Euro 2012: France v England – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 10th June, 2012…

Lay Les Bleus:

We really don’t understand why France are overwhelming favourites for this match. England went a round further than France at the last World Cup and have a better record over the last 30 competitive games on neutral ground and abroad. England have won 17, drawn eight and lost only five of their last 30 World Cup and European Championship matches (qualifiers and finals) away from their own shores, whilst France’s equivalent record reads won 13, drawn 11, lost six.

Defence will play a vital role in this game with England having conceded less than a goal a game, 22 in 30 matches (average 0.73 per game), versus the tight back line of France which has leaked only 24 in 30 (average 0.8 per game). Up front, England have scored 47 times at an average of 1.57 per game, whilst France are more profligate with only 37 scored in their last 30 matches abroad at an average of 1.23.

France failed to find the net in eight of their last 30 competitive matches abroad, whilst England missed the score sheet only six times in their equivalent games. Both have kept 16 clean sheets. England have scored and kept a clean sheet in 13 out of 30; France in only 11.

The list goes on: England have won both halves of four matches; France achieved this three times. No team has beaten England in both halves, whilst France have suffered this fate twice. So, why are France favourites?

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

France’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 13.6.2006):

• Half-time Result = France wins: 8 (26.7%); Draws: 17 (56.7%); Defeats: 5 (16.6%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-W-D-W-D-L
• Full-time Scores: Losing 2-1 (1 = 3.3%); Winning 2-0 (3 = 10%); Winning 2-1 (1 = 3.3%)

France’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 13.6.2006):

• Half-time Result = France wins: 2 (16.7%); Draws: 8 (66.6%); Defeats: 2 (16.7%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-D-L-L-D-D
• Full-time Scores: Losing 2-1 (none); Winning 2-0 (1 = 8.3%); Winning 2-1 (none)

England’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 24.6.2004):

• Half-time Result = England wins: 15 (50%); Draws: 13 (43.3%); Defeats: 2 (6.6%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): W-W-W-W-W-L
• Full-time Scores: Winning 2-1 (1 = 3.3%); Losing 2-0 (1 = 3.3%); Losing 2-1 (1 = 3.3%)

England’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 24.6.2004):

• Half-time Result = England wins: 4 (40%); Draws: 5 (50%); Defeats: 1 (10%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): L-W-D-D-D-D
• Full-time Scores: Winning 2-1 (none); Losing 2-0 (none); Losing 2-1 (none)

Identified Value Bets:

There is value in backing the draw at full-time with the current price of 3.2 representing 23.4% value and a probability of 38.6%. The ‘zero’ or ‘true’ odds for backing the draw should be nearer 2.59.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 1: Backing an England clean sheet at 3.0 is good value (35%), with a 45% statistical chance of happening.

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 2: Backing Both teams to score: “No” is another good bet (11.7% value) where the current 1.79 price should be nearer 1.58. The chance of success is 63.5%.

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 3: Lay Half-time Result: France (Odds: 3.7; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 6.6; Value: 79.3%; Probability 84.8%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: “Dutch” Lay three full-time Correct Scores: France 1-2 England; France 2-0 England; France 2-1 England (with weighted stakes for equal risk/return from all selections), Combined lay odds: 4.49; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 11.19; Value 249.2%; Probability: 91.1%.

Bet WON

MATCH RESULT:
FT – France 1-1 England
HT – France 1-1 England


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

• Forward to next match analysis: 12th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Greece v Czech Republic
• Back to previous match analysis: 10th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Republic of Ireland v Croatia