PA wins i win 500.00 less my stake of 167.00 on PB , so i win $333.00
if PA lose the PB must win and i have 167.00 at 4.00 on him , i will win $ 668.00 for a PB win , my 2 stakes are 500 + 167 = 667.00 so i will get back all of my stakes .
of course the ideal thing would be , if you had the time , to also do another wager but this time with the 500.00 bet on PB then it would not matter who won , the win would have to be either $333.00 or
$1000.00 .
the returns with saver bets are much better than with arbs ,i have geared the stakes in the tables not to 500.00 but to 100.00 , less chance of the bookie worrying about you and banning you and because the % returns are better you can do some ” rounding off ” of the second or third wagers.( as in H2H in soccef )
in the example i have given i would alter the wager on PB from 167.00 to 175.00 it does not make much difference to the return for a PA win and i do not think a bookie will ID you too easily if you are making wagers like 100 and 175.00 , all round savers are better than arbs i think .
i have had a free bet on PA if he loses i get back all of my money and i am getting dozens and dozens of saver bets every day in the program, but i would point out it is a TRADING PROGRAM not an arbs program or a gambling program , by following the favourites in 2 or 3 way wager types , could you expect masybe 45/50% wins , ?? hopefully my savers and arbs programs will be ready to go in 7 days , i have already asked you about mentioning them in a forum post and the cost will be just
$30.00 a month for either , regards donar
How can they logically say arb betting is a scam? The bookie makes you an offer & you accept it. That’s a scam? My problem is I’m in the US & I don’t know which books can be trusted. If they rob me I have no legal recourse.
Many accounts are needed (kneaded) to do arb betting & the profit margin is so thin that if just one robs you it can wipe out a few months profit. I can probably make more money with a bad job.
Robert, they are unhappy with arbers because they are worried about anything that looks like a system.
as you say as long as the bets are between 2 or more bookies , and this is a must anyway , any time you see an arb with the same bookie forget it , one of them is a mistake and the bookie will wake up and void the bet.
there are books on the nett that do not care if you are an arber or not , indeed the best book around , pinnaclesports has at the top of their odds tables ” arbers welcome “, or something similar, this may actually be a good thing , as most people accept that pinny is the best on the nett , other bookies may have another look , realise they are not being robbed and start accepting arbers also .
the asian books are reputed to be tolerant to arbers , i have read that if someone wins from them regularly they do not ban or limit them , they assume there is something wrong with their system , to ban or limit someone , or not to pay someone is a matter of losing face , a great idea i think .
also i think sports arbitrage trading must be one of the most mis-understood programs possible, here in Australia we have 6 states , every state has a state government that has a FAIR TRADING DEPARTMENT and everyone of of these says that ” sports arbitrage is a scam ” I have sent more than one email to them pointing out that what they say is incorrect , they do not even answer.
their mistake is in assuming that every sports arbitrage trading program requires a customer to lodge money with them 10,000 dollars etc and THEY trade arbs for you , guarantee you an enormous monthly % win , and people actually give them money , of course they never see it again, and our dear pollies etc think that is the only way sports arbitrage trading is carried out and of course this is a scam , good luck with your future arbing , donar
Hi Donar,
Regarding your Saver Bet and going by decimal odds, player A has a 50% chance of winning & player B has a 20% chance of winning giving you and arb profit of 286 regardless of outcome using you 500 + 168 initial bet, giving you a 42% return. Going by your saver bet you get a return of 500/668= 74% return, but this will happen only 50% of the time. Now for instance a compounded return of 42% over 10 bets gives you 3333% return whereas 74% return only half the time ie. 5 bets gives you 1594%. This seems like a losing option to me.
Unless you mean by your saver bet:
Player A odds are @ 2.0 and player B odds are at roughly the same.
Put 500 on A to make 500, but as game progresses player B gets the upper hand and you want to hedge your bet to break even? But here player B’s odd will deteriorate with time exponentially and we look to hedge when player B’s probability of winning is 80%, this hedge will then cost 2000. Tying up 2500 of capital.
I think this could be plausible but not for large bets and also a there is a risk of hedging too early.
Last option odds for both players are roughly 2.0.
Bet on A, and as A looks like winning B’s odds will drift and then back B guaranteeing a small but safe profit. But given player A’s odds are 2.0(50% prob) this will only happen half the time ie. player B’s odd will shorten and then you are back to hedging. Either way you are looking at small profits and time consuming strategy, unless you are selling a high frequency trading bot?
For me its sports arb, high frequency live betting, or just calculate your own odds, look for deviations with book makers and backing when you have a positive expected return and hedge some of losses where possible.
I am starting to put more time into betting strategies and developing algorithms, i would love to hear any thoughts and debate on this going forward as it will help us all learn.
Maybe I’m really dumb but I can’t understand why bookies are unhappy with arbers as long as they split the bets w/different bookies. Each individual bookie makes makes his commission. It’s an industry problem–not an individual bookie problem. But maybe I’m missing something.
The problem w/arbing, I find, is that there are so few opportunities & such small margins of profit that if even one online site doesn’t pay it can wipe out almost a year’s profit. I live in the US & that’s a problem for me. I don’t know who can be trusted & have no recourse if things go bad.
The math of arbing is simple. I explained it to my 14 y/o granddaughter & she understood it & she tells me she’s not good at math.
Hi Andy (@16 September),
Apologies for the delay in replying.
You have the right attitude all round regarding arbing – it is not a full time thing unless you consider $1800-$2000 per month to be worthwhile.
Sure, I will tell you the 7 books that are arbs friendly, but it will not do you much good as you really have to use the bookies the arb service finds the arbs for: 5Dimes; betcris; The Greek; Centerbet; William Hill; Pinnacle Sports; SBObet.
Regarding being limited, the US books seem to be the best, whilst UK books such as Bet365, Betway, Unibet, and a few others are a joke.
I have my own arbs program and aim to start marketing it on Soccerwidow hopefully very soon. I will be charging 30 dollars a month.
For this, you will find back/back arbs, back/lay arbs, mixed Asians, mixed under and overs, biased bets and a few others things. Literally, everything the $150.00 a month guys have.
I will also have another program called “saver bets”, which I believe is a pretty unique service. In my opinion, saver bets are much better than arbs – you place a bet on one team and the 2 or 3 bets required on the other, but these 2 or 3 bets are only enough to cover your stake on the first one if it loses. If the first bet wins, then good – the return will be better than an arb. If it loses you get all of your stake money back – it is a genuine risk free bet proposition AND because the % returns will definitely be better than arbs, we should be able to “round off” our stakes on 2 and 3. (The bookies find you as an arber because of the “FUNNY” bets we have to make – I mean, who but an arber places stakes such as 479, 343, etc.?).
The saver bets will be available as a stand-alone program, and at this stage I am not sure of the cost but it will be around 50/60 a month.
Regarding starting capital it is very hard to say. One reason is that you do not know how quickly the bookie will give you your money back. Neither do we know how long we have to wait for each transaction to conclude. In other words, tying you money up in games where the odds make it worthwhile placing bets perhaps a week in advance.
Whatever the arbing arena has in store for you, I think 5k should give you a good start. Try and go for the 2-way arbs at all times: the under/over ‘X’ goals market, or the + & – 0.5 goals Asian handicap market. At one time it was taking me 6-8 minutes to get the 3 wagers needed to play the full-time 1×2 market.
One thing I would like to say is that in my arbitrage program I have all of the arbs listed in a table. One of the headings in the table is “more arbs” – if you click this you will get a list of other bookies who have odds either the same as those in the tables or very close to those odds – maybe a tick difference or sometimes less. If you use this facility the chances are you will see a book where you already have money stacked up, and you can take the arb with him. Sometimes, it might be for slightly less return, but it may suit you to do this.
Here is an example of a “saver” bet: the odds are not realistic but I will use them as they are easy to work out in your head and serve to illustrate the point.
If in a tennis match we have player A & player B:
Player A has odds of 2.00 – we wager 500.00 to win 500.00
Player B has odds of 5.00 – we wager 168.00
If A wins, we win 500 less our stake of 168 on B = a net win of 332.00
If A loses, our bet on B wins: 168.00 x 4.00 = 672.00, which is almost our total stake (500 + 168) so, effectively, we have a free bet on player A.
Of course, the ideal thing in a saver like this is to do it also in reverse: put 500 on Player B, then a ‘saver’ bet on A, which in this case will be 500. If B wins, (and the underdog does occasionally win), our net win will be 1000.00.
Regards and good luck, Don