It seems, Odoo, that I misunderstood your previous question as you placed in an HDAFU Table article but referring to the Cluster Tables. Please ask any further questions re. Cluster Tables in the FAQ article: Frequently Asked Questions – Over Under Cluster Tables

In answer to your question… Do you know this article here? What are Inflection Points and their Use in System Betting It will probably provide you with the answer you’re looking for.

To answer your query shortly: No, it’s pretty unlikely that you made a mistake. Bookmakers adjust odds according to market pressure and expectations. So, if your backtesting shows good results then the future is likely to bring good results too. Just be very careful and adhere to a strict staking plan.

Dear Odoo, you can certainly try but to be honest, I do not know. This particular scenario I have not analysed and, therefore, I cannot say if it works or not. Sorry.

The Inflectionpoint HDAFU tables provide such a plethora of information and different angles that the quartile approach may be well worthwhile to explore.

Have a very Happy Xmas and good luck with your betting!

Hi Odoo,

Firstly, Excel can only cope with 200 markers for a graph.

The Inflection Points graph in your spreadsheet is powered by data from the Odds Rank column.

If you sort the data (rows 6:1833) by the odds column L (smallest to largest), you will see that the odds rank numbers in column B then line-up in batches from 1-200.

To assign the 200 groups of numbers it is merely a case of dividing the total number of data sets by 200. In this case, 1,828 matches divided by 200 provides roughly nine matches per batch (rank).

I hope this answers your question and helps you to understand how Excel graphs work.

Thanks for your question and all the best for now!

Hi Florian,

Yes, we are both fine, thanks very much for asking – I am back in the UK these days whilst Elena continues to bask in the warmth of Tenerife (lucky girl!) 🙂

2016-17? Seems almost an aeon away now! If I remember rightly, Australia A-League, EPL and Greece Super League were all based on audited Oddsportal odds at the point of kick-off, where manual adjustments had been made according to the timestamps on each set of match odds. They were as accurate as we could get them.

The other Winter Leagues used unaudited Oddsportal odds (i.e. scraped as they appeared), again at the close of the ante-post market.

The range of bookmakers we used is outlined in our article about the settings in Oddsportal.

One thing I will say is that when revisiting Oddsportal after more than three seasons (bearing in mind the odds used for 2016-17 were for the seasons 2011-16), what you will find now is not going to be the same picture. Oddsportal odds have a habit of being distorted by bookmakers that were in the portfolio in 2016, for example, but which have since been discarded as a featured bookmaker for whatever reason.

In other words, I have found in the past that things get churned around to some small degree every year making it nigh on impossible to replicate the same results when scraping odds from Oddsportal. Of course, the first set of odds used for each table, 2011-12 (seven seasons back now), will probably be worse than the other seasons, and so on down the line in varying degrees.

To be honest with you, I think you’re likely to be fighting a losing battle if you are trying to replicate a past portfolio.

The newer home odds divided by away odds ratio approach to system building and match selection has shifted the emphasis away from purely looking at match odds to determine cluster groups. Indeed, the relationship between the home and away odds is a far more accurate benchmark, which doesn’t tend to change radically during the ante-post market.

In answer to your second question, apart from Football-data.co.uk’s free Excel sheets, the only other source of odds that I am aware of is a paid service courtesy of Football-bet-data.com.

Florian, I hope these answers help you in some small way and thanks once again for taking the time and trouble to contact us.

All the best for now.

I hope you are doing well! 🙂 if I may ask you the following: which odds have you been using for your 2016/2017 winter leagues excel sheets? I have tried to reproduce your portfolio for the French Ligue 1 on the paper backing the favorite. However the odds ive been using slightly differ from yours and interestingly this small difference eventually makes a big difference. My result is 904 units compared to your 1.634 units. As the odds decide which game you bet we have a different portfolio (your portfolio consists of 138 matches in France, mine has 131). I would like to reproduce your portfolio but would need to know the exact odds you were using.

My odds: I used historical data from football-data.co.uk. For whatever reason their excel sheet does not contain maxodds at the market.)

So I took Bet365 Interwetten, BWin, Ladbrokes, Pinnacle, William Hill, VC Bet and Pinnacle closing odds (last odds before match starts). That’s all the odds I got from the excel sheet from football-data.co.uk. for the French Ligue 1 2016/2017 season.

Now, which odds exactly have you been using? My guess is that you have been using the highest odds available on the market at kickoff. But where do you get the data from?

Last question: do you know any other website that provides historical odds in excel sheets?

Thank you and warm greetings to Teneriffe!

Florian

I have seen so many of you experiencing different runs of fortune this season; many of you communicate with me via private mail and many of you post your experiences on the blog. Firstly, therefore, thank you for even bothering with our website. We are always very humbled by the support.

Although I can’t share anyone’s individual paths, what I can say is that the raft of results vary from exceptional (several better than our own) all the way through to pretty disastrous.

This range of results is of course down to the following facts:

1) No two portfolios are exactly the same
2) Bet selection criteria may differ from person to person during the ante post period
3) Each person will certainly have different bookmakers at his/her disposal
4) Bets will be placed at different times and/or at different odds

In addition to these fundamental differences there are many more variables such as missed bet opportunities, lack of consistency with the timings of bets, and personal traits such as greed in waiting for higher prices to appear before committing to the bet, or even hesitancy in not being confident enough to place the bets because ‘common sense’ dictates otherwise.

Whatever the differences between you all, whilst it is nice to encourage each other when things are going well and commiserate when things are failing, please all be aware that you are indeed all different. When you begin to compare results with each other, please, please always have in the back of your mind that your are effectively comparing apples with pears, and don’t draw too many conclusions from someone else’s experiences.

Your results and, more importantly, how you come by them, will bear little resemblance to each other. This is important to remember, and appreciating this fact will go a long way to understanding that ‘herd mentality’ is exactly what the bookmakers thrive on.

I do feel genuinely very sorry and remorseful for those who have bad weeks, and happy (and sometimes even justified!) when reports are received of roaring successes. And like a standard distribution curve, we receive equal numbers of both.

Personally speaking, we have been using this systematic betting approach for several years in both full-term market and in-play trading scenarios.

The three most important elements are:

a) Size matters! The larger portfolio the better.
b) Portfolio balance matters! A balanced range of bets from low-low/medium-medium-medium/high-high is essential.
c) Bank roll management is crucial. protect what you have and speculate when you can.

Perfecting the other necessary cosmetic details such as identifying bet placements, persevering through crises, monitoring results, checking everything, adjusting attitudes, and so on, is a very personal thing. I can tell you that what works for one will be unpalatable to another. You must find your own balances here.

And lastly, there are two types of mistakes: good mistakes (lucky wins), and bad mistakes (uneducated losses). But you must always be in a position to recognise mistakes (whether good or bad) as mistakes whenever you make them. Write them down. Post them in front of your screen. And try very hard not to repeat them.

I hope this helps.

Quick update on my paper testing of the remainder of my campaign. The 2nd half systems have had a few rounds to get going, and with the results in, to date the overall picture for the entire campaign is as follows:

Total profit based on £100 stakes = £2414.90 (Which is 24.14 points of profit)
Overall hit rate is 36.05%. Expected is 44%
Yield = 2.74%. Expected is 26.43%

So as it stands, even though the performance is below the average of the last 5 seasons, the whole thing is in profit.

I regret not sticking with this and carrying on placing bets, as if I had done so, I would have recouped losses and got back in profit. Live and learn as they say.

Still, a lot can happen, this season from now until the end. But I just wanted to report the period of success and to say that long term, this is working out as planned.

Summer leagues start this weekend with Ireland, so I plan to begin a fresh campaign with real wagers then.

Good luck guys.