(4) The Flegenheimer Method: “Dutch” Backing with Different Bookmakers
Essentially, this is two single bets and for our example, they are backing the draw with one bookmaker and backing Hamburg to win the match with another, with stakes weighted to ensure an equal risk and return:
Best Draw Price 3.99 with 5Dimes; Hamburg to Win Best Price 4.93 with Pinnacle (Oddsportal)
In order to find the combined odds for this pair of bets, use the following formula:
1 divided by ((1 divided by 3.99) plus (1 divided by 4.93)) = 2.20
Summary
The four options explored produced the following results:
- Betfair lay equivalent back price of 2.145 for the straight lay bet of 1.83
- Pinnacle odds of 2.24 for the Asian Handicap +0.5 bet
- Odds of 2.13 from 32Red for the Double Chance option
- Combined odds courtesy of 5Dimes and Pinnacle at 2.20 for the Dutch back bets
For this match, the most financially advantageous option was to back Hamburg with +0.5 goals advantage on Pinnacle’s Asian Handicap market.
The match finished in a 2-2 draw.
Enlightenment?
To be a successful bettor, not only is it important to have a good strategy and harbour a huge store of discipline, it is also necessary to follow through a well thought out plan of action. The greatest secret of long-term success is achieving a level of enduring mathematical advantage.
Even ‘professional’ bettors who survive and profit from football betting rarely earn a yield of more than 10%.
In our example, we have shown that a straight lay bet on Mgladbach contains an 8.3% higher risk (stake) than the equivalent Asian Handicap +0.5 bet. With each lost lay bet of this nature 8.3% more money is lost, thereby reducing yield.
To put a long story sideways, if bets are chosen which offer odds below the best value available then ‘value’ will only be lost in the long run. It is the equivalent of being paid £12.00 per hour in your job but only deciding to claim £8.00. Betting is not a situation where occasional profit maximization applies.
It is not enough to go through the process of finding appropriate value bets (perhaps long-winded in some cases) only to be lazy when it comes to settling for the final investment opportunity. With a little bit of effort, you can assure yourself that the hard work finding these bets in the first place will be rewarded as highly as the industry allows. Believe us, if the industry can take something from you, it will. It’s up to you to have the same attitude.
Now, let’s see how much of this article you have absorbed as we present a few exercises to test your competency and allow you to practice in safety before you commit any of your hard-earned money to a concept you don’t fully understand…
hi soccerwidow,
gladbach actual winning the game is 51%.
so, the losing the game is 49%.
for 1.
in 100 bets , there will be 51games win and 49games lose probability.
i) if laying gladbach in exchange after 100 bets to win 10units the profit will 510units.
loss will be 427.77units. (8.73*49)
total profit be 82.23
(ii) backing hamburg in asian handicap the profit be same 510 but the lost reduce 394.94.
the overall profit will be 115.06.
2.if in 25 even distribution . the win in each distribution be 13 and lost be 12.
profit 25.24units in 25 lay bets with exchange.
profit 33.28units in 25 handicap match.
profit 31.96units in double chance match.
profit 32.8units in ‘dutch’ back match.
if i wrong , please enlighten me. please .
Second request to my message above.
Thank you.
Great stuff here. Are there answers to the questions posed on page 4 of this article?
Please advise. Thank you.
Warmly,
Brian
Hi, very interesting article with some good advice. But it doesn’t look like you’ve considered your approach to staking & risk when you are betting on multiple lines, or betting and laying simultaneously in the same market, especially in a single Betfair market. For my paper on this topic, please see rankingsoftware.com/research.html.