Following up the successful 2016 Summer League Campaign, here is our complete report on the 2016-17 Winter League Campaign, based on 18 different top flight leagues.
2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve
We will try to avoid repeating what was said in the summer league article so that it is all new information for you here.
For the sake of completeness, you should still read and digest both reports for a full idea of our strategies and thought processes.
And you will find the current stock of available HDAFU tables via this link.
2016-17 Campaign Report
Measures of Risk
Before beginning to plan any portfolio or placing bets, you will need to review your analyses and rank the systems you have found according to risk exposure based on the values of the upper inflection point odds.
This will allow you to compile a portfolio with a healthy balance of risk, which is essential to the success of any investment plan.
Here is our rough guide:
- Low Risk (Probability 45.00% or more; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.22)
- Low-medium Risk (Probability 44.99%-35.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.85)
- Medium Risk (Probability 34.99%-22.50%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 4.44)
- Medium-high Risk (Probability 22.99%-16.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 6.25)
- High Risk (Probability 15.99% or less; upper inflection point odds above 6.25)
Discretion is used if a system does not fit these parameters or crosses two or more classifications – In these cases, the harmonic mean odds of all the games in the set is used as the benchmark to guage risk. The Excel formula for a range of odds in cells A1 to A100 would be: =HARMEAN(A1:A100)
Measures of Success
You will also need a definitive framework to be able to judge the final results.
For us, the final results of any league fall into four distinct categories:
- Systems that achieve a six-season-high (i.e. profits larger than any of the previous five seasons). (Over-Achievers).
- Those that make a profit over and above the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case), but fall short of six-season-high results. (Achievers).
- Strategies that break-even or, record a tiny profit or loss up to the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case). (Zero-Sum).
- Leagues that make a loss over and above the size of the initial stake. (Losers).
You can already see that two of these outcomes are favourable, one is neutral, and only one is detrimental.
2016-17 League-by-League Review
Let’s have a brief look at each league to see how our 22 systems fared. (Alphabetically according to the tab codes in the workbook):
1. AUS1 – Austria Bundesliga – Whole Season System
Only eight of 28 bets won, but this was enough to see a profit of £882.00. Hit rate and yield were both below the calculated averages and the resultant profit figure was lower than any of the five previous seasons’ figures.
Result: Achiever
2. BEL1 – Belgium Jupiler League – Whole Season System
Up to, but not including Europa League and Championship Group splits
Both the estimated hit rate (33 out of 97 bets won) and yield figures were surpassed by wide margins, leading to a six-season-high profit figure of £3,108.00.
Result: Over-Achiever
3. CZE1A – Czech Republic 1. Liga – First Half Season System
Up to the 04/12/2016 winter break
Nine out of 22 bets won, and whilst the hit rate and yield both outstripped expectations, the profit figure settled at £1,247.00, the fourth largest in the last six seasons.
Result: Achiever
4. CZE1B – Czech Republic 1. Liga – Second Half Season System
From 18/02/2017 start of the second half of the season
This one suffered its worst result in the last six seasons, but the resultant loss was minimal at -£310.00.
Result: Loser
5. DEN1A – Denmark Superligaen – First Half Season System
This was the only system employed in this league purely because the format of the second half of the 2016-17 season was to change from previous seasons.
Although hit rate and yield were both below estimates, the system still recorded its third highest total for six seasons at £1,238.00.
There were twice as many bets than expected (largely due to the fact that around 40% more games than usual were played in the first half of the season to accommodate the new second half season format).
Result: Achiever
6. ENG1 – England Premier League – Whole Season System
This system suffered the longest losing streak we have ever encountered, almost 14% worse than expected, for a very painful 36 straight losses. (A six-season-low).
However, the situation was mostly recovered by three big winners all carrying odds of over 12.00, for a final loss of just -£32.00.
The last six bets of the season lost, but had only one of these been a winner, this system would have returned a profit. Small margins.
Result: Zero-Sum
7. FRA1 – France Ligue 1 – Whole Season System
Hit rate and yield were both below par, but the league turned in a steady performance for a profit of £1,634.00, ranked fifth largest in the last six seasons.
Result: Achiever
8. FRA2 – France Ligue 2 – Whole Season System
The same story as France Ligue 1, but with a profit of £2,801.00, for its third largest profit figure in six seasons.
This one was unusual for a much higher number of bets than expected. (215 vs. 119 estimate – Profit was at £2,523.00 after 119 bets).
Result: Achiever
9. GER1A – Germany Bundesliga 1 – First Half Season System
Up to 21/12/2016 winter break
Another below par system, but one that still achieved a profit of £1,098.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).
Result: Achiever
10. GER1B – Germany Bundesliga 1 – Second Half Season System
From 20/01/2017 start of the second half of the season
The very rare inclusion of a system with two non-profitable seasons (the oldest two) in the previous five.
It featured one more bet than expected, which won, to total one more winner than expected. Hit rate and yield both exceeded estimates for a profit of £1,294.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).
Result: Achiever
11. GRE1 – Greece Super League – Whole Season System
The hit rate here was almost 8% below estimate and resulted in the worst performance for six seasons, and a loss of -£819.00.
Result: Loser
Hi Right Winger,
teams playing their home games at a different stadium for a season than they used to, should they be excluded from betting? Same with “Away” teams playing their away games at Wembley against Tottenham, that plays its home games at a different stadium this season. Maybe matches like this should be excluded also, in case I bet on away teams and their odds fall in the range? Because Tottenham is like half home half away team and who knows how does it affect the game?
Hello Jo,
I answered exactly the same question from a reader in connection with the Value Calculator a couple of days ago. There I mentioned that Tottenham should be excluded from all Value Calculator analyses as they are currently not playing home games ‘at home’.
However, for the HDAFU tables, which don’t rely on historical head-to-heads, but rather on historical odds, I would say it is safe to leave them in your analyses. I certainly continue to include them in mine.
As an aside, Tottenham’s home ground dilemma will also continue into next season when they return to White Hart Lane. Of course, everything about their new stadium will be different including the size of the crowd (which will be smaller than the ones they are experiencing inside Wembley right now). I can’t remember any other top flight team in any prominent footballing nation during my lifetime (50 years) playing home matches at three different stadiums in three consecutive seasons.
RW (and guys),
I took a break from placing real bets after a torrid run of 11 straight losing weeks – but continued to paper test the remaining bets in the systems I had running. Below are the results.
Ligue 1, (Favourite) +515
Serie A (Favourite) -103
Super Lig (Favourite) -1027
Russia Premier (Favourite) +78.9
Bundesliga (Underdog) +760
La Liga (Underdog)-2308
Primera Liga (Underdog) +630
Ekstraklasa (Underdog) +1293
Jupiler League (Home win) -102
Ligue 2 (Draw) -223
Netherlands (Draw) +513
Czech Liga (Draw) -52
EPL (Draw) +1301
Total +1245.9
Please note that the Ligue 2, Jupiler League, Primera League and Super Lig are whole season systems, so those figures are going to change as the season goes on. The other figures are final.
As you can see, based on £100 flat stakes the whole portfolio up until the winter break did make a profit. But a couple of disastrous failures (Spain, Turkey) really dragged down the profit figure considerably. The hit rates for both systems had dropped hugely on the last 5 seasons.
I had a look over the system data, and my original analysis notes to see where these 2 systems could have been flawed, but can’t really see any reason why I would not have chosen them. The hit rates were consistent over 5 seasons, both systems were in profit at least 4 out of 5 seasons, no one season was an anomaly, there were plenty of betting opportunities in each system, profit figures were very good over 5 seasons in both systems. Bottom line is the systems looked good and most things checked out.
Any thoughts on this? Are there things I should have spotted with the system that in practice I didn’t? Or is this type of big failure just rotten luck and bound to happen from time to time?
The spain system was an underdog system between odds ranges of 3.77 and 8.9. Turkey was a favourite system between odds of 2.05 and 2.57.
Thanks guys.
Hi Simon,
It’s difficult for me to comment on half a season’s results or predict what will happen with only four systems in play during the second half of the season.
Personally speaking, I would be apprehensive about running with just four systems from now until May. If just one fails miserably it will likely negate successes in the others.
If you don’t wish to extend your portfolio by running more systems then my advice would be to sit on your laurels and take the +1,245.90 profit, rather than risking it. You’ve made 12+ times your standard stake already, so quitting now is no disgrace. Paper test the remainder instead. This is what I would do.
With the money already in the bank, it’ll be easier to take if you see you would eventually have made more, but so much more of a kick in the teeth if you go on to lose what you have worked so hard to gain thus far.
I hope this helps.
Hi Simon,
La Liga was zero game last season and it went far worse this year. But I have systems that were zero game at some season over the 5 years and the next year was record high. I don’t see a way to predict that La Liga underdog was going to fail this bad this year. Feyenoord performed poorly regarding its home matches and betting on draw over previous 5 years (4 seasons was loss, the only profitable season produced just +192), but this season’s result was very good: +928. Based on this I consider it as a random statistical distribution. Something that performed well fails, and vice versa, but having value on our side the end result should be profit. Luck is probably also existent to some extent in choosing systems. Although system with higher number of matches may look more reliable, but there are no guarantees it won’t fail, with more matches it can even fail far worse in my opinion. This season’s results and the way things go so far makes clear why football betting is always very risky, deviations can be huge due to so many variables. Unfortunately for us, no system guarantees profit in betting except arbing.
At least your portfolio performed better in the 1st half of the season compared to mine, had you bet Away win 6.41-9.50 in Jupiler League 1st half, it would’ve been even better by +1468 instead of a small loss by going for home win. Had I bet on Premier League draw instead of underdog, I would’ve ended 1st half in small profit. But these type of bets were of different risk and in order to balance my portfolio I had to choose underdog.
Regarding recent performance of my portfolio, after making decent recovery right before Christmas, the last 5 weeks after that were like 2 steps forward and 3 steps back, it’s -3095 now. I’m not sure what I’ll do with the next summer season, I will probably wait until the last moment and then make a decision to buy HDAFU or not.
Can someone tell me about the newest addition to the “mandatory bookmakers” 1XBet in oddsportal? It seems that nearly always 1XBet has the highest odds for the matches in my systems. Their payout is over 98%, which is more than even Pinnacle and seems impossible! Should I include 1XBet when I check the odds, or should I disregard it like Marathon and Tempobet?
Hi Rado,
Treat 1XBet the same as Marathonbet (they are both Russian sites and linked in some way).
Ignore them for the sake of selecting your bets, but feel free to place bets with them once you have decided that the match is within your inflection point criteria.
I hope this is clear and thanks again for your question.
And I also noticed that they have completely removed Tempobet from the list of bookmakers. One unreliable bookie is gone 😀
I just thought I’d let anyone who is interested know my mid season results up until today. I missed the first couple of weeks of the season on a few leagues. After a difficult first 6 weeks or so these are my results (I only did 7 leagues). These results are to level stakes:
Holland: +10 points
France Ligue 1: +0.2 points
France Ligue 2: – 23 points
Italy: -2 points
Germany: +24 points
Turkey: +7 points
Belgium: + 2 points.
Total : + 18 points.
As we know Ligue 2 has been shocking though did recover somewhat from a low of -31 points at one stage. Germany has been fantastic. I am pleased with these results after the bad start, though clearly before starting I would have hoped for better but I have enjoyed the process up to now and will continue. Unsure whether to go for the summer league tables but most probably will.
I have a question. Do you think that it will be a good idea if I change the ratchet system to have equal increase and decrease trigger amounts? Because in the exmple by Soccerwidow, it is increase every 1000 units profit and decrease every 500 units loss. Wouldn’t it be better if the stake decrease occurs also at 1000 units loss? If you have a bigger bank, this must not be a problem?
Hi Rado,
By all means tailor the ratchet and stop-loss systems to suit your own needs. The examples outlined in our articles are purely for guidance – please do not take them as gospel.
The figures and strategies used were just an example of how to approach bank management. I am sure everyone has their own individual view on the situation, but whatever you decide is right for you, the overarching message is to protect the bank at all costs and speculate to accumulate when you hit a rich seam of results.
I hope this helps in some small way.
Just a quick update here. After 6 straight weeks with minimal profit/loss (under 1 unit), this week was incredibly successful – over 15 units profit! Some systems have been exploding recently, but the problem is that the others are failing greatly – for example the away win in Spain and the home win in Australia. The favourites in Switzerland are also a disaster. These three systems are performing incredibly bad and each of them is at about 10 unit loss. If they were not here, I would have been in an enormous profit (I’m still in profit, but not that big). For the past 2 monts, thing have been improving a bit, I hope this trend continues into the next year.
Hi Rado,
great to know you have positive results recently. My results are improving also, I was at the record low of -7050, now it’s -1040. Downswing from the highest to the lowest bank is 10000, at 100 flat stakes. Results started to pick up after 480 bets out of 1300 estimated. I have 686 bets placed in total. This campaign is very heavily demoralizing, strong nerves and huge patience demanding.
Regarding your Swiss favourites, I bet this system too. Current result is profit unlike yours and I’m pretty sure I know what odds range you bet on there. When I sorted everything out I didn’t like zero odds were higher than the lower inflection point, difference – 18 ticks. Quite significant at these odds in my eyes. So, I decided to shorten the odds range I would bet on – raising lower inflection point and lowering upper inflection point. And I got zero odds lower than my lower inflection point – every bet I will place will be value bet. I tried to cut lower odds first, but it still didn’t work out, so I cut odds from both sides. This manipulation cut potential profits by almost a half over 5 seasons and 1 season turned into a loss, but for now it works, although it’s whole season strategy and final result is in question. But that’s an idea for you in the future if you keep doing this.
Good luck to everyone.
Hi – is there an ETA for the Summer League sheets yet, please? I’m keen on getting the lot once you’ve got them sorted.
Thanks.
Hi Scott,
The 2018 Summer League tables are now available for sale.
They should be the most accurate tables we have released to date with every set of 1X2 odds checked and audited to represent the highest odds at the close of the ante post market.
They also include a new tool that generates the implied probability of a chosen system in accordance with its harmonic mean odds. This should allow users to easily gauge the risk of each system and to build a well-balanced portfolio of systems.
In the interests of balance, and recognising that this has taken some bad press this season, my summer league campaign ended up returning an 800% profit on the cost of the spreadsheets (at a flat £25 per bet).
My winter league is now breaking even having been 36 points down at its lowest ebb. It’s performing much more reliably now. I fully intend to purchase a full suite of sheets for the summer leagues.
Has anyone persevered with this?
Thanks for your swift response Right Winger. Yes, your response makes sense. I always believed that the larger the data sample, the more accurate the probability model would be. I can now see that the changes to a league makeup could have an effect. Did you experiment with shorter/longer periods when reaching your conclusion of 5 seasons or was this a gut feeling starting point for you?
Yes, we did experiment with various analyses. Even to the point of recording how many teams would be making at least their sixth consecutive appearance in the forthcoming season; in other words, what percentage of teams’ statistics would be made up of five whole seasons prior (i.e. five season ever-present teams).
Visually, some leagues’ data have a ‘consistency’ percentage in the 70’s or 80’s (e.g. U.S.A. M.L.S. = no relegation), which you might think could be construed as an indicator of a more regular data set. Other leagues of a similar size can drop into the 30’s (e.g. Ligue 2 = promotion and relegation). But, despite this gulf between the team-make-up of the M.L.S. and Ligue 2, results in those leagues are still surprisingly consistent in themselves, if vastly different from each other.
In the M.L.S. over the five seasons 2013-17, home wins averaged 51.71%, draws 25.88%, and away wins 22.41%. The variance of each of these five seasons from the average is less than +/-4% for the home win, less than +/-6% for draws, and less than +/-4% for the away win. In Ligue 2 between 2012-17, the home win variance was just over +/-3%, less than +/-2% for draws, and less than +/-4% for the away win. Maths is not an exact science, but this is close enough.
The M.L.S. figures are probably ‘spikier’ because their league has gradually expanded in numbers during this time whilst the French has retained the consistency of its composition throughout.
Taking the French as an example, if we looked at larger and larger numbers of data, all we would see is a similar pattern to the one we already see using just the last five seasons’ figures. And besides, the relevancy of the results decays the longer back we look in time. Five is therefore enough to form a snapshot significantly accurate enough for our needs. Anything less than five is not enough in our opinion.
I hope this helps in some small way.
Hi,
I’ve been reading the website and wondered whether I have missed the reasoning for the selection of 5 season for the data sample. Having studied some leagues in the past, there is a degree of variation in consistency of results. Would the selection system cope with a 6 season analysis in one league and a 7 season analysis in another? Or would this work against the synergy that is the goal?
Hello Thechump,
Five seasons’ data provide enough historical results for a ‘significant’ sample size.
Using more results is unnecessary because:
1) Accuracy is enough with five seasons and adding more only increases the workload (in collecting stats and analysing them), without adding any greater levels of statistical significance. For example, have a look at the Goal Distribution article to see how similar the distribution curves are, season upon season. It’s the law of diminishing returns as, using more and more seasons of data, brings less added benefit to the analysis.
2) The further back in time you look, the less relevant the results become to the current or forthcoming season. Turnover of teams via promotion and relegation creates more and more statistical noise, skewing results of the analysis.
In short, snapshots using five seasons’ data are enough. We don’t need more. Thanks for your question – I hope the answer is self-explanatory.
Your weekend sounds a lot like mine, Corner.
Halfway through Saturday, I was staring down the barrel of a weekend that was about to undo all the progress made in the previous few weeks.
By the end of Sunday it had all been recovered and I found myself 1 point up.
First of all thanks to all that you are posting the performance of your winter campaign.
It helped me because i was wondering if do something wrong. We all play different Systems, but the tendency is the same.
I have 17 Systems. I placed 600 bets so far and my hitrate is 30,27 %. The Forecast Hitrate is 39,69 % I am down – 46 points.
The same feeling for me like Simon on Saturday evening. I had the longest loosing streak ever of 15 games in a row. From Friday to Saturday 2 wins out of 21. On Saturday evening i was down to -61 points. I decided a last investement to bring my credit to 75 points.
On Sunday i made a profit of + 15 points. This weekend is +-0.
The last 5 weeks i lost -4 points. The 5 weeks before i lost -42 points. So i can see an improvement.
The problem are the big odds. With odds above 4,0 i have lost -54 points. With odds From 1,5 to 3,99 i have won +8 points.
I place an average of 45 bets on a weekend. When i read your posts i see the most people have around 30 bets. Maybe i have to much Systems at the moment with a tendency that is so far away from the last 5 years.
What worries me the most ?
I checked my systems in the last 5 years. In the worst year in early November there was a profit of + 130 points. I am so far away from that.
14 wins out of 36, 38.88% hit rate, +1224 units profit this weekend. Didn’t have a weekend like this for almost 3 months and it’s 2nd profitable weekend in a row. One of the worst performers Netherlands almost recovered in just 2 weekends. Ligue 2 won 3 bets this weekend out of 4 with 1 estimated bet tomorrow. The biggest pain at the moment remains Spain being at whopping -3052, 11 bets lost in a row and making 65% of my losses. Denmark won 3 bets out of 5 and sliced losses from -1005 to -549.
I had an absolutely incredible weekend. About 10 units profit and almost all losses erased. The draws in Netherlands have really picked up as of lately. The favorites in Italy are winning. I also had 2 pretty high odd wins in Poland. Burnley’s win also brought big profits. The only systems that continue to be disastrous are the Ligue2 draws, the favorites in Switzerland and the home wins in Australia. The other 10 of my 13 systems are not so bad as of now. To sum it up, that’s a second week in a row with a respectable profit for me. I SINCERELY HOPE it’s not just a coincidence and the good hitrate continues. Right now I am sitting at 31,5% hitrate out of 38,9% projected, which is not incredibly good, but is a huge improvement over the 19% hitrate I was at 3-4 weeks ago. Now I am a little bit below zero balance from when I started 2 months ago. Given the fact I was at one time over 20 units down, that’s also an enormous improvement. Maybe there’s hope.