In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
with H2H History
WITH Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
WITHOUT Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.
‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.
Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.
The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.
Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:
- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
Supporting Videos
Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.
Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.
Frequently asked questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?
Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.
At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.
Hi,
Another question. Could you please explain how the O/U section work in the VC table?
I see the real odds for Over X goals on the right side but I see no Value 2 for that only a value 1. Should I calculate it by hand and compare it to the Value 1 or there is another method to find the Over X bets?
Thank you.
Hi Zoltan,
you will have to calculate it by hand (or personalise the VC and e.g. add an additional column with some formulas).
Hi,
Thank you for the above.
I have another question about HDA part in the Value Calculator table. At the U/O goals part you have to compare the Value 2 to the league Rel SD.
Does this mean that if I calculate the HDA Rel SD the same way it is calculated with the number of goals then I can use it to compare to the Value 2 in the Value Calculator and if it fits the other 2 criteria ( high enough probability and a proper quotient) then I have value bet?
Thank you.
Hi zoltan,
betting on 1×2 results is far more complicated than just betting on over/under goals. Firstly you have with OU’s only 2 outcomes, either it’s over or it’s under. And secondly, it doesn’t matter which of the teams scores the goals. This is far more predictable that a 1×2 result.
Furthermore, 1×2 odds are often manipulated by the bookmakers who have to take public opinion into account. Our HDA simulation tables show this visually: Betting on so-called favorites constantly leads to loss for the bettor. In addition, it really makes a difference if there is a team involved in the game with a high probability to win with a lead of 2 or more goals. And there are many more things to consider.
You can certainly use the VC as a starting point and calculate the HDA SD the same way it is calculated with the number of goals and check against all the criteria described in the OU course. In addition you will have to factor in the goal differences.
Good luck! 🙂
Hi,
This may have come up already, if so, apologies.
My question would be about the teams that were promoted in to a given league in the current season (e.g. Burnley or Middlesbrough in England promoted to PL ).
When they play against any team should I use the this seasons PL matches plus the previous seasons second league matches if there is a proper amount of H2H matches? Or do I leave out these matches entirely?
Thank you.
Hi zoltan, you’ll have to leave these matches. Sorry!
Sample Size Matters!
Deviation plays a vital role in analysing football statistics. This is a measurement for the distribution of an estimator function (i.e. estimating what is likely to happen in the future). If you mix two different seasons then you increase the error rate!
Hi, I just bought the Value dectector, how do I change the HDA in the grey cell?
The following videos should help you master the Value Calculator spreadsheet:
Introduction to the Value Calculator
How to prepare data for easy copying and pasting into the Value Calculator
How to input best odds available to you into the Value Calculator
How to input all other data into the Value Calculator
Hi,
I have purchased the value calculator with Asian handicaps. I’m not sure if I’m understanding the Asian handicaps section correctly,
Hi,
I have purchased the value calculator with Asian handicaps. I’m not sure if I’m understanding the Asian handicaps section correctly. Basically, I can enter the odds for the various handicaps for the home team, but the away side handicap odds I cannot – apparently due to the cells where the odds would be input being protected.
Is this right, or can these cells be unprotected so I can input the odds?
Thanks
P.S my previous attempt to post this message cut it off midway through. Sorry.
Column AQ calculates automatically as the ASH is a simple Yes/No bet.
So, if the odds for the home team are 2.5 (40%), then the odds for the away team have to be 1.67 (60%).
Anyway, I’m going to email you the passwords then you can unprotect the sheets and change whatever you like.
Please ask whatever you like to know, and if the question requires a whole article I will probably even reply in form of an article. 🙂
However, please try to formulate your questions as specific as possible. What exactly do you find difficult to understand?
Szia!
Küldtem Mailt!
Hi Attila,
Your name suggests that you are speaking my language.
If you would be interested in changing ideas about Value betting, feel free to contact me at my e-mail adress:
sarkanyszabolcs91 [at] gmail.com
nyugodtan irhatsz magyarul:)
What’s the difference between column Q and S?
Column Q I used for recommending dutch bets as I was writing for the Betfair blog, column S for single bets. If both, column Q and S recommend the same, it’s certainly a single bet worthwhile considering.
Thank you!
One more!
What do you do if you have a prediction with Detector f. e. Italian underdog away, but the HDAFU Italy show this odds range is not profitable?
The HDAFU tables are for system betting, the VC for analysing individual matches.
When you use the HDAFU tables you identify a proftable odds range, and then bet on every match within the set criteria, without analysing these matches individually.
The VC is for calculating the odds for an individual match. As already said, this tool was developed in connection with my articles for the Betfair blog in 2011/12.
Hi Soccerwidow!
After the game analysing, what do you advise how many hours before the kick off should I
give the odds the spredsheet in? Or when should I bet on the market?
Best regards,
Attila
Hi Attila,
whatever time is comfortable for you personally.
For example, in 2011/12, I was writing match previews for the German Betfair blog, and for this I carried out the calculations 3 days in advance. This was necessary as I had to write the article, send it for editing before it was then published 2 days before kick-off. The only important thing about “timing” is to consistently stick to about the same periods.
It may sound crazy but there are no “influencing factors” that influence the outcome and cannot be foreseen a few days in advance. Otherwise bookmakers could not stay in the business as they offer bets well before the kick-off of a game, sometimes even weeks before the game is due to be played.
Hello!
Did you try finding value in league matches with small liqudity, for ex: Egypt 1, Czech1-2, Poland 1-2, Ukraine, etc?
Do you think it’s worthwile trying at theese leagus where are at least 6 head to head matches were between teams?
Thanks
Hi sarkec,
Poland it’s certainly worth trying, the other leagues we don’t have experience ourselves. Sorry, the market is sooooooo huge and our time soooooooo limited that we mainly concentrate on the EPL and German Bundesliga.
Thanks,
One more question:)
Do you know where can I find inplay statistics?
for example: Shots on target, shots on goal, corners, etc
Thanks
Sorry, we can’t help you here. We specialize in ante post betting.
Hello Soccerwidow!
Do you know websites from where football data for American leagues can be downloaded?
Thanks,
Hi sarkec,
in the German version of Soccerwidow there is a post which discusses websites for (free) data download: Die besten Webseiten mit historischen Fußballdaten (The best websites with historical football data)
Just use Google Translate, and have especially a look through the comment section. There you will find helpful advice as well as a few links where data can be found.
Hope this helps. 🙂
Hi, I had already bought VD last year. My question is, did you make a back-test after 2012 on the formulas? I know that at this year you had success with 274 bets, bringing around 10% with level stakes. However a lot has changed since then.
Another comment I would like to make is, that you actually really can automate this process. Many more people would be a member here if they would see the results that these bring and also if they would not have to do many manual work. The results and odds are all there in internet, you could just add a page where the picks stay and show the w/l and the yield. You wrote earlier anyways that the other facts such as injuries/financial situations and so on can be ignored. That’s why I really do not understand why you say this is impossible 🙂 Please take this as a friendly suggestion.
i try highlighting and deleting but it just deletes the first box and nothing else
Hi Scott, the Value Calculator contains a lot of ‘protected’ cells. The reason behind this is that cells which contain formulas and calculations are not accidentally deleted by the user.
I can certainly email you the passwords for un-protecting the sheets but then you run the risk to lose the functionality if you delete something what is required for the calculator to work.