Financial Analysis
The financial impact of the 23.33% failure rate is shown in the following tables:
2011-12 English Premier League Correct Score Roulette Results
Wow! Three teams you would normally expect to record at least one 2-0 home victory during the course of a season have all failed to do so. Who would have thought Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool would scupper the system?
A failure rate here of 37.5% (three failures out of eight).
2011-12 English Championship Correct Score Roulette Results
A failure rate here of only 14.29% (one failure out of seven) has still led to a loss.
The fact that each team in The Championship, League One and League Two all play 23 home games a season compared to 19 in the Premier League means that the exponential losses in the lower leagues from the staking plan continue far beyond the maximum loss experienced in the top-flight.
This was a very interesting and well written research piece – very useful because many of us mull over such systems without having the time or discipline (money isn’t necessary to do the research) to do it.
I suppose the real drawback is the period of the test since clearly West Ham, for example, will eventually win 2-0 but not in time to compensate for the losses in the season of the test. And who knows how long it could take? So perhaps the answer is to target more the sort of markets where particular teams/leaguesmight be favoured – eg red cards or corners, in order to reduce the time taken to recoup losses.
With that approach, the current prevalence on the Exchanges of bots which apply blanket rules to some markets might help but will require more digging by the investor to find the spots.
Thank you for making the effort!
GL
I have just seen this link after reading the first part.
In my previous post I mentioned that I may try this system. After examine how it stacks up….I will be leaving this alone.
Intersting article though with good analysis.