(2) The Exotic Approach: Asian Handicap +0.5
Often overlooked because it seems too complicated, a good alternative to laying a team in a match is to give their opponents a goal advantage of +0.5.
In effect, this means:
- Any victory by the advantaged team – The handicap bet wins anyway
- Any draw – The advantaged team is still 0.5 goals ahead and the handicap bet still wins
- Any defeat – The handicap bet is lost
The net effect, so far as the result of the bet is concerned, is exactly the same as the lay bet situation.
Here are the Asian Handicap odds for our example match showing Hamburg’s price with what is effectively a half goal head-start:
Hamburg +0.5 Around 5 Hours Before Kick-off: Best Price = Pinnacle at 2.24 (Oddschecker)
In order to win 10 units at a price of 2.24, the risk is only 8.06 units.
If you remember the straight forward lay bet on M’gladbach from method 1, to win 10 units the risk was 8.73 units at a lay price of 1.83.
In this example, the bookmaker offers the same outcome at a much better price than the exchange: 8.73 divided by 8.06 = 1.083.
Therefore, instead of laying M’gladbach on Betfair, backing the Asian Handicap option ‘Hamburg +0.5’ with Pinnacle, requires 8.3% less risk to win the same money and represents significantly better value.
(3) The Belt & Braces Approach: Double Chance
This is a more obvious choice but more often than not, Double Chance prices seem lower than the Asian Handicap +0.5 market.
However, we do recommend you check the prices for this option as it can sometimes be quite rewarding, especially on less popular games. For example, lower league English football matches, where there may be liquidity issues with a betting exchange, are often better value with certain bookmakers in the Double Chance arena and with larger stakes automatically available.
In our M’gladbach v Hamburg example, the bet we need is Double Chance X2 (Draw/Hamburg):
Draw/Hamburg Double Chance Around 5 Hours Before Kick-off: Best Price = 32Red at 2.13 (Oddschecker)
Red32’s Double Chance back price of 2.13 is just slightly lower than Betfair’s reverse engineered back price of 2.145.
On this occasion, the Double Chance bet is not the right option.
hi soccerwidow,
gladbach actual winning the game is 51%.
so, the losing the game is 49%.
for 1.
in 100 bets , there will be 51games win and 49games lose probability.
i) if laying gladbach in exchange after 100 bets to win 10units the profit will 510units.
loss will be 427.77units. (8.73*49)
total profit be 82.23
(ii) backing hamburg in asian handicap the profit be same 510 but the lost reduce 394.94.
the overall profit will be 115.06.
2.if in 25 even distribution . the win in each distribution be 13 and lost be 12.
profit 25.24units in 25 lay bets with exchange.
profit 33.28units in 25 handicap match.
profit 31.96units in double chance match.
profit 32.8units in ‘dutch’ back match.
if i wrong , please enlighten me. please .
Second request to my message above.
Thank you.
Great stuff here. Are there answers to the questions posed on page 4 of this article?
Please advise. Thank you.
Warmly,
Brian
Hi, very interesting article with some good advice. But it doesn’t look like you’ve considered your approach to staking & risk when you are betting on multiple lines, or betting and laying simultaneously in the same market, especially in a single Betfair market. For my paper on this topic, please see rankingsoftware.com/research.html.