Cluster Table Screenshot - Betting Table Tab
Step 4 – Do the Maths!
It’s all downhill from now, honestly!
- Add the team’s percentages together and find the average by dividing by two:
West Ham Home Games 73.9% + Southampton Away Games 33.3% = 107.2%
- 107.2% divided by 2 = 53.6% = likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals in this match
- Calculate the ‘true’ or ‘zero’ odds: 1 / 53.6% = 1.866
- The zero odds for Over 2.5 Goals in this match are 1.866
- Compare the zero odds with the market price: if the price on offer for Over 2.5 Goals is above our zero odds value, this is a value back bet. If the price is below zero odds, you may wish to consider laying Over 2.5 Goals at a betting exchange.
In the case of West Ham vs. Southampton, the Over 2.5 Goals bet was as high as 2.27 moments before kick-off:
This price is suggestive of a back bet with strong value in our favour as the market price far outweighs the statistical probability of the outcome.
Comparing the returns from the zero odds and the market price, the amount of ‘mathematical advantage’ contained in this bet would be 46.65%. (Expected Return on Investment).
The second method of expressing value by looking at true odds in relation to the market odds gives a figure of 21.68%. (Relative Deviation of Implied Probabilities).
Go here for the basics of calculating value, and go here to learn exactly how to calculate odds, probabilities, and value in all its forms for profitable long-term betting.
In our example, both methods of expressing value produced healthy positive figures making Over 2.5 Goals a definite back bet candidate.
The bet would have been more suitable for ‘laying’ if both measures of value had returned healthy negative results.
Match Result
The game finished 3-0 to West Ham and our Over 2.5 Goals bet therefore produced a handsome return!
Conclusion
Upon opening the cluster table to check the Over 2.5 Goals bet for value, the whole calculation and decision-making process took less than two minutes.
The speed at which it is possible to check games and build a portfolio of value bets for the weekend is one huge advantage of the Cluster Tables.
The other huge advantage is that they actually work!
IMPORTANT NOTE
Always ensure you use the correct table when recording percentages. It is all too easy to confuse the home and away panels and also the over and under panels if you are analysing several games in a row. And remember to change the team name when looking for the away figures!
Try it Yourself
Take advantage of our discounted EPL Cluster Table (containing the five-season data set 2012-17), which remains valid for betting on the rest of the 2017-18 season. It’s an excellent way of becoming familiar with the Cluster Tables for a special introductory price of just £2:
IMPORTANT NOTE
Once the 2017-18 season is over, please don’t rely on this table for bets in following seasons. All tables have to be renewed at the end of each season to take into consideration a potentially different set of teams with five complete data sets, and to discard the oldest season’s figures and add the season just finished.
- Check out our accompanying articles exploring what happened when we applied the same techniques to an entire round of 2016-17 EPL matches here and a round of 2018 U.S.A. M.L.S. games here – this demonstrates what is possible in single leagues and if every bet is a ‘value’ bet, it naturally follows that the larger the portfolio of bets is, the faster the bank should grow.
- Buy your portfolio of supporting leagues here.
Final Words on the Timing of Calculations and/or Bet Placements
The Oddsportal image in Step 1 shows that West Ham’s price at Betsafe on 12th March at 20:53 (nineteen days before the game) was also 2.90.
The screenshot on the left (you’ve got it – just click on it to enlarge in a new tab!), shows Betsafe’s away odds throughout the ante post market and you will see that their price for Southampton at exactly the same time, 12th March – 20:53, was 2.70.
Had we performed the HO/AO quotient calculation almost three weeks before kick-off, the quotient would have been 2.90 divided by 2.70 = 1.0741 (rounded-up).
From the cluster ranges for each team mentioned earlier, you will see that this alternative quotient would have placed the match firmly inside exactly the same clusters, and it would not have mattered which bookmakers were chosen or when, or what the highest market odds for the home or away win were.
This pivotal relationship between home odds and away odds is hugely important as it allows us to choose a reliable benchmark for calculations
Approximately how many bets would you need to do before you would expect to see a positive ROI?
I have done 20 bets and I am – 3 points, I haven’t become emotional about it yet because I am using very low stakes on purpose.
I am only backing or laying o2.5 at odds about 1.5 to 2.5
I just want to know whats a reasonable expectation?
30 50 75 100 bets?
Hi Andrew,
you should normally see a positive ROI pretty straight away; of course, only if you have chosen bets with value and you don’t start with a losing streak straight away.
Have a look at my reports I did in real time in 2012 when I was writing match previews for Betfair Germany: Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012
Of course, nobody can predict with certainty how bumpy the ride is going to be and it depends a lot of the probabilities you are playing.
The rule of thumb is: The lower the probabilities the bumpier your ride, the more difficult on your nerves.
Today I backed o2.5 on st johnstone v aberdeen @ 2.4 I did calculate the zero odds to be 1.71 so it seemed like an extremely good value bet.
I calculated ho/ao as: 3.95/2.18 = 1.8119
However do you think I made some kind of error, I think I may have done seeing as there was such a large discrepancy in available odds and zero odds?
Hi Andy,
you probably didn’t make a mistake as there are occasional discrepancies like that in the market. However, finding a value bet, of course, doesn’t mean that each bet wins.
Hi
How many cluster tables do you have on offer right now/ you offer cluster tables for how many/which leagues and whats the price for each?
Hello Ti,
Please refer to our online store for all the information you need regarding the Over/Under ‘x’ Goals Cluster Tables to help you identify value bets from the full range of over/under 0.5 to 6.5 goals.
We offer 15 top flight ‘Winter Leagues’ and 10 ‘Summer Leagues’, which should be enough for a substantial portfolio of bets throughout the entire calendar year.
The league bundles you will find in the store offer the best value, but if you want to ‘mix and match’ you can also apply discount using the discount codes under the heading ‘Multiple Item Discounts’.
Also, don’t forget the HDAFU Tables! Again the same 25 leagues are offered with similar bundles and discount codes.
Happy shopping!
Hi Soccerwidow
A question if I may….I purchased the course back a few years ago, and as you see above, I backtested a few seasons and had positive results. But I got sidetracked with the HDAFU tables and never pursued over/under goal betting.
I feel like having a crack at over/under goal betting and have re-read the course book to refresh my memory on how the cluster tables work in practice and make sure I’m performing the calculations and selecting bets correctly. Most likely I will be purchasing some tables before the leagues resume for the next season.
I noticed one thing in the article that differs to the method taught in the course book, and was wondering if it matters or not.
In the course book, we obtain the HO/AO ratio and then look up that cluster for the one and away team and note down the percentages/zero odds for the different goal line bets for each team. Then we compare those odds to the bookmaker odds and where we see odds that are greater than our zero odds for both teams, we consider that to be a bet to explore further.
Example – O/U 2.5 Goals.
Team A (Home) – Over 2.5 goals, 60%, zero odds of 1.66
Team B (Away) – Over 2.5 goals, 55%, zero odds of 1.82
Say the odds for the over 2.5 bet at the bookmaker was 1.9, then we would be seeing higher odds at the bookmaker for both teams. The average of the 2 teams zero odds is 57.5, giving a final zero odds figure of 1.74. The odds on offer of 1.9 are higher than the zero odds, and for arguments sake lets say that it also is higher then the upper threshold of the fair odds range, so a value bet.
If we took the example in the article, we have one team with 73.9% for over 2.5 goals and the other team with 33.3% for over 2.5 goals i.e team has zero odds of 1.35 and 3 respectively. Individually only one team has zero odds lower than bookmaker odds of 2.27, but combined, the zero odds (1.8) are lower than odds offered by the bookmaker.
So I suppose my question is, when calculating bets, should we be safer looking for situations when both teams are displaying zero odds for a particular goal line (as in the course book) that are better than the bookmaker odds? Or in your opinion does it not matter if one team in isolation doesn’t show value, but combined they do?
In my mind, when both teams show zero odds better than the bookies odds, it appears both teams are pulling in the same direction, whereas in the situation where one team doesn’t show zero odds better then the books, it appears like they are a bit of a dead weight.
In your experiment you posted here, how were you performing the calculations?
Thanks in advance for your response.
Hi Simon,
many thanks for your questions and be assured that right now, I’m sitting on writing the final report for the Corona Experiment for the Over/Under picks including a video explaining how I did the picks as well as offering the monitoring spreadsheet for download.
Please give me a few days to finish writing and publishing that article as it will certainly give you the answers to your questions.
Hi Soccerwidow
Was wondering if the article may be coming soon?
Thanks
Hi Simon, the challenge is that I’d like to make one video (or even more than only one) to go with the final OU trial article but unfortunately, I’m not an expert in that. So, I find every time something else to do in the house but to work on that video. Sorry! However, please be assured that I’m working on it.
Hi, I have just noticed you use pinnacle odds to calculate the ho/ao quotient, I have been using betfair exchange odds.
Do you think it is a big enough mistake to make me fail?
Hi Andrew,
We use a mixture of Pinnacle, Oddsportal and BetBrain odds for all tables now – only one of these sources per table, but the sales information in the store will tell you upon which odds each product is based, plus the Notes tab in each product is the one which opens first – there you will find an Important Note regarding which odds to base your selections upon.
Does Betfair odds make a difference regarding selection? Of course, Betfair’s odds include a commission element, which may affect matches with quotients near the margins of each HO/AO quotient, but I wouldn’t have thought it was enough to push too many matches into different bands. You might find a 5-10% difference where matches you end up selecting based on Betfair’s odds would not have been selected using the source odds to check.
You’ll have to do a little back-testing to see if there is any huge swing, but if you are then using Betfair to place your selected bets, then the commission element will definitely eat away at your profits. You can find out by how much by entering toggle figures in the HDAFU Tables System Picker tab.
I hope this goes some way to answering your question and thanks again for contacting us.
The only problem is im banned from most bookmakers due to being successful with other systems, so I only have exchanges left. I think 2% should not be too bad with commission.
Hi
Running a mac. The spreadsheets do not import all the formulas and links on Numbers.
I am guessing I am not the first to ask this question – Any easy solutions?
Thanks
Chris M
Hi Chris, you are the first to ask. 🙂
Unfortunately, we don’t work with a mac but here’s what the Apple support centre says:
Import an Excel file:
Hope that helps.
Best wishes,
Soccerwidow
Hi
Thanks for the reply.
Quick solution – I bought office for mac.
Loved the course – didn’t realise how much I didn’t know! lol
Thanks and keep up the good work
Chris M