Euro 2012: Russia v Czech Republic – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 7th June, 2012…

Čech Dis-Putin Russian Shooting

Opening games in international tournaments always tend to be cagey affairs with ‘avoiding defeat’ usually at the top of the priority list for the managers. Group A is arguably the weakest of the four groups and it is quite possible that Russia and the Czech Republic can both qualify for the quarter-finals whatever the outcome of this match.

Soccerwidow has used a mixture of each team’s last 30 away matches / neutral venue games to provide a realistic statistical base for predictions in this tournament, records which, for most teams we are analysing, stretch back at least eight years.

Of course, predictions for national team games are far more difficult to analyse than club games purely because of the lack of squad continuity and fewer games at international level, but the bookmakers and betting exchanges also have this problem when setting their odds, which is why we are all out on a limb during Euro 2012.

Russia have kept an impressive 11 clean sheets in their last 30 competitive away games, but the Czech Republic can boast 14 shut-outs in the same number of matches since 1st July 2004. The Czechs have also outscored their opponents by a ratio of 2:1 having scored 48 and conceded only 24. Russia’s goalscoring record is closer to the expectations of an away team but they have still chalked up 38 goals to 33 against.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Russia’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 16.6.2004):

• Full-time Result = Russia wins: 14 (46.7%); Draws: 7 (23.3%); Defeats: 9 (30%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-D-W-W-W-L
• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 21 (70%)

Russia’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 16.6.2004):

• Full-time Result = Russia wins: 2 (33.3%); Draws: 1 (16.7%); Defeats: 3 (50%)
• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 4 (66.7%)

Czech Republic’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 1.7.2004):

• Full-time Result = Czech Republic wins: 15 (50%); Draws: 7 (23.3%); Defeats: 8 (26.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): L-W-D-L-W-D
• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 22 (73.3%)

Czech Republic’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 1.7.2004):

• Full-time Result = Czech Republic wins: 1 (16.7%); Draws: 1 (16.7%); Defeats: 4 (66.7%)
• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 4 (66.7%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: From the statistics, Russia is rightly trading as the favourite with a 53.3% chance of winning the game; the Czechs’ probability of victory is only 43.3%. Backing Russia at 2.26 carries 20.5% value.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: In fact there is ‘value’ in backing either team to win. The Czech Republic’s price of 3.8 provides 64.7% value. Dutch backing both teams to win with weighted stakes for equal return is therefore another option.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Laying the draw at full-time is also attractive: the 3.3 back price should actually be closer to 4.29, providing lay value of 29.9%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: Back Full-time Over 1.5 Goals (Odds: 1.6; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.36; Value 61.7%; Probability: 78.3%).

Bet WON

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Russia 4-1 Czech Republic
HT – Russia 2-0 Czech Republic


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

• Forward to next match analysis: 10th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Republic of Ireland v Croatia
• Back to previous match analysis: 19th May 2012 – UCL Final – Bayern Munich v Chelsea