They rely on dividing historical data (previous five complete seasons) into clusters according to the “HO/AO quotient” to provide a reliable comparison with future matches under analysis.

Betting odds are a mixture of statistical fact and public opinion (people voting with their money) as to what the likely outcome of an event will be.

Introducing the HO/AO quotient allows us to to ‘cluster’ groups of past matches and with that, to quantify the mutual relationship between the number of goals scored in matches and the strength of the teams involved. (The HO/AO quotients are a practical application of corellation).

This allows us to put an upcoming game into perspective.

In other words, we use the group of past matches bearing HO/AO quotients most similar to the match under analysis in order to make more accurate assessments about its likely number of goals.

The number of goals scored↔team strength relationship is a hugely strong correlation known to the bookmakers and used to a greater or lesser degree when setting their opening odds.

However, as public opinion (market pressure) leads to ‘errors’ in market pricing (odds), using the knowledge of the correlation allows us to spot ‘value’.

Following on from our Betting with Cluster Tables introductory article, here are the four simple steps needed to calculate pinpoint zero odds for intelligent value betting decisions in the Over/Under ‘X’ Goals market:

We shall look at each of these steps using the English Premier League as example.

Let’s look in fine detail at the EPL match: West Ham vs. Southampton from 31st March, 2018.

Step 1 – Find the Home and Away Odds

One of the most important components of the Cluster Tables is the HO/AO quotient (home odds divided by away odds), hence the need for both odds before referring to the tables.

To find the latest, up-to-date odds for any fixture you can employ bookmakers or betting exchanges of your choice, or make use of an odds comparison site. For the sake of our example, we are using OddsPortal.com as they are the only site showing time-stamped odds to support our illustrations.

Oddsportal Ante Post Odds Composite Screenshot – West Ham vs. Southampton 31/03/2018

The screenshot on the left is a composite image showing both the home and away odds just before this game started. Click on the image to enlarge it in a new tab.

Betsafe offered a price of 2.90 on West Ham six minutes before kick-off, whilst 5Dimes gave best price of 2.73 on Southampton seconds before the start.

Despite the multitude of odds movements throughout the entire ante post market, you will find in the vast majority of cases that the relationship between the home and away odds will stay pretty much the same throughout the ante post market.

Usually, the HO/AO quotient locates the match firmly between the two ends of a cluster, and the quotient tends to remain in that same cluster group no matter how the odds move during the lead up to kick-off.

This means that the timing of the analysis is not critical; you can perform it at any period during the ante post market before the match kicks-off. And of course, bet placement timing then also becomes just a matter of finding market odds containing value.

Timing only becomes an issue in the very rare event that the HO/AO quotient places the match very close to one of the ends of the cluster range for either team. It is then always wise to check odds close to kick-off to ensure that you have the match in the right HO/AO clusters for both teams.

Most of our tables are based on Pinnacle bookmaker odds, and for these leagues, you need only find which odds Pinnacle is offering at that time.

A small number of our tables use the highest audited bookmaker odds from a select panel included at Oddsportal. For these leagues, you will need to find the highest home and away odds being offered from a small range of bookmakers at the time.

Okay, we have our home and away odds – onto the next step…

Step 2 – Calculate the HO/AO Quotient

Easy! Take a calculator or enter the figures into a spreadsheet and just divide the home odds by the away odds to provide a quotient.

In this case, the quotient is: 2.90 divided by 2.73 = 1.0623 (rounded-up)

Step 3 – Identify the Relevant Cluster and Percentage Result

Cross-checking any team’s HO/AO quotient against their statistical percentages for any of the over/under 0.5 to 6.5 options in any match under analysis is extremely easy.

Within the Cluster Table for the appropriate league, click on the Betting Tables tab. This reveals a one-touch spreadsheet for obtaining both team’s results.

Here is the table of figures for West Ham (click on the image below to enlarge it in a new tab – and then use the magnifier to enlarge again if necessary):

Over/Under Cluster Table – Betting Table Screenshot

To change the team, simply click on the orange team name in the top left-hand corner to access the drop-down menu of all teams with five-season data sets.

By clicking on the team you are looking for, the figures in the table will automatically revert to those of that team.

The first half of the sheet contains the home figures: Summary at the top, Over ‘X’ Goals, and then Under ‘X’ Goals. The bottom three panels are the away results.

For this example, let’s decide to go for the most popular ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ bet.

For West Ham’s home figures, using the second panel from the top, you can see on the left-hand side in dark blue, their dedicated HO/AO clusters.

The HO/AO quotient we have calculated is 1.0623 and this fits neatly into the third cluster down. Looking under ‘Running Total Probability’, we simply record the percentage figure, in this case, 73.9%.

Here are West Ham’s top two panels with the relevant cluster row and percentage result for Over 2.5 Goals highlighted:

Over/Under Cluster Table – Betting Tables Tab – West Ham’s Cluster Row Highlighted

And after changing the team name, here are Southampton’s away figures in their fourth and fifth panels:

Over/Under Cluster Table – Betting Tables Tab – Southampton’s Cluster Row Highlighted

You will also note that the HO/AO quotient fitted very firmly inside the relevant cluster group of both teams, and not too close to its edges (West Ham’s cluster group was 0.7301-1.9345, whilst Southampton’s was 0.8211-1.3880).

Again, you will rarely encounter situations that will need monitoring – most games will see the same cluster groups used despite the odds movements throughout the ante post market. This means that neither analysing nor placing the bets is time-sensitive, and both exercises need not be performed at the same time either.


Next Page: Step 4 – Do the Maths!

In the world of sports betting the art of arbitrage involves wagering on both or all sides of an event with the right combination of odds and stakes in place to make a profit whatever the outcome of that event.

Image: 3Dmask (Shutterstock)

The principle of arbitrage is ‘sure betting‘, supposedly with minimum risk (for the seasoned arbitrageur) and long-term, guaranteed profits.

Surely this is the closest you can come to attaining the “Holy Grail” in betting? Or maybe not?

Despite the apparent rewards on offer the number of worldwide professional sports arbitrageurs is in the low tens of thousands, not more. In comparison, the German stock market employs over 3,200 staff, whilst one of the largest providers of automated arbitrage services, RebelBetting has even fewer subscribers than this number (as we write).

So, why such a relatively small group of customers taking advantage of the so-called ‘guaranteed’ gains averaging between 1.5% and 3.5% per bet (a typical ‘arb‘ provides around 2.5%), with perhaps 15-25% potential profit on the capital employed each month? That’s a far higher reward than any bank, building society, or share dividend offers!

Is Arbitrage legal?

There is no question that arbitrage is legal because the arber is simply exploiting price differences in the market, effectively buying and selling (bets) as any trader does. There is nothing illegal about this.

However, it is understandable that bookmakers are not fond of arbers. Every company has the right (even arbitrarily) to decide who their customers should be and many bookmakers prohibit arbers from their books. As soon as suspicion is aroused bookmaker accounts are quickly limited or even closed.

High Capital Requirement and Personal Characteristics

Successful arbitrage betting ultimately guarantees small returns but the sacrifice is that the process requires large funds. The money is tied-up in the venture for a potentially long period of time.

Pursuing an average 2.5-3.0% profit per betting round and targeting a return of 15-25% of the capital employed per month, the ‘arber’ needs, for example, a starting bank of at least 25,000 € in order to make 5,000 € profit per month.

Wow! A lot of money required at the start to make it worthwhile, and entering the arbitrage arena on these terms will be impossible for many.

Of course, arbitrage betting is a pretty safe investment, but in addition to substantial funds it requires not only great expertise but also some strong personal characteristics to make it possible at all:

• Many time-consuming calculations must be performed. Ouch, lots of maths!
• Clear and complete records of every transaction must be kept. How boring!
• Discipline and consistency has to be maintained at all times. Far too unsocial!

And lastly, a really stable, reliable and fast internet connection is essential, without any limitations to any bookmaker or exchange worldwide.

However, the average punter is perhaps not such a ‘professional’ investor, but bets for fun and/or the excitement of watching an event knowing that money is riding on the outcome. Of course, he hopes to profit from the wager but his are gambles, not investments. Is that the reason why there are so few ‘arbers’ out there and active in the market?

To teach you how to make reliable profits with Betting on Over Under we have written a Fundamentals of Sportsbetting course which is accompanied by Cluster Tables.

This article explains some of the mechanics behind the Cluster Tables.

To demonstrate how the cluster tables work and that their use enables you to easily pick a successful portfolio of Over/Under bets for any weekend, we are going to analyse a random EPL weekend with the matches played between 12/5/2017 and 16/5/2017.

For detailed calculations and explanations we are going to be looking at the Tottenham vs. Man United match, played on 14/05/2017.

5 Simple Steps Guide on How to Win Over and Under Betting

The Cluster Tables have been developed to allow you to quickly calculate the true probabilities/odds for a match that you wish to bet on and then compare the true odds with the actual market prices. To find ‘value’ in the market you need to find the pricing ‘errors’; the bets which are overpriced and the bets which are underpriced.

The truth of the matter is that these are not really ‘errors’, but rather a result of the bookmakers making use of public opinion to maximise their profits. They reduce the prices of bets if the demand is high, and vice versa.

You too can account for ‘public opinion’ as a correction factor when calculating the true odds. This is done via the HO/AO quotient which is explained further down in this article.

Another important detail that you may notice when reading this article and using the Cluster Tables is that we don’t use any goal counts (or ‘form’ considerations, or news) from the current season.

We are going to analyse a round of matches from May 2017, but will be applying the Cluster Table encompassing the five seasons from 2011-12 to 2015-16.

The example is purposely set late in the season to demonstrate that for true betting success you don’t need to worry about ‘current form’, ‘suspensions’, ‘weather’, etc.

Have fun, enjoy & win!

(1) Calculate the HO/AO Quotient

This step is very simple.

Find the match – Tottenham vs. Man United (14/05/2017) – Use www.Oddsportal.com to look up the home and away odds for this game. Most of our tables are based on Pinnacle bookmaker odds, and for these leagues, you need only find which odds Pinnacle is offering at that time.

A small number of our tables use the highest audited bookmaker odds from a select panel included at Oddsportal. For these leagues, you will need to find the highest home and away odds being offered from a small range of bookmakers at the time.

In our example, on the evening before the match, the home win (Tottenham) was priced at 1.85, and the away win (Manchester Utd) at 5.50.

For the HO/AO quotient you then simply divide the home odds (HO) by the away odds (AO).

For those who like odds closer to the game, the highest bookmaker odds just before kick-off were: Tottenham: 1.7 and Manchester Utd: 6.3.

We need this quotient for the next step, but first we will take a look at what this quotient actually means.

In the next step you will also see that both HO/AO quotients – 0.336 and 0.269 – fall in the same cluster group. This will actually (almost) always be the case as the clusters span quite a wide range of corresponding odds. Therefore, it really does not matter WHEN you carry out the calculations!

Bookmakers seldom price their odds to represent the true probabilities. They set odds that follow the public opinion.

We are making use of this public perception as a ‘correction factor’ when trying to find value bets.

This is where the HO/AO quotient comes in handy as a very simple solution. It is possible to find the 1X2 odds for any match played in the past and to calculate their HO/AO quotients.

With the help of the HO/AO quotients it is then possible to cluster matches into groups which represent the ‘perceived’ strength of teams at the time of the match.

For example, a match perceived by the public as being between two equally strong teams at the time of the match will have a quotient between 0.9 and 1.1 (home/away odds, both, in the region 2.5 to 3.0), while strong home favourites may have quotients of 0.04 or 0.05 and so on.

Just tinker around with that, until you get the idea.

Here’s a video to show you the EPL Cluster Table in action.

(2) Pick the Correct Row in the Cluster Tables for the Match

After having calculated the HO/AO quotient we are only one step away from picking the Value Bet(s) for this match.

For the sake of the shortness of this article and to keep it sweet and simple, we are only looking at the Over/Under 2.5 Goals bets.

In the match between Tottenham vs. Man United match, played on 14/05/2017, the Over/Under odds for this match were very close: The bet on Over 2.5 goals was priced at 2.00, and the Under 2.5 bet was priced at 1.98.

Which one of the two was the value bet? What should we have picked without listening to our gut feelings?

Remember, the HO/AO quotient was:

The evening before the match: 1.85 divided by 5.5 = 0.336
The closing odds before kick-off: 1.7 divided by 6.3 = 0.269

Here are the screenshots for the distributions for both team (I marked in orange the cell you have to look up the probabilities to calculate the game in the next step).

In the above screenshots, the goal distribution of Tottenham playing at home and Manchester United playing away can be seen.

Please note that for Tottenham we had to pick the second to last row to be in the correct cluster group whilst for Manchester United it was the last row. This is something, that when you start using the Cluster Tables, you will have to be very careful about – to always pick the correct row which corresponds to the calculated HO/AO quotient.

(3) Calculate the Probability of Over/ Under Goals and Convert Them into ‘Fair’ Odds

With the above two tables we can now calculate the probabilities for this particular match.

The calculation is as follows:

Just as a side note, we are calculating with European odds through this website. If you don’t know how to convert probabilities into odds and vice versa, here’s the formula:

If you need to calculate with odds other than European, here’s the article on the topic:
Understanding Betting Odds – Moneyline, Fractional Odds, Decimal Odds, Hong Kong Odds, IN Odds, MA Odds

Next Steps:
(4) Compare your Calculated Fair Odds with the Market Odds & Identify the Value Bets
(5) Decide Whether To Lay or To Back

Wish to play around with the Cluster Table?
Try the EPL Cluster Table for Only £2

Image: mik38 (Shutterstock)

In the 1960’s the US mathematician Edward O. Thorp published a ground-breaking book entitled ‘Beat the Dealer’, which ultimately earned him the nickname of ‘the father of card counting’. In his book he revealed a revolutionary point scoring system that has since been successfully used by professional and amateur card players for more than two generations.

Counting systems have since been further developed and there is now a plethora of more or less similar techniques, some more complex than others, but in the end all giving the gambler an advantage over the house.

Card Counting is actually pretty simple maths. The only real skill necessary is to be able to add-up and count in your head like a machine gun. Not everyone can do it, but it goes without saying that the less effort you need to make on the counting, the more concentrated you can become on appearing as just another ‘normal’ player at the table.

The High-Low System (also known as Hi-Lo)

One of the most profitable and perhaps the easiest way to count cards is known as the Hi-Lo strategy (allocating high and low cards in the game a value). This system is basically a ‘Running Count’ technique in which each card has a certain value.

The system is used to identify when the ratio of cards already played with high value is unbalanced compared to cards with low value.

Cards such as Tens, Picture Cards and Aces, not only increase the chance that a Blackjack is due, but also increase the chance of future hands which are worth at least 20.

A deck which includes many high cards brings the player into a very profitable situation because it increases the chance that the dealer loses.

In a situation where the majority of cards left in the shoe have a value between 2 and 6, the dealer has a significant advantage over the player.

The more high cards left in the deck to be played, the higher the chance that the dealer loses.

(1) How Hi-Lo Works

From the moment the first card of a new mixed deck is dealt, the player begins to count the card values (+1, 0, -1).

A low card (2, 3, 4, 5, 6) increases the count by one point, a high card (10, J, Q, K, A) decreases the count by one point. This is called the ‘running count’.

The cards 7-9 are neutral and are not counted in the Hi-Lo system.

So, your count may look like this in any round:

Count the total number for this round, and you should come up with +1.

This count means that more cards with a low value have already been played, meaning there are more high value cards in the remaining deck (10, J, Q, K, A). However, you need to keep in mind that the count cannot be very accurate after just a few hands. It is important to collect more information for better accuracy and greater advantage over the house.

If you are trying Blackjack card counting for the first time, you can just flip through a whole set of cards. If you count correctly then you will end up with a ‘0’ at the end of this exercise.

The first few times may be trial and error, but the more you practice, the faster and more accurate you will become. After a while you can try to count two cards at once, just by looking at the hands. If you practice long enough then you will almost automatically recognize various card combinations and their value. And that’s the great thing about this simple Hi-Lo strategy. It’s very straightforward and easy.

It will not be long before you can apply this simple technique and at the same time play blackjack at normal speed. You need to keep the current value in mind and at the same time focus on the game without drawing attention to yourself.

If you have not yet mastered the counting system by heart and need to think long until you get to the current value, then you will stand out to the dealers and security staff because they are trained to detect counting behaviour.

(2) The True Count

After you have mastered the counting itself, the next step is to know when it’s worthwhile to start staking and how much to bet. As already mentioned, the rule of thumb is that the closer the table is to the end of the deck, the more predictable the outcome.

Here, a new factor comes into play known as ‘True Count’. Divide the running count by the estimated number of remaining decks in the card shoe. This is the part that beginners get confused with.

Let’s look at an example.

The running count is +7 and there are about 4 decks left. The true count would be 7/4 = 1.75. Round that up to 2, keep it simple.

Converting the Running Count into the True Count is about getting a more accurate estimation of whether or not you have an advantage.

These days you won’t find many single-deck games, so it’s likely that you will be playing on a multiple deck table. These can range from two to eight decks so you will have to estimate the number of remaining decks.

One way of determining how many cards have already been dealt with is to look at the discard tray on the table (if there is one). Practice estimating at home by piling decks of cards on top of each other.

Once you have estimated how many decks have been played you then need to subtract this number from the number of decks the game started with. This is the number of decks remaining.

Here is an example for a six-deck game.

You have a running count of 12. You look at the discard tray and see that approximately three decks have been played meaning that there must be still three decks remaining. You divide the running count of 12 by 3 to get a true count of 4.

(3) What to Stake and When

Now it gets interesting…

This is where card counting becomes more art than science. Some blackjack books give rigid rules on how this should be done. However, casino employees are also aware of the published techniques and certain betting patterns can easily betray a card counter.

The key to making money as a card counter is raising your bets when the deck is ‘hot’, and lowering them when the deck is ‘cold’. The variation in size is known as the ‘Betting Spread’. The range of an individual’s betting spread depends on a lot of personal factors such as bank size, comfort level, proficiency in card counting, knowing the rules, etc.

However, in order to avoid undue attention from casino staff a bet spread between 1 and 5 units is recommended. This means that you should bet 1 unit for a +1 count, all neutral counts, and all negative counts. A +2 count means 2 units staked, a +3 count means 3 units, a +4 count means 4 units. Anything over +4 signifies a bet of 5 units. Exceeding 5 units is likely to attract unwanted attention from the casino hierarchy.

The size of the individual unit depends on your preferences. To stay under the radar you should identify a range between table minimum and maximum.

The player must estimate the top end of the count. In other words, how high may the count get in that session? For simplification, we estimate the maximum count at 10. This means that the top end of the player’s personal range is £100, a multiple of £10.

And so on…

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Of course, it becomes even more interesting if the table is only approached when the deck is ‘hot’, but this requires a team of card counters.

This may sound unreal, but anyone who has seen the film ‘21’ (2008), has watched a good, entertaining movie and also witnessed that a team strategy can be successful.

With card counting it is actually possible to gain a decisive advantage over the casino. Many have tried and with great success!

Card Counting Countermeasures

Casinos are not stupid. Although card counting is not legally prohibited or punishable, neither under German law nor in the US, it does not mean that casinos turn a blind eye to card counters.

Some of the more common countermeasures include:

• The number of card packs used in a shoe is increased. Initially, Blackjack was played with just one deck, later with four, and now mostly with six decks
• The shoe is never played to exhaustion. After a quarter or a third of cards are played there is a ‘cut off’ and the shoe is reshuffled.
• The player’s staking choices are limited, for example:
  (a) Double down is only permitted on hard totals of 9, 10, or 11
  (b) No doubling allowed after splitting two cards of the same denomination

The above countermeasures certainly increase the house edge, but card counting players are still able to play winning systems in spite of them.

Therefore, many European casinos now use ‘Shuffle Stars’, which are special card shoes. Played cards are immediately mixed back in with the other cards making each round independent of the next, like in roulette. Hence, card counting has become not only difficult but a thing of the past in most casinos today.

Image: Andresr (Shutterstock)

(1) Disappearance of Arbitrage Opportunities

Arbitrage positions often have a very brief window of opportunity, perhaps between three and 15 minutes, before they disappear from the market.

Furthermore, the greater the number of ‘arbers’ finding and exploiting an ‘arb’, the shorter the arb’s lifespan becomes.

Once an arbitrage opening is identified speed and accuracy are essential to ensure that bets are placed at the required odds within the very short time window, the duration of which is fleeting and unknown.

Possible solutions:

Rapid disappearance of the optimum odds to attain profit from backing (or laying) all outcomes of an event is one of the largest challenges faced by professional arbers.

Experience in combating or avoiding loss making positions in sports arbitrage is the equivalent of possessing the betting equivalent of the ‘holy grail’, and every arber who has this high degree of market knowledge should be considered a master in his field.

• One path to attaining such heights is to specialise in cross market arbitrage, as these transactions are harder to identify for bookmakers and punters alike, reducing the risk they will be found by many others; hence the lifespan of the arb is protected or prolonged.

• Focusing on established bookmakers with both an online and high street presence is also a good idea. In this way, arbs can be compiled using a mixture of online bets from home, and walk-in transactions using the betting shops in your neighbourhood.

  Shops need to publish and make their prices available several days in advance as fixed odds coupons are printed and distributed for walk-in customers. This can certainly present arbitrage situations where all bets can be placed many days in advance of the event (although whether arbers mind having their betting bank tied-up for longer periods such as this is purely a personal and/or financial decision).

  Usually, only on the day of the event will punters be faced with the possibility of arriving at a shop with fixed odds coupon in hand only to be told that the price they have selected has dropped.

In summary, the combination of cross market arbitrage via the larger bookmakers will often present arbitrage opportunities with life spans of much longer than 15 minutes.

“I would like to open an account with your bank.” she says to the bank clerk.

He smiles and replies, “Why of course, Madam, how much would you like to deposit?”…

Image: Anton Brand (Shutterstock)

…“One million pounds!”, says the old lady.

The astonished clerk smiles again but decides to proceed with caution.

“That’s a sizeable sum, Madam, where did you get so much money from?”

The lady is understandably reluctant to answer with so many other bank customers within earshot.

Finally, the clerk decides upon discretion and arranges a private meeting between the lady and the manager of the bank.

After the introductions are over, the bank manager asks the lady, “Madam, where did you get so much money from?”

“It’s the profits from all the winning bets I have placed recently”, she smiles.

The bank manager cannot begin to imagine who this woman is or how she can be such a successful gambler, old and frail as she looks. He contemplates the situation for a few seconds before she looks him in the eye and speaks again…

Image: Anton Brand (Shutterstock)

“I bet you ten thousand pounds that your crown jewels are square shaped!”

Caught completely by surprise, the bank manager almost chokes before replying, “That is quite a ridiculous suggestion, Madam. My gonads are as normal as any other man’s!”

Again, the old lady grins before declaring, “Well, if you’re so sure, then you won’t mind putting your money where your mouth is!”

After a few minutes of discussion with this odd woman the bank manager agrees to the wager, and she promises to return the following day at 10am.

That night, the bank manager is in bed and decides to be on the safe side. He slowly snakes his hand towards his crotch and has a good rummage around. Everything is very normal down there he thinks, not in the least bit square! The old lady cannot possibly win. Reassured, he falls asleep.


The next morning the little old lady reappears at the bank with a smart dressed man in tow. They are ushered together into the manager’s office. She explains to the manager that she has brought her lawyer with her to act as a witness to the financial transaction.

As soon as the formalities are out of the way she exclaims, “Well come on then, let’s see them…both!”

Obligingly, the bank manager drops his trousers and whips out his wedding tackle.

Triumphantly he cries, “There, Madam, as you can see, everything is absolutely normal!”

The woman’s eyes narrow as if to focus more fully on the situation before she says with a playful look on her face,

“Well, they look a little lumpy to me!”

The bank manager’s patience is by now a little stretched and he immediately emphasizes that his meat and two veg are perfectly normal for him.

The old lady counters by saying, “Well, as there is the small matter of ten thousand pounds on the line, I need to be absolutely sure – will you let me feel them, please?”

Image: Anton Brand (Shutterstock)

Aghast at such a suggestion the bank manager considers long and hard what to do.

His children’s school fees are due soon and he could really do with the money.

At last, he reluctantly agrees to the lady’s request.

The elderly woman kneels before him and cradles his balls, yanking them this way and that, leaving him feeling weak at the knees.

Just as she stops, satisfied that nothing more can be done, her lawyer collapses onto his knees and begins to howl and cry, beating the floor with a fist.

“What’s the matter with your lawyer?” the bank manager asks.

“Well…”, says the old woman, “You may have won our bet because your testicles are not square at all, but I bet twenty thousand pounds with my lawyer here that I’d have my local bank manager firmly by the balls today..!”

This is the classic form of sports arbitrage (sure bets) in football betting.

The arbitrage opportunity relies on at least two bookmakers evaluating the same event differently, each offering different odds. Taking advantage of these price differences is the key to creating an arbitrage, or “arb”.

Image: Lisa S. (Shutterstock)

For example, bookmaker ‘A’ offers a price of 2.04 on the ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market, whilst bookmaker ‘B’ is pricing the ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ bet for the same match at 2.08.

This is an arbitrage opportunity, or “surebet”. Both prices return more than even money, and of course one of the bets will definitely be a winner.

To ensure the same profit whatever the outcome, the stake money is weighted on each outcome. With bookmaker ‘A’, 50.49 units are wagered at 2.04 odds; with bookmaker ‘B’, 49.51 units are placed at 2.08 odds.

The total stake is 100 units, and no matter which bet wins, the guaranteed return is 2.99 units (almost 3% profit on the total stake).

Sometimes, “arbs” with 5% or more return may be found in the market, although larger arbs occur more seldom in this “classic arbitrage/surebet market”.

The situation described above is the easy option. For more advanced gamblers who enjoy thinking outside the box there is another type of arbitrage opportunity available, and these arbs often achieve a higher return. This of course relies on knowing where to look…

(2) Cross Market Arbitrage Betting

Due to the explosive growth of the Internet and the increase of betting customers, bookmakers now offer more and more betting options.

This means that the market is not limited to the historical standard sports betting markets such as gambling on the outcome of a match (home, draw, or away), or on goals; there are now many more betting choices within a single game and thus more arbitrage openings.

For some of the more popular matches there are often over 100 different bet types available in the market.

This enormous coverage opens up cross-market arbitrages opportunities but, in order to find them, creative thinking is required.

The Big Advantage of Cross Market Arbitraging

Many cross market arbitrages are not obvious; therefore, the opportunity remains viable for a much longer time. Surebets between bookmakers in only one betting market have a limited lifespan, sometimes only minutes as demand and supply in the market fluctuates.

It is said that there are about 60,000 different combinations of arbitrages using cross market methods, and this means that everyone seriously interested in arbitrage will certainly be able to identify a preferred strategy for identifying unusual arbitrage groupings…

Some Cross Market Arbitrage Examples:

• Team 1: More than 0.5 goals
  Team 2: Clean Sheet
• Match result: Draw
  Draw no bet: Team 1
  Asian Handicap Team 2: +/- 0
• Total goals: 1
  Total goals: 2
  Total goals: Over 2.5
  Time of first goal: No Goals (or 0-0)
• Match result: Draw
  Draw no bet: Team 1
  HT/FT: Team 1/Team 2
  HT/FT: Draw/Team 2
  HT/FT: Team 2/Team 2

Caution! Not everyone bookmaker has the same bets on offer, and with some, a bet is not necessarily known by the same name as it is with others. Equally, the same bets may be subject to different conditions with different bookmakers.

Cross Market Arbitraging Requires Thinking outside the Box

Cross market arbitraging does not only entail placing straight forward bets, e.g. final score: 0-0, goals by only one team, and both teams to score. There are plenty of cross market arbitrages such as: Match result = draw, Draw no bet: team 1, and Asian Handicap team 2: +/- 0.

In this case, if the match finishes drawn the stakes for bets 2 and 3 are returned, but if team 1 or 2 win the game then the stakes for the other 2 bets are lost. This certainly requires some thinking and accurate calculating before committing to place the bets for a guaranteed profit.

Recommended Sports Arbitrage Services

If you fancy a taste of cross-market arbitraging, then consider subscribing with an automated arb finding service. Unfortunately, none of the really good sites are free, and usually there are also no free trials.

However, please note the one service we will document below have their software available for free download to demonstrate arbs in the range up to 0.6% (Rebel Betting). Of course, profits this small are hardly worthwhile, so you will have to subscribe to see the higher arbs.

Arbitrage services are not cheap and one of the reasons is certainly the extremely high programming effort required, which does not stop after the software has been developed. You will always see new bookmakers and/or new betting types added to the armoury at your disposal.

On the other hand, there is a limited customer base which is interested in purchasing niche products such as these. The competition between arb finding software producers is high, and many of these providers share a relatively small market of perhaps just 20,000 serious customers worldwide.

Rebel Betting: Different packages available at different costs to suit your budget.

Rebelbetting provide a wide range of cross market bets and also update them as soon as they are detected. Their tutorials are comprehensive and ultimately they are easy to use.

If you thought cross market arbs were limited to three or four markets then you may be surprised to see some opportunities flagged up involving up to 20 bets on the same game.

Cross market arbitrage is a real science and turns betting from a form of gambling into pure investing.

A Trader’s Point Of View – Day 3: 3 October, 2012

On 3rd October the Widow posted the following bets on the German Betfair blog:

Value bet recommendations:
Back FT: Manchester City (odds: 1.97; ‘true’ odds: 1.88, probability: 53.3%)
Back FT: Under 3.5 goals (odds: 1.55; ‘true’ odds: 1.52, probability: 65.8%)

…but she also posted some stats to back these recommendations up

Man City’s last 30 home games (all competitions)
Man City wins: 24 (80%), Draws: 4 (13.3%), Away Wins: 2 (6.7%)

The early goal didn’t come so there was no value for me in backing under 3.5 goals. So, when the German side took the lead on 60 minutes, I saw my opportunity to lay them cheaply @ 1.50, giving me 30+ minutes for Man City to draw level or go on to win.

As a trader I’m more inclined to lay a team rather than back one, but only if the price is right. My reasoning behind this is that if I lay a team, it keeps the draw on my side and I then have two chances of a winning trade. But I’m not adverse to backing a team either.

On the 89th minute the Widow’s stats, showing only 6.7% of recent games lost at home by Man City didn’t disappoint, as the blue side of Manchester were awarded a penalty and ultimately drew the game.

My patience was rewarded and I closed the trade out for a profit:

Until next time.
Keep it green!

If you are serious about making money from matched betting then you will need to be completely familiar with the range of transactions required in different situations. For example, the free bet you are trying to liberate could be a stake-returned or stake-not-returned offer, or it could be straightforward bonus cash added to your opening deposit. However the incentive is structured, you are going to need to calculate without fault the various stakes required for both the bookmaker back bet and the betting exchange lay bet in order to convert the myriad freebies into hard cash without risking anything.

There are various tools freely available across the Net and every matched betting connoisseur will have their own personal favourite. We prefer the ‘KISS’ philosophy (Keep It Simple, Stupid) when approaching anything for the first time and our preferred matched betting calculator is in our opinion both the easiest to operate and visually speaking, the easiest to understand at a glance when perhaps speed is of the essence.

The specialist matched betting site, Freebets4all.com, offers a couple of invaluable tools; we’ll describe their ‘Automatcher’ in Part 5, but for now we will limit our discussion to their matched betting calculator.

This is a powerful tool requiring minimal input. The most important thing to remember is to check the correct type of bet at the top of the calculator. Then it’s just a question of filling in the 4 blank fields.

The ‘Stake in bookmaker‘ is the ‘initial’ or ‘qualifying’ bet exposure or, the value of the free bet you are trying to cash-in with a profit bet.

The ‘Back odds‘ are the bookmaker odds for your chosen event and at which you are going to place the ‘Stake in bookmaker’.

The ‘Lay odds‘ are the betting exchange odds for the same event found in sites such as Betfair, Betdaq, Smarkets and WBX.

The ‘Exchange commission‘ is the charge levied by the betting exchanges for the privilege of using their trading platform. Betfair and Betdaq tend to charge 5% unless qualifying for lower rates through bonus points or special event offers (Betfair ‘premium charges’ are discussed here). Smarkets is currently offering its service for just 2% commission (although you pay a fee every time you deposit with a card). WBX’s rates vary between 3 and 5% depending upon market strength and loyalty factors.

Once you’ve populated all the spaces check again that you have the correct type of bet and press ‘calculate’. You will then receive a screen that looks something like this (Click to enlarge; opens in a new tab):

Freebets4all Matched Betting Calculator Screenshot

The screenshot shows an ‘initial bet’ or ‘qualifying bet’ example, a transaction you will invariably need to perform many times with different bookmakers in order to earn their free bets.

In this example, say we need to make an initial bet with our own money before we can obtain a 100% matched deposit free bet. In this case the free bet we are going after is to the value of £25, which means we need to ‘bet through’ our initial deposit of £25 before the bookmaker credits our account with a free bet of the same amount (i.e. ‘matched’ deposit).

Of course, we want to cover the bet so that no money, or as little as possible, is lost in order to earn the free bet for nothing. The calculator shows that our chosen stake of £25 placed at odds of 3.2 wins a total of £55. If we consequently find odds to lay the same outcome in a betting exchange of 3.15 then the calculator tells us to ‘lay’ at a stake of £25.81. The liability of the lay bet is shown as £55.49, which will be covered by the £55 won with the back bet (net loss £0.49).

Image: Aleksandr Hunta (Shutterstock)

With the exchange commission rate set at 5%, a net £24.52 (£25.81 less 5%) will be won if it is the lay bet which wins; the back bet will lose £25 (net loss £0.48).

So, as you can see, whichever bet wins, a small loss will be incurred in order to ‘earn’ the free bet, which we should certainly expect to cash to the tune of at least 75% of its amount.

With the aid of Automatchers (see Part 5), it is sometimes possible to find situations where backing both sides of an event in the fashion described above can lead to a profit. This is called arbitrage or an ‘arb’. This is icing on the cake helping to maximise the amount to be made from all of the free bet transactions.

Whichever type of bet is chosen, the most advantageous outcome always results from finding lay odds as far below the back odds as possible.

We advise you to play around with the calculator and practice with it until employing it in your first matched betting transaction with real money. There are others to be found in the Net but this one provides everything we need in a simple and easy to understand format, which we have not seen elsewhere.

Go To: Part 3: Matched Betting Check List
Go To: Part 2: Preparation for Matched betting
Go To: Part 1: Introduction to Matched Betting

In this section of our matched betting tutorial, we look at some of the essential things you need to know and be in control of when you sit down and begin playing with real money together with some recommendations from our own experience.

Image: Feng Yu (Shutterstock)

1. Before opening a new bookmaker account:

• Is the bonus restricted territorially? In other words, are you resident in a country where the bonus is not applicable and therefore wasting your time opening the account?
• Do your homework: Is the firm reputable? Use a review site such as www.sportsbookreview.com and get an up-to-date appraisal of the company you are about to hand over your hard-earned money to; search for any negative comments online about the bookmaker in question and if in doubt, kick it out.
• Choose a different username and password for every account for your own security and record this information manually (i.e. not on your computer).
• Some bookmakers are linked, such as bwin, Gamebookers and Partybets, or Tipico and Sportingbet, and we recommended concluding each transaction involving a franchise bookie before moving onto another member of the same franchise (i.e. keep a low profile and don’t play with more than one company in a group at a time).
• Read through the terms and conditions of the cashier process (what methods do they accept; what is the minimum deposit and withdrawal amount; are there any charges for deposits/withdrawals which will ameliorate the benefit of the bonus?)
• If you can, copy and paste the terms and conditions into a document and save it for possible future dispute resolution. If the T’s and C’s can’t be copied for some reason, open a Word document, use the PRTSC function on your keyboard (near the ‘F’ keys), go into the Word document and press the keys CTRL and V together to copy the screenprint you have just performed into a saveable format.

2. Read through the terms and conditions of every bonus or free bet offer in minute detail:

• Is a bonus code required (from elsewhere in the Net) or is it a deposit bonus or a free bet to be ‘earned’? Some codes are freely given on the bookmaker’s own site whilst others are available on affiliated sites elsewhere on the Net. In our experience, the affiliate codes usually promise greater riches than the bookmaker’s own basic bonuses, but usually the terms are far more complicated and require you to bet higher amounts of money or more frequently in order to earn the bonus. It’s all a ploy to maximise the income of the affiliate and sometimes what they promise isn’t quite what transpires. If in doubt, stick to the bookmaker’s offer.
• What exactly do you have to do to ‘earn’ the bonus?
• Is it a ‘stake returned’ or ‘stake not returned’ bonus?
• Is there a limit on the number of days you have to deposit the qualifying stake into the account after registration?
• What is the time scale in which to place my qualifying bet and subsequent ‘free’ bet?
• What are the minimum odds the bookmaker requires each bet to be made at (differs wildly from bookmaker to bookmaker)
• Copy and paste the terms and conditions into a document and save it for possible future dispute resolution.

3. Before placing any bets:

• Ensure you are logged into both the bookmaker and betting exchange sites simultaneously and have the chosen event ready on both sites for a fast transaction even if liquidity is good at the exchange (to reduce the chance of the lay odds from rising and reducing your eventual profit from the transaction).
• Use a matched betting calculator to work out the lay bet stake required for either the qualifying or profit bet, whichever it may be.
• Before placing the bookmaker bet check the liquidity in the exchange: is there enough money being offered in the exchange to lay-off 100% of the back bet at or close to your desired price?
• Always place the bookmaker bet first.
• Place the bookmaker back bet and quickly refer to the matched betting calculator to check the lay stake required and also the liability it will generate.
• Place the lay bet quickly and leave both receipts ‘open’ on your screen until you have recorded the bets in your spreadsheet.
• Always leave plenty of time before the kick-off in which to correct errors.
• Check both the bookmaker and betting exchange bet logs to ensure that everything is in order before leaving the sites.
• Check the bet logs again.

4. Advanced:

• If you are entirely happy and comfortable with the concept of ‘arbing’ then this is a process you may find faster and more financially strategic to extract money remaining in your bookmaker accounts rather than withdrawing it back to your credit card, e-wallet or bank account. Receiving money back in the bank account takes anything between one and five working days, which of course, places this sum into limbo. Arbing the bookmaker balance until the bookmaker bet eventually loses is more efficient as the cash effectively just transfers instantly into the betting exchange float, along with added profits. If you are not happy with ‘arbing’ or waiting for a suitable opportunity, then go along the withdrawal route.
• There are some very good in-play opportunities to achieve chunky price differences between the bookmaker’s live odds and those in the betting exchange. However, we would advise only ever performing this type of transaction at half-time in a game, giving yourself plenty of time to make the transaction comfortably, as anything else is in our eyes equivalent to gambling, which is not what matched betting is about.

In the coming parts, we will explore the constituent elements of the matched betting process including matched betting calculators and automatching sites, which are invaluable in saving time and making the whole business as efficient as possible.

Go Forwards To: Part 4: Matched Betting Tools: Calculators
Go Back To: Part 2: Preparation for Matched betting
Go Back To: Part 1: Introduction to Matched Betting