2020 Summer League HDAFU Tables – Coronavirus Trial – ‘Live’ Picks

This article will be updated at least once a day until the first halves of the league seasons highlighted finish. Clear your browser cache and then press the F5 key to refresh.

Live Simulation: Nine HDAFU Systems in Four Leagues

Many of you are asking what effects coronavirus is having on football betting. Whilst we envisage that the disruptions caused will not have any noticeable change on long-term statistical trends, it is impossible to say with any certainty what will happen in these unprecedented times.

Therefore, we have decided to carry out a very public experiment using 1X2 systems taken from our most recent set of HDAFU Tables – those for the 2020 Summer Leagues, limited to four leagues that will hopefully play out the entirety of their seasons, albeit a little late in starting (or restarting).

We will publish the picks a day or so in advance and keep you abreast of progress. We have decided to suspend our own betting for the time being, so this exercise will be purely a simulation with a ratcheted staking plan in operation and is for first-half-of-season systems only.

The four leagues are:

• Finland Veikkausliiga (2x draw systems)
• Iceland Úrvalsdeild (AKA Pepsideild) (1x draw system; 1x favourite win system)
• Norway Eliteserien (1x draw system; 1x home win system; 1x favourite win system)
• Sweden Allsvenskan (1x draw system; 1x favourite system)

Portfolio Expectations

• Portfolio Probability = Hit Rate 47.07%
• Mathematical Advantage (Expected Yield) = 27.61%

This collection of nine systems, therefore, represents a MEDIUM-RISK portfolio

Two Different Approaches:

1X2 HDAFU Profit/Loss Curve Betting & Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Cluster Table Betting

In tandem with this HDAFU test, we are doing the same with our Cluster Tables in four Winter Leagues that are due to finish at the beginning of August. Picks will be published daily and will appear on our German-language sister site, Fussballwitwe.de. Don’t understand German? then try Google auto-translation into English here.

In short, both are value betting systems, but with different methods.

1X2 bets are system bets: you choose a system and place the bet whenever the selected criterion fits – in this case, the quotient arrived at by dividing the current home odds by the corresponding away odds.

Over/Under bets are based on calculating the betting odds for each game (according to the historical statistics over the five preceding seasons) and placing the bet where there is value. Here, we will consciously choose the bets according to probabilities as well as their profitability/yield potential. (Over/Under course readers will know what I am talking about here!)

The 1X2 bets are much easier to play; you make the selection criteria once (i.e. formulate the system at the beginning), using the historical information and profit curves contained in our HDAFU Tables. These also provide a risk assessment and simulation of how future betting expectations might go. Once the parameters of each system are known, it only takes a short time to find the appropriate bets for each game round. However, good value usually lies only in low probability bets (longer odds such as the draw, or underdog win), and, therefore, it is a better idea to mix these selections with higher probability bets (favourite wins), to avoid long losing streaks.

With Over/Under betting you can decide which probabilities you want to play depending on your personal risk attitude. Higher probabilities = lower risk of losing the bet = easier for the nerves. The challenge here, however, is that in order to gain this extra level of precision you have to calculate each individual game individually.

Slideshow of Value Betting Picks

The picks for the respective day will appear here around noon/13.00 GMT +1, including the results from the previous day.

Please click on the arrows at either end to scroll through and view the entire history of the picks.

Hover over the table with your cursor for pop-up day-to-day notes.

Note: Following the interim report detailed in our report after 91 picks, two systems have been dropped (Sweden favourite win; Iceland favourite win) and are shown from Round 27 (August 3rd) for monitoring purposes only.

Want this slideshow larger? Either hold down the ctrl key on your keyboard and press the + (plus) key until you reach a comfortable size. (Afterwards, hold ctrl and press the − (minus) key to reduce your view). Alternatively, with a scroll wheel mouse, hold down the ctrl key on your keyboard and push the scroll wheel forwards. Hold ctrl and reverse the direction of the scroll wheel to reduce the view. The URL bar at the top of your screen will guide you in returning to 100% normal size.

Staking Plan

The starting bank is 3,000 units and the basis for calculating the stakes is as follows:

• Odds below 1.10: 5% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 1.10 – 1.16: 4% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 1.16 – 1.39: 3.8% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 1.40 – 2.25: 2.5% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 2.26 – 7.50: 1.5% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds over 7.50: 0.5% of highest bank achieved*

This is the same staking plan used by the counterpart Cluster Tables experiment, but you should note that the chosen HDAFU systems are likely to utilise only the three lines highlighted as all odds satisfying our criteria will be 1.30 or over and will never exceed 7.50.

Not only will the stakes be scaled according to risk, but a ratchet system* will also be employed. Stakes will begin based on the starting bank of 3,000 units and will continue to be so until there is an increase in the bank after a day’s games. Thereafter, it will be calculated based on the highest end-of-day bank total achieved (even if the actual bank drops below 3,000 units in future). Only if the starting bank reduces by 40% will the stakes be scaled back. (i.e. A stop-loss mechanism is activated if the bank falls below 1,800 units).

N.B. All stake calculations will be rounded-up to the nearest whole unit (e.g. 77.19 becomes 78).

Duration of Experiment

As mentioned, we will be running the HDAFU 1X2 systems calibrated for the first half of the season only in each of the selected four leagues, starting on the 1st of July, 2020.

Picks will appear in our slideshow until the midway point of each league is reached.

At this stage, with the coronavirus interruptions, no certain dates have yet been confirmed as to when each league will reach its natural break (if indeed there is one), but we will advise in advance of each system drawing to its conclusion.

Final Whistle

We have no idea how things like the lack of a crowd, the apparent nullification of home advantage, players being able to hear instructions shouted between themselves and from the sidelines, referees no longer being mobbed over their decisions by over-enthusiastic and supporter-conscious players, lack of fitness, or psychological factors, will affect the game we all know and love.

It is safe to say that we are as much in the dark as you are concerning the future of football and sports betting.

The unknowns are too many to take great risks and, as stated previously, we are not chancing our money on these picks – the systems we are using together form a ‘live’ experiment based on our previously successful HDAFU Tables and Cluster Tables.

If you wish to play these picks yourself, then please do so with money you can afford to lose and try to stick to our stake recommendations.

Let’s hope for something to cheer us all up during these very strange times! 🙂