Tag Archives: probabilities
The Science of Calculating Winning and Losing Streaks
This article is a short journey to the theme ‘risk management’ as we are often asked…
How high should be a starting bank?
Is 5,000 units enough?
Well, there is no standard answer to this question. It all depends on the individual...
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
Becoming a successful bettor requires not only a deep understanding of odds calculation but, it is also necessary to understand how the market works and especially how the bookmakers operate.
Of course, bookmakers are in the business of setting...
How to Calculate Losing Streaks & Optimal Bankroll
In this article we will teach you to determine how large your starting bank needs to be to avoid bankruptcy by calculating the longest losing streaks that can be expected from your chosen betting strategy.
What is Bankroll Management?
Bankroll...
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
Every year we publish HDAFU simulation tables (Home, Draw, Away, Favourites, Underdogs), which model profit & losses for five seasons in each featured league for developing profitable betting systems.
Today’s article discusses the...
Combinatorics and Probability Theory in Football Betting
Introduction to Combinatorics and Probability Theory
This article is a step-by-step guide explaining how to compute the probability that, for example, exactly 4 out of 6 picks win, or how to calculate the likelihood that at least 4 of 6 bets...
The Gambler’s Ruin Explained – Fair Coin Flipping
One of the phenomenons of probability is Gambler’s Ruin. The most common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected zero value to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent...
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Introduction
The terms probability, expectation, likelihood, chance and hit rate are all closely related, and express more or less the same thing. The difference is that before a game one talks about ‘chance’, ‘probability’,...
How to Calculate Average Odds in Football Betting
Sometimes it is necessary to figure out the average odds from a set of betting odds which can then be used as the basis for further calculations. For example, computing deviation and variance.
When using odds in European format (decimal) you...
Using Poker Odds Calculators and Moving Beyond Psychology
Being a success at the poker table takes a dash of luck, a smattering of psychology and a solid understanding of statistics.
Since the growth of online poker caused the average IQ of poker players to increase dramatically it has become even...
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion
A question we often receive from readers is why the Value Bet Detector requires 10 years’ head-to-head (H2H) data and why it is optimised to address matches where there has been a minimum of six H2H meetings in this time frame.
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