If you are not already aware, Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables are a powerful analytical tool to use for 1X2 (Home-Draw-Away-Favourite-Underdog) portfolio betting.

The level of detail contained in the tables even stretches to distinguishing between the first and second halves of a league season, where markedly different patterns of results are usually found.

Likewise, to help you plan holidays around your Over/Under Cluster Tables, please take note of the dates below. The number of teams these apply to in each league is governed by the available historical statistics: each team must be playing in at least a sixth consecutive season in its league during 2023-24.

2023-24 Winter Leagues

Start Date: 28th July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 9th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 17th February, 2024

Finish Date: c.18th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (22 matches each team). The league then splits into two groups of six: Championship and Relegation groups. Here, the six teams in each group play each other twice, home and away (a further 10 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Bundesliga HDAFU Table.

The Bundesliga Cluster Table applies to eight teams guaranteeing a minimum number of 80 games for betting (41.67% of all applicable games) and a maximum number of 88 games (45.83%), depending upon the nature of the six-team splits (i.e. min. 4/4; max. 6/2 or 2/6). All end-of-season Euro League and Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 28th July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 26th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 20th January, 2024

Finish Date: 16th March, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (30 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Jupiler Pro League HDAFU Table.

The Jupiler Pro League Cluster Table applies to 11 teams guaranteeing 110 games for betting (45.83% of all applicable games) during the regular season. All end-of-season Euro League, Championship Group, and Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 21st July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 3rd December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 18th February, 2024

Finish Date: c.18th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (22 matches each team). The league then splits into two groups of six: Championship and Relegation groups. Here, the six teams in each group play each other twice, home and away (a further 10 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Superligaen HDAFU Table.

The Superligaen Cluster Table applies to seven teams guaranteeing a minimum number of 60 games for betting (31.25% of all applicable games) and a maximum number of 72 games (37.50%), depending upon the nature of the six-team splits (i.e. min. 4/3 or 3/4; max. 6/1 or 1/6). All end-of-season Euro League play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 26th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 30th December, 2023

Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (38 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the EPL HDAFU Table.

The EPL Cluster Table applies to 12 teams guaranteeing 132 games for betting (34.74% of all games).

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 20th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 14th January, 2024

Finish Date: 18th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Ligue 1 HDAFU Table.

The Ligue 1 Cluster Table applies to 11 teams guaranteeing 110 games for betting (35.95% of all games).

Start Date: 18th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 20th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 13th January, 2024

Finish Date: 18th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Bundesliga 1 HDAFU Table.

The Bundesliga 1 Cluster Table applies to 11 teams guaranteeing 110 games for betting (35.95% of all applicable games). All end-of-season Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 19th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 7th January, 2024

2nd Half Starts: 14th January, 2024

Finish Date: 26th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (38 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Serie A HDAFU Table.

The Serie A Cluster Table applies to 12 teams guaranteeing 132 games for betting (34.74% of all games).

Start Date: 1st July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 13th November, 2023 (Apertura)

2nd Half Starts: c.5th January, 2024

Finish Date: c.2nd May, 2024 (Clausura)

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Liga MX HDAFU Table.

The Liga MX Cluster Table applies to 15 teams guaranteeing 210 games for betting (68.63% of all applicable games). All end-of-season Apertura and Clausura play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 17th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 12th January, 2024

Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Eredivisie HDAFU Table.

The Eredivisie Cluster Table apply to eight teams guaranteeing 56 games for betting (18.30% of all applicable games). All end-of-season Euro League and Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 21st July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 16th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 10th February, 2024

Finish Date: 25th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Extraklasa HDAFU Table.

The Extraklasa Cluster Table apply to nine teams guaranteeing 72 games for betting (23.53% of all games).

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 14th January, 2024

2nd Half Starts: 21st January, 2024

Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (34 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Primeira Liga HDAFU Table.

The Primeira Liga Cluster Table applies to seven teams guaranteeing 42 games for betting (13.73% of all applicable games). All end-of-season Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 14th July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 20th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 20th January, 2024

Finish Date: c.25th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (30 matches each team) before splitting into Championship (top 6) and Relegation groups (bottom 10). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Liga 1 HDAFU Table.

The Liga 1 Cluster Table applies to six teams guaranteeing a minimum number of 39 games for betting (12.38% of all applicable games) and a maximum number of 60 games (19.05%), depending upon the nature of the splits (i.e. min. 3/3; max. 6/0). All end-of-season Relegation and Euro League play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 21st July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 9th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 2nd March, 2024

Finish Date: 25th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (30 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Premier League HDAFU Table.

The Premier League Cluster Table applies to nine teams guaranteeing 72 games for betting (30.00% of all games).

Start Date: 5th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 2nd January, 2024

2nd Half Starts: 27th January, 2024

Finish Date: c.12th May, 2024

Each team plays each other three times (33 matches each team) before splitting into Championship and Relegation groups, where each team plays a further one match against all other teams in their group. All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Premiership HDAFU Table.

The Premiership Cluster Table applies to eight teams guaranteeing a minimum number of 96 games for betting (42.11% of all applicable games) and a maximum number of 100 games (43.86%), depending upon the nature of the splits (i.e. min. 4/4; max. 6/2 or 2/6). All end-of-season Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 20th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 3rd January, 2024

Finish Date: 26th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (38 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the La Liga Primera HDAFU Table.

The La Liga Primera Cluster Table applies to 11 teams guaranteeing 110 games for betting (28.95% of all games).

Start Date: 22nd July, 2023

1st Half Ends: 16th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 20th January, 2024

Finish Date: c.12th May, 2024

Each team plays each other three times (33 matches each team) before splitting into Championship and Relegation groups, where each team plays a further one match against all other teams in their group. All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Super League HDAFU Table.

The Super League Cluster Table applies to six teams guaranteeing a minimum number of 51 games for betting (22.37% of all applicable games) and a maximum number of 60 games (26.32%), depending upon the nature of the splits (i.e. min. 3/3; max. 6/0 or 0/6). All end-of-season Relegation play-off games are excluded from our analyses and should be avoided for betting.

Start Date: 11th August, 2023

1st Half Ends: 24th December, 2023

2nd Half Starts: 7th January, 2024

Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

Each team plays each other twice, home and away (38 matches each team). All of these games are included in our analyses and can be considered for betting using the Süper Lig HDAFU Table.

The Süper Lig Cluster Table applies to 11 teams guaranteeing 110 games for betting (28.95% of all games).

Minimum Number of Applicable Games (all 17 leagues): 1,592

Maximum Number of Applicable Games (all 17 leagues): 1,604

But which staking plan is the best?

The answer is: A simple and straightforward staking plan. Nothing complicated; just plump for flat staking with or without a ratcheting mechanism.

All other staking plans contain one or another problem and I can guarantee that there is definitely not a single staking method in existence, which makes a failing betting system work.

Therefore, firstly work out a sound betting system and then secondly, adhere to a modest and plain staking plan. Keep the money management as simple as possible because it is already difficult enough to keep up with everything that goes into monitoring a betting system. You will perhaps also have to think about juggling your bank between various bookmakers and exchanges if needs be.

In today’s article I’m going to show you a fuss-free staking plan using the example of our 2017-18 Winter League portfolio .

As mentioned, it’s a combination of a flat staking plan and a ratcheting mechanism.

A Definite Edge and a Sound Staking Plan Work Wonders!

With the help of our HDAFU Tables and, in particular, their Inflection Point graphs, it is now easy to develop a portfolio of bets with a definite mathematical edge.

And in conjunction with our chosen staking plan, the portfolio of 2017-18 Winter Leagues performed as follows:

Image 1: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit Curve with Ratcheting

We started with a betting bank of 4,000 units and finished after 47 weeks and 518 bets with a total 38,925 units.

Of course, it wasn’t a smooth ride the whole time. Especially at the start of the season, the first 15 weeks (up to 27/10/2017) were very tough. 153 bets were placed but the result was pretty much a zero sum game. It did eventually rise to 5,562, but for all the time invested and work performed it was quite a frustrating experience.

From this point until the end of December, results were better and the ratcheting system helped the bank up to 13,792 units. But then another rough period started.

Nevertheless, it was worth it! A very long slog (47 weeks!) for a profit of 34,925 units. A great result vindicating the soundness of both the portfolio of bets and its staking plan.

Just as a side note, if you want to learn more about how the portfolio was originally compiled and how it performed in detail then you will find our report here: System Football Betting: 2017-18 Winter League Report – 35k in 138 Days

But let’s get back to the topic of the article: proper staking…

Image 1 showed you the performance of the portfolio using ratcheting, but if we would have applied a flat staking plan only (without ratcheting), then the Profit/Loss curve would have looked like this:

Image 2: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit Curve Flat Stakes

You can see straight away that the simple flat stakes (without ratcheting) also produces profits, but the curve is much flatter – here, the betting bank only increases from 4,000 units to 13,909 units. Flat staking lacks the exponential element of a ratcheting system to grow a bank, but on the other hand, it is much easier on the nerves as I will show you later in this article.

But first here are a few definitions…

What is Flat Staking?

Flat staking simply means that you wager on every bet exactly the same amount of money, without any deviations. But this may include some consideration towards the risk of each bet. You may therefore wish to stagger your stakes according to the implied probability (odds) of winning each bet:

• VERY SIMPLE: decide to stake a flat 100 units on every bet in the portfolio.
• SIMPLE: decide to stake a flat 100 units on bets with odds below 1.50, 50 units on bets with odds between 1.50 and 2.50, and so on.

But whichever of the two options you choose, you are in effect still ‘flat staking’.

What is Ratcheting?

Ratcheting is a progressive money management approach where the size of the stakes move by degrees, upward or downward, depending upon results.

(A) If your portfolio wins, increase the stakes!

With ratcheting the stakes are variable and depend on the size of the bank. However, the percentage of the ratchet (in our case 2.5%) always remains constant.

If at the end of a round of matches (or week) your bank has grown, all bets placed the following week should be adjusted to the higher bank.

For example, if the bank increases from 4,000 to 4,500, the stake increases from a flat 100 units to 112.50 per bet in the following round (i.e. stake remains at the base level set of 2.5% of bank).

The percentage of the bank used per bet stays ‘flat’.

(B) If your portfolio loses, reduce the stakes!

Nevertheless, you also need to guard against bankruptcy. If your portfolio experiences a losing round, reduce the stakes for each bet but not before the bank drops to 75% (or below) of its highest point.

You may think that this method is simply a stop-loss strategy, but it isn’t quite the same. I will explain further down in the article why we used 75% as the margin for our downwards ratcheting and not any other number.

Should you lose at the end of a round (week), continue to play each bet with the same, unchanged stake until the bank’s previous high has shrunk by 25%.

This means that in the event of a short-term loss, the stake continues to refer to the bank at the highest level it has reached so far and does not adjust to the lower bank until the bank has dropped to 75% of its peak size.

Only then is the stake recalculated (reduced) and the ratchet process begins again.

To be clear on this point, in the event of a run of losses, the stake size per bet always remains in relation to the highest bank to date and should not decrease until the threshold of 75% of highest bank ever is reached. (If you have for example, a very bad start to a campaign, the 75% trigger point may well apply to your starting bank).

Only then will the stakes be adjusted (reduced) to this lower bank size. This will then be your new starting bank. All further bets from then on refer to this bank and the ratcheting process begins again.

Example 1:

The bank drops from 4,000 to 3,800: The stakes remain unchanged, flat 100.00 (= 2.5% of the starting bank of 4,000) for the next period (round/ week).

After the next round the bank closes with 3,520. Still, the stakes remain unchanged, flat 100.00, using the previous bank of 4,000 for its calculations.

Only if the bank closes with under 3,000 (75% of 4,000) will the stake sizes be recalculated.


Example 2:

Using the starting bank from our previous example, the bank has dropped to 2,800. This has now become the new starting bank and the stake is recalculated:

2,800 x 2.5% = 70.00

With the reduction of over 75% of the bank from its former highest level of 4,000 (100 unit stakes) to 2,800, the stake size is recalibrated and remains flat at 70 units.

Afterwards, if the bank starts to rise, you will need to begin increasing the stakes again.

Say, after the next round you bank has gone up to 3,150.

3,150 x 2.5% = 78.75

The adjusted ‘new’ stake is now 78.75 and remains in place until either the bank drops to 75% of 3,150 (2,362) or the bank grows above 3,150, when stake amounts will be 2.5% of the new, larger bank size.

Flat Staking vs. Ratcheting

We have seen that ratcheting is purely a method of ‘flexible flat staking’ to encourage exponential bank growth.

The idea is to start off with stakes of 100 units and, if everything goes according to plan, by the end of the season the stake sizes should hopefully be in the multiples of 100 units.

Looking at the other side of the coin, the losses during this time will be in the same proportions, and not everyone is comfortable when losing a few thousand units in an afternoon, even if its ‘just winnings’ from previous rounds.

Bear this in mind before you decide to try ratcheting. Are you a disciplined person? Are you able to function when you have a few thousand riding on a few matches?

If your answer to these questions is ‘no’, then please do yourself a favour and stick to flat staking only! Do not try ratcheting, at least not to the end, and stop increasing your stakes when you reach the limits of your comfort zone (or have achieved target).

Bank Development during Rough Periods

Even the soundest portfolio of bets will experience bad periods where one bet after another (or even one round after another) is losing. It happened to us from the 09/12/2017 (2017 week 50) – 11/03/2018 (2018 week 11). Three months of more losing rounds than winning ones! Tough indeed!

Here are two images that show the profits/losses together with the bank development during this rough period using flat stakes versus ratcheting:

Image 3: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Using Flat Stakes only

Image 4: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Ratcheting the Stakes

Both staking plans produced profits but, to put the choppy ride into even better perspective, you will need to note that the results summarised in Image 4 were by this time already based on a ratcheted bet size of 344.80 units (as at 09/12/2017), and this has grown to 707.82 units by 11/03/2018.

The period spanned more than 15 weeks with nine losing rounds (60%). From the 23/12/2017 – 12/01/2018 there were many losses, not huge, but enough to be nerve-racking!

The biggest losing round of bets with flat staking was: – 578
The biggest losing round of bets with ratcheting was: – 4,091

Tough! This again highlights the difference in volatility between flat staking and ratcheting. Steel hearts only required here!

However:

The biggest profit round with flat staking was: 1,785
The biggest profit round with ratcheting was: 6,155

Great! But please don’t get carried away too much!

Moral #1: If you are a person that finds it challenging to keep emotions under control, stick to flat stakes! The best laid plans fall to pieces if you can’t cope during the really rough times.

It is always better to be a modest winner than a brave loser.

Emotional Rollercoaster when Winning or Losing

In the previous section you saw the monetary effects of winning and losing when using flat stakes only or when ratcheting. However, the differences become even more obvious if you look at the profits/losses in relation to the bank:

Image 5: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit/Losses in relation to the bank: Flat Stakes

When staking flat our example portfolio only produced a maximum loss of – 8.1 % of the bank. The winnings too were pretty ‘modest’: a maximum of 20.7%.

Ratcheting involves a far greater rollercoaster. The maximum loss was as high as – 15.2 % of the bank. The maximum winnings were: 52.6%.

Image 6: 2017-18 Winter League Campaign – Profit/Losses in relation to the bank: Ratcheting

Moral #2: As I have already said, simple flat stakes (without ratcheting) are much easier on the nerves than ratcheting. The exponential growth a ratcheting system produces goes hand-in hand with exponential losses.

Stop-Loss Margin when Ratcheting

In the article Bank Management & Stake Size I explained the ‘scientific’ calculation of the percentage of starting bank that should be used for betting.

It was based on the average of the three largest losing rounds (weeks):
12%, 15.2% and 14.6% >>> average: 13.9% (rounded: 14%).

We can use this figure of 14% to calculate the stop-loss margin. You see, everything is somehow connected. The stake size, the stop-loss margin, and much more.

To be able to sit through a run of at least two losing rounds in a row where the bank is depleted by 14% each time you need to calculate as follows:

86% x 86% = 73.96%

Let’s round this up to 75% to be more risk averse (safety conscious).

Hence, if your portfolio loses, reduce the stakes but not before the bank drops to 75%. It is very unlikely to happen but it may, you never know. By the way, our bank didn’t drop a single time below the 75% threshold during the Winter League 2017-18 Campaign.

Please bear in mind that all the calculations and explanations are based on a portfolio of just over 500 bets with an expected hit rate of around 50%. Should your portfolio be different (no two are alike), then you will need to carry out all the calculations using your own figures.

If you cannot calculate this for yourself in such great detail then either stick to the 75% threshold, or perhaps lower it to 65% (if you have a lower risk aversion) as advised in previous articles.

Moral #3: Better to be safe than sorry. If you are new to ratcheting it’s probably better if you play with smaller stakes than the calculations actually permit (e.g. 1.5% of your betting bank instead of 2.5%) then you won’t reach the stop-loss margin too quickly.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this article and learned something about sound staking and ratcheting. However, if you are still unsure on any point, please feel free to ask any questions via the comment section below.

Towards the end of this summary article, we also discuss the statistical evidence of the lockdown effects as matches continue to be played without fans.

The Systems Employed

For the purposes of this test nine systems were selected across four leagues in close geographical proximity to one another.

Please note that it is normally our mandate when selecting systems for real-play portfolios only to pick the best single system in a league (e.g. whole-of-season or first half-season or second half-season), or best two systems (first half-season and second half-season).

However, for the purposes of this live simulation, we trialled a number of different first half-season systems from the four leagues. This was done because the choice of leagues in which to generate bets for this experiment was extremely limited at the time the simulation began.

Immediately below you will find screenshots taken from the actual 2020 Summer League HDAFU Tables showing each system in detail. The systems were determined after scrutinising the profit/loss curves shown in the dedicated ‘Inflection Points by HO/AO quotient’ tab in these tables. (Home Odds divided by Away Odds).

(Clicking on all of the images below enlarges them in a new tab):

HDAFU Table Finland Veikkausliiga: 2x Draw Systems

Note that although the draw odds of these two systems overlap, it is important to understand that they apply to two separate tranches of games (i.e. the HO/AO quotients do not overlap). System (a) represents smaller quotients indicative of games involving short-priced home favourites. System (b) applies to quotients above 1 indicating games where the away team is the shorter-priced favourite. All nine of the systems in this simulation are non-overlapping to provide stand-alone comparisons.

HDAFU Table Screenshots – Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 1x Draw & 1x Favourite System

HDAFU Table Screenshots – Norway Eliteserien: 1x Draw, 1x Favourite System & 1x Home Win System

HDAFU Table Screenshots – Sweden Allsvenskan: 1x Draw & 1x Favourite System

Results of the 2020 ‘Live’ HDAFU Tables Trial

Profit Loss Curve

The graph below shows the final profit/loss curve after 44 rounds of betting (i.e. separate days) comprising a total of 129 bets:

HDAFU Tables – Summer Leagues 2020 Live Simulation: Bank Development

If you were following our live picks on a daily basis you will remember that on August the 3rd, after 26 betting rounds (91 bets), we decided to cut two systems from the draft and monitor instead the results from the favourite win systems in Iceland and Sweden – both were underperforming badly and stood little or no chance of recovering into profit taking into consideration the likely number of remaining expected bets.

The 129 picks therefore included bets in both of these systems up to and including the 2nd of August but no further.

System-by-System Analysis

HDAFU Tables – Live Simulation: 1X2 Portfolio Analysis

What do the results of this live picks simulation tell us?

In truth, not much, but it does prove that a profit can be made in a live environment from selecting systems based upon past-performance using the HDAFU Tables. As stated above we would never have chosen to play for real multiple first half-season systems in the same league – Always stick to the single best historical performer and construct portfolios based around these top performers in each of the leagues of your choice.

Although hindsight is a flexible tool, choosing just one system from each of the four leagues would have been relatively easy as the best four stood out markedly from the rest:

• FINLAND: Draw system at and between HO/AO quotients of 0.405 & 0.543. The corresponding draw odds between 3.39 and 3.60 were a less risky bet than the wider odds range of the other draw system. In other words, the system we would have played contained games that were more homogeneous (consistent) with each other.
• ICELAND: Draw system at and between HO/AO quotients of 0.152 & 0.33. The corresponding draw odds here were between 4.11 and 5.26. Again, it was considered to be a more consistent set of bets than the other system, which relied on choosing home or away favourites – literally two systems in one.
• NORWAY: Favourite system at and between HO/AO quotients of 0.445 & 0.67, corresponding to odds between 1.90 and 2.22. We would have picked this over the home win system option purely because the favourites were all going to be the home team anyway (HO/AO quotient below 1): the home win system option was more risky and wholly represented by underdogs at home. The historical profits shown in the analysis for the favourite were also more recent than those posted by the third option, the draw system.
• SWEDEN: Draw system at and between HO/AO quotients of 0.383 & 0.904 (corresponding draw odds 3.45 to 3.76). This was a far better set of historical data than betting on the favourite showed. Profits for the draw system were present in each of the previous five seasons and three times larger than those for the favourite system.

These four systems on their own (three winners and one loser) would have netted an overall profit of 556.66 units.

Coronavirus Effects on Home Performance

The four leagues chosen were all Nordic countries to provide some form of meaningful comparison.

Finland and Norway produced 1X2 results much in line with previous seasons but, in both leagues, the draw percentage was a little down and the away win was slightly up. But nothing statistically significant enough to say that playing with no crowds has affected the trends:

Finland & Norway: First Half-Season 1X2 Results Comparison

However, in Iceland and Sweden, the picture was different:

Iceland & Sweden: First Half-Season 1X2 Results Comparison

In both leagues, it is quite clear to see that home wins have dropped significantly, with draws and away wins increasing in frequency as a result.

Although it is too early to draw conclusions after just half a season, this is a situation that suggests monitoring and will perhaps be the subject of a follow-up article if trends continue in this manner.

Get the Analysis Spreadsheet!

If you would like the accompanying Excel spreadsheet (541Kb) for this article please click on the button below. It is priced at £9.99 and includes a host of useful formulas including the Excel logarithm formula to calculate the expected Longest Losing Streak once the expected hit-rate is known. Other analyses included:

• Full, country-by-country breakdown of each system and its performance
• First half-season Home, Draw and Away result comparison with previous five seasons
• Charts, graphs and tables representing the final results
• Template for identifying the bets, which can be tailored to your own requirements
• The usual array of Excel formulas for your own system selection purposes including monitoring
• …and much, much more!

HDAFU Table Discount Offer

In addition, you will receive a lifetime discount code with your product delivery note providing £35.00 off of any purchase of three or four HDAFU Tables (i.e. bridging the gap to the previous minimum five-table discount code). If you want a gentle introduction to the world of HDAFU Tables, or wish to target your leagues in smaller bundles, then this offer is for you!

Click here to get your Analysis Spreadsheet:

>>> 2020 HDAFU coronavirus test excel spreadsheet <<<


(Then click on the green Checkout button, fill in your name/email address details, submit your order and pay securely with PayPal or a credit card. A download link will then be sent to your email address. Check your junk mail if it doesn’t arrive in your inbox immediately).



Important Guidance on Picking Systems from a League

Despite choosing multiple systems from the four leagues for the purposes of the live test, our guidance for compiling a 1X2 portfolio from the HDAFU Tables remains unchanged: when selecting (i) a first half-season system and/or a second half-season system or (ii) a whole-of-season system, choose only one option from each league.

Choosing both a first half and second half-season system in the same league is completely viable (i.e. two systems in a single league), but don’t mix and match by implementing a whole-of-season system plus a first and/or second half system or multiples of any of these types in the same league:

HDAFU Tables: Viable Combinations of Chosen Systems in Any One League – One Tick = One System




]]> https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/results-of-our-2020-summer-league-hdafu-tables-real-time-test/feed/ 2 https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/2020-summer-league-hdafu-tables-coronavirus-trial-live-picks/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/2020-summer-league-hdafu-tables-coronavirus-trial-live-picks/#comments Wed, 05 Aug 2020 04:02:31 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6718 more »]]> This article will be updated at least once a day until the first halves of the league seasons highlighted finish. Clear your browser cache and then press the F5 key to refresh.



Live Simulation: Nine HDAFU Systems in Four Leagues

Many of you are asking what effects coronavirus is having on football betting. Whilst we envisage that the disruptions caused will not have any noticeable change on long-term statistical trends, it is impossible to say with any certainty what will happen in these unprecedented times.

Therefore, we have decided to carry out a very public experiment using 1X2 systems taken from our most recent set of HDAFU Tables – those for the 2020 Summer Leagues, limited to four leagues that will hopefully play out the entirety of their seasons, albeit a little late in starting (or restarting).

We will publish the picks a day or so in advance and keep you abreast of progress. We have decided to suspend our own betting for the time being, so this exercise will be purely a simulation with a ratcheted staking plan in operation and is for first-half-of-season systems only.

The four leagues are:

• Finland Veikkausliiga (2x draw systems)
• Iceland Úrvalsdeild (AKA Pepsideild) (1x draw system; 1x favourite win system)
• Norway Eliteserien (1x draw system; 1x home win system; 1x favourite win system)
• Sweden Allsvenskan (1x draw system; 1x favourite system)

Portfolio Expectations

• Portfolio Probability = Hit Rate 47.07%
• Mathematical Advantage (Expected Yield) = 27.61%

This collection of nine systems, therefore, represents a MEDIUM-RISK portfolio



Two Different Approaches:

1X2 HDAFU Profit/Loss Curve Betting & Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Cluster Table Betting

In tandem with this HDAFU test, we are doing the same with our Cluster Tables in four Winter Leagues that are due to finish at the beginning of August. Picks will be published daily and will appear on our German-language sister site, Fussballwitwe.de. Don’t understand German? then try Google auto-translation into English here.

In short, both are value betting systems, but with different methods.

1X2 bets are system bets: you choose a system and place the bet whenever the selected criterion fits – in this case, the quotient arrived at by dividing the current home odds by the corresponding away odds.

Over/Under bets are based on calculating the betting odds for each game (according to the historical statistics over the five preceding seasons) and placing the bet where there is value. Here, we will consciously choose the bets according to probabilities as well as their profitability/yield potential. (Over/Under course readers will know what I am talking about here!)

The 1X2 bets are much easier to play; you make the selection criteria once (i.e. formulate the system at the beginning), using the historical information and profit curves contained in our HDAFU Tables. These also provide a risk assessment and simulation of how future betting expectations might go. Once the parameters of each system are known, it only takes a short time to find the appropriate bets for each game round. However, good value usually lies only in low probability bets (longer odds such as the draw, or underdog win), and, therefore, it is a better idea to mix these selections with higher probability bets (favourite wins), to avoid long losing streaks.

With Over/Under betting you can decide which probabilities you want to play depending on your personal risk attitude. Higher probabilities = lower risk of losing the bet = easier for the nerves. The challenge here, however, is that in order to gain this extra level of precision you have to calculate each individual game individually.



Slideshow of Value Betting Picks

The picks for the respective day will appear here around noon/13.00 GMT +1, including the results from the previous day.

Please click on the arrows at either end to scroll through and view the entire history of the picks.

Hover over the table with your cursor for pop-up day-to-day notes.


Day 057
Picks & Results: August 26th, 2020




Day 055
Picks & Results: August 24th, 2020




Day 054
Picks & Results: August 23rd, 2020




Day 053
Picks & Results: August 22nd, 2020




Day 052
Picks & Results: August 21st, 2020




Day 049
Picks & Results: August 18th, 2020




Day 048
Picks & Results: August 17th, 2020




Day 047
Picks & Results: August 16th, 2020




Day 046
Picks & Results: August 15th, 2020




Day 045
Picks & Results: August 14th, 2020




Day 044
Picks & Results: August 13th, 2020




Day 043
Picks & Results: August 12th, 2020




Day 041
Picks & Results: August 10th, 2020




Day 040
Picks & Results: August 9th, 2020




Day 039
Picks & Results: August 8th, 2020




Day 037
Picks & Results: August 6th, 2020




Day 036
Picks & Results: August 5th, 2020




Day 034
Picks & Results: August 3rd, 2020




Day 033
Picks & Results: August 2nd, 2020 - W36 L55 = 39.56% hit rate




Day 032
Picks & Results: August 1st, 2020 - W33 L53 = 38.37% hit rate




Day 030
Picks & Results: July 30th, 2020 - W32 L50 = 39.02% hit rate




Day 029
Picks & Results: July 29th, 2020 - W31 L50 = 38.27% hit rate




Day 027
Picks & Results: July 27th, 2020 - W30 L46 = 39.47% hit rate




Day 026
Picks & Results: July 26th, 2020 - W27 L45 = 37.50% hit rate




Day 025
Picks & Results: July 25th, 2020 - W22 L43 = 33.85% hit rate




Day 023
Picks & Results: July 23rd, 2020 - W21 L43 = 32.81% hit rate




Day 022
Picks & Results: July 22nd, 2020 - W19 L41 = 31.67% hit rate




Day 021
Picks & Results: July 21st, 2020 - W17 L38 = 30.91% hit rate




Day 019
Picks & Results: July 18th, 2020 - W16 L38 = 29.63% hit rate




Day 018
Picks & Results: July 18th, 2020 - W12 L35 = 25.53% hit rate




Day 017
Picks & Results: July 17th, 2020 - W12 L34 = 26.09% hit rate




Day 016
Picks & Results: July 16th, 2020 - W11 L31 = 26.19% hit rate




Day 015
Picks & Results: July 15th, 2020 - W10 L30 = 25.00% hit rate




Day 013
Picks & Results: July 13th, 2020 - W9 L29 = 23.68% hit rate




Day 012
Picks & Results: July 12th, 2020 - W8 L26 = 23.53% hit rate




Day 011
Picks & Results: July 11th, 2020 - W8 L22 = 26.67% hit rate




Day 008
Picks & Results: July 8th, 2020 - W8 L20 = 28.57% hit rate




Day 007
Picks & Results: July 7th, 2020 - W7 L18 = 28.00% hit rate




Day 006
Picks & Results: July 6th, 2020 - W7 L17 = 29.17% hit rate




Day 005
Picks & Results: July 5th, 2020 - W6 L16 = 27.27% hit rate




Day 004
Picks & Results: July 4th, 2020 - W6 L10 = 37.50% hit rate




Day 003
Picks & Results: July 3rd, 2020 - W4 L9 = 30.77% hit rate




Day 002
Picks & Results: July 2nd, 2020 - W4 L8 = Hit Rate 33.33%




Day 001
Picks & Results: July 1st, 2020 = 36.36% hit rate




Note: Following the interim report detailed in our report after 91 picks, two systems have been dropped (Sweden favourite win; Iceland favourite win) and are shown from Round 27 (August 3rd) for monitoring purposes only.

Want this slideshow larger? Either hold down the ctrl key on your keyboard and press the + (plus) key until you reach a comfortable size. (Afterwards, hold ctrl and press the − (minus) key to reduce your view). Alternatively, with a scroll wheel mouse, hold down the ctrl key on your keyboard and push the scroll wheel forwards. Hold ctrl and reverse the direction of the scroll wheel to reduce the view. The URL bar at the top of your screen will guide you in returning to 100% normal size.



Staking Plan

The starting bank is 3,000 units and the basis for calculating the stakes is as follows:

• Odds below 1.10: 5% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 1.10 – 1.16: 4% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 1.16 – 1.39: 3.8% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 1.40 – 2.25: 2.5% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds between 2.26 – 7.50: 1.5% of highest bank achieved*
• Odds over 7.50: 0.5% of highest bank achieved*

This is the same staking plan used by the counterpart Cluster Tables experiment, but you should note that the chosen HDAFU systems are likely to utilise only the three lines highlighted as all odds satisfying our criteria will be 1.30 or over and will never exceed 7.50.

Not only will the stakes be scaled according to risk, but a ratchet system* will also be employed. Stakes will begin based on the starting bank of 3,000 units and will continue to be so until there is an increase in the bank after a day’s games. Thereafter, it will be calculated based on the highest end-of-day bank total achieved (even if the actual bank drops below 3,000 units in future). Only if the starting bank reduces by 40% will the stakes be scaled back. (i.e. A stop-loss mechanism is activated if the bank falls below 1,800 units).

N.B. All stake calculations will be rounded-up to the nearest whole unit (e.g. 77.19 becomes 78).



Duration of Experiment

As mentioned, we will be running the HDAFU 1X2 systems calibrated for the first half of the season only in each of the selected four leagues, starting on the 1st of July, 2020.

Picks will appear in our slideshow until the midway point of each league is reached.

At this stage, with the coronavirus interruptions, no certain dates have yet been confirmed as to when each league will reach its natural break (if indeed there is one), but we will advise in advance of each system drawing to its conclusion.



Final Whistle

We have no idea how things like the lack of a crowd, the apparent nullification of home advantage, players being able to hear instructions shouted between themselves and from the sidelines, referees no longer being mobbed over their decisions by over-enthusiastic and supporter-conscious players, lack of fitness, or psychological factors, will affect the game we all know and love.

It is safe to say that we are as much in the dark as you are concerning the future of football and sports betting.

The unknowns are too many to take great risks and, as stated previously, we are not chancing our money on these picks – the systems we are using together form a ‘live’ experiment based on our previously successful HDAFU Tables and Cluster Tables.

If you wish to play these picks yourself, then please do so with money you can afford to lose and try to stick to our stake recommendations.

Let’s hope for something to cheer us all up during these very strange times!

]]> https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/2020-summer-league-hdafu-tables-coronavirus-trial-live-picks/feed/ 3 https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/interim-report-after-91-picks-26-betting-rounds-hdafu-tables/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/interim-report-after-91-picks-26-betting-rounds-hdafu-tables/#comments Tue, 04 Aug 2020 12:11:56 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6847 more »]]> 2020 Summer League HDAFU Tables: Coronavirus Trial – ‘Live’ Picks

Since the 1st July, we have been running a live picks experiment using systems selected from our HDAFU Tables to see if Covid-19 is affecting results one way or another.

As of Sunday, 2nd August 2020, a total of 91 picks had been published in advance of kick-off times in four different ‘summer’ leagues.

The HDAFU systems chosen are all 1st half-season systems only, with the experiment due to finish on the 26th of August when the latest scheduled of these, the Finnish Veikkausliiga, reaches its midway point.

The four leagues are:

• Finland Veikkausliiga (2x draw systems)
• Iceland Úrvalsdeild ~ AKA Pepsideild (1x draw system; 1x favourite win system)
• Norway Eliteserien (1x draw system; 1x home win system; 1x favourite win system)
• Sweden Allsvenskan (1x draw system; 1x favourite system)

Expectations for the portfolio as a whole were as follows:-

Portfolio Probability = Hit Rate 47.07%
Mathematical Advantage (Expected Yield) = 27.61%
Total number of bets expected until the end of the 1st halves in each season = 196

So far, from the expected number of 196 bets, 91 have been played (46.4%), with 36 winning (hit rate: 39.6%). The hit rate is minus 6.9% of expectations. Later in this article, we will see if we can identify a culprit (or culprits) in our chosen systems.



Betting Bank Development

The Portfolio Probability or average expected hit rate was 47.07%. This probability is very close to throwing a dice (i.e. 50/50) and, as with a dice roll, an element of luck is required to see your choice of heads or tails coming up more often than not.

Unfortunately, luck was not on our side as the experiment developed…

It did have a promising start and grew from 3,000.00 units (starting bank) to 3,213.54 units in the first four days before diving into a long run of unprofitable rounds. This illustrated in the following graph showing the running total:



After day four, the portfolio saw a losing streak of 11 betting rounds (rounds 5 to 15: July 5th to July 18th, 2020) taking the bank down to its lowest point of 2,177.79 units (67.8% of the highest bank), almost activating our Stop-Loss mechanism (set at 60% of starting bank), where stakes would have been reduced on future bets.

The ratchet system we used kept the stakes constant using the high-water mark of 3,213.65 units (i.e. highest point the bank reached) as the gauge against which to calculate our exposure on each bet. Read here for more explanations of what a ratcheted staking plan actually is: Sound Staking: Flat Stakes & Ratcheting

The ratcheting method of staking helped the bank to recover faster as soon as results once again began to go our way – it is now, after a truly bumpy ride, at a new high of 3,282.73.

Lesson #1: For those who use the HDAFU Tables for betting, sit tight and give yourself a chance! Do not give up too quickly! Continue religiously choosing the picks according to the criteria you set when choosing your systems. More often than not, your bank will eventually recover.

Always remember: You are playing statistics that behave randomly; your luck may come in big chunks of good or bad, or may be more regularly distributed.




System Performance Review

Of course, with the deep trough at the start of our portfolio, we went digging to see what may have been the root cause.

You can see in the graph below the nine different systems and the number of bets played as at August 2nd, 2020: e.g. Finland Draw (II) had 11 bets played at this date. The graph also compares the expected hit rates and the observed hit rates of each system.



Most of the systems have, after 26 betting rounds, achieved their expected hit rates.

The systems that have developed hit rates far below expectations are:-

• Sweden Allsvenskan: Favourite system
• Iceland Úrvalsdeild: Draw system & Favourite system

Below is a graph showing the Profit/Loss made by all nine systems after 26 match days:



As you can see from looking just at the observed hit rates, the ‘Favourite Win’ systems of Sweden and Iceland are producing deficits.

The Draw system in Iceland isn’t doing as bad and may even recover. But, we must be careful as the originally expected hit rate was low at 37.7% and from 11 expected bets five of these have already been played.

The main culprits that seem to be affecting the portfolio as a whole are obviously the ‘Favourite Win’ systems in Sweden and Iceland.

Nevertheless, it is too early to conclude that Covid-19 is affecting these systems, although it would be easy to associate the lack of crowds and thus, reduced home advantage, with the failure of these home win dominated systems. After all, the Norway ‘Favourite Win’ system is performing quite well.

To shuffle the pack, we will remove the two losing systems from our running total calculations and separate them from the other picks so we can monitor their progress in isolation. If you are following our Sweden and Iceland favourites with real money then perhaps hold fire for the time being and stick to the other seven systems.

Lesson #2: For those who use the HDAFU Tables for betting, review your systems once per month (or at least after every 100 bets)!

If you have obvious duds bringing the house down, don’t be afraid to remove them from your betting portfolio.

Of course, you can, if you wish, try to replace the losing systems with other systems. It doesn’t matter if you start and stop a system during the middle of any season: Starting or Pausing Your 1X2 Portfolio in the Middle of a Season

]]> https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/interim-report-after-91-picks-26-betting-rounds-hdafu-tables/feed/ 3 https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/2019-summer-league-hdafu-tables-campaign-report-8k-in-288-days/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/2019-summer-league-hdafu-tables-campaign-report-8k-in-288-days/#respond Sat, 13 Jun 2020 13:09:00 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6611 more »]]> The best test of any theory is always how it works in practice:

Below is the full account of our FT 1X2 results campaign for the 2019 ‘Summer Leagues’ based around Soccerwidow’s HDAFU ~ Home – Draw – Away – Favourite – Underdog Tables.

419 bets in 288 days = min. £8,433 profit from £100 unit flat stakes
The final profit curve for the 2019 Summer League Campaign (comprising all 419 bets) is shown below:
2019 Summer League Campaign Profit Curve

 
The systems employed in each league were all picked based on observations of the profit curves produced from the accumulated data (match odds and results) of the previous five complete seasons.

Read on to find out exactly how and why we picked the systems we did…



Campaign Report 2019 Summer Leagues

If you would like the accompaniment for this article please click on the button below to get your FREE 2019 Summer League Campaign spreadsheet, which pares down each system to individual match detail.

>>> 2019 summer league campaign <<<


(Then click on the green Checkout button, fill in your name/email address details and press Submit Order. A download link will then be sent to your email address – and it won’t cost you a penny! Check your junk mail if it doesn’t arrive in your inbox immediately).



How the Systems Were Chosen

Our long-held tried and tested method is to use the HO/AO quotient (i.e. the figure derived from dividing the home odds by the away odds) as the most reliable benchmark for categorising an individual match and allow comparisons or groupings with others.

Employing the quotients of all matches in a league over the previous five complete seasons provides a significant data set with which to carry out in-depth analyses.

Then, by producing graphs for each of the Home-Draw-Away-Favourite-Underdog results, it is easy to visualise betting results and trends.

Constructing a balanced portfolio of ‘systems’ in our chosen leagues is then just a matter of identifying and choosing historically lucrative segments of the profit curves upon which to target our bets in the forthcoming season.

For the purposes of diversification, we chose two systems for each league: one representing the 1st half of the season and the other for the 2nd half of the season.

In all of the leagues summarised below, you will see images taken directly from the 2019 HDAFU tables. (Containing the data from the five seasons prior: from 2014 to 2018)

When deciding upon which segment of the profit/loss curves to choose as our systems in each league, we compared the relevant 1st and 2nd half-season graphs (i.e. representing half of the data set in each case) with that representing the Whole Season (the whole of the data set).

If the segment of interest in, say, the 1st half-season graph was mirrored to some degree in the Whole Season analysis, then it was considered more likely to be influential on the whole-of-season picture. Ditto with the 2nd half-season.

In almost every case, you will see visual similarities between the chosen half-season system and the whole-of-season graph, whereas the graph belonging to the other half of the season is usually very different.

However, in a few examples, the chosen segment of the graph is mirrored in all three graphs (1st, 2nd and Whole-of-season), making it even more likely that the chosen system for the future had a significant influence on the historical picture across the previous five seasons.



Judgment of Risk

You will find a Risk Table (Image 8) and explanatory commentary in our dedicated risk judgment article.



League-by-League Breakdown

In alphabetical order…



League 01) Brazil: Série A

System 1 – 1st Half: Away Win
High-risk

Here, the visually similar peaks in the profit curves between the 1st half and whole-of-season graphs were indicative of a potentially lucrative system:

(Clicking on all of the images below enlarges them in a new tab):



Brazil Série A: 1st Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs


The beginning and end of the peak in the 1st half-season graph corresponded with HO/AO quotients between 0.104 and 0.167. These points have also been marked in the whole-of-season graph alongside to show how similar these two graphs look. This is a high-risk system with odds between around 9.00 and 16.50 (top row label).

By comparison, the 2nd half-season graph looks very different:



Brazil Série A: 2nd Half-Season Away Win Graph


As you can see, there is a similar peak towards the left-hand side of the 2nd half graph, but it corresponds to odds of around 6.00 to 8.00.

Between odds of 6.00 and 8.00 in the whole-of-season graph above is a less definite picture containing peaks and troughs of ‘statistical noise’.

To conclude, the 1st half-season system of choosing away wins between HO/AO quotients of 0.104 and 0.167 seems to be more influential on the overall picture in this league.


RESULT

In our campaign from 28/04 to 15/09/2019, there was a total of 17 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 15 of these bets lost and only two won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 8.45 to 12.39.

However, the two bets that won were sufficiently high priced to earn this system a profit.

Profit: £366.00

Running Total: £366.00



System 2 – 2nd Half: Home Win
High-risk



Brazil Série A: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs


Hopefully, these graphs are now self-explanatory. Once again, the section of the profit curve peaking in the 2nd half-season graph in Brazil is mirrored in the whole-of-season graph alongside it.

And again, the 1st half-season graph looks very different:



Brazil Série A: 1st Half-Season Home Win Graph


Our chosen system incorporates HO/AO quotients between 1.157 and 1,607, which correspond to odds of around 2.95 to 3.50.

In the 1st half graph, this area does show an incline but it represents a gain of fewer than 1,000 units.

By comparison, the 2nd half-season system employed spanned a gain of 2,500 units in the previous five seasons. (Between 2,930 and 5,412 units)

The equivalent whole-of-season graph shows a gain of 3,400 units. (Between 3,979 and 7,394 units)

RESULT

In our campaign from 22/09 to 01/12/2019, there was a total of 13 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Seven of these bets lost and six won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.01 to 3.45.

Profit: £588.00

Running Total: £954.00




League 02) China: Super League

System 3 – 1st Half: Away Win
Low-risk



China Super League: 1st Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs


There weren’t many similarities between the 1st half and whole-of-season graphs in China and only the very tail of the profit curve seemed to be an acceptable match.

But, the away win selections highlighted in the chosen quotient of 3.332 to 15.175 were all odds-on favourites between around 1.20 and 1.80.

The 2nd half-season graph did not show anything as pronounced in this area.



China Super League: 2nd Half-Season Away Win Graph


As you can see from the labels shown on the combined graphs above the five-season profit figure in this HO/AO zone totalled only 500-600 units.

We knew from the outset that we wouldn’t be playing for massive gains with this 1st half system.

But, when there is little else to find in the analysis, choosing a low-risk system or a home-win or a favourite-based system are the prudent choices.


RESULT

In our campaign from 30/03 to 30/06/2019, there was a total of six bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Two of these bets lost and four won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 1.37 to 1.60.

Profit: £21.00

Running Total: £975.00



System 4 – 2nd Half: Draw
High-risk



China Super League: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


Here, the whole-of-season graph showed a massive historical profit exceeding 9,000 units over five seasons between the chosen quotients of 0.455 and 0.988. (the closest mark of 0.451 is shown on this graph owing to the shortcomings of Excel graphs)

Looking at the 1st half-season graph it was evident that the draw in the second half of the Chinese season showed the stronger trendline.



China Super League: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph


Odds for the draw between the chosen quotients were roughly 3.30 to 4.30.

The upper quotient wasn’t extended further: it could have been taken to the next and final peak of around 1.07.

However, it was decided that the final peak represented diminishing returns for a higher risk.

On the 2nd half-season graph you can see before the last peak after 0.988 was a trough of roughly equal size. Therefore, the chances of increasing the profit beyond the 0.988 parameters were roughly 50/50 (i.e. ‘heads’ and the bottom line increases; ‘tails’ and it reduces – this snakes-and-ladders game wasn’t worth playing).

RESULT

In our campaign from 06/07 to 27/11/2019, there was a total of 26 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 18 of these bets lost and eight won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.32 to 4.29.

Profit: £355.00

Running Total: £1,330.00




League 03) Finland: Veikkausliiga

System 5 – 1st Half: Draw
High-risk



Finland Veikkausliiga: 1st Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


The nice peak showing on the 1st half-season graph between quotients of 0.443 and 0.522 was mirrored well in the whole-of-season graph.

It may seem paradoxical that this part of the curve appears below the profit line in the graph (i.e. in the ‘red’) but as you can see the curve begins around -5,000 units and climbs to around -2,000 units, meaning the results in this sector are combining to create a profit of around +3,000 units (i.e. an improvement from -5,000 to -2,000).

The 2nd half-season graph was again very different.



Finland Veikkausliiga: 2nd Half-Season Draw Graph


A second possibility was the peak on the right-hand side of both curves in the double-image above between the quotients of 2.802 and 8.911.

But, as you can see from the odds label at the top of these graphs, a system in this zone would involve backing draws at considerably longer odds (i.e. a far higher risk system), and with only 2,000 units profit made in the previous five seasons.




RESULT

In our campaign from 03/04 to 19/06/2019, there was a total of five bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Four of these bets lost and only one won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.33 to 3.63.

Loss: -£137.00

Running Total: £1,193.00



System 6 – 2nd Half: Favourite
High-risk



Finland Veikkausliiga: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Favourite Win Combined Graphs


There was a lot of statistical noise in the 2nd half-season graph and only one peak of any interest.

The 1st half-season graph showed once again what huge differences exist between the 1st and 2nd halves of league seasons as far as match results and odds are concerned.



Finland Veikkausliiga: 1st Half-Season Favourite Win Graph


The five-season profit was around 1,700 units between the chosen quotients of 0.694 and 0.790.

Dividing this by five to give a seasonal expectation meant that nothing spectacular could be expected from this system.

However, the favourites alluded to would all be home favourites between odds of 2.30 and 2.45 meaning that a profit would be secured even if there were an equal number of winning and losing bets.


RESULT

In our campaign from 27/07 to 19/10/2019, there was a total of four bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Two of these bets lost and two won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.33 to 2.43.

Profit: £68.00

Running Total: £1,261.00




League 04) Iceland: Úrvalsdeild

System 7 – 1st Half: Home Win
Medium-risk



Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 1st Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs


Another couple of similar-looking graphs, both strikingly different from the 2nd half-season results.


Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 2nd Half-Season Home Win Graph


The chosen quotients of 0.527 and 0.929 (0.515 being the nearest point available on the whole-of-season graph) targeted a tranche of home favourites.

The home odds for these bets were likely to be between around 2.00 and 2.60.

Dividing the five-season profit figure of the proposed system produced an expectation of just 400 units profit per season.



RESULT

In our campaign from 27/04 to 06/07/2019, there was a total of 18 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Seven of these bets lost and 11 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.09 to 2.56.

Profit: £668.00

Running Total: £1,929.00



System 8 – 2nd Half: Draw
High-risk



Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


The selected portion of the graph is around 40% the length of the whole, so we can expect to bet on around 40% of matches (25-26 games) during the second half of the season.

Once again, the 1st half-season graph bears little resemblance.



Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph


The quotients between 1.108 and 4.304 inclusive are aimed at draws carrying odds between 3.35 and 4.75.

In all cases, the away team will be the favourite to win the match.

Expectations are higher than the 1st half-season home win system (here, around 700 units per season on average) but, with higher rewards on offer, the risks are also greater.



RESULT

In our campaign from 13/07 to 22/09/2019, there was a total of 20 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 14 of these bets lost and six won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.44 to 4.21.

Profit: £188.00

Running Total: £2,117.00




League 05) Ireland: Premier League

System 9 – 1st Half: Home Win
High-risk



Ireland Premier League: 1st Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs


Another two similar-looking graphs – note a similar rising curve at the same points in the 2nd half-season picture, which adds promise to this system.


Ireland Premier League: 2nd Half-Season Home Win Graph


Here, we are looking at quotients spanning 1.448 and 2.584.

This places the home win bets in a zone of odds between around 3.40 and 5.00: In other words, every bet we make will be on a home underdog to win.

The rewards are not great (around 500 units per season on average), but there is little else to aim in the 1st half of the season in this league.

It may be high-risk, but the consolation is that it is also a home-win-based system.

RESULT

In our campaign from 22/02 to 18/05/2019, there was a total of 15 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 11 of these bets lost and four won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.42 to 4.81.

Profit: £158.00

Running Total: £2,275.00



System 10 – 2nd Half: Away Win
High-risk



Ireland Premier League: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs


The curve beginning near to 0.204 and peaking around 0.233 looks more appealing than the one we chose, but remember that the more vertical the peak, the fewer bets will be involved. It can also be the sign of an anomaly created by one or two out-of-kilter results. Hence why gentler upward peaks from left to right are usually a far better bet.

The 1st half-season picture contains a similar shallow rise towards the right-hand side of the profit curve but, like the other two graphs, this is in a zone where odds-on favourites are winning very small increments to the bottom line (amounts which are barely worth the work involved).



Ireland Premier League: 1st Half-Season Away Win Graph


The chosen quotients of 0.398 and 0.738 contain a zone of away odds between around 3.15 and 4.75.

All of our bets will, therefore, be backing away underdogs to win.

Remembering the more vertical spike from earlier, you will see the odds there are far higher (between around 6.80 and 7.50). At these odds, it would only take one or two anomalous results to produce a misleading peak of this nature.


RESULT

In our campaign from 31/05 to 22/10/2019, there was a total of 12 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Eight of these bets lost and four won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.25 to 4.54.

Profit: £434.00

Running Total: £2,709.00




League 06) Japan: J-League 1

System 11 – 1st Half: Away Win
Medium-risk



Japan J-League 1: 1st Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs


The five-season 1st half picture suggests an average of 1,000 units on offer per season for the chosen system of quotients between 0.695 and 1.015.

The 2nd half-season image suggests a reversal of fortunes between these marks.



Japan J-League 1: 2nd Half-Season Away Win Graph


In terms of odds, most of the bets we are expecting to place will be away underdogs.

However, those over 1.000 (before 1.015) will be slight favourites to win.

Looking at the 1st half-season image, the odds range of our bet placements is likely to be between around 2.60 and 3.40.

It is worth noting that Japan always seems to contain an away win system in one half of the season or the other.


RESULT

In our campaign from 23/02 to 30/06/2019, there was a total of 42 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 25 of these bets lost and 17 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.60 to 3.41.

Profit: £705.00

Running Total: £3,414.00



System 12 – 2nd Half: Draw
High-risk



Japan J-League 1: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


The peak that was chosen as the 2nd half-season system also appears in the 1st half-season image.


Japan J-League 1: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph


Here, the quotients of 0.189 and 0.328 (0.331 the closest available point in the whole-of-season graph) indicate odds in the region of 3.75 to 5.50.

And, at this end of the scale, the matches included were likely to be between odds-on home favourites and longer-priced away underdogs.

But the fact the peak in the profit curve showed in both the 1st and 2nd half-season graphs was indicative of a good chance of repeated profits from this zone.


RESULT

In our campaign from 07/07 to 07/12/2019, there was a total of 12 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Eight of these bets lost and four won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.72 to 5.36.

Profit: £445.00

Running Total: £3,859.00




League 07) Norway: Eliteserien

System 13 – 1st Half: Home Win
Medium-risk



Norway Eliteserien: 1st Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs


Despite a lot of statistical noise in the two graphs above, the zone chosen suggested a similar return from both: a five-season haul of around 2,000 units, or 400 on average per season.

The 2nd half-season graph suggested half the size of reward between the same quotient points.



Norway Eliteserien: 2nd Half-Season Home Win Graph


The quotients of 1.019 and 2.133 suggested home wins in the region of odds between 2.70 and just above 4.00.

In reality, every bet would be backing a home underdog, although not a great distance apart from the away favourite odds.

The profit curve for the 1st half-season contains many jagged peaks and troughs and, at these odds, it was expected that more bets would lose than would win.


RESULT

In our campaign from 31/03 to 15/07/2019, there was a total of 29 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 18 of these bets lost and 11 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.74 to 4.11.

Profit: £778.00

Running Total: £4,637.00



System 14 – 2nd Half: Away Win
High-risk



Norway Eliteserien: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs


For the 2nd half-season system, a five-season historical profit of over 3,000 units attracted us to the first peak in the away win graph.

In the 1st half-season graph, there was a similar rise in the profit curve but the five-season haul was around 2,000 units.



Norway Eliteserien: 1st Half-Season Away Win Graph


As you can see from the 2nd half graph above, our away back bets were all likely to be underdogs – not rank outsiders, but the odds were in the range from around 4.60 to 5.80.

The part of the curve containing our system existed within a fairly narrow margin, so not many bets were expected.

But, at the odds highlighted in the graph, not many bets would need to win to turn a profit here.



RESULT

In our campaign from 04/08 to 01/12/2019, there was a total of 11 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Eight of these bets lost and three won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 4.55 to 5.56.

Profit: £348.00

Running Total: £4,985.00




League 08) South Korea: K League 1

System 15 – 1st Half: Draw
Medium-risk



South Korea K League 1: 1st Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


Two very similar-looking graphs including a long and steadily increasing profit line.

The 2nd half-season graph is once again very different in appearance.



South Korea K League 1: 2nd Half-Season Draw Graph


Our chosen system spanned quotient points from 0.639 to 3.993 (4.435 the closest point of reference in the whole-of-season graph) and represents around two-thirds of all matches during the 1st half of the season.

The potential rewards are large – around 6,000 units profit from the five-season historical trend or 1,200 per season on average.

The season is 228 matches in length. Our expectations were around 75 bets (66% of 114).


RESULT

In our campaign from 01/03 to 07/07/2019, there was a total of 79 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 54 of these bets lost and 25 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.87 to 4.50.

Profit: £684.00

Running Total: £5,669.00



System 16 – 2nd Half: Draw
Medium-risk



South Korea K League 1: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


An interesting league from the perspective that the draw looked profitable in both halves of the season but at different sets of quotients.

A reminder of the 1st half graph in isolation is shown below.



South Korea K League 1: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph


In the 2nd half-season, the quotients that were chosen, 0.701 to 0.887, were part of the 1st half-season system but the rest of that system was not historically profitable in the 2nd half.

Here, we are looking at draws between well-matched teams, with the home team being the slight favourite in each case.

The quotients represent a small margin of the entire graph, so we are not expecting anywhere near as many bets as in the 1st half-season.


RESULT

In our campaign from 20/07 to 30/11/2019, there was a total of 14 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Nine of these bets lost and five won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.03 to 3.52.

Profit: £265.00

Running Total: £5,934.00




League 09) Sweden: Allsvenskan

System 17 – 1st Half: Draw
Medium-risk



Sweden Allsvenskan: 1st Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


The chosen section in the above graphs is, to some degree, mirrored at 0.405 to 0.631 in the 2nd half-season graph below.


Sweden Allsvenskan: 2nd Half-Season Draw Graph


Our chosen parameters of 0.380 to 0.895 encompass games involving closely-matched teams but where the home side is the favourite in each case.

The feel from the odds range is that every match selected ‘could go either way’, which is always prime territory for backing the draw.

The five-season historical profit is over 3,750 units or around 750 on average per season.



RESULT

In our campaign from 01/04 to 15/07/2019, there was a total of 36 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 19 of these bets lost and 17 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.99 to 3.80.

Profit: £2,100.00

Running Total: £8,034.00



System 18 – 2nd Half: Underdog
High-risk



Sweden Allsvenskan: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Underdog Combined Graphs


There wasn’t much to get excited about in this analysis, especially so when looking at the fruitless descent of the 1st half-season underdog graph below.


Sweden Allsvenskan: 1st Half-Season Underdog Graph


In the chosen portion of our graphs, we are looking at games between fairly evenly-matched teams where the away side is the slight underdog in each case.

The ‘could go either way’ factor might be beneficial if enough underdogs prevail at the higher odds they ultimately must carry (i.e. more ‘value’) to offset the weight of money placed on the favourites.

The margins are once again narrow between 0.666 and 0.943, so not a huge number of games are expected to qualify for betting upon.

And underdog betting usually suits the second half of a season:

• Teams towards the lower echelons of a league tend to fight harder for survival
• Perhaps a team near the bottom has already faced most of its toughest matches in the first half of the programme and goes into the second half at misleadingly longer odds to win its games


RESULT

In our campaign from 20/07 to 28/10/2019, there was a total of 15 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 10 of these bets lost and five won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.74 to 3.45.

Profit: £68.00

Running Total: £8,102.00




League 10) U.S.A.: Major League Soccer

System 19 – 1st Half: Favourite
Medium-risk



U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 1st Half & Whole-Season Favourite Combined Graphs


A small window of opportunity, which was mirrored in the 2nd half-season graph below – the 1st half quotients are also marked on the 2nd half-season image to highlight the similarity.


U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 2nd Half Favourite Graph


The narrow margin between 0.875 and 0.960 indicates few bets will qualify to be placed.

But from the historical perspective, this small zone has accrued over 2,000 units of profit in the previous five seasons.

All teams backed will be slight home favourites in very evenly matched games.

Neither many bets nor huge profits were expected.

With several hundred games in this league during a season, and with the format regularly changing (i.e. increasing numbers of teams in recent seasons) we felt that choosing systems in the M.L.S. with fewer potential selections would be better for the overall health of our portfolio.

RESULT

In our campaign from 31/03 to 02/06/2019, there was a total of five bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Three of these bets lost and two won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.55 to 2.66.

Profit: £14.00

Running Total: £8,116.00



System 20 – 2nd Half: Home Win
Medium-risk



U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs


Here is another example of a system’s quotients also appearing to be profitable in the counterpart half of the league.


U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 1st Half Home Win Graph


The quotients that were chosen between 0.353 to 0.518 also form part of a rising part of the profit curve in the 1st half-season graph.

All of the bets expected will be home favourites at odds of 2.00 or below and above 1.60.

At these odds, the hit rate must remain high to make a profit knowing that approximately one-quarter of all games in the 2nd half-season will qualify for betting.

This is a medium-risk system with the potential for low gains. But, in keeping with our philosophy about concentrating upon more stable leagues, it also had the security of potentially low losses.

RESULT

In our campaign from 04/07 to 06/10/2019, there was a total of 40 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 16 of these bets lost and 24 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 1.69 to 2.00.

Profit: £327.00

Grand Total: £8,443.00




Conclusion

The overall profit total was pleasing and, to reiterate, the profit curve graph at the start of this article shows what would have been achieved with flat 100 unit stakes.

However, by using a ratcheting system to incrementally increase stakes in tandem with stop-loss stake reduction at 85% of the bank each round, the profit figure would have been almost 10k higher. Ratcheting without stop-loss in place, in this case, would have netted a figure almost 14k higher.

We will shortly be publishing an article showing an articulate staking plan in action on this portfolio of bets.

The hit rate achieved was just over 38% using predominantly medium and high-risk systems, with just one low-risk system in use.

But, it should be noted that 64% of the bets placed were low-medium risk (269 bets), whilst 36% were in high-risk systems (150 bets).

The longest losing streak was only nine bets (once). The longest winning streak was eight bets (twice).

Of course, the stark reality of the campaign sticks out like a sore thumb in the profit curve graph. Using flat stakes, betting could have been stopped in mid-September having achieved the level of profit registered by mid-December. In effect, the last three months of the portfolio were a zero-sum game. Hindsight always offers up a wonderful reality check.



Emphasis on Strategy

In a word, the strategy is diversification.

Using all 10 of the Summer League HDAFU tables available we decided this term to maximise the number of systems gleaned from them by choosing a 1st half and a 2nd half-season system from each league. In other words, using the 10 tables to come up with a total of 20 different systems.

(See 6) Example and Summary in this link to illustrate why we split the profit and loss curves into the halves of each season.

The other important reason for splitting each Summer League into two systems (and ignoring whole season systems in all Summer Leagues), is the fact that the leagues themselves are not as popular with punters as the main European leagues.

Because of the lack of demand in some areas of the Summer Leagues (i.e. less money wagered makes it harder for bookmakers to balance their book), odds are sometimes adversely affected with higher over-rounds: In other words, there are less ‘value’ opportunities available for punters.

In addition, a tendency exists for bookmakers to react to historical results trends at the beginning of a new season by lowering odds across the board to counter the efficacy of punters trying to take advantage of them.

Therefore, without the ability to second-guess what is likely to happen with the odds trends in games not yet played, by concentrating on one bet type in any league for no longer than half a season, the chances of picking a system discriminated against by the bookmakers are minimised as much as is possible.

Also, if a system is going to go wrong, then better to limit the damage to half a season, rather then endure the misery of continuing losses (and hoping in vain that they improve) throughout the full term.



Final Words

Soccerwidow uses the term ‘Summer Leagues’ to describe those where the season begins and ends during the same calendar year.

In other words, leagues outside the usual format of those beginning in one calendar year and completing in the next (what we call ‘Winter Leagues’).

Although our own HDAFU campaigns are traditionally a mixture of ‘Summer’ and ‘Winter’ leagues it is difficult to provide a summary of the whole due to its overlapping and ever-running nature. In effect, the Soccerwidow campaign is one long, never-ending portfolio: The betting equivalent of perpetual motion.

In this way, it is as close to the bookmakers’ own business model as possible but on a micro-level by comparison.

Bear in mind that with the Winter League portfolio running concurrently, this article represents an isolated snapshot of what happened to our Summer Leagues during the time frame represented by 419 bets placed in 10 leagues (20 systems) over a period of 288 days from the 22nd of February to the 7th of December 2019, both dates inclusive.



Here again, is that free download link – Click on the button below to get your 2019 Summer League Campaign spreadsheet.

>>> 2019 summer league campaign <<<

(Then click on the green Checkout button, fill in your name/email address details and press Submit Order. A download link will then be sent to your email address – and it won’t cost you a penny! Check your junk mail if it doesn’t arrive in your inbox immediately).


When buying this spreadsheet you will also receive a coupon code offering a discount of £7.00 GBP, redeemable against the purchase of any individual HDAFU Table. This allows you the opportunity to experiment and explore your first HDAFU Table without paying the full price for it and before you commit to buying more – formulate strategies for any current season ‘on the cheap’!

Buy your tables in the Soccerwidow HDAFU Store (heavily discounted bundles of 5, 10, 15, 25 leagues also now available!)




Coronavirus Thoughts

The effects of coronavirus on the various leagues around the world are still unknown.

After the March 2011 Tsunami in Japan, the J1-League was halted for seven weeks. When the league restarted it assumed exactly the same statistical pattern as expected from previous seasons: the elongated break between rounds had no effects on the trends of the observed results (although only one round of matches had been played in the 2011 season up to that moment).

Coronavirus has suspended leagues for far longer and at a different point in each, and the possibility of many leagues resuming against a backdrop of empty stadia is another factor to consider. Will home advantage be to some extent neutralized by the lack of fans?

All in all, differences like this may affect individual results but, from a statistical perspective, previous trends will in all likelihood remain evident. But don’t hold us to that.

Whilst things stabilize around the world it is probably better to pause betting portfolios for a while and monitor your systems on paper. However, Value Calculation and Over/Under goal betting are probably still valid as the concepts are applied to and rely on calculating each game individually.

Stay safe.

]]> https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/2019-summer-league-hdafu-tables-campaign-report-8k-in-288-days/feed/ 0 https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/betting-guidance/starting-pausing-1x2-portfolio-middle-season/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/betting-guidance/starting-pausing-1x2-portfolio-middle-season/#respond Sat, 05 Oct 2019 07:37:21 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6378 more »]]> What happens if I miss the start of the season or the start of the first or second half?
Can I afford a break and then restart the campaign again after a holiday?



In the articles Judging the Risk of a Football Betting Portfolio and Finding a System Using the HO/AO Quotient (and many other articles), I have always referred to portfolios that span a whole season.

To stop betting when the bank has reached a comfortable level of profit isn’t a problem but your main question probably is…



Does System Betting Require Betting over a Whole Season?

Thankfully, it doesn’t!

As long as you play with a mathematical advantage on your side, you can start your betting venture at any point throughout the year/season. You can take one or more breaks at anytime and you can re-start again at anytime.

The only requirement is that your portfolio must be inherently mathematically sound.

One problem you may think of when starting a betting campaign in the middle of a season is that there will already have been a good number of matches played. You may believe that the number of potential winning candidates has been already reduced dramatically. But bear in mind that so has the number of losers.



I’m going to show you how the portfolio of bets showcased in the article 2017-18 Winter League Report – 35k in 138 Days would have performed if betting would have commenced and ceased at random times during the season.

Random Scenario 1 Start Date: 5th October 2017, incorporating Christmas holiday break from say 15th December 2017 to 10th January 2018.

Random Scenario 2 Start Date : 1st January 2018 (second half of season start date for many leagues), incorporating Easter holiday break from say 26th March 2018 to 13th April 2018.

Random Scenario 3: Start Date: 1st December 2017, until 1st May 2018 without any breaks.

Random Scenario 4: Start Date: 15th August 2017; breaking on 1st October 2017; re-starting on 10th November 2017; breaking 15th January 2018; re-starting 1st March 2018.

Curious about the results? Then let’s have a look…



Comparison of Four Totally Different Random Scenarios with the Same Portfolio

Please remember that all scenarios relate to the SAME portfolio; our 2017-18 winter league season portfolio example (using the first 10 European League HDAFU Tables in alphabetical order).

The chosen scenarios are all random and the point that I will illustrate is that so long as there is a sound portfolio in place, it doesn’t matter when you start betting or if you decide to pause, whether for a few weeks or even months.

In order to make direct comparisons, the following analyses are all based on 100 unit flat stakes across the board without ratcheting.



Scenario 1: Portfolio of bets for the 2017-18 winter league season

Scenario 1 a late start; an example perhaps where the bettor decided to paper-test his/her system for two months before committing money to it. And then, like most people, took time off over Christmas before recommencing.

With this campaign, there would have been 95 days of betting with 364 bets placed; the average winnings would have been 74.76 units per betting day, averaging a respectable win of 19.51 units per bet (100 unit flat stakes).

Total Profit: 7,102 units



Scenario 2: Portfolio of bets for the 2017-18 winter league season

Scenario 2 another late start. Perhaps someone who felt more comfortable with a longer period of paper testing? And this time, a holiday break for Easter.

Here, there would have been 55 days of betting with 195 bets placed; the average winnings would have been 61.60 units per betting day, averaging a decent win of 17.37 units per bet (100 unit flat stakes).

Total Profit: 3,388 units



Scenario 3: Portfolio of bets for the 2017-18 winter league season

Scenario 3 a five month continuous run without any breaks.

During this time scale there would have been 74 days of betting with 265 bets placed; the average winnings would have been 51.05 units per betting day, averaging a very acceptable 14.26 units per bet (100 unit flat stakes).

Total Profit: 3,778 units



Scenario 4: Portfolio of bets for the 2017-18 winter league season

Scenario 4 is a much more random pattern of betting – someone who dips in and out whenever they have time or money, or whenever they feel like it. Sometimes, there are just better things to do in life!

During the scattered times there would have been 87 days of betting with 349 bets placed; the average winnings would have been 98.75 units per betting day, averaging 20.79 units per bet (100 unit flat stakes).

Total Profit: 7,257 units



So, the main lesson you should have learned from this summary is that IF you have compiled a sound portfolio of bets then it really doesn’t matter at what time you start during the season, or when you take a break.



How do I Compile my Portfolio if I only start in the Middle of the Season?

Compile your portfolio in the same way you would when looking to begin betting at the start of the season/year.

For example, if you buy HDAFU Tables in October, you will still need to compile your portfolio as if you would have started at the beginning of the season (July/August).

The beauty of starting late is that you can even paper-test your portfolio and check if it is working. If you find that it is then you can safely assume that it will work for the remainder of the season too. If not, then adjust until you get it right.

Compile it the same way as advised in various articles and comply with the ‘magic number’.



50 is the magic number!
• At least 50% ‘medium risk’ strategies.
• At least 50% of the systems within the portfolio with at least 50 bets (for the whole season/year).
• An overall expected hit rate of the portfolio of around 50%.
• A minimum of 500 bets in the portfolio = an average of 50 bets in 10 different systems




If you can achieve more than 50 – the magic number – in any of the above equations, then your portfolio should have an even stronger chance of succeeding.

Once you have compiled your full year/season portfolio and you are happy with it then you can start straight away, at anytime of the year. Period.

As always I wish you good luck with your betting adventures!



I hope this article has cleared up any confusion about starting in the middle of a season, breaking for holidays, and so on… However, if you are still not sure, then please feel free to ask any questions via the comment section below.



>>> buy your hdafu tables <<<

]]> https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/betting-guidance/starting-pausing-1x2-portfolio-middle-season/feed/ 0 https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/1x2-system-betting-key-articles-hdafu-tables/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/1x2-system-betting-key-articles-hdafu-tables/#respond Sat, 28 Sep 2019 19:49:28 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6458 more »]]> System betting using a portfolio of strategies from several different leagues is for most people a difficult subject to master.

The following series of key articles is aimed at helping you fully understand the fundamentals of profitable 1X2 portfolio betting using our revolutionary HDAFU Tables.


Jump Link Menu:

(1) Introductory Articles
(2) Building Profitable Portfolios of Bets
(3) The Scale of Rewards on Offer
(4) The Mechanics of the HDAFU Tables
(5) All Other Important Matters

.

(1) Introductory Articles



Football Betting System Concepts

Explore the realities of constructing promising betting strategies together with the mathematical expectations involved.

The absolute basics of system betting.

Learn the principles of acceptable accuracy, and the advantages of filtering a data set for a targeted, more successful approach to football betting. << read more >>






Why Inflection Points are Vital

An inflection point is a point in a profit/loss line graph where the curve changes direction, either from rising to falling or vice versa.

What does this have to do with betting?

Inflection point graphs are the heart of our HDAFU Tables and highlight the various profit and loss areas visually. It is then easy to identify where significant changes from either profits to losses, or from losses to profits occur. The turning points in each curve indicate the natural cut-off points in the odds or odds quotients showing us where to bet (in profitable areas only) and where to stop (before entering unprofitable zones). << read more >>






Why Mid-season Breaks Matter

The HDAFU Tables contain automated analyses from three different perspectives: the whole of season analysis; the first half of season analysis; the second half of season analysis.

Why is it important to split the analyses in this fashion?

Especially in leagues with distinct mid-season or winter breaks, statistics are sometimes vastly different in each half of a season. Explore why this should be and why it is good sense to analyse historical statistics in this much detail. << read more >>




.

(2) Building Profitable Portfolios of Bets



Finding Systems using the HO/AO Quotient

HO/AO means home odds divided by the away odds, and the resultant figure is known as a quotient. In order to identify the likely outcome of a future game, an historical benchmark of some description has to be used.

But why use the HO/AO Quotient?

The HO/AO quotient is by far the most powerful method of clustering groups of matches together for comparison purposes based on the perceived strength of the teams involved in a match. Because the ratios between the home and away odds don’t alter that dramatically during ante post it is a more reliable benchmark than using a comparison of each team’s odds alone. << read more >>






Judging the Risk of a Football Betting Portfolio

Risk and reward are inherently linked and their relationship should be thoroughly understood before committing money to any betting adventure.

How risky are my individual systems or my portfolio in general?

Gain control over your portfolio with a grounding in risk diversification and learn the relationships between its likely hit rate, winning and losing streaks and potential yield in order to gauge the overall risk involved. << read more >>






Sound Staking Strategies

Learn about the different results of flat staking, and ratcheting with a stop-loss mechanism.

What are the differences between flat and progressive staking?

When things are going well, ramp up the stakes! And choose a stop-loss percentage of bank to haul the stake size back in when your campaign hits a sticky patch. << read more >>






Bank Management and Stake Size

No one bookmaker or betting exchange will give you best price (or close to it) every time. For best results, a portfolio of accounts is needed.

But how large should the initial starting bank and stakes be?

Find out what the optimum stake size should be for any size of starting bank and how to divide and manage the money in your various bookmaker and betting exchange accounts. << read more >>






Calculating Winning and Losing Streaks

A specialist article detailing the calculations to establish longest expected winning and losing streaks.

Why is this important?

In addition to explicit formulas to help you calculate the maximum expected winning and losing streaks, the relationship between these and the size of the initial starting bank is explored. The article comes with a free ‘examination paper’ download so you can test yourself until it becomes second nature. << read more >>






Starting or Pausing in the Middle of a Season

Can I afford a break and then restart the campaign again after a holiday? And what happens if I miss the start of the season or the start of the first or second half?

Does a campaign require ‘whole Season’ betting?

So long as you play with mathematical advantage on your side, a betting campaign can be started at anytime during the year/season. You can also take one or more breaks and resume again whenever you wish. Or just quit when you have reached a predetermined target. << read more >>




.

(3) The Scale of Rewards on Offer



2017-18 Winter League Report – 35k in 138 Days

Our own campaign report on the 2017-18 Winter League season encompassing 138 match days.

Comes with an Excel workbook download (paid) detailing all systems in use and each individual bet.

A full league-by-league report detailing how the profits were achieved and showing the ratcheting system in action to improve results exponentially beyond a flat staking approach. << read more >>






2016-17 Winter League Report – 20k in 214 days

Our own campaign report on the 2016-17 Winter League season encompassing 214 match days.

Comes with an Excel workbook download (paid) detailing all systems in use and each individual bet.

A full league-by-league report detailing how the profits were achieved using flat stakes only. The Excel workbook also simulates what would have been achieved with basic ratcheting and stop-loss mechanisms in place. << read more >>






2016 Summer League Report – 10k in 178 days

Our own campaign report on the 2016 Summer League season encompassing 178 match days.

Comes with an Excel workbook download (free) detailing all systems in use and each individual bet.

A full league-by-league report detailing how the profits were achieved using flat stakes only. << read more >>




.

(4) The Mechanics of the HDAFU Tables



Summer and Winter League Calendar

Date information for every league brought together in one place so that you don’t miss a match.

Are the mid-season breaks mentioned?

Yes, here you will find the start and end dates of each half of each league season together with notes on excluded matches, if applicable. (Usually, most end-of-season play-off games are excluded unless they include every team in that league). << read more >>






Understanding the Settings in Oddsportal

To identify which games to bet on in the leagues of your choice, you will need access to a live odds comparison site.

Oddsportal.com is by far the most comprehensive odds comparison site on the Net at present.

A guided tour around the Oddsportal website including detailed summaries of how to handle each of its settings. << read more >>






Understanding the Odds Toggle Function

The Odds Toggle is an important feature of the HDAFU Tables and allows you to adjust the results of each simulation.

Why would I wish to adjust the figures?

As the HDAFU Tables are powered by bookmaker odds, you may wish to simulate betting exchange results by inputting an adjustment figure in the System Picker tab. You will also find there a commission rate input feature. Adding figures to these fields will automatically change the simulations across the entire workbook. << read more >>




.

(5) All Other Important Matters



FAQ’s – Before Purchasing HDAFU Tables

A selection of reader’s questions answered in full.

Product-specific, general, and online store checkout questions answered.

Everything you need to know before purchasing your first HDAFU Table. << read more >>






FAQ’s – HDAFU Table Owners

A selection of user’s questions answered in full.

Bet timing, troublshooting, and miscellaneous questions answered.

A selection of user questions to further help you understand the nature of the product you have purchased. << read more >>






The Gambler’s Worst Enemy: Emotions!

It takes a particular mindset to be a successful gambler.

But isn’t compiling a very promising system enough?

Unemotional follow-through is vital to the success of any betting strategy. Explore the worst of what can happen if your nerves of steel turn to rust and you allow emotions to get the better of you! << read more >>




SUMMARY

Hopefully this article provides a logical walk-through the mechanics and the power of Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables.

However, if you still have questions or would like to share with other readers your experiences of using the tables, please use the comments section below.

It’s an opportunity to blow your own trumpet or let off a bit of steam!



>>> buy your hdafu tables <<<

]]> https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/1x2-system-betting-key-articles-hdafu-tables/feed/ 0 https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/inflection-points-football-betting-odds/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/inflection-points-football-betting-odds/#comments Fri, 06 Sep 2019 14:22:17 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=4654 more »]]> An inflection point is a point at which the curvature of a curve changes direction, that is, the curve changes from being concave (concave downward) to convex (concave upward), or vice versa.

What does this have to do with betting?

Image: FXQuadro (Shutterstock)

We speak about ‘Inflection Point graphs’ in our HDAFU Profit/Loss simulations because these graphs have turning points. Turning points are points at which a significant change occurs.

In layman’s language – Turning points are the points in the ‘inflection point graphs’ where profits turn to losses or, where losses turn to profits.

For the mathematicians amongst you, we use the term ‘turning point’ although the academically correct mathematical expression would be ‘maximum’ and ‘minimum’.

However, ‘maximum’ and ‘minimum’ in normal language signifies ‘best’ and ‘worst’ but turning points in a curve have nothing to do with any judgement of being ‘good’ or ‘bad’.

Apologies for any academical incorrectness in the use of the terminology, but somehow we have to make ourselves understood by everybody…




Home ~ Draw ~ Away Profit/ Loss Curves

If you have ever calculated your own odds you will certainly have noticed that bookmaker prices often do not show the ‘true’ picture.

In other words, their odds seldom adhere to mathematically calculated values (the statistically expected values).

In the majority of games, odds are either higher than mathematically expected or lower…

Is That Really True? Can You Prove That?

Here’s an image showing the Profit/Loss Curves for betting on the Home win ~ Draw ~ Away win with equal 100 units stakes over a period of five seasons; the straight red line is the bookmakers’ profit trendline:

 

English Premier League – Profit/Loss curves by ODDS for 2013-14 to 2017-18 seasons

 

What you can see in the above graph is that if one curve rises, e.g. betting on the away win if the home odds are between 1.7 and 2.15 (orange curve), then another curve falls.

In this example, betting on the draw (brown curve) produces a loss for the bettor and hence, a profit for the bookmakers.

What is most revealing in the above graph is the red curve. It shows how the bookmakers profits vary depending on the home odds, but the most interesting part is the straight line, the red trendline. It is positive for all odds and perpendicular. The interpretation of this is that for the bookmakers it doesn’t matter in which cluster a particular match is in (in the example, home odds), their odds guarantee them the same constant profit across the whole spread.

Why Is This So?

A bookmaker’s aim is to make a profit and they price their odds to ensure that sufficient action is taking place on both sides of a bet, with enough profit retained whatever the outcome.

In addition, bookmaker betting odds are often adjusted according to public opinion to guard against a disproportionately large amount of money being placed on just one side of a bet.

How can the Bettor Make Use of This Knowledge?

The bettor can take advantage of the knowledge that each betting market contains certain odds clusters that are regularly under-priced, whilst other odds clusters are habitually over-priced. But attention, please! These under- and over-priced clusters are different from league to league.

Bookmakers take into account gamblers’ preferences and these vary depending on the cultural background (e.g. risk-aversion) of the locals. This is perhaps because local bettors are the majority takers for any league bookmakers, so bookmakers take local tastes into account.

It is obvious that, for example, Italians will be betting primarily on Italian matches; Spanish people on Spanish matches, and so on.

However, please be aware that the EPL, the most prominent league in the world, naturally has a huge amount of supporters worldwide. This makes the EPL the most unreliable league (system betting-wise) in terms of its odds. Although odds patterns can be spotted easily, it is always a gamble whether or not they will be returning a profit the forthcoming year.

Nevertheless, for this article, we will use the EPL as an example.

The Significance of the Turning Points on the Inflection Point Graphs

Profit turning points can be easily spotted in the Inflection Point tabs of the HDAFU Simulation Tables using visualisations (see example below) in the form of Profit/Loss curves based on five seasons’ data within these tables.

For example, the EPL: Between 2013-18, if you had gambled unemotionally and systematically on all English Premier League matches to be away wins (at the highest bookmaker odds) and placed a constant stake of 100 units per fixture, then at the end of the fifth season, you would not have seen a large change in your bank: -125 units after 1,900 bets.

Huge losses would have been incurred, had you backed all of the away teams to win and limited your betting to the zone of odds between 2.31 and 4.53. Within this zone your losses would have totalled -9,189 units (3,714 plus 5,475).

However, if your strategy had been based on away wins at odds from 1.68 and up to 2.31, after five seasons your profit would have been 3,202 units (7,714 minus 512).

That’s quite a difference, isn’t it?

 

English Premier League – Profit/Loss curve for 2013-14 to 2017-18 seasons

 

Just as a side note… Can you see yourself betting on an EPL match targeting odds between 2.3 and 4.5 when backing the away win?

Different Leagues = Different Inflection Points Graphs

The above screenshot shows the Profit/Loss curve for the EPL if back bets on the away win were placed on all 1,900 matches between 17/08/2013 and 13/05/2018 (at 100 unit stakes).

You can see from the graph that the first turning point is located at 2.31 on the ‘away odds’ axis. At this point, the P/L curve reaches a peak of 3,714 units profit before starting to fall again. The decrease in profits continues until away odds of 4,35 are reached (P/L value: – 5,475 units), where the curve turns for a spell but remains negative until away odds of 9.5 are reached. Then it experiences a large jump before falling again.

Now, we compare this to the German Bundesliga Inflection Point graph:

 

German Bundesliga 1 – Profit/Loss curve for 2013-14 to 2017-18 seasons

 

You can see at a glance that both graphs are very different.

Whilst the EPL shows a rising curve (profits) until odds of 2.31 the Bundesliga P/L curve starts to drop straight away from odds of 1.4.

This indicates that the bettors on the Bundesliga are probably much more risk-averse than EPL bettors and it seems that they prefer betting on favourites (lower odds). Using this mentality bookmakers can reduce their odds in this group to optimise their profits and hence, the draw odds and/or home odds are likely to be increased.

Once you start working with inflection point graphs you will not only see the various profit /loss curves (whole season, 1st half and 2nd half) and start recognising patterns but you will be also amazed to learn about the different mentalities of bettors in different countries.

Working With the Inflection Points graphs using the HDAFU Tables

Here’s a handy little tutorial:

 
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).



How to Use the Knowledge of Turning Points

(1) check your betting pattern

Do you recognise your betting patterns within the most common odds clusters; those which show a falling Profit/Loss curve? (For example, betting on odds between 2.3 and 4.5 when backing an away win in the EPL).

If so, perhaps reconsider your strategy and avoid the odds used by the bookmakers to make their profits. Of course, no matter how hard you try, betting in the zones where bookmakers habitually reduce prices (odds) is asking for long-term losses.

It is very rare for people to succeed in any walk of life by swimming against a strong current and you can safely assume that the bookmakers know their job and have for centuries been making a living from manipulating figures.

(2) don’t even try to “beat” the bookies

Swim along with them. ‘Play’ the market the same way as they do. Start looking at strategies which are not in conflict with the market, but in rhythm with it.

(3) be aware that each league has a different market behaviour

Customs and habits of people vary from country to country. Every nation has different culture or cultures. Surely everybody has noticed regional differences expressed in such tangible goods as food or housing. However, these differences extend into how people think and act.

Unfortunately, differences in betting patterns and the subsequent reaction of bookmakers when setting their odds cannot be spotted without taking a mathematical approach. Customer habits, especially in the betting market, remain well hidden from the bettor.

Whichever league you prefer betting on, identify the odds clusters which are utilised by the bookmakers to turn their profits – and then work around those clusters.

(4) use the market turning points for your own benefit

Concentrate on developing your personal betting strategy by taking the market rules into consideration.

(5) find a strategy and identify matches for producing long-term profits

Using the HDAFU simulation tables and finding the various turning points will provide you with the need knowledge of odds clusters you need to produce a long-term profit when backing.

If you already use our Value Bet Detector for calculating odds for individual matches then the knowledge of profitable odds clusters will help you to pick matches which are worthwhile re-calculating.

]]> https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/inflection-points-football-betting-odds/feed/ 30 https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/betting-guidance/judging-risk-football-betting-portfolio/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/betting-guidance/judging-risk-football-betting-portfolio/#comments Thu, 08 Nov 2018 18:30:20 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6331 more »]]> Understanding how risk can be controlled when betting is sometimes quite a challenge. Learn today how risk can be reduced & controlled when betting on football. Risk management of a portfolio should be an essential part of your betting strategy.

Please note that this article addresses system betting (= a predetermined selection of bets to bet on the same criteria over a longer period of time).

System betting simply means that you are not judging the risk of any individual bet prior to placing it (this would be ‘value betting’). System bettors identify an overall ‘edge’ or ‘advantage’ that is likely to persist over a longer period of time and then follow-through from the start to the finish of a campaign. Of course, there is ‘value’ involved (a ‘mathematical advantage’), otherwise it wouldn’t work.

The examples in this article are our actual picks for the 2017-18 season that were identified using the HDAFU Tables.



What Exactly is a Portfolio?

A portfolio is a package of bets where extensive analysis has determined the choices (picks). Diversifying the portfolio is an essential part of betting strategy with the aim of reducing the risks of losing.

Please do not confuse the term ‘portfolio’ with ‘best timing of placing bets’. A portfolio is planned well in advance of a weekend (or round, or even season) and determines the assortment of bets that are to be placed later.

A portfolio of bets is therefore a varied group of individual bets, not just one particular match on a particular day.

To judge the success of any particular betting portfolio it is necessary to evaluate the performance of all of its systems together as one, not just the individual group members (bets in just one league or system).



What is Diversification?

Diversification is a technique that reduces risk by allocating bets among various leagues, bet types, and other categories such as times or seasons. The rationale behind this technique contends that a portfolio constructed of different kinds of bets will, on average, pose a lower risk than any individual bet (system) found within the portfolio.

Diversification strives to smooth out unsystematic or anomalous risk events (outcome of matches/leagues) in a portfolio so that the positive performance of some bets (winnings) neutralizes the negative performance of others (losers).



The questions that probably arise right now are: How big should my portfolio be? How much should I diversify?

I will answer these two questions at the end of the article but for the time being let us first look at our portfolio for the 2017-18 Winter League season. I will explain step-by-step how I came up with the choices and what my thinking was behind them. This will probably already answer many of your questions.



Our Portfolio for the 2017-18 Season

For the sake of brevity, I am showing only the first 10 European leagues we used in alphabetical order: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, England, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands and Poland.

The overall results you will see would have been similar whichever 10 leagues we chose to illustrate with.

For betting, it doesn’t matter which leagues you choose so long as you have easy access to all of them with the bookmakers available to you. A well-balanced portfolio normally delivers the results as expected.

Here is our portfolio for 2017-18:

Image 1: Portfolio of bets for the 2017-18 winter league season

As you can see it is a conservative portfolio with a good number of low risk and medium risk systems.

As a side note, this article isn’t about how the individual systems (within a portfolio) are picked. However, for the 53 bets in the EPL, you will find a detailed explanation in this article: Finding a System Using the HO/AO Quotient

For the other nine leagues you will just have to trust that the systems were picked in a similar manner to the EPL example.




Probability / Expected Hit Rate / Risk

The terms probability, expectation and hit rate are all closely related, and express more or less the same thing. The main differences are that before a game starts (or a whole system of bets/portfolio is played) the terms ‘probability’, ‘expectation’ and ‘prediction’ are used but, once results are known, these terms are supplanted by actual ‘hit rate’.

The observed distribution of the past (as displayed in the HDAFU Tables) becomes the probability for the future (= expected hit rate).



Referring to image 1 above, there was an expected hit rate of 80% in the Greek Super League. This meant that from every 10 bets placed, on average, 8 were likely to win. Therefore, the longest losing streak when placing 50 bets in a row was 2 (see article: The Science of Calculating Winning and Losing Streaks). This individual system within the portfolio was evaluated as being ‘low risk’.

On the other hand, the expected hit rate of 31.58% in Germany meant that from every 10 bets placed, on average, 7 were likely to lose. The longest losing streak expected when placing all 57 bets in a row was 11. This is an example of low probabilities, or ‘high risk’ classification.



Losing Streak Observed vs. Maximal Losing Streak Expected

The ‘longest losing streak expected’ is not necessarily the ‘longest losing streak observed’.

For example, in the EPL 2012-17 the observed longest losing streak was 6 in a row and this happened 3 times during the previous 5 seasons.

Image 2: EPL HO/AO group 0.603 to 1.396 – Backing the Draw 1st Half

Nevertheless, to judge the risk for the future you have to allow for the worst-case scenario even if it hasn’t happened for a very long time – one day it will happen, believe me!

It is always safer to prepare for the worst rather than relying on luck.

At the end of this article (image 6) you will see that 2 of the 10 systems (Austria, EPL) reached their expected longest losing streaks, and one system even outstripped its calculated (predicted) expectations (Denmark).




Calculating the Expected Maximum Longest Losing Streak

Here’s a screenshot from the EPL 2012-17 HDAFU Table representing the HO/AO quotient cluster group (0.603 to 1.396) for backing the draw. The expected total number of bets and expected hit rate for the forthcoming season are circled in red.

Image 3: EPL 2012-17 HO/AO group 0.603 to 1.396 – Backing the Draw 1st Half

To calculate the longest expected losing streak use the following formula:



n = number of trials (i.e. total number of bets expected)
ln = natural logarithm
P = probability / expected hit rate (for losing streaks: expected losing rate)
| .. | = absolute value or ‘modulus’




Here’s the formula in action for the EPL example:



The winning probability of 39.62% means of course that the losing probability is its inverse:


100% minus 39.62% = 60.38%

To calculate the longest losing streak use in Excel the following formula:

=ABS(LN(53)/LN(60.38%))

Read more about the above formula, its use and interpretation in our article: The Science of Calculating Winning and Losing Streaks




The result of our calculations meant that for the 2017-18 EPL season, when backing ‘Draw in the first half’ within an HO/AO Quotient between 0.603 and 1.396, the expected maximum losing streak was 8 losses in a row.

Furthermore, sorting the 2012-17 data falling within this HO/AO Quotient group into rounds revealed that there weren’t more than 4 available bets in any round of matches; sometimes there was only one, and occasionally there were none.

With a losing streak of 8 bets possibly spanning a period of 5 to 6 weeks (= 1.5 months), this system was not likely to be easy on the nerves.

To guard against nerves becoming mass panic, you will need to ensure that your portfolio does not contain too many systems with lower probabilities. Although not very likely, it is quite possible that they may all experience their longest losing streaks at the same time (2017-18 being a case in point, where the season began badly across the board).



Rules of Thumb to Judge Risk

A high yield ALWAYS indicates high risk!

High Yield (over 30%) = High Risk (normally)

…Until it doesn’t!

I have included in the example Netherlands Eredivisie (Backing the Favourite 2nd Half) because the analysis came out with a 75% probability of winning. However, the expected yield of 32.23% was exceptionally high for this probability group and there were only 15 bets expected.

Normally, high probability of winning and high yield do not go together. Therefore, it may have been just an observed anomaly because of the small number of matches on average each year in this group.

Nevertheless, because only 15 bets were expected (of over 500 in the whole portfolio) and with an expected high hit rate, the overall judgment for this particular pick was ‘medium’ although the high yield would have normally marked this system as ‘high risk’.

Moral 1: There are no rules without exceptions.

Next rule:

Low Probability (expected hit rate under 35%) = High Risk

In Germany, the expected hit rate was 31.58% (high risk), whilst expected yield was 29.38% (medium risk)

The combined expectations of hit rate and yield here would perhaps have labelled this system as ‘high risk’ but downgraded to ‘medium risk’ as expected yield was under 30%.



Calculating the overall Probability / Expected Hit Rate / Risk of the whole portfolio

Portfolio compilation and decision-making involved the balancing act of achieving as high an expected hit rate as possible, together with an acceptable yield.

• The overall expected hit rate of the portfolio should be in the region of ± 50% (of course, if you can get it higher, the easier it will be on your nerves)
• An acceptable yield is anything in the region of ± 20%




To calculate the overall expected hit rate of the whole portfolio, list your systems like I have done in image 1 (Portfolio of bets for the 2017-18 winter league season)

1. First you multiply the number of expected bets with the expected hit rate for each system, e.g.

   Austria: 72 times 31.94% = 22.9968
   Belgium: 30 times 86.67% = 26.001
   Denmark: 36 times 41.67% = 15.0012
   …and so on

2. Then add them all up:

   22.9968 plus 26.001 plus 15.0012 plus etc., etc. .. = 243.2526

3. Now divide the result by the total number of bets expected:

   243.2526 divided by 505 = 0.4816883 ≫≫ 48.17%

To calculate the overall expected Yield the same calculation applies.



The portfolio example in this article had 505 expected bets over the period of a whole season, with an expected Hit Rate of 48.17%, and an expected Yield of 22.22%.

It was therefore a ‘medium risk’ portfolio.

‘Medium risk’ means that you must be prepared for bumpy rides – substantial ups and downs in your betting bank. But with a sensible staking plan, this shouldn’t mean bankruptcy before the situation picks up again.



Three Scenarios of the same Medium Risk Portfolio with 500 Bets

Despite a ‘high’ hit rate of 48.17% (which isn’t as ‘high’ as you may think) you may experience a betting campaign like this one if you don’t get off to a good start:

Image 4: Profit/ Loss Scenario I for an expected hit rate of 48.17% and 22.22% yield

However, you could get a good start and a very smooth curve over the whole season.

Please note, these screen captures relate to the same portfolio of bets. Nothing has changed: 48.17% probability of winning; 22.22 % expected yield.

Image 5: Profit/ Loss Scenario II for an expected hit rate of 48.17% and 22.22% yield

Scenario 3 has an extremely good start (up to bet number 80) and then gives way to a bumpy ride to the end of the season:

Image 6: Profit/ Loss Scenario III for an expected hit rate of 48.17% and 22.22% yield

Have a think about these profit/loss curve simulations.

The first (unlucky) scenario even has an average hit rate of 52%, much higher than the second and third. However, the second and third are much smoother on the nerves and both have a better financial result at the end.

What I’m trying to say is that you must always remember that you are gambling. Although you are using sound statistics for compiling your portfolio, never lose sight of the fact you are still gambling!

The two very simple rules to negotiate a season with a profit at the end are:

• If you have a sound portfolio do not give up too quickly.
• If you have at the beginning a very good start don’t become over-excited and start increasing your stakes more than originally planned.

Always remember, gambling has a lot similarities with rolling a dice; you may have to wait for ages until the sixes start popping up or you have them all at the beginning and then for a long time none.



The Final Performance of the Portfolio

At the end of the season, the portfolio produced the expected result (the overall hit rate was more or less as predicted) although the leagues themselves within the portfolio performed erratically with peaks and troughs during their seasons.

Image 7: Final performance of the 2017-18 winter league portfolio

All three ‘high risk’ systems produced, as expected, very long losing streaks: Austria, EPL, Poland.

Denmark produced a longer losing streak than expected. It started on the 26/8/2017 and continued until 29/10/17 – more than 9 rounds of games! Nevertheless, they recovered to finish with a positive return, although far lower than expected.

I will write more about the final performance of that portfolio in another article where you will also be able to download the whole monitoring spreadsheet including staking and ante post odds movements.



How big should my portfolio be? How much should I diversify?

Betting, in general, is a very unreliable venture and to be able to ‘control’ risk (reduce on losing streaks) a good number of high probability bets is required.

However, the big challenge with football betting is that especially the lower odds (up to 2.5) are often reduced because market demand forces bookmakers to reduce prices for favourites and increase the prices for the opposite bets (underdogs and occasionally draws).

You will therefore find plenty of draw and underdog strategies in the HDAFU tables but unfortunately, these two bet types come normally with very low probabilities of winning (= low hit rate expectation/high losing rate expectation).

And, if you have too many low probability bets in your portfolio and experience several weeks in a row where the favourites are mostly winning, your betting bank may become distressed beyond your comfort levels.

As I have shown you in the example, to get a balanced portfolio of 500 bets requires approximately 10 leagues. If one league doesn’t play according to statistics (e.g. Denmark) another league will hopefully make up for it (e.g. Germany).

Of course, the larger your portfolio, the better.

The more ‘low risk’ you can identify the better.
Reduce on ‘high risk’ as much as you can.
Image 8: Relationship between a systems expected hit rate and its yield

Pay attention that you don’t have too many systems with just 10 to 15 bets in your portfolio as they are much more volatile than systems with 50 bets or more.

However, in the example portfolio, there were only 5 systems with 50 or more bets. It’s not always easy to stick to every rule.

The Rule of Thumb is: 50 is the magic number!
• At least 50% ‘medium risk’ strategies.
• At least 50% of the systems within the portfolio with at least 50 bets (for the whole season/year).
• An overall expected hit rate of the portfolio of around 50%.
• A minimum of 500 bets in the portfolio = an average of 50 bets in 10 different systems




If you can achieve more than 50 – the magic number – in any of the above equations, then your portfolio should have an even stronger chance of succeeding.

Good luck with your betting!



I hope this article has answered the questions we receive about judging the risk of a system identified with the HDAFU Tables, and will help you to construct a well-balanced portfolio. However, if you are still not clear, then please feel free to ask any questions via the comment section below.



>>> buy your hdafu tables <<<

]]> https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/betting-guidance/judging-risk-football-betting-portfolio/feed/ 17