Euro 2012: Italy v Croatia – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 13th June, 2012…

Italy Undeserved Favourites?

The stats say Croatia have won 60% of their last 30 competitive matches abroad scoring 50 times and conceding just 27. Italy’s record is 50% of their equivalent 30 games won, but with just 41 scored and 28 conceded.

Another telling stat is Italy’s matches played on neutral ground within their last 30: Only four won (28.6%), six drawn (42.9%) and four lost (28.6%). Croatia’s percentage record reads, won three (42.9%), drawn three (42.9%), and lost just one (14.3%).

The statistics indicate this match is closer than the odds suggest. However, as far as betting is concerned there is not a lot of value around.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Italy’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 26.6.2006):

• Half-time Result = Italy wins: 9 (30%); Draws: 13 (43.3%); Defeats: 8 (26.7%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-D-W-D-D-L
• Won “to nil”: 8 times (26.7%)

Italy’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 26.6.2006):

• Half-time Result = Italy wins: 2 (14.3%); Draws: 6 (42.9%); Defeats: 6 (42.9%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-L-D-L-L-L
• Won “to nil”: 3 times (21.4%)

Croatia’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 8.9.2004):

• Half-time Result = Croatia wins: 15 (50%); Draws: 12 (40%); Defeats: 3 (10%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): W-W-D-W-D-W
• Won “to nil”: 8 times (26.7%)

Croatia’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 8.9.2004):

• Half-time Result = Croatia wins: 2 (28.6%); Draws: 4 (57.1%); Defeats: 1 (14.3%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): W-D-D-W-D-D
• Won “to nil”: once (14.3%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Lay Half-time Result: Italy (Odds: 3.35; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 5.83; Value: 74.1%; Probability 82.9%).

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 2: Lay Italy win to nil = “Yes” (Odds: 3.8; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 5.28; Value 39%; Probability: 81.1%). Backing “Italy win to nil = No” at a price of 1.36 brings exactly the same outcome.

Bet WON

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Italy 1-1 Croatia
HT – Italy 1-0 Croatia


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

• Forward to next match analysis: 15th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Ukraine v France
• Back to previous match analysis: 12th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Greece v Czech Republic