Right Winger,

Thank you!

You can find value in any size of odds – it is not just limited to the longer underdog (or draw) odds. But beware, perennial betting on favourites is a sure fire way to long term bankruptcy.

The Value & Probability Calculator is certainly a good start for a beginner. It will enable you to analyse individual matches and find value in a large range of bet types.

Yes, it is a valid method for calculating probabilities, which you must do in order to find value.

The HDAFU Tables are also a sound method of betting unemotionally, without needing to know anything about the matches in question. It’s all based on maths and numbers.

The strongest advice we give to beginners is to master things on paper before committing money on a single bet. If you feel you want to rush in and start betting straight away, then you are not mentally ready to make money in the long run.

Consider also our Odds Calculation Course, which will teach you how to read and understand statistics, and use them for future forecasting. It’s an unique insight into how bookmakers set odds, and if you want to play them at their own game, you will need to know how they operate.

Good luck!

Firstly, I’m really impressed by your site and your diligent replies.

I’m wondering is it at all common to find overpriced short odds in the 1 x 2 market? Or is it only common for there to be ‘value’ with long odds?

I’m a beginner. But I want to start placing bets, the thing is I’m a bit scared by the prospect of betting with emotion or looking for upsets and then getting addicted to it. So I’m thinking of using a maths-based system and a more conservative low odds strategy with risk spread across heaps of such, single bets.

May I also ask, is your value calculator similar to the type that betting agencies use to calculate their estimations of probability (before adjusting their odds for the reasons you outlined)?

Hi sarkec, if you are referring to in-play betting then this question doesn’t have a simple answer because it really depends in which direction the odds are expected to move.

However, if you are into fixed odds betting, and say you have calculated a ‘fair odds’ range between 1.18 and 1.22, and find odds for Bayern Munich of 1.2, then either lay Bayern at 1.15 and hope that somebody will match them after kick off, or back them at 1.25 (or higher).

I would like to ask that if Bayern Munich playing at home, it’s odds is 1.2, what are professional bettors do before kickof?
They are trying the back high, and lay low or just simply they are waiting the odds to go out of fair odds range and simply lay them? If they are doing this, they shouls have big patient..

Thanks,

What we are talking about is balancing the books in the ante post market – the period leading up to kick-off.

Bookmakers certainly do attempt to balance their books; otherwise they would not place bets of their own with other bookmakers, a practice which certainly does happen.

It happens in other industries too, for example the insurance market, where insurance companies lay off some of their potential liabilities by buying re-insurance. It’s normal practice and every insurer does this to some degree or another.

You will certainly struggle to make money backing favourites or lower priced events where the margins have to be protective for the bookmakers’ sakes. Where you will always find value is in the underdog market – enough underdogs win at HT and FT in many leagues worldwide to make handsome profits. The only problem for bettors is the psychology of playing longer odds and coping with longer losing streaks.

With homework, patience and persistence you can certainly make big yields, but those looking for more instant success are usually those who believe in getting rich quick, which is a fallacy when applied to betting of any nature.

Check out our 1×2 Home, Draw, Away, Favourites & Underdogs tables for a taste of what I mean. The supporting videos (due in the next day or so) are also very revealing.

Thanks for taking the trouble to write and best wishes.