How to Make Systematic Betting Work
When putting together the profitable areas of the big five European leagues, it is possible to come up with a system that finishes every week with a positive result. This is much easier on the nerves than sitting on a single system waiting for it to return to profit. We can definitely say this from experience.
If you would like to give systematic betting a try, or wish to improve upon your existing strategies, consider buying our HDAFU simulation tables.
Foreground: Luis Louro (Shutterstock), Background: Elena Schaelike (Wisejam)However, please do not expect the HDAFU tables to display and describe ready-made betting systems. You have to decide what is right for you, and because every bettor has a different taste it is an impossible task for us to put a portfolio together which pleases everybody. Therefore, we just leave it to you to identify your own preferred systems (and there are several in each league we feature for sale).
You will find all of the screenshots from this article featured in our German Bundesliga HDAFU table. All the other leagues contain different figures (and findings), of course.
Each league simulation includes home wins, draws, away wins, betting on the favourite, the underdog, individual teams, and much, much more. Each simulation is mirrored so you can see the same bet type from the home or the away perspective. As mentioned, the half-time tables include a bonus analysis featuring the 0-0 correct score market.
1×2 System Betting – Betting on Home, Draw, Away
For those who are new to Soccerwidow’s website, but also for those who just like to reminisce…
In July 2011, I published my very first article on this topic: Home – Draw – Away: Systematic Betting, in which I introduced the concept of system betting.
Back then I recommended for the forthcoming 2011-12 season the following strategies:
➣ Back Fulham at home
➣ Back the Draw: Fulham away
➣ Back Manchester City at home
➣ Back Manchester United at home
➣ Back the Draw: Aston Villa at home
Whoever followed these tips (and some people did – just look at the comments section at the bottom of that article) achieved a yield of between 20-30%.
I had shown by predicting in advance that systematic betting is worthwhile considering.
At that time, we were focusing on the selection of individual teams. Perhaps we were lucky because now we follow specific bet types without favouring any team. No team will forever maintain the same statistical patterns as followers of Manchester United will attest to following the departure of their long-standing manager at the end of 2012-13.
The picks in July 2011 made good money during that season, but a similar system failed the following season. The portfolio of bets was far too small, and risk was not diversified enough.
Now, four years on, with a lot more experience, we have reached the comfortable position of appreciating the psychology and dynamics of the market and are happy to share this knowledge with our readers.
It took us years to realise and gather enough evidence that bookmakers correct their odds based on demand. Why and how much, we hope should now be clear after reading this article.
Another revelation was the observation that the distributions of results are more or less the same, year after year in ‘stable’ leagues (where the competition format and size of the league remains unaltered) – just read my article on Goal Distribution Comparison, for example (see link below). Regular distributions are apparent in everything from match results to over/under goals, etc. Distributions remain similar season after season, regardless of the teams relegated from or joining the league.
Now, in the 6th year of Soccerwidow.com, you can expect that when we revise our products all of our newly acquired knowledge and data is incorporated. The HDAFU tables started out just for fun and now they have become a sophisticated product exhibiting betting systems, some of which, we would never have dreamed about six years ago. Betting on numbers alone is far less time-consuming than gathering intelligence on each and every individual game.
S U M M A R Y
- Bookmakers adjust odds to public expectations, which means (as a rule of thumb)…
whilst the ‘prices’ for favourites are lowered to take advantage of the demand, on the opposite side, the odds for the underdogs rise. - Falling odds mean rising ‘prices’!
- The downfall of punters is usually their ignorance of the maths behind odds, plus a lack of understanding the dynamics of the bookmaker market.
- Although this article focuses on ‘Betting on Underdogs’, they are not the only interesting group. You can find an edge in most of the bet types.
If you liked this article you will probably also enjoy these
- Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
- Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points – Bet and Win
- Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
- Betting System Concepts For Successful Football Betting
Hi,
Thanks for the answer.
I read in one of your articles the it’s possilbe to manually download/export data from Oddsportal.
Well I copyed all the data for a league and inserted it in Excel, but I can’t subscribe the score cell.
For ex: in B1 is the score 1:1, but without suscribing it, you can’t know who was the winner for that match.
Do you know how is it possible to subscribe numbers in one cell?
There is no help in the search engine.
Thanks
Hi Sarkec,
You will have to tweak a little bit.
First, run a “replace” in the column with the scores to put a ‘ before each score. This converts the string into a text string.
Then use the Excel formulas =LEFT() and RIGHT() in two helper columns. This will return you the scores in different columns which you can then use to run an IF function to determine if it was a H-D-A.
Alternatively, just do it manually. It really depends how big your data set is and if fiddling around with Excel and trying to find a formula saves you time or if you are actually faster if you do it manually.
Good luck! 🙂
Hi Soccerwidow!
I have discovered some nice strategys for the summer leagues, but there are a lot and I don’t know what to choose from them to bet in the next season.
I have strategys where have been just <100 bets in 5 seasons and returned a nice profit, strategys that had more than 150 bets in 5 seasons and returned some nice profit and strategys where in 2013 or 2014 where breakeven, or even with minus, but the rest of the seasons it produced nice profits.
What should I choose from them?
Another question: I am using odds from Football-data site, and I don't know if thoose odds were at KO Time, or thoose are opening odds?
What odds should we use when we are betting with a system?
I would like to use the odds days before KO Time, bcs freetime in weekend the most important for me and I don't want to sit in the front of the computer to wait for every match to begin and make my bets..
Thank you!
Hi Sarkec, the odds you find on the Football-data site are from Friday evening for weekend games and Monday evening for week games. I personally prefer to carry out calculations using these odds as it frees weekend time and does not require to sit on the computer the whole weekend.
Unfortunately, the data from Football-data is slightly incorrect as they collect the odds automatically without manual corrections. That means that if a bookmaker had a special marketing activity the ‘highest’ odds may not reflect the true picture.
It therefore makes sense that after you identified a strategy that you make a simulation with Football-data odds and then pick randomly 10 matches from your selected data and check them manually. If they are all ok, then you can safely assume that your strategy will probably also work in practise. If you find only one error in the data, then check another 10 matches. If it stays with only this one error, then it’s fine and nothing to worry, otherwise I would drop the strategy as it’s probably based on wrong data and hence, on wrong assumptions.
but in value calculator page u say it need to use 6h2h for correction factor.
Hi zinphyo, this article about ‘Staking the Underdog’ has nothing to do with the Value Calculator. This article introduces the idea of systematic betting on 1×2 results using the HDAFU tables. The tables are simulations to recognise sweet spots (betting odds clusters) where bookmakers regularly overprice or underprice.
yes. i understand. but i mean in this example gladbach vs augburg when i look up their h2h before this match started u only use 4 h2h matches.
value calculator can use only for 6 h2h matches over 10 years. in this example u use only 4 h2h. is there will be missed calculation in the long run or can i use only 4 h2h ? thank.
6 H2H matches are already a very small number, 4 is insignificant. The H2H calculations are used as a correction factor. What this all means, mathematically, is explained in great length in the Fundamentals of Sports Betting course.
Hey, before the game starts, i see that the odds are changing a lot. What are the different reasons ? And how can you benefit from this mechanism? Thank you very much
Hi Franky,
The odds change all the time in response to customer supply and demand – click on this link to find our other articles How Do Bookmakers Tick? and How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion. These will give you some idea why the odds move in the ways they do.
How to take advantage of these movements? Well, we’d be seriously rich if we had a crystal ball and could tell in advance which way the odds were going to move. It is definitely possible to scalp the prices before kick off in an arbitrage fashion, but the profit margins are always going to be small and you need a big bank to begin with to show any worthwhile results – it’s very work intensive, believe me, and one un-covered bet can destroy the accumulated profits earned from dozens of previously successful ones! Try this on paper first until you are 100% confident that you know what you’re doing.
Hello again… So far I’ve made the decision to bet only on the 1X2 market. Over and Under are very unstable for me, and the yields are much much lower than what you can find in Draws or Away patterns.
The larger the cluster, more meaningful the result, although a simple statisticual rule, its not always true. I have used clusters from 2012-2013 2013-2014 that amount to 200 games per season (Spanish La Liga) to see it dip in the 2014-2015, even though their p-values were 1 in 10 000. Of course, it helps a lot to have a larger cluster, but in the end, if you take the time to analyse it you will see that within the cluster there is a pattern that brings solid results.
My suggestion is to watch out for the odds movement (Opening odds VS Closing odds), I’ve discovered that some clusters worked wonders everytime the betting public went for the favorite. Its like magic, there is an obvious relationship in some points, like a NO ODDS MOVEMENT, or PUBLIC BETTING LIKE YOU.
I also think that if you have a system that works in all five seasons and it can be somehow explained by logic (why the underdogs at 4.40 work and not on 3.40 for example) helps to gain confidence.
Since everyone can access this information, its only a matter of time before someone gets to it. Some clusters are statistical anomalies, some are real. This is why I rate teams and combine it with this technique, it helps to get to strategies most wont see thanks to my rating.
I have not tested this yet (I will in a few days), but I think that if we combine your Value Betting technique and see the inflection points it produces with Value propositions, we could get something more effective.
I made an excel file to test 4 banking methods and worst losing streaks, nothing fancy, but I think if you could develop similar but better product would be great.
Thanks again… Im looking forward to that course… And you are right Falconer, the French have a very stable Draw pattern, I have two angles that amount to 179 games combined, producing 87 units on 1 unit per game using closing odds at an average bookmaker.
Hello!
Nice and useful article again, thanks for that!
But unfortunately – as you wrote – this is not that simple!
There are many many profitable clusters in every betting category in every league from the 5 seasons’ set of data, but it’s not mean that these patterns will be profitable in the next season. Unfortunately not at all!
Some will be profitable, some won’t.
Just two example from the Bundesliga (from 2009/10-2013/14 results and highest odds set of data):
Backing draws where the draw odds between 3.55-3.68. These bets brought 10.7% yield. (of course single bets with flat stake). Apply that cluster to the 2014/2015 season: the result was a fantastic 46.3% yield.
Backing away underdog where the away odds between 6-12. These bets brought 31.9% yield, but in the 2014/15 season the cluster brought losses with -13.7 yield.
I studied the efficiency of the 5 seasons’ clusters in every betting category in the new (6.) season in some leagues, but the result was not univoque.
In the Bundesliga 2014/15 the all 9 category profitable pattern following was just 25%.
In some leagues it was 75-80%. BUT there are many 100% in one category and especially in one odds segment (H-D-A).
So according to my observations the solution is that we have to specialise in every leagues’ most profitable betting category, and find the principally typify clusters.
For example the French 2 leaguae with the draws, which is a very-very stable since many years.
Maybe there will be useful to write an article about the clusters lifetime, or practicing.
Regards,
Falconer
Thanks for your comment!
There will be (at some time in the far future) a whole course addressing HDA betting, actually, it will be two courses – one for odds calculation like the Over/Under course, and another one for systematic betting.
Keep making suggestions as it helps planning the course(s).
Loved the article… this is precisely the way I bet. Every year I refine the process with the basic premise of clustering and systematic betting.
I have been willing to ask you, in this example we have 462 games in 5 seasons. What do you think about smaller samples?
For example, if I have a cluster of 50 games, about 10 matches per season on average, but manages to make a profit in all seasons, finishing in 20 units for the whole 5 seasons betting 1 unit (1.4yield) on DRAWS, do you think this is meaningful?
By the way, in previous years HDAFU table I did not see any Inflection Points graph, what about this season file?
Thanks for the article, just in time.
Hi Rod, generally speaking – the larger a cluster the more meaningful. Simple statistical rule.
The inflection point graphs are a new addition to the HDA tables this season. There are 5 of them in the FT tables:
(1) by home odds
(2) by draw odds
(3) by away odds
(4) by favourite odds (home/away)
(5) by underdog odds (home/away)
The HT table contains a 6th inflection point graph for 0:0 HT Correct Score.
I’m working today on putting together a proper product description, and hopefully tomorrow it will be finished and ready for publishing.