Euro 2012: Sweden v England – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 14th June, 2012…

Sweden Reach the Crossroads First:

Game two and already Sweden know that if they lose to England they are effectively out of the tournament. Even a draw adds further pressure as their historical record against France is worse than against either of the other teams in the group.

England will employ exactly the same tactics which earned the creditable draw against France. The team is built on a strong defence, two lines of four defenders quickly forming whenever they lose possession, and this in turn sucks in their opponents leading to chances of quick, breakaway goals as soon as they regain possession.

England and Sweden have met 21 times before with six wins apiece and nine draws, 25 Sweden goals and 30 from England (average 2.43 goals per game). Despite the overall head-to-head record, from their respective last 30 matches abroad not many goals should be expected in this game with England averaging 2.3 goals per match (dropping to 1.8 on neutral ground), and Sweden showing an average of 2.57 per game (dropping to 2.0 on neutral soil).

In their last 30 competitive matches abroad, neither team has a proliferation of draws: Sweden six (20%), England eight (26.7%). However, the matches each has played on neutral soil within these 30 games double these percentages: Sweden have drawn four of their last nine (44.4%), whilst England have shared the spoils in five from their last 10 (50%). Perhaps this indicates a more cautious approach to tournament play as opposed to qualification matches?

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Sweden’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 22.6.2004):

• Half-time Result: Sweden – 8 times (26.7%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-W-D-L-W-L
• Both teams scoring: 12 times (40%)

Sweden’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive matches abroad in all competitions (since 22.6.2004):

• Half-time Result: Sweden – none (0%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): L-D-D-L-L-D
• Both teams scoring: 3 times (33.3%)

England’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 4.9.2004):

• Half-time Result: England – 14 times (46.7%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-W-W-W-W-L
• Both teams scoring: 11 times (36.7%)

England’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive matches abroad in all competitions (since 4.9.2004):

• Half-time Result: Sweden – 3 times (30%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-L-W-D-D-D
• Both teams scoring: 4 times (40%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: “Dutch” lay involving 3 full-time correct scores: England winning 2-1 or 3-1, and Sweden winning 2-1. Combined lay odds are currently 5.03 versus the ‘true’ lay odds of 8.37, making the value here 166.5%, and an 88.1% chance of success.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Lay Half-time Result: Sweden (Odds: 5.0; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 9.23; Value: 92.3%; Probability 89.2%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Back Both Teams to Score: “No” (Odds: 1.94; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.60; Value 23.8%; Probability: 62.5%).

Bet LOST

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Sweden 2-3 England
HT – Sweden 0-1 England


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

• Forward to next match analysis: 16th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Greece v Russia
• Back to previous match analysis: 15th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Ukraine v France