In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
with H2H History
WITH Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
WITHOUT Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.
‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.
Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.
The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.
Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:
- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
Supporting Videos
Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.
Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.
Frequently asked questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?
Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.
At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.
Ok…
So, imagining that we are speaking about Italy Serie A:
The inputs are:
Home team: 25 last results playing at Home “on Italy Serie A Games”
Away team: 25 last results playing Away “on Italy Serie A Games”
H2H: Home team at Home vs Away Team Away – “on Italy Serie A Games”
My doubt is… if I’m planning to bet on an Italy Serie A game, I need to consider only past results played at this competition?
Other games played Home, Away or H2H at other cups shouldn’t be considered?
Thanks for the support,
Fabio
Excellent!
Do you keep stats of sheet’s asian handicaps winning rate?
I took the sheet and must say it does make very much sense!
Best
Yes, we keep stats. I’m in the process of publishing them.
And one more – can I use this sheet to calculate FT odds only, does the HT data influence calculated FT odds in any way?
Best and thanks
The HT data does not influence the FT odds, but the H2H meetings do.
hello,
how does your sheet work with asian handicaps, can it find any value in that market?
really interesting, but lenght of the procedure remains an issue though, not all of us are that skillfull in manipulating excel sheets! 🙂
best
Hi,
I’ve been using this spreadsheet for a while, but I still don’t have a sample size big enough (of 100 or + bets) to talk about results, as almost all european domestic leagues are approaching the end of the season this is going to wait until next season.
Anyway, my question is what is the reason behind choosing the latest 25 matches instead of, let’s say, 38 which would mean the latest 2 entire seasons of a team playing at home or away?.
Does choosing the latest 25 provide any significant edge over a bigger sample size?. For example in Italy’s Serie A, comparing the odds offered in most bookmakers from the ‘true’ odds calculated using this method they tend to differ a lot, favorites are “favorited way too much” clearly underpriced, and underdogs are overpriced. Seems like bookmakers pay more attention to recent form (latest 6 or 8 games) than the latest 25, 38, or x number of games from a certain team. So I keep asking myself everyday what is more important, past statistics or recent form?.
The reason why I chose 25 matches instead of 38 is to give more weight to the recent matches. For example, at the start of a season if you are considering 38 matches, you are considering the last 2 seasons with a 50/50 weight. After the new season is halfway through, you will be still giving the season 2 years ago 30% weight, and so on.
However, in some circumstances, e.g. when teams have not been playing in the same league an approach of using more seasons for the calculation of odds may produce more reliable results that the last 25 matches only.
What we are looking at in this particular spreadsheet are the matches between teams in the same league, and with H2H history.
Regarding your other question: For example in Italy’s Serie A, comparing the odds offered in most bookmakers from the ‘true’ odds calculated using this method they tend to differ a lot, favorites are “favorited way too much” clearly underpriced, and underdogs are overpriced. Please see following article: How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
Answering your last questions: Past statistics are definitely more important than recent form! Recent form is statistically not significant for the big picture. Just think about bookmakers publishing their odds often 3-4 weeks prior to a match. How would they possibly be able to foretell the “recent form” on the day of the match? If there are adjustments prior to a match then it’s taking public opinion into account in order to balance their books and increase market shares, certainly not recent form. “Recent form” is very subjective and very much influenced by the media.
Of course, if one could use statistics telling you how much a certain player has been influencing a game, and how much effect him missing a game had on the observed results, you would perhaps be able to calculate these probabilities… Unfortunately, I do not think this is possible. Not enough data available, and also unreliable.
Hello
Im new to the site but impressed so far, however I am wondering why the difference in methodology between this excel sheet (25 home/away results plus h2h) and the one used to calculate in your betting course (using multiple year data with clustering). Wont they give different results? Is one more accurate than the other?
Hi PMan,
Using the last 25 matches plus H2H for league games is a kind of “back-of-the-envelope calculation”, taking from the huge assortment of matches available (such as cup games, internationals, matches without H2H history, matches between teams having not played in the same league, etc.) only the partial subset of league matches with H2H history.
Once odds calculation is understood using 5 years of data with clustering, then simplifications emerge. In order to predict quite accurate distributions for a particular sample it is not always necessary to carry out the whole set of exhaustive calculations. The value calculator is such an example.
Hope this makes sense.
Thanks for the fast reply Soccerwidow and thanks for the answer.I have another question.The video will be free or you will have to pay for it? PS:Sorry for the double post.
For purchasers of the true odds calculator explanatory videos on how to use the spreadsheet will be definitely free.
Hey Soccerwidow I have some questions.I decided to buy the League Game True Odds & Value Detector but I still have some questions.The pack contains only the excel page with formulas? And if I want to select a soccer match what dada’s I need to obtain about teams? I need to get the 30 last matches from every team and enter them manually? Same with H2H? I really appreciate your job!
Hi Sergiu,
yes, it is correct that you will have manually to insert the results for the last 25 matches as well as for the H2H. However, of course, there are short cuts which will limit the necessary time.
Actually, I’m planning to produce a video for this task over Easter.
Hey Soccerwidow I want to ask you something.If I buy this I will get only the excel page? And if I select a match I have to enter manually all the datas of the last 30 games of the each team and H2H games?
Hi,
Just bought this a few days ago and I’m enjoying researching the data in order to identify value. However, as I am completely new at sports betting and am only doing this for a bit of fun the time it takes to input data etc. doesn’t matter to me at this stage.
I was showing a friend the spread sheet which I’ve done for Sunderland Vs. Man Utd. this Saturday and I had inputted the wrong odds for ‘both teams to score’ Yes. The true odds are Yes 2.52 and I had entered 11 rather than 1.91. With the odds at 11 Value I is 557.5% but there is no value II and no recommendation to back, which I don’t understand. I can only assume that the probability of both teams to score is so low that even with the fantastic odds it’s not a worthwhile proposition?
Is this the case?
Hi Wingnuts, please have a very close look at cells S28+S29 which contain the formulas.
The formulas are set that it has to be the minimum of these 2 values, and then the market odds have to be lower than the calculated average odds from the last 25 matches, and also from the H2H.
However, please note that the automated formulas are only meant as examples. They should be changed and adjusted to suit your own strategies, preferences and needs. For example, you may prefer backing to laying, or feel more comfortable to bet within a certain odds zone or maintain specific probability clusters.
Good day Soccerwidow,
I hope I find you and the other half well, hoping you had a wonderful Christmas & new year.
I did say I would hold off from bothering you until Feb. Well as were nearly there I thought I would jump the gun & keep you up to date on where I’m at… I’ve again copied a list of my bets, all strategies mixed together to forge nearly 500 bets. (You did say to come back when I have 500 bets) – see chart
You will notice my strike rate is in perfect line with the True Odds Predicted rate. After nearly 500 bets I’m amazed at being within 0.09% of the True Odds marker.
My question is related to my hit rate, as you will see overall my strike rate is 86%.. I toyed around with a rate between 65-75% but the more losses where affecting my mindset. In your opinion what strike rate should I be looking for, I had in my head 67% for some reason and tried to attain that with certain markets, although playing U1.5, U4.5 & the CS markets brings up the rate.
It really depends on your personal preferences. As you are saying yourself, the many consecutive losses in the lower clusters (65%) were affecting your mindset. Hence, it seems for you perfect to stick to the 85%+ probability bets.
This is perhaps an open question to everyone. How do you select which of the bets highlighted by the spreadsheet that you consider to be “valuable”? Do you bet on all where ‘value II’ is positive, regardless of win probability? Does anyone have any “minimum” levels?
Asecond question, possibly directed more at soccerwidow. I find the spreadsheet generating a far larger number of lay bets than it does back bets. Is this normal?
The formulas in cells O18 to O20 are highlighting the lays and backs according to our personal selection criteria which we were using for the match previews (German Betfair Blog). Have a good look at the formula. It’s picking the minimum or maximum, and then comparing the averages of the calculations, and making a choice.
We do not bet on every game. This is our personal strategy when selecting bets, but there are millions of other strategies. Everybody has his or her own.
You need to change/adjust the formulas in O18 to O20 according to your personal selection criteria, e.g. choosing the matches with the highest value to back or lay. The cells are not protected, and you can change the formula in whatever formula you prefer to use.
Just checking in lol
Hope your well, Took me some weeks but I THINK im back on track. Have gathered lots and lots of data and after sifting through all of it piece by piece I have a couple of value strategies that I have been following.
In 4 weeks iv had a ROI of 25%. It hasnt been plain sailing, before I was able to get my data I was betting blindly on value bets I simply picked myself across different markets, I never made any decent returns until the eureka moment finally came.
Im sending you a picture of a graph that covers the last 4 weeks for me. Tell me, is this to be expected? is this normal and is it viable to continue like this? Because that excites me…
Any value bets that fit the system are bet like this. Over 52% winning chance is backed or layed with liability of £100, any bet in the system below 52% gets backed or layed with a liabilty of £50. So with bets of £50 & £100 I have a profit of £2,710 from an investment of £10,500 over 117 bets giving me yield of 25.8%.
Can I expect this to continue? Is the graph normal? I only ask as there isnt much fluctuation, its a graph that makes my hairs stand up but I can assure you, it is a true representation of the strategy ive been covering lately.
Your graph looks good – typical of a sound value betting system!
25.8% is a fantastic return but I would like to see 500 bets performed before suggesting you are on to a winner.
Without knowing exactly what your strategy is I can’t really provide any firm comments, but am happy we’ve helped expand your thinking about ‘value’ betting.
I would also suggest that you maintain the current staking plan until the end of the season before you consider any form of proportional increase (ratchet). We have experienced very similar curves to yours and then seen a drastic dip in fortunes, so the great start you’ve had is by no means a guarantee of continued success.
You sound happy though and I am pleased for you!
Thank you very much for answering every question so thoroughly, Soccerwidow.
I have a whole new view on betting now after reading your blog/site.
And I think I have asked most of the questions I have had in my mind and can now start focus on picking out some good value bets 😀
I find the best solution is, if You type into google “h2h statistics” -> the 3rd result will be the h2h statistics page from wettpoint.
Access the site and type the names of the teams to get the h2h stats. Wettpoint will display them neatly ordered by date, competition Fulltime and Halftime results alltogether.
Info obtained by cuortesy of Soccerwidow.