Here’s the link to the new sales page: HDAFU Inflection Points Tables
As you may already know from our 2017 Summer League tables, you now receive three separate tables for each league purchased. (Except Australia, see below).
Why? Well, we had an idea in early 2016 and experimented with it. Read about that brainwave here.
Why should I buy them?
Because they are the most effective and successful method we know of building a lucrative portfolio of bets targeting the sweet spots in the odds range. Read about our successful Summer League campaign here and our successful Winter League campaign here.
How do I use them?
Full instructions plus a free HDAFU table download is available here.
You can mix Winter and Summer League tables in your order, and don’t forget to apply the discount codes for multiple purchases. (See green box immediately below).
Buy Your Tables Here!
PRICE(*): £35.00 GBP Per League
The following discounts apply for multiple purchases:
Buy 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 leagues = 20% Discount (coupon code: SW20)
Buy 10 leagues = 30% Discount (10 for the price of seven) (coupon code: SW30)
Buy 11 or more leagues = 35% Discount (coupon code: SW35)
Please contact us (sales[at]soccerwidow[dot]com) should you have any questions regarding checkout and payment. For further clarification about the HDAFU tables please use the comment function below.
Should any of the above codes not work for any reason (It’s Javascript and some browsers may prevent the lightbox opening) please use the basic version of the cart to purchase your HDAFU Simulation Tables
The tables for sale are in Excel .XLSX format. Should you require a different format,
please feel free to get in touch with us by email.
(*)Prices are net prices ex VAT (Value Added Tax).
EU VAT rates will be added on the checkout page according to your location if in Europe.
Customers from the United Kingdom currently are not charged any VAT
Read more: EU VAT Information
Help with the Checkout
Open the scroll down list and click a league to highlight it.
Click on the Add to Cart button to include the item in your shopping basket.
Click Continue Shopping to add more items to your cart.
When you are ready to checkout, add your discount code (coupon code) if applicable (see multiple purchase discounts below), and click on Update Cart to register your discount.
Enter your personal details before clicking Continue Checkout at the bottom of the window.
You will then be given a choice of paying with PayPal or your credit card (via Stripe).
Contact us if you wish to pay via Skrill, Neteller or bank transfer.
Upon payment, download links for the files you have purchased will be automatically sent to your email address.
What You Get for Your Money
Instead of the usual one HDAFU table per league, you now get three. (Except Australia A-League, which is a whole season analysis only due to its size and lack of any recognisable mid-season break. The price of this table is now reduced to £10.00 GBP).
The new style tables presented here are also optimised for easy filtering.
Our recommendation is for a set of systems in several leagues, enough to provide you with a portfolio of at least 500 bets in a season. You’ll then have a chance of emulating our 2016 campaign.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is there a time restriction on the usefulness of the HDAFU tables?
The tables simulate the profits and losses by betting type for the last five complete seasons if choosing the same bet type for every game of the season. Therefore, the ‘natural’ cut-off point is the end of the following season when the tables have to be re-calibrated.
Simulating the profit/losses when betting on the same outcome over the last five seasons, the tables show a picture of the likely (expected) distribution for the forthcoming season.
If the bettor chooses a distribution which is equally spread over the year (e.g. underdogs in the German Bundesliga with odds between 4.0 and 17.0), then it doesn’t really matter when the systematic betting starts.
The HDAFU tables are a great help at any time throughout the season to provide focus upon profitable areas within your chosen league and allow you to refine your final bet selections.
Further reading:
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Avoid Placing Bets at the Start of Season
What is the relationship between the HDAFU tables and the Value Bet Detector?
The HDAFU tables simulate profit/losses when betting systematically on one specific bet type, e.g. backing the home win, the draw, the away win, the favourite or the underdog. The Value Bet Detector is an odds and probability calculation tool for individual/particular matches of interest.
Both tools originate from the time Soccerwidow wrote match previews for Betfair and needed to identify games containing value bets for analysis. Here is a summary of those predictions.
The HDAFU tables were initially developed as a tool to recognise clusters of matches that were far more likely to contain value bets, and thus provide filtered sets of matches to preview.
We often receive questions such as, “Can the HDAFU tables and the Value Calculator support each other?” or, “What is the relevance of the HDAFU tables?” or, “Which methodology is better?”
Ultimately, both products are tools for odds calculation and understanding the betting market. The Value Bet detector is an analysis tool for individual matches; the HDAFU simulation tables is better for systematic betting in larger numbers.
Further reading:
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion
How do I structure a portfolio and what is the best size for it?
“A portfolio is a package of bets where extensive analysis has determined the choices (picks)… This is an essential part of the whole betting strategy in order to reduce the risks of losing by diversifying.”
Now focus on the main expressions: extensive analysis… determined choices… whole betting strategy… reduce risks… and lastly… diversifying.
Actually, there is nothing more to say. Just spend some quality thinking time on it.
It totally depends on personal preferences, on the availability of betting markets to you, on your risk awareness, your understanding of probabilities and statistics, and finally, using all of this combined knowledge to make your best personal judgement, never losing sight of the fact that the bottom line is making profits.
Further reading:
Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio
Are the HDAFU tables for both, back betting and lay betting?
Yes. Although the HDAFU tables directly simulate what happened from a backing perspective over the last five seasons, they are obviously reversible and provide a sound benchmark for formulating lay betting strategies.
Large positive figures and rising curves within the tables indicate promising back betting opportunities, whilst large negative falling curves point to potential lay strategies.
The HDAFU tables come with an odds toggle as well as an exchange commission toggle so that the user can adjust the base figures where necessary – This is of great importance to those wishing to accurately analyse lay strategies.
Don’t forget that betting exchange odds are often ‘higher’ than the highest bookmaker odds and, of course, have a built-in commission surcharge levied by the exchange platform. The effects of these variables can be gauged using the toggle functions within each HDAFU table.
Further reading:
1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
Why is concentrating on bet types more profitable than betting on teams?
The answer to this question is simple psychology, which often defeats the average punter.
There are millions of people who follow one or another team. They read all the news available, discuss form, players and managers, and everything else there is to think about when a match involving “their” team is coming up.
There are plenty of “must win” situations, and even if the odds seem a little short, bets are still placed on the team they support to win the game. Both reliance on luck and a lot of hope goes into each game.
Unfortunately, gut feelings are very often a false friend and team news also has no relevance to the ‘true odds’ of a game; little wonder that there are more losing punters than winners.
The HDAFU tables help the gambler to disconnect all emotions from betting. The figures show very plainly where to concentrate when compiling a betting system portfolio for profit.
Further reading:
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Half-time Results are more Predictable than Full-time
What do you recommend to read for better understanding of the HDAFU tables?
HDAFU Tables Knowledge Base
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
How to Compile a Winning Portfolio
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Odds Toggle Function
HDA Betting: Profit/Loss Simulation Tables
PRODUCT SUMMARY
- Format: Excel .XLSX (compatible with Excel 2007 and higher, LibreOffice, Google Sheets, OpenOffice, etc.)
- File Size: between 623 KB and 2.85 MB each
- Publisher: Hertis Services Ltd (former Soccerwidow Ltd); 5th revised edition
- Simulations within each Workbook: Home Win, Draw, Away Win, Favourite & Underdog, plus a breakdown of individual teams’ performance in each bet type from both a home and away perspective.
- Language: ENGLISH
By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.
After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).
PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer. Check here.
Customer Comment
The results of your 2016-17 campaign are fantastic. I’m going to go through your campaign in detail and learn what I can about how and why you put it together and then hopefully go some way toward achieving what you guys did in that season.
One other thing I wanted to say about what you offer at Soccerwidow….the material – free and paid for – is so valuable and really does teach people what they need to know in order to understand the betting market and what is profitable and what is not, the pitfalls and the best way forward.
I’m very much like you in that I don’t see the value in blindly following someone else picks, but when someone doesn’t know the betting market or how to go about it themselves, blind following is what a lot of people gravitate towards.
With your products they really do teach people and empower them to be able to make their own decisions and do things the right way. I feel I have learned a tremendous amount since I found your website and am very much looking forward to putting it into practice in this upcoming football season.
Great job on what you guys do at Soccerwidow!
Simon
Hi,
Last 6 weeks have been indeed bad, so we’re all in the same boat there.
In addition, I am struggling to find a “blanket” rule when it comes to treating the questionable bookies like Marathonbet for instance.
Take for instance the game that is about to end right now; Cracovia-Wisla Plock.
In the info on this site there are two rules that I can’t seem to reconcile with each other,
My low treshold is at 3.4 for Poland underdog. Can’t be too surprising really,
So, Odds of over 3.4 were obtainable with 3 bookies; Marathonbet, 1XBET and AsianOdds.
I have seen that AsianOdds should be discarded, right winger, helpful as ever, pointed this out.
So that leaves two bookies. However, it also has been stated that when in doubt, go with the market majority, and apart from the 3 bookies mentioned, all others were under the lowest inflection point, so the majority of the market would dictate I’d skip this game.
I skipped this bet going with this rule. I could however also have gone with the other option, as the Marathonbet odds were timestamped just before kickoff, which is also a valid indicator/approach according to other comments on this site.
I find myself doubting every time, but I think from now on I am going to go with valid timestamps (odds updated at most half an hour ago) for all bookies except AsianOdds and TempoBet. I guess the doubt right winger speaks about is when odds are updated longer than half an hour ago.
I have re-analyzed all my systems, and I am convinced of the validity of my analysis, which as such is no guarantee at all of course, but at least my decisions have been well informed.
However, using flat stakes, and starting from the beginning of the season, one third of the bank would have been lost right now. But there is a LOT of football still to be played.
Just a quick line or two on the Marathonbet/Tempobet/1xBet/AsianOdds issue.
Firstly, AsianOdds are a multi-bookmaker platform, which includes Pinnacle and a few other sharp Asian books. The odds here are always going to be in line with Pinnacle as AsianOdds can’t offer higher Pinnacle odds than Pinnacle do themselves.
If some of the other books on the AsianOdds platform are going to quote higher odds, then they will be marginally better than Pinnacle – no more than one or two ticks – rather than completely out of kilter.
For these reasons, you can safely ignore AsianOdds when making your bet placement decisions and rely on Pinnacle instead. The time stamps on Oddsportal for AsianOdds are also likely to be less accurate than they are for Pinnacle.
From all of the comments I have read, some people are including Marathonbet when making their decisions whilst others are avoiding them altogether. Personally speaking, if you are going to include Marathonbet, then it is always worth looking at their website for confirmation of where their odds are in relation to Oddsportal’s current reflection of those odds. Too often I have seen that the odds showing on Oddsportal are nowhere near available on Marathonbet’s site.
Using the majority view to form bet placement decisions is definitely the route to follow. If the majority says yes, you can still place the bet with Marathonbet even if their odds are higher than your upper inflection point. If the majority says no, then avoid placing with Marathonbet or any other outlier bookie.
This issue will be eradicated when the 2018 Summer League tables begin appearing for sale in October. The odds in all the leagues will have been individually checked and audited and will exclude all the outlier odds from Marathonbet, Tempobet, 1xBet and AsianOdds, whatever their time stamps. Hopefully this will resolve any confusion going forwards.
I will also be publishing an article in the next few days on the checks you can perform to ensure that your systems remain viable in relation to the odds you are achieving. It will feature a piece on the Odds Toggle function within the HDAFU Tables. I will run through how to calculate the odds toggle figure and inputting it into the tables to show a simulation of what effect the strength of the odds you are buying has on the historical simulation for your chosen systems. Of course, this will provide you with a like-for-like comparison on prices, but not on hit rate.
It has been an unusual start to the season in many leagues, but I am sure things will settle down. The chances of all leagues suffering anomolous seasons all at the same time are too small to worry about.
I urge people to think seriously about their money management and to advise using a stop-loss trigger when things are lean. Even taking a brief pause from placing the bets and paper testing instead until things begin to pick up again is not admitting defeat.
There may be many people running similar portfolios, but I can guarantee that no two portfolios will be exactly alike. I know from several campaigners that their systems are currently in healthy profits; others are profitable but perhaps not to the same extent. Therefore, it is maybe easy to seek consolation in numbers when things don’t go so well. I know all too well from my own experiences that doubts creep in and you become desperate for confirmation that you are doing the right thing.
The bottom line is that if you have a healthy balance of risk throughout your portfolio, can guarantee at least 500 bets during your campaign (the more, the better), and have a set plan about bet placement and complete control over your staking plan, the overall result should be positive.
Putting things into perspective, if a portfolio comprises ten systems, the straight chances of all ten systems having their worst performance for six seasons (the five seasons of historical results in the HDAFU table plus the current season) is 16.67% (one in six) to the power of 10 = 0.00000166%. This equates to one in 60.3 million.
Winning the UK National Lottery by pulling six numbers from 49 carries a straight one in 13,983,816 chance. You are more than four times likelier to win the lottery than seeing ten out of ten systems record their worst performance for six seasons.
Another example, if you ran only three systems and they all recorded their worst performance for six seasons, the chance would be 0.46324%, or one in 215.
I’m sorry for everyone who is suffering at the moment. Things will get better. The odds of total failure are too small to worry about. To those of you who are currently enjoying success, I am very happy for you. But as they say, you can’t please all of the people all of the time.