21 February 2025

13 thoughts on “2023-24 Winter League HDAFU & Over/Under Cluster Tables Calendar

  1. Elena/Rob

    Posting this here as it’s a calendar related questions. I’m interested in the take you guys may have on the coronavirus and the disruption it is having on the start of some of the summer leagues. China, of course, South Korea and now Japan are seeing it’s football games postponed indefinitely. We don’t know when the seasons will actually start, therefore do you think this will have any impact on the results distribution especially when considering 1st and 2nd half of season systems? Do you think this level of disruption should have any bearing on whether to pursue these particular leagues for betting purposes.

    I’m attempting a summer league portfolio, but am a little concerned that betting on those particular affected leagues may not be wise in the circumstances due to the delayed start dates and possibly condensed/congested season which would be unlike any in the previous 5.

    Your thoughts greatly appreciated.

    Simon.

    1. Hi Simon, nobody really knows how the virus will develop and if the world is truly facing a pandemic and what effect it will have on the economy and everything else.

      However, I, as a statistician, see it for the economy far less devastating than many panic reactions suggest. So far, 80% of the infected people don’t show any or only very mild symptoms; the majority of them don’t even notice that they have the virus. The really big problem with these unaffected people is that they are carriers of this deadly virus for around 14 days. That’s a real problem and very high risk as it’s causing a very easy spread of this virus and hence, the intense control measures that are currently being put in place all over the world. All countries are working very hard to reduce the spread of the virus.

      Of course, what must have an effect on the economy and businesses are the quarantines and lock-downs. However, how much and what exactly that is everybody’s guess. For example, in Italy, many A-League games have been recently played without a supporting crowd. However, I personally wouldn’t think that this should affect the game results, at least not as long all the players are still healthy, their managers and team around them as well as their families. But that is my opinion. Statistically, we will only know for sure next year.

      Nevertheless, what I would suggest doing is to pick systems and monitor them for a while without putting on real big money. It doesn’t do any harm to start betting with real money a little bit later. Anyway, the first 6 weeks of every season are always a little bit bumpy, with or without a Coronavirus.

      Good luck to you and everyone else who is reading this comment! Stay away from crowds for a while and try of not catching that virus! 🙂

  2. Hey guys,

    just before you spend money, consider this data is to the most extend freely available online. And further, before relying on this data read this https://twitter.com/12Xpert and the information provided on the 11.04.2019 about systems based on historical data.

    All the best.

    Peter

  3. I’m confused, the last match in Allsvenskan was played on the 27th of May, but you say it has no break during the World Cup, although the next match will be played on the 3rd of July. Japan J league also has a break since 20th of May, the next round will be played on the 18th of July.

    1. Hi Jo,

      Yes, the WC has interrupted a few schedules. From the Japan perspective, all of its analyses for the HDAFU tables split perfectly in half – the first 17 rounds followed by the next. The WC has created a ‘false’ break – what effect this is likely to be is anyone’s guess. But to be technically following the HDAFU tables’ model, I suggest using the half/half season break per the dates above.

      I have changed the dates for Sweden and thanks for making me think again on that one.

      1. Hi Right Winger,

        ok understood. According to this article 2nd half of Finish Veikkausliga started on the 30th of June (round 17) but there were some teams with just 15 matches played and these teams played against teams with 16 or even 17 matches played. How to maneuver this the next time?

  4. Hi,

    With the new format in the Ireland premier league this season, is the end of the 1st half of the season to be treated as the end of round 16 as stated in this article? Or would it be the end of round 18, which is exactly half of this season? Want to make sure I switch to the second half system at the right time.

    Thanks.

    1. Hi Simon,

      I will update the article over the weekend with the various Summer League dates now that most of them are known.

      You are right – end of Round 18 (19th May) signals the close of the first half of the season in Ireland.

      Second half of season systems in Ireland should begin with the round of matches commencing on 21st May.

      Thanks for taking the trouble to write.

  5. Hi, i read all your stuff but never posted.

    Im making something that looks at the “book” and finds pricing errors.

    I can not think of a logical way to price matches between “NEW” teams (ones that have just been promoted) and existing teams.

    It is very hard to get anything making much sense pricewise with so few games played in most of the leagues.

    Got any tips on how to deal with NEW teams in Imature leagues ? ANything you have ever wrote on this would be very helpfull – I cant find anything on this subject.

      1. Thanks for link – What I’m looking at is using history from newcomers LAST season, applying a sort of weighting to it and combining it back into current season. So although the HDA numbers + total goals etc are high for last season they get diluted yet give some credit. As the season progresses I dilute less and less until about 50% of way through season where NO old data is used…

  6. Hi Right Winger,

    will you update this article with the dates now that the schedules are out? Thanks, and keep up the good work!

    1. Hi Daniel,

      Your wish is my command!

      Everything duly updated – still a few gaps in the Winter League programme (Greece and a few end-of-season uncertainties), but this calendar article will continue to be amended as soon as dates become fixed…

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