Anyway Im always interested in football. As you know some leagues are starting their football. English and Spanish football will start next week. What are your thoughts on their decision to start the league again? What about the French and Dutch league (As we know, they decided to cancel the league) ? Will people who already put their bet at the very beginning of the season on who will win the league, get their money back from Betting Company?

Cheers and Stay safe.

Hi Soccerwidow,

I’ve been quietly pursuing my winter league portfolio this season. 1st half of the season went very well with a decent profit made. The 2nd half of the season started off poorly and by March the 1st half season profits were almost wiped out, and of course everything then stopped with the coronavirus pandemic. Since the restart, results seem erratic and my portfolio has dropped into an overall deficit very slightly – so I’m at a crossroads really – call it quits or press on and see what happens.

Now that football has started up again, it seems that the home win results are coming in at a really low percentage. Bundesliga for example is 27% home wins since the return from lockdown. I don’t know if this is just a random thing happening in the first few weeks back following an unexpected break. I get that players may not be 100% match fit right now, but then surely that would affect all teams and not just home teams. I truly wonder if playing without crowds is going to have a long term effect on home teams and their win percentage.

Reasons for home teams not to perform well without crowds could be the referee bias is diminished due to lack of pressure from the crowd i.e. the home team loses the 12th man. The home players are normally urged on by the fans, and that motivation won’t be there now. Normally home teams hate losing in front of home fans, and without fans there, again motivational edge and desire may be lost to a small but noticeable degree.

Away teams of course are used to having little support away from home, and so I can see the home teams in this unique situation being most affected and unsettled by this.

Incidentally, the 2nd half systems still in play for me, 6 are home win (some of which are underdog systems), 3 favourite, 1 away win, and 1 draw – the rest have been cancelled.

Doubt is now creeping in and making me wonder whether its wise to press on and continue wagering especially as my portfolio is home win system heavy.

I also prepared a summer league portfolio, and again, am wondering if I should press ahead given the circumstances and uncertainty surrounding the effect of games being played with no spectators. Referees behaving differently, and teams behaving differently is literally a game changer in my opinion

These of course are unprecedented times….any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

I would just like to say what a great website you have built here, it has helped me a lot with my betting, and I am now consistently turning a profit, so thank you Elena.

Hi, and thanks for your answer. I hope you also address the lack of data, as I was not merely talking about break, but about cancelling leagues altogether.

I don’t see any time in the calendar to make up for cancelled matched in the european competitions, especially with the European Championships around the corner.

Looking forward to your article!

Hi Alain, we will have to work with the data we can obtain. However, once the panic is over and life returned to normal, statistical patterns will also fall back to normality. Nothing to worry.

I am currently writing an article on the effect of the Tsunami on the Japanese league. The Japanese tsunami occurred on 11th March 2011, after the first round of games in the new J-League season. The league didn’t recommence until 23rd April that year, a break of seven weeks.

What effects this had on the statistics? You will find out soon.

Do you think that the lack of data looming around the corner (Switzerland and Italy already cancelling games) will have an effect on future HDAFU tables, or will you just work with the data that you can obtain?

Hi Sam, thanks for your comment. We almost didn’t publish this article as we weren’t sure at all if we can dare to look at this very sensitive topic from a purely statistical perspective.

If you wish to share the message, e.g. via social media, feel free to do so because my personal point of view is that with all these raise of panic around the world there is need to put a little bit calm to the storm.

Nevertheless, listen and follow all the precaution advice and stay safe too!

This question has been burning in my mind. While some might be sensitive to this issue, I found this article very informing and comforting, on and off the field.

Stay safe.