Euro 2012: Sweden v France – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 18th June, 2012…

Swedish Pride at Stake:

The last seven competitive matches Sweden have played abroad have seen a minimum of three goals per game with four containing five goals, and the other three matches with three goals apiece (average 3.71 per game). Their last seven competitive games on neutral soil have witnessed a total of 19 goals (average 2.71 per game).

France’s recent record is much tighter with a total of only 13 in their last seven competitive games abroad (average 1.86 per match), and 13 in their last seven equivalent games on neutral ground.

In their last 30 competitive matches abroad, France have kept 16 clean sheets (53.3%), and have scored whilst shutting-out their opponents on 12 occasions (40%). Sweden’s comparative record is 13 clean sheets (43.3%), whilst ‘winning to nil’ nine times (30%).

Sweden have nothing to play for other than pride and as a result we feel they will go into this match a little more relaxed. They are a tall, physical side and France will offer a similar proposition to the smaller, more deft players of England.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Sweden’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 26.6.2004):

• Full-time Sweden wins: 14 (46.7%); Draws: 5 (16.7%); Defeats: 11 (36.7%)
• Full-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): L-L-W-W-L-W
• Half-time Sweden wins: 8 (26.7%); Draws: 15 (50%); Defeats: 7 (23.3%)
• Half-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): L-D-W-D-L-W
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 23 times (76.7%)

Sweden’s competitive matches on neutral soil within their last 30 abroad in all competitions (since 26.6.2004):

• Full-time Sweden wins: 2 (22.2%); Draws: 3 (33.3%); Defeats: 4 (44.4%)
• Full-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): L-L-L-W-L-D
• Half-time Sweden wins: 0 (0%); Draws: 5 (55.6%); Defeats: 4 (44.4%)
• Half-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): L-L-D-D-L-L
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 7 times (77.8%)

France’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 23.6.2006):

• Full-time France wins: 14 (46.7%); Draws: 10 (33.3%); Defeats: 6 (20%)
• Full-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): W-D-D-W-D-W
• Half-time France wins: 7 (23.3%); Draws: 18 (60%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
• Half-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-D-D-W-D-W
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 24 times (80%)

France’s competitive matches on neutral soil within their last 30 abroad in all competitions (since 23.6.2006):

• Full-time France wins: 4 (36.4%); Draws: 4 (36.4%); Defeats: 3 (27.3%)
• Full-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-L-D-L-L-D
• Half-time France wins: 1 (9.1%); Draws: 8 (72.7%); Defeats: 2 (18.2%)
• Half-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-D-D-L-L-D
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 9 times (81.8%)

Identified Value Bets:

There is a fair bit of ‘value’ around in this game:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Backing both teams to score = “No” gives 33.2% value at a market price of 2.1, combined with a probability of success at 63.4%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Laying France at half-time is also good value at 66.3% based on the current lay price of 2.4. The chance of this bet coming in is 74.9%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Lay Full-time Result: France (Odds: 1.66; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 2.44; Value: 50.4%; Probability 59%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: Back Half-time Result: Draw (Odds: 2.5; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.68; Value: 39.4%; Probability 59.6%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 5: Back Full-time Under 3.5 Goals (Odds: 1.4; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.26; Value 11.5%; Probability: 79.1%).

Bet WON

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Sweden 2-0 France
HT – Sweden 0-0 France


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

• Forward to next match analysis: 21st June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Czech Republic v Portugal
• Back to previous match analysis: 19th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Ukraine v England