22 February 2025

11 thoughts on “Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained

    1. Sorry typing mistake in the course… The figure in the text has been taken from table 10 (page 12). Dortmund playing away O3.5 41.18%

      Well spotted! 🙂

      Please ask any further questions in the article which is related to the course. This here is the wrong article!

  1. Hi Soccerwidow,

    May I know from where can I get all the previous tables from different leagues? I mean the same example as page 4. Thank you

    1. Hi Kevin,

      the course is designed to teach how to develop odds calculation tables yourself. We have a DIY approach and our main goal is to empower people with the knowledge necessary to utilise raw data according to their individual needs.

      Therefore, please download (for free) any league data of your interest from football-data (link is provided in the course), and then create your own tables.

      P.S. Please ask further support questions regarding the course here: Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds

  2. Hi Soccerwidow,

    Apologies for my mistake!
    You may ignore the previous post!
    By the way, when is the best timing to achieve initial odds from betfair?

    Thank you

    1. Hi Kevin,

      glad you worked your previous question out yourself 🙂

      Regarding initial odds there is no straight forward answer as it really depends when they open a market. Sometimes this is a week before a match, sometimes just a few days.

      I think that the Betfair Community is for your question probably the better advisor.

  3. Hi Soccerwidow,

    I just bought ‘Betting on Over/Under’ from you. From table (at page 4) you mentioned 24 matches with 0 goals for Bundesliga table.
    Understand that there are only a total of 18 teams in the table.
    Which means there will only be 34 matches for the whole season.
    If there are 24 games with 0 goals. then what about the rest with 1 goal(45), 2 goals(76) all the way up to 7+ goals?
    Does that include 2.Bundesliga table and other tables as well?
    Kindly enlighten. Thank you.

    1. Hi Kevin,

      specialising on one bet type is clearly crucial. This is the only way for individuals to understand a particular market in great detail. However, even specialising takes a long time until all alleys have been explored.

      Regarding winning every day… assuming you find a sound and long-term profitable strategy… it is the size of your portfolio which matters to reduce on deviations.

  4. Hello,
    Once again congratulations on your great job with this site. I have a couple of questions to you. when you find value bets do you have a minimum value to accept it has value? Let me explain, i’m planning next season with my own selections and one item to me is that there has to be a minimum 10% value to take a bet. I know value is value but like this i think i may create a security margin that can be helpfull. what do you think about it? and another question is about staking plan, sometime ago you told me that you were studying some changes to your staking plan.Do you have any news about it? thank you.

    Best regards,
    Pedro

    1. Hi Pedro, thanks for your praise 🙂

      It all depends where you place your bets, and also on the probabilities of the bets. If you bet e.g. in Betfair you need to consider the 5% charge of your winnings, and if you are becoming too successful then you’ll be charged even more (Premium charge).

      Our rule of thumb is that the lower the probabilities the higher the value must be. 10 to 15% value is fine for us if the probabilities are high, but the lower the probabilities the more value we are looking for. But I would think it is different for everybody depending on their particular strategy.

      Regarding the staking plan, we have decided to stick to the fixed risk/fixed win when publishing results. Anything else will not allow comparisons with past results.

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