Euro 2012: Germany v Italy – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 27th June, 2012…

Polished Performance Required:

Italy aren’t a bad team, it’s just that they haven’t really had a ‘brilliant’ game all tournament but they do have a winning mentality, probably dating back to when they were all ‘Romans’. The Germans on the other hand are also a warrior race and know just as well as their opponents that it will be team work that wins this semi final. What is assured is that both teams will trade blows and try to dominate this game which has all the hallmarks of being the best of the competition to date. According to the stats, Germany are rightly flagged as favourites with their current odds floating around their ‘true’ price of 1.97, so absolutely no value in backing them until their price begins to rise.

Italy are more than 30% over-priced but statistically have just a 26.3% chance of winning the game, whilst the draw is the least likely outcome at 24.2% probability. Effectively, this means Italy have a 50.5% chance of avoiding defeat in normal time.

Amazingly, Germany won both halves in 10 (33.3%) of their last 30 competitive matches abroad although they kept a clean sheet in less than half: 14 (46.7%) of the 30 games. On neutral turf the latter figure drops to five (31.3%) clean sheets from 16, meaning their opponents scored in 11 (68.7%) of those games. Italy have allowed only six (20%) clean sheets against them in their equivalent last 30 competitive games abroad, meaning they scored in 24 (80%) of those fixtures. On neutral ground they scored in 10 (66.7%) of their last 15 games.

Italy have a great record against the Germans who have never beaten the Azzurri in seven European Championship or World Cup games from their first competition meeting in 1962. We said earlier in the tournament that the longer Germany’s winning streak continues (10 games in a row now) the greater are the chances of it ending; it is impossible for them to continue winning every game and at some stage they will fail.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Germany’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 24.3.2007):

• Full-time Result: Germany wins: 24 (80%); Draws 2 (6.7%); Defeats: 4 (13.3%)
• Last 6 Results (most recent first): W-W-W-W-W-W
• Both teams scoring: Yes = 13 times (43.3%)

Germany’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 24.3.2007):

• Full-time Result: Germany wins: 12 (75%); Draws 0 (0%); Defeats: 4 (25%)
• Last 6 Results (most recent first): W-W-W-W-W-L
• Both teams scoring: Yes = 8 times (50%)

Italy’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 9.7.2006):

• Full-time Result: Italy wins: 14 (46.7%); Draws 11 (36.7%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
• Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-W-D-D-D-W
• Both teams scoring: Yes = 17 times (56.7%)

Italy’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 9.7.2006):

• Full-time Result: Italy wins: 3 (20%); Draws 6 (40%); Defeats: 6 (40%)
• Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-W-D-D-L-D
• Both teams scoring: Yes = 8 times (53.3%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Back Draw No Bet: Italy (Odds: 3.45; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 2.77; Probability: 36.1%). Whilst the probability of success may put a few people off, Germany have not drawn a game on neutral ground in over five years (stretching back further than our statistical analysis); either they win or they lose.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Back Both Teams To Score: “Yes” (Odds: 2.14; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.97; Probability: 50.8%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: The price for backing the correct score 2-1 to Italy is as high as 19.5 as we write, and holds 120% value with a probability just below 11%. The 1-1 draw is not quite so attractive at 7.6, but the value is still positive at 24% and with almost a 16% chance of coming in. Dutch backing these two correct scores provides combined odds of 5.47, a combined value of 69%, and a 26.5% chance of winning.

Bet WON

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Germany 1-2 Italy
HT – Germany 0-2 Italy


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

• Forward to next match analysis: 1st July 2012 – Euro 2012 Final – Spain v Italy
• Back to previous match analysis: 27th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Portugal v Spain