Tag Archives: odds calculation
Who’s Going to Win the 50th German Bundesliga Title?
With just under 3 weeks to go until the start of the “Golden Jubilee” Bundesliga season we take a look at the 18 teams in contention for the title and statistically assess their chances of winning the Meisterschale next May.
Defending...
Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012
The end of the month has arrived once again and following 29 match analyses encompassing 67 more value bet recommendations, it is time for our usual reckoning.
June was indeed an exceptional month realising a yield of 16.4%. The formulas and...
Are Odds at Betting Exchanges Always Better than with Bookmakers?
The answer to this question is unequivocally YES and only in rare or extenuating circumstances are odds in betting exchanges priced less than with a bookmaker.
The reason is simple: If the ‘back’ price for an event with a bookmaker...
Impact of the ‘Overround’ on Accumulators, Multiple Bets, and Parlays
Betting odds are supposed to reflect the probability (statistical expectation) that a particular event will happen.
Image: Elnur (Shutterstock)
Because bookmakers are profit-making enterprises who offer bets on the market, it is understandable...
Football Betting Permutations: 5 Cup Finals in 5 Days
Slim chance for the favourites?
It has been a busy week in the world of football with the conclusions of many major tournaments across Europe, including the jewel in the crown, the UEFA Champions League final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea.
Having...
Understand Odds: Cup Finals and International Tournaments, played at neutral venues
Both sides of the coin…
The ‘true’, ‘fair’ or ‘zero’ odds are all synonyms for those odds which exactly reflect the statistical expectation of an event. For example, the ‘true’ odds for the...
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals.
Image: koya979 (Shutterstock)
The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches.
From...
Similarities and Differences between Stock Trading and Football Betting
Analysing Investments
In the stock market there is a rule of thumb: Buy shares when the stock chart heads in a direction from bottom left to top right, and don’t burn your fingers when the curve is falling from top left to bottom right.
Whether...
Sharp Betting: Sports Betting as a Permanent Source of Income
Fortune Favours the Educated:
There are only three guaranteed ways of making regular, long-term profits from betting:
Arbitrage
Trading
(Both requiring large numbers of transactions for a steady drip-feed)
‘Sharp’ or ‘Value’...
What Does ‘Form’ Mean in Football?
Please Discuss…
Now and again Soccerwidow receives enquiries as to whether we consider ‘form’ in our match analyses and value bet recommendations.
The reader will have to excuse our increasing ignorance of the concept of ‘form’...
