Following up the successful 2016 Summer League Campaign, here is our complete report on the 2016-17 Winter League Campaign, based on 18 different top flight leagues.
2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve
We will try to avoid repeating what was said in the summer league article so that it is all new information for you here.
For the sake of completeness, you should still read and digest both reports for a full idea of our strategies and thought processes.
And you will find the current stock of available HDAFU tables via this link.
2016-17 Campaign Report
Measures of Risk
Before beginning to plan any portfolio or placing bets, you will need to review your analyses and rank the systems you have found according to risk exposure based on the values of the upper inflection point odds.
This will allow you to compile a portfolio with a healthy balance of risk, which is essential to the success of any investment plan.
Here is our rough guide:
- Low Risk (Probability 45.00% or more; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.22)
- Low-medium Risk (Probability 44.99%-35.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.85)
- Medium Risk (Probability 34.99%-22.50%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 4.44)
- Medium-high Risk (Probability 22.99%-16.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 6.25)
- High Risk (Probability 15.99% or less; upper inflection point odds above 6.25)
Discretion is used if a system does not fit these parameters or crosses two or more classifications – In these cases, the harmonic mean odds of all the games in the set is used as the benchmark to guage risk. The Excel formula for a range of odds in cells A1 to A100 would be: =HARMEAN(A1:A100)
Measures of Success
You will also need a definitive framework to be able to judge the final results.
For us, the final results of any league fall into four distinct categories:
- Systems that achieve a six-season-high (i.e. profits larger than any of the previous five seasons). (Over-Achievers).
- Those that make a profit over and above the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case), but fall short of six-season-high results. (Achievers).
- Strategies that break-even or, record a tiny profit or loss up to the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case). (Zero-Sum).
- Leagues that make a loss over and above the size of the initial stake. (Losers).
You can already see that two of these outcomes are favourable, one is neutral, and only one is detrimental.
2016-17 League-by-League Review
Let’s have a brief look at each league to see how our 22 systems fared. (Alphabetically according to the tab codes in the workbook):
1. AUS1 – Austria Bundesliga – Whole Season System
Only eight of 28 bets won, but this was enough to see a profit of £882.00. Hit rate and yield were both below the calculated averages and the resultant profit figure was lower than any of the five previous seasons’ figures.
Result: Achiever
2. BEL1 – Belgium Jupiler League – Whole Season System
Up to, but not including Europa League and Championship Group splits
Both the estimated hit rate (33 out of 97 bets won) and yield figures were surpassed by wide margins, leading to a six-season-high profit figure of £3,108.00.
Result: Over-Achiever
3. CZE1A – Czech Republic 1. Liga – First Half Season System
Up to the 04/12/2016 winter break
Nine out of 22 bets won, and whilst the hit rate and yield both outstripped expectations, the profit figure settled at £1,247.00, the fourth largest in the last six seasons.
Result: Achiever
4. CZE1B – Czech Republic 1. Liga – Second Half Season System
From 18/02/2017 start of the second half of the season
This one suffered its worst result in the last six seasons, but the resultant loss was minimal at -£310.00.
Result: Loser
5. DEN1A – Denmark Superligaen – First Half Season System
This was the only system employed in this league purely because the format of the second half of the 2016-17 season was to change from previous seasons.
Although hit rate and yield were both below estimates, the system still recorded its third highest total for six seasons at £1,238.00.
There were twice as many bets than expected (largely due to the fact that around 40% more games than usual were played in the first half of the season to accommodate the new second half season format).
Result: Achiever
6. ENG1 – England Premier League – Whole Season System
This system suffered the longest losing streak we have ever encountered, almost 14% worse than expected, for a very painful 36 straight losses. (A six-season-low).
However, the situation was mostly recovered by three big winners all carrying odds of over 12.00, for a final loss of just -£32.00.
The last six bets of the season lost, but had only one of these been a winner, this system would have returned a profit. Small margins.
Result: Zero-Sum
7. FRA1 – France Ligue 1 – Whole Season System
Hit rate and yield were both below par, but the league turned in a steady performance for a profit of £1,634.00, ranked fifth largest in the last six seasons.
Result: Achiever
8. FRA2 – France Ligue 2 – Whole Season System
The same story as France Ligue 1, but with a profit of £2,801.00, for its third largest profit figure in six seasons.
This one was unusual for a much higher number of bets than expected. (215 vs. 119 estimate – Profit was at £2,523.00 after 119 bets).
Result: Achiever
9. GER1A – Germany Bundesliga 1 – First Half Season System
Up to 21/12/2016 winter break
Another below par system, but one that still achieved a profit of £1,098.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).
Result: Achiever
10. GER1B – Germany Bundesliga 1 – Second Half Season System
From 20/01/2017 start of the second half of the season
The very rare inclusion of a system with two non-profitable seasons (the oldest two) in the previous five.
It featured one more bet than expected, which won, to total one more winner than expected. Hit rate and yield both exceeded estimates for a profit of £1,294.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).
Result: Achiever
11. GRE1 – Greece Super League – Whole Season System
The hit rate here was almost 8% below estimate and resulted in the worst performance for six seasons, and a loss of -£819.00.
Result: Loser
For my part, I’m still desperately clinging on to the idea that the whole thing might start to right itself. There’s the odd glimmer:
– favourites in Turkey have started to improve
– draws in Belgium, the same
But these are being more than offset by a terrible run in Ligue 2 (draws) and the Netherlands (draws). Honestly though, if I cut these two systems out I would be more or less break even.
I’ve made amendments to both of the above for the last weekend of results, removing a couple of teams and revisiting the odds range for the Netherlands, which has certainly stemmed the tide of losses in Holland -there seems to be an absolute refusal to draw games for the most part in the Eredivisie so far this season. It was still 4 bets, 4 losses from those two systems at the weekend, but early days for this new changed setup.
Anyway, I’m not a million miles away from moving to just paper testing, and I might actually use the international break to revisit the original spreadsheets and see how other strategies would have performed to date (ones I haven’t selected), particularly for those two leagues. If there’s anything particularly compelling, I might switch, although I’m inclined to stick with plan.
Completely understand people stepping back though, it has been a very rough start to the season. I do sympathise with RW’s position too though – I was inputting results a couple of weeks back and noticed that the Dutch league was only in Round 5 or something, and thought to myself how early in the season it was to be despairing. Don’t get me wrong, I’m despairing….I’m just aware how early it is to be doing it!
RW, any thoughts on the idea of considering switching strategy at this stage of the season? Is it too early, and best to stick it out. Of course another option is to move to paper testing on just the two most problematic strategies and continue to place bets on the others…? Any thoughts appreciated.
Hey guys,
it is now obvious that everyone is having a bad time with the current state of the majority of systems chosen for this season winter portfolio. I suggest to everyone to continue their current campaign on paper without committing further money to it until it becomes clear that things are going in a different direction. Save your main asset (your bankroll) and wait until the systems starts to show more consistent profits over the near future, and start to bet again when the storm seems over. I guess this is the safest and smartest course of action until we can be confident about our portfolios making money. The principle of the tables is very sound and logic, so eventually i am sure things will change, but for now it is better to sit on the bench and wait for a better time to start betting again. I also really would like to know Right Winger’ s thoughts on the matter and his advices to what is the best course of action to take right now.
Hi Daniel,
I think I was writing my reply to the others whilst you were sending this. Please refer to mine above of 2.58pm today for further thoughts.
Hi Right Winger,
in your 10 August 2017 at 5:07 pm reply to Dennis’ question isn’t it too optimistic to place bets 5% size of the bank, you said it’s not an unreasonable sum. My experience of this weekend and I think for many others is that it’s way too much and leads to disaster. Had I placed 5% stakes of my bank, I would’ve lost 77% of the bank from 0 balance.
In another reply to AM0751 on 25 September 2017 at 8:49 pm in the article “2017-18 Winter League HDAFU Tables – For Sale!” you said :
“Putting things into perspective, if a portfolio comprises ten systems, the straight chances of all ten systems having their worst performance for six seasons (the five seasons of historical results in the HDAFU table plus the current season) is 16.67% (one in six) to the power of 10 = 0.00000166%. This equates to one in 60.3 million.”
What is the chance all 10, or 9 out of 10 systems produce loss in 1 weekend? I have 9 systems failed out of 12 I had to bet this weekend, assuming I did bet on 2 teams I decided to exclude from 2 different leagues. The real result is 11 systems failed out of 12 and 6.3% of the bank is gone. I think it’s way bigger chance than 0.00000166% and real percentage would really help to decide reasonable stakes for everyone. Since it can last not only 1 weekend as it goes now. And I have not a 10 systems, I have 17 of them in 1st half. Even that does not help.
It’s tough thing to do, I knew it will be and probably no one wants to do it to win cents, however, it’s not easy to find golden mean regarding the stakes size.
Hi Rado, Jo & Simon,
I do understand your frustrations – believe me, I have been in the same situation many times in the past.
At this stage, all I can advise is the following:
1. Paper test your strategies from now on without committing money to them.
2. Learn the full extent of what is going wrong:
– Is it solely down to the hit rate?
– Is the stake size too large, or too small?
– Are you placing all of the relevant bets, or are some missed, or selected by accident?
– Are you getting high enough odds on the bets that win?
– Is the stop-loss mechanism working?
– Do you need to reconsider the stop-loss thresholds?
– Can the balance of risk within your portfolio be bettered?
Regarding the last point, read the Odds Toggle article for how you can back-test the odds you have bought with each bet against the highest available at the time in order to see how this affects the simulation.
Perhaps the bookmakers and exchanges you are using are too far adrift of the highest market odds? Work out what your odds toggle adjustment should be and enter it into your HDAFU table to see how the difference affects your strategy simulation. Does the affect of the toggle figure still make the system in question viable?
Admittedly, a losing streak of any nature is hard to take in any walk of life, although I always advocate being a good loser in order to be a good winner.
Keeping a cool head under pressure is vital in situations such as these and, although it may be hard to reflect honestly upon one’s own character, the question of whether you really have what it takes to be a gambler is something you should be seriously considering.
If you really have analysed in detail exactly what is happening and can pinpoint exactly what is going wrong, then there is always a chance to fix the problem.
Standing back and surveying the wreckage of a crash is definitely an emotive thing to do, but you must approach this task as objectively as possible and remain level headed about it in order to decide what to do next, and how to avoid a similar situation in the future.
However, as a few have already mentioned, no-one who has bought into the HDAFU system betting approach is likely to have an identical portfolio of strategies or available bookmakers/exchanges with the next person.
For those of you who are suffering right now, there are definitely others enjoying a more profitable run, but of course, many people prefer to keep their successes to themselves.
For me, it is obviously disappointing to read negative comments and also to see people losing faith after just a few rounds of the season. Again, I do sympathise with you, and I also accept that deciding to drop the whole thing is a good idea if you have reached that conclusion. There is absolutely no shame in admitting that gambling is not for you.
But please be aware that risk is with us all, everyday of our lives. Every time we cross the road, we are risking our safety. And many people don’t take crossing the road too seriously – it is taken for granted that all will be well.
However, when it comes to financial risk, people are definitely more emotive by nature, purely because an element of greed, or anticipation of becoming richer, is included in the bargain.
To summarise, take stock of the situation and realign your priorities, even if this means dropping gambling altogether. As we have said throughout this blog, there are easier ways of making money, and far better ways to spend our time.
Hi Right Winger,
It’s solely down to the hit rate and there is nothing you can do. If your hit rate of the weekend is 10-16% compared to 40% predicted average there is no way even to brake even. I estimate there should be enough to hit 25-30% to be at zero result, of course it depends what odds you bet on and what odds win. But if you win just 3 bets out of 30, only high odds win can push you forward. However, you don’t bet them every week, nor every of them wins. When I struggled with my summer campaign for 3.5 months, only 4 out of 8 systems were spoiling results and the lowest hit rate of the week was 17%. In winter campaign 9 out of 16 currently running systems are failing badly and hit rate of this week is even lower with the double amount of systems in play compared to summer leagues. I need 7 more wins at low/middle range odds to be in slight profits and 30% average hit rate. Even after such a bad weekend. It looks so little compared to 335 bets I made so far and so little missing wins can have such a devastating effect. But with balance going back and forth like this with absolutely horrible last weekend, with no support from low odds systems it is really demoralising.
Btw, one question: in your reply to Daniel 24 September 2017 at 8:33 pm above you said: “Yes, excluding individual teams is an option we occasionally exercise.”
Why occasionally and not every time? I checked all of my systems and there some teams that are really asking to be excluded from betting.
Hi Jo,
Yes, we occasionally exclude a team from the results, but it depends on the size of the league.
For example, if we were to take one or two outlier teams away from a 10 or 12 team league, it would deduct a larger percentage of games from a potential system than excluding teams from a 20 team league.
Regarding your portfolio, I would really urge you to look also at the other points I mentioned above in mine of 2.58pm today. If you are absolutely sure that none of the other points are a factor, and that the performance is solely due to hit rate, then weather the storm by paper testing for the time being and only commit money again once you are back in complete control.
Rado,
I feel your pain on this. If you had read my posts, you will know I had endured 6 straight losing weeks after accruing 24 units of profit in a month. This weekend has again been an unmitigated disaster. I entered the week being down 14 units of profit, and after a terrible Friday and Saturday I finished with being down 24 units of profit.
Friday and Saturday were horrendous with 3 bets won out of 24 bets placed. At this point for the systems I have chosen, which I will add, are extremely profitable over the past 5 years, with most showing in a profit in ALL 5 seasons, they are just flat out not performing. As mentioned too, I modeled my portfolio balance on the extremely successful campaign fro RW, so I know i have no made mistakes in portfolio composition or balance of risk.
I actually pulled the plug on real money bets at the end of Saturday, because I cannot any longer justify betting when the results in reality are showing me this venture is going to fail. In real terms I have seen a swing of 50 points of profit lost in 7 weeks. That is without doubt the worst results I have ever experienced in betting.
The concept is sound, but reality here is anther thing. I can accept that underdogs and draws will show a lower hit rate, but for me and most others commenting, that is not being supported by the lower risk systems, as at present favorite systems showing high historic profits are performing awfully right now.
Today has been another disaster for all the systems that I had running, but I have fortunately not incurred losses. But the picture would have been bleaker had I not terminated the venture. Even a stop loss is of no use when a selection of bets wins at rate of 3 in 24. Thats a devastating blow to any bank.
The key for me here is past results do not guarantee future success. And as great as the hdafu tables are in principle for what they show, they can’t tell you if all the systems are going to line up losers at the same time, which seems to be happening now for most of us. And if the systems do recover, which is in major doubt, our banks will have likely been destroyed by this extremely unfortunate distribution of results.
As for the conveyor belt analogy, well most of us definitely got on at the wrong time, and have paid the price for it. I’m stepping off the belt now and will enjoy not having the weekly headache of this thing gradually dying a death.
Another DISASTROUS week! I don’t know how your “campaigns” are going, but I am desperate beyond all belief. Out of my last 15 bets, only 2 won and I am another 10 stakes down this week! My bank is almost depleted, all systems with the exception of one are in ruins, performing not only way below expectations, but also NOT WINNING a single bet in the last two weeks! Not a single favourite wins their matches, there isn’t a single draw in France2 or The Netherlands, underdogs in Germany are losing heavily in every game. Everything is falling apart and I am 99% confident that there is no way the systems are going to recover from this annihilating string of losses. Any update on your campaigns will be appreciated.
Hi Rado,
same fate with my campaign. 3 bets won out of 28. However 2 extra teams won I decided to exclude from betting and it was the reason leagues of those 2 teams produced loss this week. Had I won 5 bets out of 30, it would’ve not changed the whole picture a lot. 1708 units actual loss, would’ve been -1319 had I bet on those 2 excluded teams. Only 1 league produced profit, everything else was a straight way down to the bottom. The worst week so far, with estimated 2 bets left today and 1 tomorrow. So, very bad can even get worse. I will still place those bets, although I’m sceptical about any improvement this round.
Hi all,
After paper testing my second portfolio I can see more balanced results so far. The losing streaks have improved significantly, and although the portfolio is still about 5 or 6 units negative, it have coped much better with the last disastrous couple of weeks. Many system are underperforming but this is something we can’t do nothing about. I hope that things will change in the upcoming weeks. I will keep paper testing until I see there is a change of pace in the overall campaign, before committing again money to it. It is obvious that we entered a very bad run on almost all leagues, and I believe this has to adjust accordingly to the forecasts eventually. I guess the strength of a good portfolio is to endure this kind of pain as well, so we will see how things will turn in the future
For some reason I don’t have reply button to answer below to Simon’s 24 September 2017 at 10:43 pm comment so, I will reply here at the bottom:
Simon, when I was going through that bumpy ride in my Summer campaign, I was also asking myself, does it really work? And so on. At the very start of campaign the curve went down and I thought, maybe something is wrong. Then I had brief success and thought, yes, this is working! During that 3.5 months struggle, I was in doubt and good mood multiple times. This is natural thinking of human kind, when matters go well, we think everything is fine, once something starts going against us, we may become mentally shaky. Currently my summer campaign is at record high. This week I made little profits at winter campaign as well and now my balance is at 0. As I found out in Soccerwidow’s campaigns, results of some leagues may be decided in the last games whether they are profitable or not and it can be big money either way. High odds systems can recover very quickly if you hit a winning streak. In my Netherlands strategy I would need only 3 straight wins at odds of 5 or even lower to be in profit. And the hit rate would still be 21.7% instead predicted average of 27.5%. This kind of recovery can happen in 1 round and a single day. Getting to this bottom with Netherlands where I am now took me 1.5 months. Of course, there may be no recovery and system will fail. Netherlands is my 3rd worst performing system at the time. My low/low medium risk strategies that are in my portfolio to help me survive losses are not working either: only 1 of 5 is profitable with overall -70 balance. If I would consider to reduce my stake size in case I’m not comfortable with the situation, I think I would do it only if my balance was somewhere around 0, how far around it’s up to each of us. What if you reduce it when it’s at -3000 after losing rounds and then winning rounds follow straight away? Like my own experience with one summer strategy I mentioned earlier and 6 winning bets in a row right after I decided to quit it. Then I thought with each winning simulation bet: if the system ends up in a profit, let this be a fee for the lesson!
Put emotions aside before you change anything, think over what good and bad those changes would bring you when strategy is having bad and good times, also, changes or no changes can turn back against or go along with you at any time. As some of us found out it’s a good idea to exclude betting draw when Feyenoord and Ajax play home, however they can have “anomalous” year at any time. Eventually, if you have an edge against bookmakers and “right” portfolio, in the long run winning systems will recoup all the losing systems. So, if you want to reduce your stakes to feel more comfortable and your balance is somewhere around 0, reduce it.
It remains to say what we endure now, we are doomed to face these kind of situations, unfortunately. Just be persistent and work to the end, there is no other way to be a winner in the long run.
Best of luck to everyone!
And it would be interesting to hear from Right Winger, how his winter campaign is performing?
Hi Jo,
I think it is best to say that our Winter League Campaign has largely been supported by the concurrent Summer League portfolio up to this point.
Our situation is therefore probably not so bad as those embarking on their first set of systems, relying only on results from them.
But we should also mention that some leagues have only played 4-5 games up to today’s date. It is still far too early to judge how the Winter Leagues will eventually perform, but suffice to say, I am not worried at this moment.
The start of a season is notoriously difficult to forecast, but results will begin settling down, with teams assuming their natural place in the pecking order as either they become favoured in future matches for a good start to the season, or become heavier and heavier underdogs as the season progresses. Some will sit between these two extremities.
League position in the EPL, for example, is slowly sorting itself out with the usual suspects beginning to rise to the top. And after only a handful of games, there are teams which have already earmarked themselves for a struggle during this campaign.
Odds apportionment will also become more and more accurate as the season progresses. In other words, the bookmakers start off the season with a blank page in terms of how teams will perform, and can only begin to correct their initial odds estimates as each team shows its form.
Whatever happens, the distribution curve of results should eventually resemble those of previous seasons.
Hang on tight – it may be a bumpy ride to begin with, but with value on our side with almost every bet we place, the long-term outlook should be a profit of one size or another.
Daniel,
I couldn’t seem to reply to your note above, so will do so here at the bottom.
It’s a very good point about the balance of the portfolio possibly being the cause of the problem. I’m not too sure though that is the case. When compiling my portfolio, I used the example campaign from RW as the benchmark for my own, and paid particular attention to the notes about defining the risk of a system. So a lot of my time was picking out the best systems from each league and arranging them into what I felt at the time was balanced. I think I did a pretty good job of mirroring what was a successful campaign that was presented to us here.
To give a clear example of my portfolio. As mentioned in my last post, I have 13 systems currently active. I will list them by risk classification. I won’t mention odds or anything so as not to give away the tables content – but if you were to look at harmonic mean, the mean of the odds is low in the low risk and gets higher by risk classification.
Russia – Favourite (Low risk)
Italy Serie A – Favourite (Low risk)
France Ligue 1 – Favourite (Low medium risk)
France Ligue 2 – Draw (Low medium risk)
Turkey – Favourite (Low medium risk)
Belgium – Home win (Low medium risk)
EPL – Draw (medium risk)
Czech Liga – Draw (medium risk)
Portugal underdog (Medium risk)
Germany – underdog (medium high risk)
Netherlands – Draw (medium high risk)
Poland – underdog (medium high risk)
Spain – underdog (medium high risk)
So from that you can see that I have 6 systems that are on the lower end of risk and 6 systems that are medium risk and medium high. So I feel I have the balance right here. Not too much of one and not too much of the other. The overall hit rate expected for the portfolio is 44%, which is higher than that of the portfolio illustrated by RW here.
The big problem for me is that the low risk systems are NOT supporting the higher risk ones. Russia is losing. Italy is break even, Turkey is losing, Belgium is showing a small profit. Ligue 2 is in freefall. So, my low risk systems are not doing the job they were intended to do. And, of course, because the higher risk systems in general are not doing so great, the overall portfolio is suffering.
I honestly don’t know how to combat this. In fact, there is very little I can do in reality. I have performed the analysis and poured hours into that, modelled my own portfolio on 2 highly successful ones run by RW, and diligently place the bets as the system dictates. So, preparation has been spot on. I can’t influence results unfortunately.
My worst fear before getting started on this was, ”What happens if prolonged losing streaks strike on multiple systems at the same time?” I think I am seeing the answer to that to a degree as to me it seems results for the system are front loaded with losses, as evidenced by the 30% average hit rate for the last 6 weeks, which dipped to 25% over the last 2 weeks. The average hit rate projected for the portfolio as a whole is 44%. So, results so far are way way way below what I expect them to be.
My thinking now is to stem the tide and try to get through this losing streak. The way to do that I’m unsure about, simply just proceed with level stakes, 1% of initial bankroll? Or recalculate based on the current bankroll?
Any money management advice would be most welcome here. Thanks 🙂
Hello Daniel,
Yes, excluding individual teams is an option we occasionally exercise. Indeed, I mentioned it in my comment above dated 11 August 2017 at 12:55 am.
Once you have your system, resort the data tab by team name and also chronologically by game number to see if there is one or two teams that constantly let the system down.
Hide them and then reprogram your formulas to see what differences there are.
I hope this helps.
Hi Right Winger,
when creating a portfolio, what do you think about analyzing the systems we chose for every league with the team analysis tab, to eventually exclude some teams that do not look promising despite the overall aspect of the system. Would this be a good fine tuning option, or could it alter the final outcome of the system in a bad way?
Hi rightwinger, quick question here.
Oddsportal added Asian Odds to their list of “required” bookmakers.
As far as I can tell, they offer odds from various bookies, including Pinnacle, SboBet and some other asian bookies,
Do you discard this bookie in your line of thinking as well?
Hello again AM0751,
I answered this question a few days ago on the User Guide article. (10 September 2017 at 1:13 pm).
Hopefully, everything there should be self-explanatory.
All the best.
Hi.
Simples question about the Stake Ratchet & Stop-loss Mechanisms: it is suggested that if you are winning, you should increase +5% after 1000 units won. And if you are loosing, you should decrease -5%, but right after 500 units lost. Is that just to have a more conservative approach towards bankroll management?
Here in soccerwidow, there is another article that indicates a different approach: https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/money-management/how-to-calculate-losing-streaks-optimal-bankroll-sport-betting/
Thanks!
Hello Gabriel,
The staking plans we suggest are not set in stone – they are merely examples of the direction you should be thinking in when understanding the importance of having a double-ended (front and back) system.
The ratchet is there to take advantage of runs of accumulated profits and also acts to increase the value of your bets further, assuming you have value on your side in the first instance.
But the more important consideration is protecting what you have, which is why the stop-loss is suggested at a lower threshold (i.e. 500 instead of 1,000 units) than the ratchet.
Therefore, I wouldn’t say this approach is conservative – we described the staking plan in this article as medium-aggressive – we are not acting totally gung-ho when increasing the stakes, nor are we crying over a little spilt milk when bad runs happen.
The reality is that the stop-loss in this example first activated once a loss of five times the initial 100 unit stake affected results. For the ratchet, the stakes were increased when ten times the initial stake had been won.
Ultimately, the decision is yours as to how ‘conservative’ or adventurous you wish to be with the staking plan, but whatever combination you choose, bear in mind that once profits are in the bank, the first consideration is to get what is effectively ‘free money’ working as hard as possible for you.
If you are going to ratchet the stakes, you must also operate a stop-loss at the same time – never trade on one without the other.
I hope this is of some assistance and thanks for your question.
Jo,
Check out the conveyor belt comment from rightwinger: https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/20k-in-214-days-winter-league-hdafu-tables/#comment-18844
Hi AM075111,
I think Ajax is also the “wrong” team to bet on draw when Ajax is home team. However, once I found it out, I had both teams 3 bets already lost in total. I don’t know again, is it a good idea to quit betting them if I already started. I’m like thinking what if they draw suddenly?
AZ playing away is almost zero sum game, Vitesse is really worth consideration, but again, both teams have little data set as away teams in my opinion. My strategy is 1 half.
Maybe Right Winger has some advice?
Hi guys,
Musing here. In the dutch draw system, you might want to have a look at the individual results for some teams the last 5 seasons.
Check out Feyenoord playing at home and AZ and Vitesse playing away.
Cheers.
I have done this with all my systems, although have only excluded the single most unprofitable team in any given system. Feyenoord at home are an absolute no-go for me, and I’ve also taken Bayern Munich out of my Bundesliga system and Bordeaux away from my Ligue 1.