EPL: Liverpool v. Man. City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 25th August, 2012…

EPL 26.8.2012 – Liverpool v Man City

This week’s Opta fact-sheet states that “Liverpool have won just once in their last 7 Premier League games against Manchester City; of the remaining 6 meetings, 4 ended in a draw”. Of course, they could so easily have written, “Manchester City have won only 2 of their last 7 Premier League games against Liverpool, losing 1 and drawing 4”. It all seems a little biased as from 20 Premier League games in the last 10 years, Liverpool won 9 times (45%), 7 games ended drawn (35%), and Manchester City won only 4 times (20%). The two teams also met recently in the Carling Cup, which if you remember, ended 2-2 in the first leg followed by a tight Liverpool victory, 1-0.

Partly due to reputation and also to supply and demand, Manchester City’s odds to win this game are currently 2.48, which are almost 60% below value. They should be nearer 4.64 to win. They may well be English champions, but based on historical performances their chances of beating Liverpool at Anfield are only 21.5%.

Liverpool’s chance of beating Man City is almost twice as great at 46.3% but their odds are well over-priced at 3.2 – they should be closer to 2.16. Last week Liverpool lost 3-0 to West Brom, whilst City narrowly defeated newly promoted Southampton. These facts need to be arranged in context. This was not Liverpool’s first defeat against West Brom. The Baggies beat them at Anfield as recently as 22/04/2012, and in the season before, Liverpool succumbed 2-1 at the Hawthorns.

City didn’t really find their best form against Southampton and conceding 2 goals against a newly promoted team at home will have been a slight embarrassment for them. They will count themselves fortunate to have come away with 3 points from that fixture.

Which bets has Soccerwidow identified?

Salient statistics for the football betting predictions

Head-to-Head (Liverpool hosts, Man City visitors, 11 matches in all competitions since 3.5.2003):
Man City Clean Sheet: none (0%)
Half-time/Full-time Result: Draw/Draw (4 times = 36.4%); Draw/Home (2 times = 18.2%)
Full-time Result: Liverpool 6 wins (54.5%); 4 Draws (36.4%); Man City 1 win (9.1%)
Half-time Result: Liverpool 3 wins (27.3%); 7 Draws (63.6%); Man City 1 win (9.1%)
Both Teams Scoring: 7 times (63.6%)
Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 9 times (81.8%)

Liverpool’s last 25 Premier League home games since 12.2.2011:
Opposition Clean Sheet: 6 times (24%)
Half-time/Full-time Result: Draw/Draw (5 times = 20%); Draw/Home (2 times = 8%)
Full-time Result: Liverpool 10 wins (40%); 10 Draws (40%); 5 Defeats (20%)
Half-time Result: Liverpool 11 wins (44%); 9 Draws (36%); 5 Defeats (20%)
Both Teams Scoring: 14 times (56%)
Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 20 times (80%)

Man City’s last 25 Premier League away games since 12.2.2011:
Man City Clean Sheet: 8 times (32%)
Half-time/Full-time Result: Draw/Draw (3 times = 12%); Draw/Home (6 times = 24%)
Full-time Result: Man City 12 wins (48%); 4 Draws (16%); 9 Defeats (36%)
Half-time Result: Man City 9 wins (36%); 14 Draws (56%); 2 Defeats (8%)
Both Teams Scoring: 11 times (44%)
Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 18 times (72%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Man City are vastly under-priced for this game at 2.48, whereas the statistics imply they should be nearer 4.64 to beat Liverpool. Laying Man City therefore carries 87.2% ‘value’ in your favour, with a 78.5% chance of winning the bet.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Laying Man City at half-time provides a greater probability of success at 81.5%. The ‘value’ quotient in this case is 68.5% based on lay odds of 3.2. City to lead at the break should more accurately be priced around 5.39.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: There is a tiny bit of value (2.3%) backing both teams to score at a price of 1.8. The odds should be 1.76. Chances of succeeding with this wager are 56.8%.

  Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: Backing FT under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.36 gives ‘value’ of 7.3% based on ‘true’ odds of 1.27. This bet carries a 78.9% chance of success.

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 5: Back Man City Clean Sheet = “NO” (Odds: 1.38; ‘true’ odds: 1.16; Probability of winning the bet: 86%; Value: 135.5%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 6: “Dutch” Back Half-time/Full-time Results: Draw/Draw (Odds: 5.8); Draw/Home (Odds: 8.4) (with weighted stakes for equal risk/return). Combined odds: 3.43; ‘true’ odds: 2.33; Probability: 43%; Value: 47.6%.

Bet LOST