In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
with H2H History
WITH Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
WITHOUT Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.
‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.
Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.
The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.
Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:
- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
Supporting Videos
Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.
Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.
Frequently asked questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?
Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.
At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.
hi soccerwidow!
ive just purchased the value bet calculator and am very much a novice in excel. just wanted to know the quickest way to delete the existing odds data in the column without deletie at a time? i keep trying but end up deleting loads of the other fixed info.
many thanks
scott
Thanks, one more question.
I am planning to use the Lay the Draw strategy with the value calculator.
This means that if the value calculator says the 0-0 odds is 15 or higher and the draws odds is smaller than 3,5, than I lay the draw and exit the trade after the first goal was scored.
What do you think about it?
What do you think, should I use just the value calculator for calulcating 0-0 odds or it’s better if I use the last 5 seasons of data for each team?
Thanks,
Szabi
Hi Szabi, there is the statistical phenomena “regression to the mean”. This means that if the value calculator odds indicate a very low probability for the draw but the probability of the league is much higher, then the likelihood increases that it will be a draw in the next game. This is a really funny phenomena, and to understand it fully you will have patiently to wait until I have found the time and written the 1×2 course.
By the way, a draw can be also a 0-0. Therefore to speculate that there will be a goal in the game is gambling. I would leave this kind of bets alone if you don’t have further information which prove your strategy correct.
Hello Soccerwidow
Tell me please, is it necessary to input data in the Year/Date coloumns? Isn’t enough to just enter the goals of each game?
Thanks!
Hi sarkec, no there is no need to put the year/data in the columns. This is just for beauty as we are archiving the value calculators once they are filled in, and it helps later when we need to look back at calculations.
You’re welcome. 🙂
Hello Soccerwidow.In the Leagues with play-offs rounds should we also include the play-off’s matches in the last 25 matches or only the matches from regular season?
If the play-offs include teams from the same league (what I doubt) then you can include them if you wish, otherwise stick to matches from the regular season.
However, keep in mind that there is no need to complicate things… matches from the same league are absolutely sufficient.
Hi Soccerwidow, I recently purchased your value bet detector without Asian handicap. I have read through many of the questions and answers by others and I have some of my own about the VBD that I’d like to ask.
1. When entering the data into the home and away tabs in the spreadsheet from the results of the last 25 matches for the home and away teams in question, should I only include the last 25 normal league matches for both the home and away teams? Or should I also include matches from the likes of the Champions league, Europa league and friendlies? (if these matches have occurred within the last 25 matches played by the home and away teams in question)
2. I read on your website the VBD is not a tool for automated betting. What exactly does that mean? Do you not recommend using the VBD on its own as a sole basis to decide what bets to take on, for the goal of long term profitable betting by placing value bets? (That is to see what the true odds are for bet types, and then to bet on the value bet selections the VBD identifies?) If not, why not? I’m also wondering, when does or how do you know when salient news renders the true odds given by the VBD inaccurate?
If the true odds given by the VBD are accurate, would long term betting on value bets given by the spreadsheet, using a level staking plan, not be a good idea in the interests of investing money into making a profit?
3. I read that you’ve said that the accuracy rate of the VBD is at +/- 5 percent. Is this on all bet types or what bet types does this include? Within the spreadsheet, are there any specific bet types that you are more confident that the given ‘true odds’ are more accurate than other bet types? Say, for example do you think that the ‘true odds’ given by the spreadsheet for the full time result are any more accurate than the ‘true odds’ given for over/under x goals?
Thanks in advance for answering my questions.
Best regards,
Jordan
Hi Jordan,
1. League matches only
2. The VC is a calculation tool which helps to make informed decisions if to be or not to bet. Unfortunately, automated betting is impossible. Otherwise, there would be by now enough computer programs developed which would do that, and the bookmakers would be probably already out of business.
I like comparing betting with running a business. There is no way of automating the set-up process for a business enterprise, even everything is known what requires a ‘good business’ and what makes a business successful. There are too many variables which permanently change.
In the article What is Value? What is Value Betting? I explain a little what the columns Value I and Value II in the VC actually mean. However, I explain it in far greater detail in my course: Fundamentals of Sports Betting
3. The VC calculates the past probability ranges which means that similar ranges will be expected in the future. How this exactly works, again I must strongly recommend working through my course Fundamentals of Sports Betting.
The past probability ranges which the VC shows are all accurate. How much they will be repeated in the future is another question – this is why I write +/-5%. It’s about the Standard Deviation and other correction factors. For the OU goals I have written a whole course, explaining deviations, ranges, fair odds, etc. 1×2 bets are in the pipeline to become a course.
Best wishes,
Soccerwidow
Hi,
Typically I bet on results with a probability of 70% or above, but to see value, that usually means having to ‘lay’ much more often than ‘back’.
Given the ‘high risk for little reward’ nature of lay betting and the exchange commission, is lay betting advisable as opposed to back betting, or is this likely to end in long term losses?
Thanks,
Dave
Can you email me the password for the Value bet detector spreadsheet? thank you.
Jo, I just emailed the password to you. 🙂
Thank you, my spreadsheet is with Asian handicap, you emailed all the passwords except for Asian Handicap. I need this one too. Thank you.
Hi soccerwidow,
I would like to ask you something. Is there any one live bet strategy that we can follow to find value bets?
For example, if a home team is winning 1-0 at the 20 minute mark we can calculate in which games, where the score was 1-0 after 20 minutes, we had a home victory or draw or an away victory. Do you find this strategy right or can you suggest us something else?
Hi Panos,
Unfortunately, in regards of in-play betting I have to pass, at least if it is required to make a statement about specific goal scoring times and their probabilities. We simply don’t have the data. However, what I can say hand on heart is that it is possible to take value in play in the goal market.
We have just published the 2nd edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course and with the help of the maths and stats explained in it you will be able to calculate probabilities for both, half time and the full time goal market. Then you could chose, for example (depending on your strategy and preferences of course), matches with a high probability of scoring during the first half. These matches can be backed, say O 2.5 goals before kick-off, and then layed as soon as the first goal has been scored (without depending on the time of the goal within the first half). I’m going to address this strategy in more detail in an article to follow. It is actually very much what Dr. Slicer did with his well-known “Lay the 0-0 at HT” strategy.
“Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).”
Would you mind explaining to me,
Is a minimum of 6 times H2H enough?
i noticed small samples of H2H is going to have a lot of weightage, if averaged with a 25 games home or away stats. Hence the true odds is quite a distance compared to bookmaker odds.
Of course H2H data is really not easy to get.
Thanks again. Teck Chuan
I do not have quite the time to divide them in 5% increments now, but I’ll try to do it later. From what I see in my spreadsheets now, in the 10% increment probability groups, the longest losing streaks are as follows:
50-59% probability – 5 consecutive losses
60-69% probability – 5 consecutive losses
70-79% probability – 3 consecutive losses
Bear in mind that each of the three groups only contains abount 160-170 matches.
Thank you!
Just keep us posted. It always helps to get some other statistics and observations.
Hi again! As promised, I return with the results after 500 bets using the Value Detector. Things have been running smoothly, except for a prolonged losing streak in the 50-59% probabilty cluster that has cost me about 50% of the winnings last month.
My ROI has therefore suffered a drop, but it still is at 6,1%, which is not too bad. All in all, i have placed 506 bets, of which 306 were successful, which is 60,5% accuracy.
The bets that I make are primarily backing the home team, backing over 2,5 and over 1,5 goals and sometimes backing 1X and BTTS. I have had continued misfortune in the under 2,5 and under 3,5 goals markets and have since abandoned them. Another promising field is the “Draw no bet” for the home team, which offers nice odds and reduced risk (when the game ends in a draw, you lose nothing).
By placing these bets, I have been able to win about two minimum wages of the country where I live in each of the past four months, which is pretty solid, I think.
I have one question. How about calculating the value of the matches of EURO 2016 which is right around the corner? Obviously, I can’t use the value detector, because the teams don’t have head to head stats. So, how many matches of the two teams that play a particular game should I take under consideration? How do I calculate the “true odds” and how have you done it 4 years ago at EURO 2012? 🙂
Thanks and I will be returning after I pass the 1000 bets mark around end of the year.
Hi Rado, the Euro 2016 is a real challenge to calculate. There are so many teams which play in this competition for the first time, or have played there but decades ago. Either no data available, or hardly usable.
You can use the VC for teams like France and Germany, but the problem here is that for Germany it is going to be an away game, and for France a home game. And are they actually in the same group? They are not. Bad luck! Should you actually find two teams in the same group with enough H2H’s then you will also have to increase the number of matches to 30 in the Home and Away tabs. You may be lucky and find a couple of matches which can be calculated. But really, is it worth your time? I would recommend to leave the Euro alone, betting wise. Just enjoy the games!
Another thing, as you have been placing 506 bets and monitoring them properly. Would you mind to sort them in probability clusters of 5% and count the losing streaks and the observed hit rate per cluster group? Please also show how many bets there were per cluster. We have an article The Science of Calculating Winning and Losing Streaks which would certainly benefit from a real life example.
Unfortunately you won’t be able to upload a screenshot, but you can email the screenshot to me for upload and I will add it to your comment. This would be great! Thanks!
hello,
i purchased the under over course , and the value detector 2 years ago.
im curious to know how can i estimate the error rate in my clusters ? (i idid the last 5 years clusters for the premier leagues , but i need to be more precise in order to be okay with my betting).
Hi Ely, another question which has been addressed and answered in great depth the 2nd edition of the course.
To estimate the error rate standard deviation needs to be calculated. How? Again, I have to refer to the forthcoming course, this topic being covered over 20+ pages. No short answer possible, sorry.
hello soccer widow, i would like to thank you and congratulate you and your team on the effort put to educate bettors.i purchased the under over x goals course a week ago , though i ve been using the value detector for 2 years now (which i bought a long time ago). i did the home and away clusters for all the italian teams (the last five years between the teams that competed in every previous year) as explained in the under over x goals, and i realised that when i calculate the average of any true odd, it differs a lot between the true odds of the clusters and the odds of the value detector.
example: AC Milan is playing Roma this saturday 14/05/16, and the value detector sheet (containing the last 25 matches and 11 h2h last 10 years) is giving AC Milan home win “2.93” as true odds , while the last 5 years clusters for AC Milan home and Roma away, is giving AC Milan home true odds “2.26”.
This is a huge mathematical difference,so which one is more accurate and which procedure should i employ?
thanks for your help 🙂
Hi Ely, these questions of yours are being addressed and answered in great depth the 2nd edition of the course. You are not the first to ask. 🙂 The course is finished, and we are currently adding the last finishing touch such as formatting and preparing it for publishing.
As soon as it’s published we will inform all the buyers of the 1st edition and offer the upgrade.
Can I use this tool in betting in asianbookie.com? I have no knowledge of odds format. I only know asian handicap betting. May I know can I learn step by step in your website or in your store? Thank u.
Hi Zinphyo,
If you have no knowledge about odds calculation then the ideal place to start is the Odds Calculation Course on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals. (Please note, there is an updated and far more comprehensive version of this due for release in the next 2-3 weeks, and anyone buying the original version on sale at the moment will be invited to acquire the new version upon launch for a much reduced price)
The Value Calculator is a product for people with some more advanced knowledge. You need already to be comfortable with terms such as “probabilities”, odds conversion, and so on.
Re: Jo 25 February 2016…
Hello Jo,
You are right, we leave out the play-off stages in every league. They are not ‘normal’ league games and are more akin to cup games, which are vastly more unpredictable.
Stick to stage 1 and 2 in Japan.