Euro 2012: Germany v Greece – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 21st June, 2012…

Lahm & Schweini to the Slaughter:

This is the most one-sided of the quarter final matches: everyone thinks so, the bookmakers and betting exchanges believe so, and not many will put their neck on the chopping block for Greece in this game.

The Germans have lost only four of their last 30 competitive matches abroad (13.3%), and two of those were against Spain. Of the other 26 games, 23 were won (76.7%), and three drawn (10%). They have troubled the scorekeepers 62 times and have conceded just 22 (average goals per match: 2.8). Like a speeding juggernaut, they are coming into this fixture off the back of nine straight competitive wins on neutral soil/away from home. Phew!

Greece’s last 30 competitive games abroad comprise 14 wins (46.7%), seven draws (23.3%), and nine defeats (30%), with 32 goals scored and 25 conceded (average goals per match: 1.9). Despite this more sober record and the whole planet (except Greek fans of course!) expecting a crushing German win, Greece have not been rolled-over too often in the last seven years. In fact they’ve only lost four games by two clear goals, all by a 2-0 scoreline, and Friday’s match should be a lot closer than the ongoing autosuggestion.

The law of averages says that Germany will fail to win a match at some stage and the longer their run continues the more likely it is to end. It’s like car insurance: after so many claim free years in a row your premium paradoxically rises purely because insurers can see you defying the accident statistics. As they say in Germany, “Everything has an end: only the sausage has two”…

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Germany’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 15.11.2006):

• Half-time Result: Draw = 12 times (40%)
• Full-time Scores: 0-0 (1 = 3.3%); 2-2 (none); Winning 3-0 (1 = 3.3%); Winning 3-1 (2 = 6.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 2-1 (win); 2-1 (win); 1-0 (win); 3-1 (win); 3-1 (win); 2-1 (win)

Germany’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 15.11.2006):

• Half-time Result: Draw = 6 times (40%)
• Full-time Scores: 0-0 (none); 2-2 (none); Winning 3-0 (none); Winning 3-1 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 2-1 (win); 2-1 (win); 1-0 (win); 3-2 (win); 0-1 (loss); 4-0 (win)

Greece’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 19.6.2005):

• Half-time Result: Draw = 15 times (50%)
• Full-time Scores: 0-0 (2 = 6.7%); 2-2 (1 = 3.3%); Losing 3-0 (none); Losing 3-1 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 1-0 (win); 1-2 (loss); 1-1 (draw); 2-1 (win); 1-1 (draw); 1-0 (win)

Greece’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 19.6.2005):

• Half-time Result: Draw = 5 times (50%)
• Full-time Scores: 0-0 (1 = 10%); 2-2 (none); Losing 3-0 (none); Losing 3-1 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 1-0 (win); 1-2 (loss); 0-2 (loss); 2-1 (win); 0-2 (loss); 1-2 (loss)

Identified Value Bets:

This match is almost totally devoid of ‘value’ bets as we write. The favourites, Germany, are vastly under-priced in most markets due to their high statistical likelihoods and Greece are over-priced wherever their chances of success are low. This has been the toughest game of the tournament for us yet and we know that all you ‘value’ betting connoisseurs out there will understand our predicament.

• Value Betting Tip 1: Back Half-time Result: Draw (Odds: 2.66; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 2.22; Value 19.7%; Probability: 45%).

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 2: “Dutch” Lay Full-time Correct Scores: 0-0 Draw; 2-2 Draw; Germany 3-0 Greece; Germany 3-1 Greece (with weighted stakes for equal risk/return). Combined Lay Odds: 3.80; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 12.0; Value 315.7%; Probability: 91.7%.

Bet WON

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Germany 4-2 Greece
HT – Germany 1-0 Greece


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

• Forward to next match analysis: 23rd June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Spain v France
• Back to previous match analysis: 21st June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Czech Republic v Portugal