22 February 2025

72 thoughts on “Finding a System Using the HO/AO Quotient”

  1. Hi Elena

    It has been a while. I have been wanting to ask how the Tables are performing since VAR introduction as my portfolio suffered and from my communication with you last year, it was perhaps related or so Robert thought.

    I have noticed some odds have been lowered across all the major leagues as well.

    Is there an updated review that I can read, or perhaps you can comment on?

    Thank you in advance

    Reply

    1. Hi Mike,

      Whilst VAR has certainly affected the in-play trading process on betting exchanges, I haven’t really noticed its effect on full-time results.

      To be honest, with the HDAFU systems we employ, I never bother following the matches. It is just a question of identifying and placing the bets and then rounding up the results at the end of the day or even later sometimes. I never even know whether VAR has played a part in any of the matches.

      By coincidence, there is a full 2019 Summer League Campaign Report on the way, so watch this space over the next day or so for the summary.

      Thanks for taking the time and trouble to contact us again.

      Reply

  2. Hi

    Just wanted to touch base and find out whether anyone was able to make a profit this season – Winter Leagues.

    Unfortunately, I had to bail out at the half way mark due to the terrible runs in all the systems. I was running quite a few, and all stacked up very well.

    Not sure if it is VAR affecting things, and prices have certainly been adjusted.

    I have a separate underdog system.that finished in profit, but not as high as expected.

    Also the Jupiler odds were slashed this season compares to last!

    Very frustrating.

    Reply

    1. Hi Mike,

      Thanks for staying in touch and for sharing your experience.

      Yes, the bookmakers are always one step ahead of the game and slashed the Belgian odds across the board in 2018-19 because they could see suspicious betting patterns. We’ve all suffered because of this and the corruption investigation into the Jupiler League continues as I write, with an outcome expected in early June.

      Regarding the portfolios, again, smaller profits than expected, with some systems closed down before their scheduled finish. Summer Leagues have started well, so watch this space…

      Reply

    1. Thanks for your kind words, Martin.

      Yes, use Oddsportal unless indicated otherwise in the Notes tab of each HDAFU table.

      Set your list of bookmakers in Oddsportal to resemble ours and use the highest odds (according to the timestamps) when analysing games for inclusion.

      Hope this is self-explanatory and thanks for your question.

      Reply

  4. Hi

    Just to double check this example. Are the odds referring to the First Half Odds market?
    Is this data included in the sheet?

    Thanks
    Tony

    Reply

  5. Hello soccerwidow, amazing resources and website, thank you! Question – for quite a few systems that I found (and back tested to 2013..) it looks like the ‘edge’ or profitable months are gone by second half of 2017.. Do you think this might be due to you 😉 Just thinking – if your approach helps me to find a system, everyone else could do the same and the edge will be gone sooner than later… 🙁 ?!?!

    Reply

    1. Hi Chris, have you read the article 2017-18 Winter League Report – 35k in 138 Days? From the 10 monitored systems 8 underperformed and 2 overperformed but in the end, the portfolio hit the target. The 2 systems that overperformed were whole-season systems.

      However, this isn’t actually the reason.

      The main reason for the good performance was that these two systems contained the largest number of expected bets; Germany 57 and Italy 116.

      There were two other systems with over 50 bets in the portfolio (Austria and the EPL) that didn’t do so badly but the systems with fewer bets were far too volatile to deliver reliable results.

      Therefore, please have a look at the profitable systems you identified and check whether the groups are actually big enough to make any judgements.

      Answering your question… It cannot be caused by ‘us’ that the market doesn’t have an edge anymore. Although there are a few punters that follow our advice and bet successfully the ones that see it through from the beginning to the end are just a handful not thousands. And just a few punters that find an edge and use it don’t change the market. There are hundreds of bookmakers and thousands of matches to play every month.

      🙂

      Reply

        1. Hi Chris, I didn’t mean that you need to be ‘big’ enough; the systems in your portfolio though, have to be. In addition, you have to diversify between at least 5 (even better 10) leagues.

          Here’s an article about diversification and risk management: Judging the Risk of a Football Betting Portfolio.

          Do you know that article? Is your portfolio of bets compliant with the advice given in that article?

          Reply

          1. yea, I know what you mean and yes I have read it all.

            I just wouldn’t consider a system if it has turned into red for the last 6 months despite it being overall, all things considered, a positive (+70% ROI!) and significant (+2k bets) system since 2013 – I would only put a single system into the portfolio if it has proven itself within the last 5 months as well – otherwise it might be a sign of a market characteristic that has simply changed by now.

            Argh – it’s just sad for this particular case (have you seen that graph..), as this looked so promising haha..

            I will find other ones though 🙂

          2. Hi Chris,

            when you search for systems you will hardly find any that performed positively five seasons in-a-row. There is often at least one year in the red and sometimes another year with a very low profit. But it’s the combination of the systems, in other words, their synergy that makes a portfolio strong.

            I was trying to make a point in the many articles that I wrote that you must not judge each system individually but always look at the whole portfolio. If the graph shows one system only then it may be actually worthwhile to include it in the 2018/19 portfolio.

            The problem is that with lower probabilities (higher odds), which make a 1X2 betting system viable, there will always be a substantial up and down within each individual system.

            I hope this makes sense and I wish you good luck!

  7. Dear Soccerwidow,
    since I bought your book and started to study seriously, I meanwhile gathered a lot of data from Oddsportal.com included the odds which are a sort of mean of odds offered from three or four Bookmakers. After finished the book I have been intrigued by your HDAFU system which is a fantastic statistical model, but now I am a bit scared because of the odds I gathered are too close to the KO time, do you have any suggestion on how to use them compared to the current ones? could they lead me to make errors?

    Reply

    1. Hi Giampietro, odds fluctuate before kick-off but they don’t change hugely. So, it doesn’t really matter when you check the odds. A former favourite doesn’t suddenly become the underdog and vice versa (unless the favourite and underdog prices were close, to begin with).

      I understand that you’ve got the course book so you then know what I mean when I speak of ‘fair odds’ ranges. Please do a little exercise…

      Pick any game, ideally, one with good liquidity. Find the Over/Under odds for that game 48 hours before kick-off (unfortunately, we can only do that exercise with O/U odds as I haven’t published anything yet on how to calculate HDA odds, sorry!). Get them all! O 0.5, O 1.5, O 2.5, and so on

      Calculate the expected ‘Zero’ odds for that match as well as the expected odds range.

      24 Hours later… Get the changed odds… Compare them with your calculations as well as with the odds you gathered the day earlier.

      Now, approximately 3 hours before kick-off, gather the odds every half hour.

      Can you see in which direction they are changing, if at all?

      It is very likely that the odds that already were within the ‘fair odds’ range will remain in that range and that the odds that were outside the ‘fair odds’ range have moved closer to it; often they will end up within the range just before kick-off.

      The market is relatively ‘fair’ as there are thousands of people that carry out calculations like you. If there is any huge discrepancy between the prices (odds) in the market and the probabilities, this is spotted immediately and taken advantage off. The bookmakers are aware of that and try their best not to allow for arbitrage situations.

      This applies to the Over/Under odds and of course, to the HDA odds as well. It’s just that with the HDA odds they may be a little bit distorted just before kick-off when the team news is published.

      For example, a favourite ‘fairly’ priced at say, 1.5. Prior to kick-off, it may suddenly drop to 1.45 or 1.4 purely because of a higher demand by the punters. This happening doesn’t change the probability of that team winning – it’s just a reaction to the higher demand.

      But anyway, there are never any ‘massive’ odds changes and these changes don’t have a massive effect on the HO/AO quotient.

      Reply

  8. I need clarification on the following please. Apologies if this has been answered, only I looked first of course.

    Q1. If the game that qualified initially drops outside the quotient before KO, should I still back it?
    Q2. If the game didn’t qualify initially but dropped into the quotient range in the run up to KO.

    The way I view the above is;
    If the game was initially outside the quotient a d dropped into it (q.2) I would avoid as market has distorted the price due to bias.
    But I am confused with q.1….as it qualified originally, I perceive it as having more value now even though outside the quotient range before KO.

    Always appreciate your replies.

    Thank you,
    Mike

    Reply

    1. Hi Mike,

      I’ve got the rule in betting that if something is in doubt, then leave it. It’s always better not to risk anything than to lose money. Although this rule may disqualify a few games, as long as your groups are big enough, there will still be enough matches left to bet on.

      Otherwise, the HDAFU tables are based on odds well before KO. This means that if a game you identified as a qualifier for any of your systems suddenly moves out of the zone just prior to kick-off, then leave it in (Q1). If the game didn’t qualify initially but drops into the range just before kick-off, then don’t play it (Q2).

      The whole idea of the quotient is to allow bettors not to have to check odds movements prior to kick-off.

      Best wishes,
      Soccerwidow

      Reply

  9. So far so good. After 1 month and 150 matches, i am almost 20 stakes in profit. I use 14 whole season systems, but have 2 worries.

    Most of the systems I have selected are very profitable in the last 5 seasons, but have an extremely high number of matches – almost all of my systems are with 100-120 matches per season, the draws in Netherlands are nearly 170! Is that a problem?

    According to your article about portfolio building, we must try to achieve around 50% projected hitrate. However, the 14 systems with the best Yield that I have found (and I use), have a combined hitrate of just 39,8%. Is that going to lead to huge losing streaks and problems later on? Because I hope that if I manage to survive said streaks, in the end I will have a much higher yield rate than if I choose systems with 50% hitrate.

    Reply

    1. Hi Rado,

      20 stakes in profit sounds great. Well done!

      To your first question… The larger the group the lower the deviation. From that point, having large groups that is actually a very good thing! However what may become a problem is having enough funds available for betting if there are too many matches being played at the same time. Have you read this article: 2017-18 Winter League Report – Bank Management & Stake Size? By the way, any further questions of this kind are probably also better asked on that article than on the HO/AO Quotient article here.

      With a combined hit rate of as low as 39,8% you may experience very tough losing streaks. Be prepared for that and stick religiously to your staking plan: Sound Staking: Flat Stakes & Ratcheting

      Reply

      1. New update. 200 matches down, 1200 to go 😀 I finished this week in profit again. So far, 6 weeks with profit and only 1 with a loss!

        Everything is going according to plan, with 10 out of the 14 systems in profit. The only very bad system so far is Turkey Favourites, which is running on about 10 stakes loss. My hitrate is 38.1% on 39.8% projected, which is not bad. However, I hope I manage to accumulate enough bank before the inevitable nightmarish mega loss week comes.

        Reply

        1. Hi Rado, as explained in the article Judging the Risk of a Football Betting Portfolio keep judging the performance of the whole portfolio, not of the individual systems within, especially not with the low hit rates you have.

          An achieved hit rate of 38.1% on 39.8% projected is brilliant! Keep going. However, be prepared that you may have a few weeks of losses in a row, not just one. I will write this month another article on losing and winning streaks and also supply a simulation to go with it. But just be prepared, it may become tough at some stage. Therefore, keep sticking to a strict staking plan. Don’t experiment – ever!

          Should you at some stage need a break, here’s an article that you can afford to break during any campaign without having to worry: Starting or Pausing Your 1X2 Portfolio in the Middle of a Season

          Good luck! Keep us posted! 🙂

          Reply

  10. Thank you Soccerwidow

    Your response has put me at ease and given me a little more confidence. I will certainly keep you posted.

    The articles are great for reference too as is your response to all my queries.up

    Reply

  11. Thank so much for your prompt reply.

    Just to clarify, my Whole Portfolio Expected Hit Rate is 58%, but it’s the Yield I’m worried about, as it’s at 47.33%.

    I have reduced the cluster in Spain and have made it a little more efficient maintaining profit in 5/5 seasons running, using “better judgement” to prevail. I had applied this from the outset as I’m a believer of trends.

    I have divided into your suggested Risk Groups and are:
    2 Low Risk – 1 is 4/5 seasons in profit
    4 Medium – 1 is 4/5 seasons in profit
    5 High Risk

    The other 9 systems are 5/5 seasons in profit. The 2 systems that are not had their losing year in 13/14. The last 4 years in profit.

    I would have like lower risk in the portfolio, but I looked for a combination of High Hit Rate, Profit and a 5 year consistency. The Yield was almost a by-product!

    Therefore, though my Portfolio has an expected average Hit Rate of over 50% and the Expected Avge Yield is above 45%, I’m hoping that the trend may form a basis for optimism.

    I shall take your advice an monitor for a few weeks. This weekend being my first active for finding and logging,

    Thank you once again.

    Reply

    1. Hi Mike,

      Don’t worry too much about the high yield. You may have just been very lucky and spotted the most profitable systems. This very high yield also gives you a nice buffer if something doesn’t go exactly to expectations.

      Please keep us posted how you’re getting on. However, please remember that when you review the portfolio to judge the performance of the whole portfolio, not the individual systems within it. The individual members will play up randomly; you can only review and judge their performance after the season has finished (especially the high risk systems require a whole year/season to perform to expectations).

      For further monitoring, please use the article Judging the Risk of a Football Betting Portfolio

      I wish you success!

      Reply

  12. Hi Soccerwidow

    Thank you once again for you response.

    I have read your advised article on “50 is the magic number” again. It makes much more sense once the Table are purchased and the process of selecting and performing the task of selecting Leagues and Systems for the short-list.

    I have performed the “health check” (as I refer to it) of my Portfolio. I’m slightly concerned due to the high Yield, or perhaps it is skewed by 1 or 2 Leagues. I have the following details:

    Please note I have 11 Leagues with 640 Expected Games

    Expected Hit Rate: 52.25%
    Yield: 47%

    If I remove 1 League – Belgium, the following results occur. Belgium has only 13 Expected Games and a Yield of 71%.

    Expected Hit Rate: 52.2%
    Yield: 37%

    If I remove the largest Sample Size – Spain, 101 expected games and an expected Yield 13.81%

    Expected Hit Rate: 58%
    Expected Yield: 53%

    From what I see, I can conclude, based on your table, that I have formed a High Risk Portfolio, due to my Yield accounting for over 30%.

    I have 6 systems with over 50% Expected Hit Rate
    1 system @ 13, 2 @ 50, 3 @ 40-47 and 5 over 50 = 11 Systems.

    Therefore my problem seems to be the Yield as being too high. Do I ditch or look for other systems or do I stick by it and consider it as an anomaly and based on my expected Hit Rate, I should be OK? Otherwise, the only other thing I can take from your advice is that I am set for a very bumpy curve perhaps?

    Your articles are very well detailed, but as this is my first attempt, I’d like to take your opinion on it.

    Many thanks in advance and thank you once again.

    Reply

    1. Hi Mike,

      I wouldn’t remove Spain but may decide shorten the cluster a little; try to stick to the 58% expected hit rate (or lower it a little if not avoidable) but try to increase the expected yield to a region of 20%.

      Belgium, you need to look at the matches for the last 5 years that were played in that cluster and decide if it’s likely to be repeated (this is now ‘judgement’; formulas don’t apply anymore). If you think that it is reasonable to be achieved again then leave this system in.

      Check all your systems with yields higher than 30% individually and again, apply ‘best judgement’ if it’s likely to be achieved again. If you have doubts that it may have been just an anomaly then remove it from the portfolio or shorten the chosen cluster.

      We’ve got end of August. So, you don’t have to start betting with serious money straight away. Give yourself a few weeks time to pretend that you are playing.

      After you have settled for your portfolio use a starting bank of just a 100 units and play with tiny stakes. Choose your picks at the times that suit you and place the bets at random times. Monitor it! Give yourself at least two months for this exercise. If you are happy that everything goes to expectations then you can try more serious money. However, if it goes wrong then you will have lost time and maybe a hundred quits but not more.

      Here’s an article that shows that it doesn’t matter when you commence betting: Starting or Pausing Your 1X2 Portfolio in the Middle of a Season

      Hope that helps.

      Reply

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