Euro 2012: Italy v Republic of Ireland – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 16th June, 2012…

Emerald Isle Playing for Pride?

In the finals of every European Championship and World Cup that Ireland have ever qualified for they have never been sent home without at least gaining one draw in their group matches. In other words, they have never lost every group game they have played in major tournament finals.

Italy on the other hand have flattered to deceive so far and their inability to put Croatia to the sword when leading means they are now forced into a corner where they must beat Ireland and hope that Spain and Croatia don’t play out the talked about 2-2 draw that would see both of those sides through.

To be honest there are similarities between the Irish and Italian teams with stalwarts such as Keane, Given, Pirlo and Di Natale probably playing in their last tournament and in general both teams seem to be in transition with neither playing the type of inspirational football likely to trouble the trophy engravers for some time to come.

As mentioned in our previous articles, Ireland’s recent record contains a proliferation of drawn games with 13 (43.3%) of their last 30 competitive matches abroad finishing in deadlock. Italy have ended level in 11 (36.7%) of their equivalent 30 matches abroad. Looking at this detail from a tournament perspective, Ireland have drawn one match from four neutral soil games (25%) within their last 30 games abroad, whilst Italy have drawn 50% (seven) of their last 14 equivalent matches.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Italy’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 30.6.2006):

• Full-time Result = Italy wins: 14 (46.7%); Draws: 11 (36.7%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): D-D-D-W-W-D
• Half-time Result = Italy wins: 10 (33.3%); Draws: 12 (40%); Defeats: 8 (26.7%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): W-D-D-W-D-D

Italy’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 30.6.2006):

• Full-time Result = Italy wins: 3 (21.4%); Draws: 7 (50%); Defeats: 4 (28.6%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): D-D-L-D-D-L
• Half-time Result = Italy wins: 3 (21.4%); Draws: 5 (35.7%); Defeats: 6 (42.9%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): W-D-L-D-L-L

Ireland’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 11.6.2002):

• Full-time Result = Ireland wins: 10 (33.3%); Draws: 13 (43.3%); Defeats: 7 (23.3%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): L-L-W-W-D-W
• Half-time Result = Ireland wins: 8 (26.7%); Draws: 15 (50%); Defeats: 7 (23.3%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): L-L-W-W-D-W

Ireland’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 11.6.2002):

• Full-time Result = Ireland wins: 1 (25%); Draws: 1 (25%); Defeats: 2 (50%)
• Last 4 Full-time Results (most recent first): L-L-D-W
• Half-time Result = Ireland wins: 1 (25%); Draws: 0 (0%); Defeats: 3 (75%)
• Last 4 Half-time Results (most recent first): L-L-L-W

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: There is some value (17.6%) backing both teams to score at odds of 2.2, and the calculated success probability for this event is 53.5%.

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 2: Backing FT under 3.5 goals provides a smaller value percentage at 9.4%, and at odds of 1.48, the chances of winning the bet according to our spreadsheets are 73.9%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Backing under 1.5 goals in the first half provides value of 10.6% and a 68.3% chance of winning at odds of 1.62 (zero or true odds 1.46).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: Back Full-time Result: Draw (Odds: 5.8; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 2.58; Value: 124.8%; Probability 38.8%).

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 5: Back Half-time Result: Ireland (Odds: 11.0; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 3.3; Value 233.3%; Probability: 30.3%).

Bet LOST

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Italy 2-0 Republic of Ireland
HT – Italy 1-0 Republic of Ireland


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.
• Forward to next match analysis: 19th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Ukraine v England
• Back to previous match analysis: 16th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Greece v Russia