In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
with H2H History
WITH Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
WITHOUT Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.
‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.
Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.
The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.
Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:
- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
Supporting Videos
Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.
Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.
Frequently asked questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?
Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.
At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.
Hi Soccerwidow,
Firstly, a very big and nice compliment to you … A few weeks ago I bought your Excel spreadsheet for league games and I am very happy with it.
It is so super clear, and the most amazing thing is that it works really great … I have analyzed a good number of games and only need half an hour for a complete evaluation. So far, I have calculated around 120 matches 🙂
Some of them fell through the filter and had almost no value, but 48 matches I was happy with and achieved a 16% ROI ;)! I think that the 16% figure is somewhat utopian and will probably correct itself to about 10% but that is more than satisfying…
It is truly amazing how accurately mathematics and statistics can predict a game … breathtaking output!
Hey soccerwidow I bought the value detector and I started a portofolio.But I have a problem.I don’t have a real bank at the moment so I keep an evidence only virtual of my bets.The portfolio is only 2 weeks old so I started with a bank of 200 units but the problem is that only 1 or 2 times till now I got a bank increase in the rest of the time my bank still decrease.So I think the problem is on choosing the bets.In 2 weeks I picked about 85 value bets and 11 of them are Half Time/Full Time.From those 11 HT/FT picks only 1 win at the odd of 4.5 so I have a big loose of this kind of bet.Is there a trick on choosing the value bets ? How do you choose the value bets from a match ? I saw that you started with a bank of 50 euros and your bank growed almost every month.Do you also take the hgher probabilitys in count? Most of the HT/FT bets that I choosed are over 20% probability and win only 1.It’s true that a winning HT/FT bet can boost your bank but it seems that it’s so hard to win this kind of bet.I will really appreciate if you will give me and advice !
Hi Sergiu, the VC is not an automated betting tool. It has been developed to support people to identify value bets and implement their own strategies.
Column S brings up betting suggestions. However, you need to decide which betting types you want to concentrate on, and which probability clusters to follow.
For example, if you keep picking bets with a probability of 70% and higher to win, then on average you should observe 7 out of 10 picks winning. However, if you keep swinging between different probability clusters then the bets are not comparable, and also they are not comparable if you don’t stick to a certain strategy, e.g. Over/Under goals markets, or HT result market.
If you look at the value calculator you should see that the HT/FT market is marked “MONITORING PURPOSES ONLY”. The reason is that most of these bets have very low probabilities such as 20% and below. If you decide, for example, to bet on Home/Home if there is value and a probability of around 20% then you will be expecting that of every 5 bets one bet wins. However, unfortunately bets do not line up nicely. Within these low probability groups you may experience a ‘lucky’ streak and win a few bets in a row, but also observe dozens of consecutive bets losing.
I hope this helps.
Soccerwidow, this calculator (True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History) requires data of at least 6 H2H matches in the last 10 years, I guess those 6 matches (or more) are taken as an “accurate” sample size for it’s calculations (correct me if I’m wrong), but why the last 10 years?
My guess is: to put more weight in recent season performances than seasons played 12 or 15 years ago, but I’m only guessing. You already answered me some months ago about why 25 instead of 38 or more matches; I wonder if is the same case with H2H records?.
In other subject, I found very interesting your highly statistical/mathematic approach to soccer since I discovered this site; the vast majority only base their predictions/expected distributions on what many people like to call “form”, or if X or Y player is absent or available to be in the match, many bettors use to pay too much attention to those tiny details, some even wait until line ups are given to take a position.
I really doubt bookmakers pay so much attention to every single detail to build their prices, as they have hundreds of games per week in many sports not just soccer; that approach IMO it’s a bit time waster, unless they know in advance some significant and fishy information; like a match being fixed; I still can’t understand statistically how important is the starting 11; a midfielder being injured, a coach being fired, etc.?
Hi Jogomo, many thanks for your praise. It is always very motivating to hear kind words. 🙂
There are many reasons for using the last 10 years for capturing H2H statistics. I will try to answer your query in greater detail via an article. However, the short answer is that every other sample size is far less statistically significant, even the requirement of “at least 6 H2H matches” is very small in statistical terms. Nevertheless, it works and brings up pretty accurate results.
Regarding bookmakers, just keep reminding yourself that these guys publish their odds sometimes weeks in advance of a game. They don’t have a crystal ball to predict the starting 11, a midfielder being injured, a coach being fired, etc. Check this article: How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do? It may answer your query. If not, don’t hesitate and keep asking. Questions really help us to know which topics are of high interest to our readers and need addressing.
It makes no sense though, how can a result 4 years ago have any influence on odds for a forthcoming game?
In some cases none of the same players will even be playing on either side?
Do you have a more detailed explanation as to why the H2H records are so important as to my mind they should not have any influence?
Thanks
Hi Chris, successful gambling is linked to odds calculation, meaning predicting the probabilities of an event, calculating the expected distribution of results, but not about forecasting correct results with 100% certainty. Foretelling the outcome of a specific match is simply impossible.
You are right, H2H records from games, say 4 years ago, cannot have too much influence for a forthcoming game. However, in statistics we are not talking about “influences” or “stimulus”, or which other terms are common in connection with the wishy-washy discussions about “form” within the betting community.
Strictly speaking, there is nothing such as form which can be analysed statistically. The available data is neither large enough, nor comparable or interval scaled. So-called “form data” cannot be interpreted arithmetically.
It is important to remember that successful betting is all about calculating expected distributions, coming up with true odds and identifying value in the prices [odds] in the market.
I understand that this pure statistical approach to betting may come accross as being unnerving and it is certainly in conflict with emotions. Therefore, you may wish to check the following article: Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?. This was one of my first articles as my dear husband used to feel pretty disturbed if teams didn’t finish meeting his gut feelings and expectations.
Thank you for your query as it’s something which seem to bother a lot of people, and if time permits I will address this question in greater length via articles, calculations, chart data, tutorials, etc.
Hi,
I refer to the the H2H function. I struggle to understand how a match that occurred several seasons ago have an effect on the odds of a match in the present??
Odds calculation is all about expected distributions.
For example, if from 10 matches between two teams in the past, eight games finished with a home win, then this is quite important and needs to be factored into the probabilities for the forthcoming game.
Hi Soccerwidow,
quick question in regards to the True Odds and Value Detector:
For the H2H comparison of both teams, would you include games played on neutral ground, i.e. domestic cup games for example? Or would you only include games played at the home teams home ground?
I came across this a few times especially in the Scottish Premier League
Hi Julian,
league games with H2H history are either played on the teams home grounds or on the other teams home grounds. Therefore domestic cup games played on neutral ground are not applicable for H2H comparison as it’s for both teams an away game.
Another question which comes up regularly is, if it is wise to include friendlies as well as cup games which are played at the home teams ground, or matches where the away team played on another teams ground.
I have not found any statistical reasons yet why these games should not be included. Their inclusions/exclusions neither make the odds calculation more accurate nor do they increase/descrease observed deviation.
Being a football supporter, my husband feels strongly not to include friendly matches, as they are not competitive games. But we disagree on this point. Me, being a practical and by nature lazy mathematical mind who is speeding up the data collection process by using macros and automated copy and paste functions to fill in the value sreadsheets with data, I dislike time spend to sweep through H2H matches to delete manually friendlies. Especially as I don’t see any mathematical, statistical reason for this.
The international spreadsheets you mention are certainly a good place to begin making value estimations of these teams, but it takes to garner data and enter odds for each of the historical 25 matches, as well as the results. In addition, the international games are all in the international arena, but you cannot make this comparison between the Championship and the EPL for example – different arenas altogether.
Newcomers are unpredictable without having any comparable data. We answered your question in form of an article: Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
Thank you for your prompt reply.
I completely understand where you are coming from about why these kind of teams are not included in the Value Bet Calculator, and that a prudent betting portfolio would not contain these games due to the statistical deficiencies.
But purely out of a thirst for knowledge i remain intrigued as to how these teams can be priced up as accurately as possible. After all, the bookmakers are able to do this (before adjusting the odds according to how the market will react).
So i think it’s just a case of me experimenting and seeing what i can come up with. Maybe an interesting place for me to start would be the methods used in Soccerwidow’s international qualifiers and international club competitions spreadsheets, as both try and cater for the lack of head to head history.
Many thanks for your help, and i hope the site continues to go from strength to strength.
Hello again Jonathan, and thanks for all your praise (blush!), current, and past support of Soccerwidow.
The problem you describe is one that we try to avoid for the sake of comparing apples with apples.
Any fixtures within a team’s last 25 home or away games which have been played in a lower or higher league than their opposition in the game you are analysing automatically discounts that team from our analysis.
In other words, we do not analyse such teams with the Value Bet Calculator, nor do we include any matches where there are not at least six competitive head-to-head games in the last 10 calendar years at the ground in question.
You have to be consistent with statistics and if they are in any way a miss-match then there is no chance you will obtain a ‘true’ reflection of the odds. You will have to leave Yeovil, Bournemouth and Doncaster out of The Championship reckoning for this season and concentrate only on matches between teams which have remained in the division from last season. The same goes for all the other leagues.
Jonathan, we hope this helps, but by all means ask again should you require clarification on any matter.
Best wishes for the new season.
Hi Soccerwidow
First, can I say your website is superb. I’ve been looking for this kind of material for years and it has helped me immensely with my betting, thank you.
I am trying to work out how i can calculate the true odds for games involving teams that have just been promoted/relegated to a new league.
For example I am currently pricing up the English Championship fixtures for this weekend, and i’m experiencing problems with Yeovil who were promoted last season.
You normally advise using the last 25/30 home/away games and head to heads.
However Yeovil’s last 25/30 games were played in a weaker division so these will be misleading.
Also, Yeovil have never played at Championship level before, so there will be almost no head to head history for any of their opposition this season.
I’m having this problem with many of the promoted/relegated teams throughout the english leagues, Yeovil are just an example.
So how would i go about producing accurate ‘true odds’ for these kind of teams?
Thank you for your help
Statistics always work.. for football, for hockey, for horse racing, for everything.
The only thing that is always necessary is of course a sufficent amount of data and the knowledge how to analyse and use it.
Thanks for your comment and good luck with your betting! 🙂
I could not leave a reply in your article about over/under guide so i try here instead, i hope thats ok. I am in the beginning om my betting season, using what i learned in your over under tutorial and collected data from 12 leagues around europe (many hours spent). After just 30 bets its looking quite good, i know that i need many more to be sure if my idea works. If all is looking good after a couple of months i am wondering, can i take what i learned from your over/under tutorial and collect data from hockey also. It should not matter if it is fotball or hockey ? i come to the conclusion that if it works for fotball it would be great to be able to let the money work because the hockeygames plays in other timelines.
I’m really looking forward for this update, I’ve been using this tool for some time and it’s very helpful to have a mathematical edge in addition to own knowledge and perceptions for each game. It would be nice if it could calculate value in the for example 0.25, 0.75, 1.25 etc. asian handicap and goal markets, of course it can be done manually but it could speed up the process.
There’s another very reliable web site for raw data picking called http://www.footballzz.co.uk , it covers some leagues like those from latin america not featured in the other sites.
Hope you get well soon and keep the great work!
Hi Soccerwidow,
Great news!!! Looking forward to the User Manual and an updated version of the Value Detector. I am using the current version and I think its a great tool to analyse upcoming matches.
I wonder what you have got up your sleeve to improve the current version?
Its easy to use and the information you get out of it is absolutely fantastic!!
I usually copy the data across from http://www.football-data.co.uk, I use the SEARCH function in Excel and copy all the data straight into the Value Detector. For the H2H I use http://www.soccerbase.com – just click on Head-to-Head and select the teams – it couldnt be easier!!
Its easy to use and it does exactly what it says – it helps to find VALUE BETS which is what you want if you want long term profits
I hope you will feel better soon and I cant wait to see your next piece of work!
All the best from Australia!!
Hey SoccerWidow
I’ve just bought this spreadsheet and i think it’s amazing. I deal with excel myself, but its kinda complicated. There are so many formulas (Actually, i think its fantastic, but I cant understand everything).
Do you think about launch a PDF or something to explain in detail this spreadsheet? I’ve watched the video, but i’m not an English speaker myself. I understand a lot in there, but I miss some valuable points. A PDF or some tutorial will be great.
Thanks again!
Hi Alex, I’m happy to hear that you love the spreadsheet. There is an update on the way which will identify even more accurate picks, and also a manual and tutorial. We will inform all buyers as soon as it’s ready… However, unfortunatelly this project is on ice at the moment as I had a quite serious horse riding accident end of April which completely took me out since; I spend two weeks in intensive care in hospital followed by many weeks with a clowded mind at home. Luckily I’m getting better every day, but it will take time until I’m back to full strength again and able to adjust formulas in spreadsheets, prepare them for sale and write explanatory articles and tutorials.
So sad to hear about your accident… hope you get better soon!
About the spreadsheet, it is amazing. It does all the math needed to find good value bets (not only value bets, but value bets with high chance to occur). Looking foward for the update and tutorials, especially about the Asian Handicap sheet. Man! there is so many information in there! lol
And one last thing: thanks for the fast reply!