In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
with H2H History
WITH Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
WITHOUT Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.
‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.
Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.
The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.
Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:
- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
Supporting Videos
Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.
Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.
Frequently asked questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?
Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.
At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.
Can you be more detailed and tell me what kind of selections should I pick? cuz simply it doesnt work.Lots of 80-90% LOSE and I loose a lot on those selections.What stacking pland do you use soccerwidow? How you choose the selections? I think the real answers for those two questions are crucial between using this spread sheet for “making a living from it” and use it in a loose like other 90% of people.
Hi Leon,
You are asking a question which I addressed in my article What is Value? What is Value Betting?
The Value Calculator computes two different ‘Values’:
(1) Value I: Mathematical advantage of a bet (expected return = ROI)
(2) Value II: Relative deviation from the market odds
Unfortunately, after ‘value’ has been calculated by our spreadsheet the brain needs to kick in, because there is no statistical analysis in this world, no formula, no super-computer, which is able to replace the human capabilities of reason and logic.
To become a winner it is crucial to understand the concept of value, but the story is not over then. In order to win, you have to build cluster groups as well as construct portfolios for risk diversification.
I am planning a comprehensive course on this topic, and if time permits it will be ready for publishing by the end of this year.
Regarding Cluster Groups you will find them mentioned in Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012.
ok thanks for reply …
You are doing a service in which the value indicated on the matches of the top European leagues?
My problem is that working out every day, I do not have much time to dedicate to betting the right study to find the value.
Do you have a service subscription predictions?
or know of a reliable site?
Hi Maurizio,
The match previews I think you referring to were commissioned by Betfair Germany, and we translated them for our readers into English and published them on Soccerwidow.com: Archive Match Previews Euro 2012
Unfortunately, there was a major change in gambling legislation in autumn 2012 in Germany which forced bookmakers and exchanges to withdraw from the German market. For us this meant that we lost our (well paid!) contract to publish free match previews and predictions: Soccerwidow Match Preview Pause in Betfair German Blog
Although the picks were very successful: Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012, we have not succeeded to find another publisher who would be interested in statistical articles and picks.
Therefore, sadly, there are no more free picks, and no more match previews for the public from us.
To your question regarding a service subscription prediction: No, we are planning neither a pick service nor a subscription service. And I’m very sorry, but I do not know any pick service site in the Internet which I would fully and wholeheartedly call “reliable”; but not because there are no reliable sites. There may be some. But to check them if there are reliable we would have to monitor their services over a long period, and this is not our job.
Sorry we cannot be of further assistance.
Hello sir, I read some article of your site and I realized that they are in the right place … I have done a course with a professional player who taught me how to calculate the value of a game, in this way:
see the last 25 games for the home team, the team’s last 25 games on the road, add the wins for the home team and the away team’s defeats, x + x + defeats for the home team wins the away team, do the math and then find the percentages and convert them into shares …
Just recently I contacted a programmer to understand if there is the possibility of creating an application which goes to carcare the last 25 games, and does the calculations automatically … you have a software like this that updates only with matches? why do all this work every day, it takes a lot of time and effort.
Another question …. do you predictions a subscription service of value?
Hi Morris,
it should be possible to create an application which does the capturing of historical data automatically. However, the tricky bit is that many leagues have different numbers of teams and games each season; there are several teams with shared grounds (e.g. Inter Milan and AC Milan); in addition, there is some movement each season as teams are relegated and promoted. There are many things to consider when programming an application as leagues do not stay stable (data processing in programming terms). This is quite a challenge when automating the data collection process.
Regarding predictions and subscriptions, I’m sorry but we follow a DIY (Do It Yourself) approach. Our readers come from every country on this planet, each of them following their own team, having access to different bookmakers, and preferring different betting types. It is therefore really not possible to create a subscription service which is suitable and will satisfy all of our readers.
Ex: In video (Asian handicap)
Liverpool -1
Head to head
W bet win = 1
Push money back = 5
L bet Lose = 5
I think Prob W = 1/11=9.09%. But i saw you caculated =16.67%.
Can you share formula to me? I need the fomrmula
Hope you help.
Thanks
Hi love,
if you buy the spreadsheet it contains all formulas underlying the calculations in it (although without explanations why they work). The formulas are not hidden or secret.
Regards, Soccerwidow
Hi.
I don’t understand how you caculated Prob.W in Asian handicap ? Can you explain to me ? Thanks
Hi love,
how to calculate Asian Handicap is going to be a (paid) course one day. It cannot be explained in a few words. Sorry.
Hi
I readed your article. I watched your video. I still undertand. You can explain what is “HS-AO ,AS-HO,H-CS,A-CS” ? Thanks
HS-AO Home scores, Away NIL goals
AS-HO Away scores, Home NIL goals
H-CS Home Clean Sheet
A-CS Away Clean Sheet
Many thanx for an excellent spreadsheet
The spreadshhet is an excellent doing for what I have been trying to do for a long while.
Hi again,
Just a update that since using the new spreadsheet I now don’t get the Value II %’s in the Full Time Result odds. Also, in the U3.5 tab, the Value II percentage’s are originally wrong unless I manually type in Back into the Custom tab.
Other than that I’m enjoying looking for some value strategies.
Ravi
Hi Ravi, this isn’t an error.
Value I shows the price difference between market odds and the calculated true odds. This percentage is always the same. Either the market price is higher than the true odds, then it’s a positive value, or smaller – then it’s negative.
Value II is either negative or positive, depending if it’s a lay or a back, and also depending if the market price is higher or lower than the true odds.
In the previous version a value was always displayed, assuming a back bet and disregarding a lay bet.
With the update, I improved the spreadsheet, and there is no value displayed as it’s misleading if it is not known if the bettor wants to back or to lay.
Thanks for the quick reply. Any ETA on the update?
Hi Ravi, I just emailed to you the updated version, and we will also upload the newer version to the site asap.
Hi, is there a problem on the U1.5 and U2.5 tabs? For example I have 29.18% and 3.43 in true odds, 4.50 best odds for U1.5. I type Back into custom and I get 77.8% betfair win probability and 70.8% real win probability for a value of -23.8%. Surely this is wrong, and it is the similar on the U2.5, it is acting like I have offered the lay odds instead.
Any help, appreciated.
Thanks, Ravi
Hi Ravi, thank you for your valuable indication.
Yes, you are right, but this is not really an error as the spreadsheet is set up in the belief that the majority of punters prefer backing O 1.5, not U 1.5.
However, I will address the issue today, and email to you an updated version as well as upload the newer version for future customers which takes this into account.
I’m still confused and I readed the two articles you linked me.I saw that in the Liverpool-Man.City you tooked in consideration value I.
Hi Jay, I am really sorry for your confusion, but odds calculation is not explained in a short answer.
The value calculator is a learning tool; the level is more advanced than our Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals.
The course teaches an understanding of probabilties, odds calculation, as well as ‘value’. It contains loads of example calculations and own exercises. The value calculator presupposes that this basic knowledge is already there.
Hey soccerwidow I have a question for you.When you pick a prediction lets say one with value grater than 30% what you take in consideration Value 1 or Value 2 mathematical advantage? And what is the difference between those 2.Please help me!
Value I = % price difference between market odds/real odds
Value II = % ‘value’ or ‘mathematical advantage’
It’s up to you which one you take into considaration and base your decisions upon but stick to the same evaluation process all the time.
These two articles may help you to understand the term ‘mathematical advantage’ better:
What is a Bet? How to Calculate Mathematical Advantage?
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Thanks for your question, and I will add it to my list of topics to address in a little bit more in detail.
Hello,
Does the excel works automatic or i have to introduce odds (1×2, etc) manually?
Are there updates every month or similar?
Thanks
Dear Manu,
please watch the supporting videos (links are below the video embedded on this site).
The spreadsheet is not (!) a tool for automated betting, and it does not (!) work automatically.
It has been developed for learning purposes, for people who wish to learn odds calculation to improve their betting skills by pointing out match result probabilities and the notional “value” contained in each bet.
Hello,
Why 50-50% to estimate true odds? (Last results-H2H)
Why not 70-30?
Thanks
Hi Manu, because the 50-50 split is the formula which works best for league games with H2H history. It returns accurate results with a low variance – meaning that the expected distribution (own calculations) and the observed results match with higher accuracy than when applying any other approach.
This topic is on my schedule to address in more depth as we receive quite a good number of queries.
Hello,
Looks interesting as 90% of your website
To use this tool i have update odds for each match manually or updates are automated?
Sorry for my poor english.
Best regards
Hi Manu and thanks for your question…
Everything has to be done manually.
There are too many users from different parts of the world, using different bookmakers, interested in different leagues, following their own strategies and interests, etc. to make automation of the spreadsheet viable.