Tag Archives: football betting
Impact of the ‘Overround’ on Accumulators, Multiple Bets, and Parlays
Betting odds are supposed to reflect the probability (statistical expectation) that a particular event will happen.
Image: Elnur (Shutterstock)
Because bookmakers are profit-making enterprises who offer bets on the market, it is understandable...
UCL Final: Bayern Munich v. Chelsea – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips
All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap...
Understand Odds: Cup Finals and International Tournaments, played at neutral venues
Both sides of the coin…
The ‘true’, ‘fair’ or ‘zero’ odds are all synonyms for those odds which exactly reflect the statistical expectation of an event. For example, the ‘true’ odds for the...
Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 159 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/04/2012
After five months of writing match previews and bet recommendations both in the English and German language versions of Betfair’s blog, it is time to review the results and ultimately compare them with Betfair’s own odds (i.e. predicted...
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals.
Image: koya979 (Shutterstock)
The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches.
From...
Betfair Premium Charge Part 2
Death Of The Dream:
So, my case scenario revolves around the fact that you are statistically more likely to belong to the 99.5% majority of Betfair customers who have a tendency to lose more bets than you win. If so, you can rest assured that...
Betfair Premium Charge Part 1
The Naked Truth:
I had always believed that if I found one good strategy (or hopefully more), I could sit back and earn an easy, tax-free living from betting, whilst at the same time having fun operating this blog and explaining to other people...
Is Football Betting Safer than Stock Market Trading? A Few Thoughts…
In the German language version of my article, “An observation about stock trading and football betting” a comment was recently received from a keen observer (translated as follows):
“Companies can go bust. Then the entire share...
Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 109 bets, from 07/12/2011 to 31/03/2012
Patience and persistence is paying off. Since December 2011, Soccerwidow has published regular match previews and betting recommendations mostly for English Premier League and German Bundesliga 1 games in the German language Betfair blog.
For...
Similarities and Differences between Stock Trading and Football Betting
Analysing Investments
In the stock market there is a rule of thumb: Buy shares when the stock chart heads in a direction from bottom left to top right, and don’t burn your fingers when the curve is falling from top left to bottom right.
Whether...