HT/FT – Betting on Equally Matched Teams – Conclusion

Following my articles on the theory and practice of System X1, I now present the results of the second round of matches together with an overall conclusion.

The results of the selected matches played on 22 January, 2011 were as follows:




Putting these results into perspective and combining them with those in our first sample, the following table shows the distribution of the 9 possible HT/FT combinations:




Based on the theory of similar odds for these types of games between evenly matched teams, the weighted stake strategy produces the following financial outcomes for the chosen HT/FT combinations:




The following table sums-up the full-time results in both rounds of matches:




As it looked quite promising in the evaluation, the table below shows the financial result of betting on the full-time draw in each of the selected 20 matches:

Summary

Even though 20 matches is still an insignificant sample size, from the results the HT/FT combination home/home (11) can probably be discarded. Also, X1 did not prove as productive as the hype promised, but this combination is perhaps worthy of further observation. Paper testing such a theory should be undertaken over a far greater period than just 2 rounds of matches and I would suggest 6 months or even a whole season before patterns will begin to emerge to enable betting with any degree of confidence.

The above evaluation is based on assumptions which can cause problems when judging the results:

• Firstly my selection of fixtures used Ladbrokes odds. Therefore, I am assuming that their odds are always consistent. For the simplification of this article using one bookmaker’s odds is absolutely fine but when using real money it is necessary to select for each chosen match the best bookmaker odds using as a benchmark for evauation those which reflect best the equally matched teams. Only statistics will reveal whether the teams really are evenly matched.
• Secondly, the arithmetical examples are made under the assumption that it is possible to obtain similar odds every weekend and that you have accounts with the best bookmakers.
• Thirdly, when choosing your portfolio of bookmakers bear in mind the currency in which they operate and the possibility of exchange rate gains or losses.

In truth, I have omitted several parameters to keep this analysis as simple as possible and I therefore strongly advise against using money to evaluate your own combination bet selection for equally matched teams in terms of the XX and 22 events, and also the full-time draw even though my paper exercise indicated a profit for the two observed weekends.

Conclusion

The intention of this article is to give an idea how a betting system theory can be analysed, further developed and adjusted.

My last advice is that whatever you want to gamble upon, as no individual person has the capacity to thoroughly evaluate everything in infinite detail it is always better to choose a certain strategy, stick to it, and refine it each week by observing it over months or even years. In my opinion money can only be made by betting with strong discipline and a systematic approach. Even if your system returns only small percentages of your stakes, many small amounts add up to a pile of money.

I wish you all a lot of luck!

I would be genuinely interested to hear from anyone who uses or has used the System X1 and what your experiences are/were.


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